Skip to comments.Why the weak economy hasnít (yet) doomed Obama [set BARFCON to Level 3]
Posted on 08/27/2012 11:30:17 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
Why isn’t Mitt Romney winning by now, given the painful sluggishness of the recovery, upside-down right-track-wrong-track numbers, and Obama’s high disapproval on the economy?
For many analysts, that’s the key question. Charlie Cook has decided Romney is not leading because he failed to develop a positive vision of himself. Sean Trende, meanwhile, says the answer is that the economy isn’t as bad as it was in 1980, or even in 2008.
Here’s my own unscientific answer. It’s grounded in a nuance I believe is central to the Obama campaign’s understanding of the race: The distinction between whether voters have decided Obama has failed, or whether they have decided he has merely disappointed them by falling short of expectations, an outcome these voters have come to see as understandable, given the circumstances.
Republicans will scoff at this distinction. To them, the idea that voters have decided Obama is an abject failure is as self-evident as the color of the sky. One GOP strategist captured this well: “If you’re just telling people that Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing, you’re not telling them anything they don’t already know.”
But this may reflect what Jonathan Bernstein has described as the “conservative closed information feedback loop,” in which the widespread presumption that swing voters see Obama in the same terms conservatives do precludes a clear-eyed assement of real voter perceptions. To be clear, undecided voters may still end up deciding Obama’s failure is sufficiently evident that it merits casting him out. But it’s not clear they have decided he failed yet, and dismissing this as a factor misses what may be the real reason the economy has yet to doom Obama — and why he may be able to prevail in spite of it.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Could it be that he’s not leading in the polls because a good number of the polls are designed to show him not leading?
When 50+% of the country cashes some sort of federal check, why are we surprised? If your not working, the economy does not affect you!
I may be too much of a political junkie, but I think that the scenario is clear and the logic is solid. Obama, with no primary opposition, has used every dollar to smear Romney ever since he became the clear leader for the GOP nomination. This means that with the exception of the Super PACs on both sides, Obama has an automatic and Romney has a derringer.
The obvious hope for the GOP is that, even doing this, the race is very close and Obama still cannot get above the mid 40s in the polls. Now, as of this Thursday, the GOP can start their general election spending cycle and hope that, after these summer doldrums & Olympics, they can get the voters attention on Romney’s favorables to offset the attacks.
The dangers are that Obama has locked in a lot of advertising time that Romney can not then use and that the Democrat and MSM have locked in the race, class and gender issues. Also, by being the President, Obama commands the issues and can use foreign and domestic policy as a campaign tool.
The GOP advantages are that Obama has a record and it is a bad one. There are endless broken campaign promises, trillions in added debt, historic unemployment and ticking time bombs in uncontrollable foreign climes.
Yes, this is far more of a horse race than it should be, but given the near-total worship given the second “Black President” by the MSM, for Romney to be this close going into the GOP Convention gives me hope for November.
Nothing objectionable in the selection. I don’t care enough to go to the site.
While you may well be right, the current situation may be a blessing in disguise. Obama has spent mountains of money ( that he can’t replace) trying to demonize all the Republican candidates and when Romney emerged, concentrated his fire there. The fact that Romney has been constrained in his spending by not being the nominated candidate has been a good thing. Romney has yet to use his big guns and now is free to spend the money he has (and a lot more that’s coming) on just Obama. Romney was at times brutal on the primary trail using whatever means he had at his disposal to dispatch his opponents. Now he will do the same to Obama. Good Hunting Mitt!
Obama lied. He broke his "no new taxes" pledge. Toss him out on his ass.
“If your not working, the economy does not affect you!”
Too many people remember when they had jobs, self-respect, and the freedom that comes with having discretionary income (as opposed to rent vouchers, food stamps, etc.); the economy has doomed Obama already (and the Dems seem to know it).
“There are endless broken campaign promises, trillions in added debt, historic unemployment and ticking time bombs in uncontrollable foreign climes.”
The second and third should suffice to sink him (especially the unreported inflation caused by the second); there is simply now way for Obama’s media to conceal either of those things.
Bingo! We have a winner.
Why is Obama still tied, narrowly winning, or even more narrowly losing when his record is so terrible? There are several reasons. A few of them are...
1. Demographics - the GOP has stupidly allowed decades of mass immigration (I’m talking legal immigration more so than illegal) even though it was clear that most of these immigrants are natural Democrats. The country is becoming less white, and therefore less Republican and less conservative over time. Romney is doing about as well with whites as Reagan did in 1980, yet it’s only enough to make it close right now.
2. Fewer people (% wise) are paying income taxes, yet more are using govt services. The Democrats are the party of government, and they’ve bought a lot of votes.
3. Overwhelming mainstream media bias - as satisfying as it has been to see the MSM’s lock on public discourse get broken, they still have significant power and influence. They can shape the discussion. They will do Obama’s bidding and eagerly change the focus from the economy and the crushing debt to the rambling of an idiot named Akin, or some tame joke Romney says, or some non-gaffes from Romney while overseas. They will constantly show Obama in a positive light so that his ‘likeability’ remains high, and do the opposite to Romney.
4. Pop Culture/Entertainment bias - Ever watch the late night shows? Obama is cool. Obama is in tune with young people. They struggle to come up with good Obama jokes, not because there isn’t plenty of ripe material, but because they simply don’t want to. Their heart isn’t in it. Lots of young people get their news from Letterman, Fallon, Stewart and the others. This also helps explain why the arrogant, self-centered, thin-skinned, divisive Obama is so ‘likeable.’
Taken together, #3 and 4 are worth at least a few points. A Republican with the same record, personality, and ‘rhetorical skills’ would be down 10 points at least.
5. Romney - he’s not the worst candidate we could have run by far. He’s proven very capable at times, and is clearly intelligent and has the know-how and experience to help get the economy really going again. But he’s also not the best we could have run. He’s not ideal. His past liberal record has made it hard for him to connect to and energize the base. He has been inconsistent in responding to the garbage team Obama and their media sycophants throw at him.
Because of numbers 1-4 I doubt even an ideal conservative candidate with moderate/independent appeal could be up by much over Obama.
On the other hand, if Obama had even a mediocre record, he’d probably be up by 10. So there is hope that Americans will make the right choice and throw Obama out.