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What A Gloomy GOP Campaign Guru Just Told Me
Business Insider via American Enterpise Insititute ^ | 08/27/2012 | James Pethoukoukis

Posted on 08/27/2012 9:37:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Mitt Romney up by a point over Barack Obama 47% to 46%. (46% is a truly horrible number for an incumbent.) But it is going to take more than a few narrow polls to change what I sense to be the widespread mood here that Romney is very narrowly losing, but the race remains winnable.

So it was with great interest that I listened to the thoughts a longtime, much-respected GOP operative, whom I will nickname the Gloomy Guru. Among GG’s observation:

Romney will win North Carolina

Ohio is iffy in GG’s view, though one very smart, very connected Ohio GOPer thinks the state is lost

New Mexico is lost

Colorado looking good

Pennsylvania is fool’s gold, not going to happen

Wisconsin can happen

Virginia will be a dogfight, is critical

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Mexico
KEYWORDS: 2012; elections; obama; romney
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1 posted on 08/27/2012 9:37:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I’d really like to identify this so called Gloomy Guru.

My first thought is — Ed Rollins.


2 posted on 08/27/2012 9:39:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

10 weeks away and Romney has barely spent a penny? What a bunch of nonsense. I guess this what passes for news these days.

If Romney opens up 5 points nationally, the state polling is worthless, he’ll win 320 electoral votes


3 posted on 08/27/2012 9:39:57 AM PDT by jb729
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree that Pennsylvania is fool’s gold. But there’s no way Obama wins Virginia again. Virginia is fool’s gold for the Democrats. Obama’s win there was a fluke.


4 posted on 08/27/2012 9:39:57 AM PDT by GunRunner (***Not associated with any criminal actions anonymus by the ATF***)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Akin thing is KILLING US, folks...

All it does is reinforce the media-created stereotype of the “Stoopid Republican!”.


5 posted on 08/27/2012 9:39:59 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree that Pennsylvania is fool’s gold. But there’s no way Obama wins Virginia again. Virginia is fool’s gold for the Democrats. Obama’s win there was a fluke.


6 posted on 08/27/2012 9:40:11 AM PDT by GunRunner (***Not associated with any criminal actions anonymus by the ATF***)
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To: GunRunner

Disagree on Pennsylvania being fool’s gold. The Voter ID law + Pennsylvania is like Florida-lite when it comes to seniors. Lots of very old people here who do not like Obamacare.


7 posted on 08/27/2012 9:41:10 AM PDT by jb729
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To: SeekAndFind

How can Romney win if Ohio is teetering towards a loss?


8 posted on 08/27/2012 9:42:05 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: SeekAndFind

Charlie Crist lol


9 posted on 08/27/2012 9:42:27 AM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yup. I’d wager Rollins. An inept campaigner and always the Eeyore of the GOP-e.


10 posted on 08/27/2012 9:43:35 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Funny but creepy!)
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To: GunRunner

You are right. I do believe that VA is fools gold for the dems. Since 2008, Virginia voters have been correcting their mistake and been voting in droves GOP.


11 posted on 08/27/2012 9:47:02 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: tcrlaf
Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
12 posted on 08/27/2012 9:47:46 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: KC_Conspirator

Doesn’t ole Virg give Baraq a shot at a Clintonian plurality win there?


13 posted on 08/27/2012 9:48:51 AM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: jb729

Hey..Romney has to have more because of the Machine Democrats have put in place. Alot of people are worried.


14 posted on 08/27/2012 9:48:59 AM PDT by dalebert
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To: SeekAndFind

I’d say we are at the starting line right about now.

Its hard to tell how this will shake out.

I keep looking at the long running approval ratings for Barry...if they are under 50%, its difficult for him to pull it out on election day.


15 posted on 08/27/2012 9:50:20 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: Shadow44
How can Romney win if Ohio is teetering towards a loss?

Colorado + Wisconsin = 19

Ohio = 18

Lots of possible permutations on the electoral map, mostly around:

Wisconsin, Iowa, OIHO, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia

16 posted on 08/27/2012 9:51:16 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: nascarnation

Oh with that other doosh? Maybe, its hard to measure.


