[MNJohnnie]

Because Ohio isn't teetering. The problem is all these "experts" look at polling based on the 2008 turn out model. 2008 was a very abnormally good year for Dems. Their enthusiasm was way way up and their registration was way way way up. in 2012 both their registration and their enthusiasm is way down.

Given those structural defects in the polling the fact that the best O can do is a very small lead or a tie is going into the full scale campaign season after the conventions is really really bad news for 0.

He should be comfortably ahead at this point. He took his best shot over the summer and epically failed. I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.

[IamConservative]

I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.

Absent an October surprise or Obama and thugs turn it violent.