17 posted on 08/27/2012 9:52:06 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SeekAndFind
Funny. The "insiders" must not have much inside info. First, a poll yesterday here in OH among REGISTERED voters is a tie (Dems oversampled again, this time by 5). So it's a pretty small but solid Romney lead here.

Second, MI continues to trend Romney. Latest poll there shows not only Mitt winning, but Hoekstra as well. (BTW, Mandel is also tied with Brown here in OH). Now look: it is virtually impossible for Republican senate candidates to be running higher than the top of the ticket across the board. Ain't happening. So if Mandel and Hoekstra are doing that well, you know Romney is in great shape.

18 posted on 08/27/2012 9:52:16 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind
Hmm.

So it comes down to placating illegals again. A guy squats in your vacation home while you're away. When you finally return, the guy get arrested, but his children are allowed to stay in the house. After all, why should they be punished for something the parent did? Oh yeah, they need to be taken care of now too.

19 posted on 08/27/2012 9:52:48 AM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: tcrlaf

Oh, that Akin thing?

That’s so “last week”.


20 posted on 08/27/2012 9:52:59 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: jb729

He should spend money there in order to force Obama to defend it. But if Romney wins Pennsylvania the race will be a historic landslide overall.


21 posted on 08/27/2012 9:53:08 AM PDT by GunRunner (***Not associated with any criminal actions anonymus by the ATF***)
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To: SeekAndFind
Business Insider is run by a far left wing Obama crony. Listening to them for campaign advice is the equivalent of tuning into Tokyo Rose in 1942 to find out how the US war effort is going.
22 posted on 08/27/2012 9:54:06 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Shadow44

OH is not “teetering toward a loss.” Yesterday’s poll was a “tie,” but only achieved with a poll of registered voters and a 5% Dem oversample. Translation: Romney up in OH, MI, WI, IA, and FL. If this guy says CO is safe, that’s the best news I’ve heard in years. Now, if VA is safe, this election is over an it’s only a matter of how many EVs Romney gets.


23 posted on 08/27/2012 9:54:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tcrlaf

No he isn’t. Be nice if the doom and gloom choir tried actually reading the polls instead of letting the Enemy media tell them what to think


24 posted on 08/27/2012 9:55:36 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: SeekAndFind

What I have been seeing as of late is way, way too much oversampling just to make Obama look popular.


25 posted on 08/27/2012 9:55:48 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: GunRunner

Actualy not true. I’ve read many a report that the thing with VA is the demographics have radically changed. There are so many fewer “Virginians” (my birthplace). It is now, mostly transplants from other states who are decidedly liberal. Sadly, VA is trending blue. VA will be close this time I agree. But I’d be quite surprised (based on what I read and the trend lines) if Romney takes it. Sad but true.. The “real Virginians” are now getting fewer.


26 posted on 08/27/2012 9:57:04 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: SeekAndFind

I have a Democratic insider telling me Obama is toast according to internal polls. Oh look, I’m a reporter.


27 posted on 08/27/2012 9:59:42 AM PDT by Starstruck (It's all Obama's fault)
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To: SeekAndFind
New Mexico is lost

Afraid so:
Rasmussen has it 52-38 with 9 points for “some other candidate,” likely Gary Johnson. This poll was taken last Tuesday, August 21.

28 posted on 08/27/2012 9:59:54 AM PDT by CedarDave (Palin/Ryan -- both should have been at the top of the ticket and not play second fiddle to GOPe)
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To: SeekAndFind

read the comments at the article.

the people there all seemed to impute this to Ed Rollins. Everyone of them said Rollins was incompetent and self serving.


29 posted on 08/27/2012 10:01:27 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: Lazamataz

Rollins was mentioned right out of the box in the comment section following the column.

However, Ryan is propping up this ticket single handedly. You can’t pry a plan out of Romney’s mouth, but maybe Ryan can force a conservative commitment out of him, one of plan and substance. Weighted polls or not, Romney appears to barely have his britches on and should be polling a lot better.


30 posted on 08/27/2012 10:06:32 AM PDT by RitaOK
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To: Shadow44
Because Ohio isn't teetering. The problem is all these "experts" look at polling based on the 2008 turn out model. 2008 was a very abnormally good year for Dems. Their enthusiasm was way way up and their registration was way way way up. in 2012 both their registration and their enthusiasm is way down.

Given those structural defects in the polling the fact that the best O can do is a very small lead or a tie is going into the full scale campaign season after the conventions is really really bad news for 0.

He should be comfortably ahead at this point. He took his best shot over the summer and epically failed. I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.

31 posted on 08/27/2012 10:07:14 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Lazamataz

maybe Jeb Bush. He is one of the mexican toe suckers. Why dont we just give the whole F-ing country to mexico its gonna end up that way anyway. I am sick to death of the calls to pander to the invaders.


32 posted on 08/27/2012 10:07:21 AM PDT by Breto (The Establishment party is killing our country)
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To: SeekAndFind

One of my old Commanders used to talk to me about “three o’clock in the morning bravery”. It’s easier to be brave when it’s noon on a sunny day and you’ve had a good nights sleep and your belly is full. We’re coming down to the end of this race. The Democrat press and some turncoats want us to believe the Democrats have this race in the bag. They don’t. Quit standing around wringing your hands about what the Democrats say. Donate some money to the Republicans. Convince some people to vote Republican. Provide rides for Republicans to the polls. I watched centric last night. They are advertising to the black Democrats “Vote as if your life depends on it!” Folks, that’s desperation. Close ranks.....be strong.....present a united front to the enemy.....take heart.....we hold the high ground.....they are wrong on every issue, and Obama’s dismal performance PROVES it. Anyone can talk a good fight....Obama’s been in the ring running around the ropes waiting for the bell to ring.....he has proven he can’t do the job.


33 posted on 08/27/2012 10:08:34 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: RitaOK
You got it exactly backwards. O should be 10points+ ahead at this point. 0, not Romney, is the one is a whole lot of trouble.

The problem is all these “experts” look at polling based on the 2008 turn out model. 2008 was a very abnormally good year for Dems. Their enthusiasm was way way up and their registration was way way way up. in 2012 both their registration and their enthusiasm is way down.

Given those structural defects in the polling the fact that the best O can do is a very small lead or a tie is going into the full scale campaign season after the conventions is really really bad news for 0.

He should be comfortably ahead at this point. He took his best shot over the summer and epically failed. I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.

34 posted on 08/27/2012 10:09:06 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: LS

You always seem to know what your talking about,so I trust your judgment. I just find it slightly unnerving that polls don’t show OH and FL as in the Romney column as they should be.

Of course, that’s exactly what the MSM wants to do to conservative voters. Hopefully Romney will get a big bounce from the convention and the polling will be too much to cook anymore.


35 posted on 08/27/2012 10:09:16 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: MNJohnnie
I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.

Absent an October surprise or Obama and thugs turn it violent.

36 posted on 08/27/2012 10:10:00 AM PDT by IamConservative (Well done is better than well said. - Ben Franklin)
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To: RitaOK

Wait until Labor Day comes, when the campaign goes into high gear.

Just saw Rep. Ryan in a send-off speech in WI, very strong and forceful. He did say Catholic Republican.


37 posted on 08/27/2012 10:10:49 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Right VA is trending Blue which is why they just elected a hard cored Conservative like McDonnell Gov.


38 posted on 08/27/2012 10:11:10 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Starstruck

I’m inclined to believe your contact - just look at Mika on Morning Joe lately, behaving near clinically depressed. She, with her direct line to the White House, with her cellphone lighting up to rebut some Republican point made by a guest of Joe’s.


39 posted on 08/27/2012 10:16:17 AM PDT by RitaOK
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To: tcrlaf
The Akin thing is KILLING US, folks...

All it does is reinforce the media-created stereotype of the “Stoopid Republican!”.

I agree. It is absolutely outrageous to me that Akin won't step down, and that Huckabee (and some Freepers) have been defending him.

Akin actually seems to be enjoying all of the added attention. He's the most clueless conservative candidate to come along since Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell...

40 posted on 08/27/2012 10:18:29 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: "ABO"/Ryan 2012)
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To: SeekAndFind

Consider this:

Year: 2004 Proposition 200, an Arizona state initiative passed with 56% of the vote, it requires individuals to produce proof of citizenship before they may register to vote or apply for public benefits in Arizona.

Opposition to Prop 200 was bipartisan:
Senator John McCain (R), Senator Jon Kyl (R), Governor Janet Napolitano (D), the Arizona Republican Party, the Arizona Democratic Party, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, the AFL-CIO, and other elected officials and organizations were all opposed to “Protect Arizona Now”.

Prop 200 won the support of 47 percent of the state’s Hispanic citizens.


41 posted on 08/27/2012 10:18:52 AM PDT by donna (This is the age of Republican-Feminism. "Feel right” has replaced being right!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rush covering this now.


42 posted on 08/27/2012 10:18:56 AM PDT by CedarDave (Palin/Ryan -- both should have been at the top of the ticket and not play second fiddle to GOPe)
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To: Shadow44
How can Romney win if Ohio is teetering towards a loss?

He probably could not. Ohio is generally about 2 points more GOP than the national average.

With that said, if Romney won all the Bush 2004 states except Ohio but won Wisconsin, he'd win.

43 posted on 08/27/2012 10:19:18 AM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rush is quoting this now.


44 posted on 08/27/2012 10:19:48 AM PDT by clintonh8r (Happy to be represented by Lt. Col. Allen West)
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To: SeekAndFind

45 posted on 08/27/2012 10:21:56 AM PDT by McGruff (Support your local Republican candidates. They are our last line of defense.)
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To: RIghtwardHo
Virginia will also have a third party party spoiler candidate, Virgil Goode. A lot of time will be spent projecting where his votes will come from.
46 posted on 08/27/2012 10:22:02 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: SeekAndFind

So if we lose with our Mittens, the issue will be all those Hispanic votes he could have won if only he were more open about his support for amnesty?

What, might that have swung the Hispanic vote by 5 or 10% at most? (Despite, that is, the other party promising them affirmative advantaged, protected status in perpetuity!)

And it would bring in a baseline of 10 million new voters that the Dems could count on by a 3-to-1 ratio, only to grow over time?

Gloomy Gurus seem to believe they can get people to look beyond the simple math of their argument—and yet they can’t get our populace to kick Obama out of office?


47 posted on 08/27/2012 10:22:35 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: blueunicorn6

What a great commander! I concede the point also.


48 posted on 08/27/2012 10:22:58 AM PDT by RitaOK
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To: MNJohnnie

VA has odd year state elections, which tend to produce GOP governors due the different issues and turnout models. This will be an even year election, coupled with a Presidential election coupled with the Black incumbent running for reelect. There will be massive turnout in Richmond and Hampton areas. The last set of VA polls I saw had the race even despite a 50/50 split in Blue NoVA (which the Dema have generally been carrying by a much wider margin). That shows the level of offset due to Richmond and Hampton Roads.

On top of that you now have Goode in the race, who will siphon off Conservatives who would have held their noses and voted Romney.

Over the last 16 years I’ve lived in Falls Church, Burke and Herndon, and have followed all the elections closely. VA, IMHO, is going to fall somewhere between a squeaker for Romney and a solid win for Obama.


49 posted on 08/27/2012 10:25:20 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: LS

Anyone know what the breakout was in 2008 in Ohio? (e.g., how many Dems votes vs. Reps). Obama won the national vote by 7.27 IIRC, but Ohio only by 4 something, meaning if the popular vote is close, one would expect Romney to win. In 2004, Bush won by 1.5% nationally, but took Ohio by more than that (2.1%). In general, the Midwest has been trending somewhat GOP. It’s hard to see losing Ohio, unless Obama wins the national popular vote.


50 posted on 08/27/2012 10:26:34 AM PDT by TomEwall
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