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2012 President - Likelihood of Victory
predictwise.com ^ | 08/28/12 | PredictWise

Posted on 08/28/2012 10:45:27 AM PDT by justlittleoleme

Currently Intrade is at:

Obummer: 55.8% Romney: 43.7%


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; intrade
This website tracks a few prediction exchanges.

Republican numbers are slowly getting better. I think this is a good sign

Congress control numbers are looking good as well: http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012congressparty

1 posted on 08/28/2012 10:45:33 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
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To: justlittleoleme

Numbers out of whack with everyone elses.


2 posted on 08/28/2012 10:48:13 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: justlittleoleme

I don’t mind if it’s just me holding this thought, but any group that promotes the idea Obama is ahead nearly 56 to 44%, has jumped the shark.

Do I think public opinion has already pretty much settled on who folks are going to vote for? Yes, pretty much.

Do I think it’s Romney/Ryan. Yes I do.

Watch these figures do a whipsaw in the next week or two. All of a sudden, it’s going to become apparent that Obama is going to suffer a savage electoral beating.

Then we can get down to reality here. There’s an awful lot of wishful thinking out there. Obama is toast none the less.

After the break: Leftist wailing and gnashing of teeth...


3 posted on 08/28/2012 10:53:25 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: DoughtyOne

I agree. About a month ago it was at about 70% - 30% The numbers are slowly changing in the Romney direction. This is before the RNC. I can see this steadily getting better and Romney/Ryan winning in the end.


4 posted on 08/28/2012 10:56:35 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
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To: DoughtyOne
All of a sudden, it’s going to become apparent that Obama is going to suffer a savage electoral beating.

I think you're right, and assuming you are, intrade will come around. I think it's notoriously reliable.
5 posted on 08/28/2012 10:58:41 AM PDT by andyk (Go Juan Pablo!)
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To: justlittleoleme

That site also told us for sure that Obamacare would get tossed.

Why do people think that because some people are betting money on outcomes that it has some magic inside-track is beyond me.


6 posted on 08/28/2012 10:58:41 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: justlittleoleme
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/temp/chart134554663603630899.png Thats a steady trend in the right direction.
7 posted on 08/28/2012 11:01:19 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
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To: VanDeKoik

Its not always correct. But it can be pretty close:

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php
“2008 Presidential Election
Actual results and forecast”


8 posted on 08/28/2012 11:04:52 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
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To: justlittleoleme

Brainwashing 101!


9 posted on 08/28/2012 11:14:23 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: justlittleoleme

Brainwashing 101!


10 posted on 08/28/2012 11:14:39 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: justlittleoleme

Thanks. Hope we’re right. Seems obvious to me.


11 posted on 08/28/2012 11:18:21 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: justlittleoleme

Shouldn’t we be looking at the winner of the Monday night footall game the weekend before the election for our prediction? Isn’t there some squid that turns a certain color that can make election predictions?


12 posted on 08/28/2012 11:20:22 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: justlittleoleme

If Romney loses, we BETTER pick a 100 percent conservative in 2016 because obviously the GOPe is picking these liberals and they are not looking good to the American people. How many times do we have to remind the liberal Republicans that Liberal Republicans can’t win. They have tried it with Bob Dole, John McCain and now Mitt Romney...Three times and you are out. We win with social conservatives....Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. His father was a moderate who won on the coattails of Ronald Reagan.


13 posted on 08/28/2012 11:22:18 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Attention Republican National Convention voters....Santorum/Bachmann 2012! Dump liberal Romney NOW!)
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To: DoughtyOne

Expect Obama’s poll number to ‘collapse’ when the pollsters switch from national, “registered voters” over to state-by-state, “likely voters.” Nothing really will have changed, only the focus of the polls many of which have only served to artificially prop-up the dems to this point.


14 posted on 08/28/2012 11:22:45 AM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: DoughtyOne

Unfortunately for all of us, people were saying the same thing in 2008 all the way up to the results. People were SHOCKED that Obama lost because there was no way that America was going to vote for Obama. I would not discount anything right now. How about we put the energy into getting a conservative nominated at the convention. That would guarantee a win in November. With Romney it is going to be a drag him to victory...MAYBE.


15 posted on 08/28/2012 11:24:59 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Attention Republican National Convention voters....Santorum/Bachmann 2012! Dump liberal Romney NOW!)
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To: andyk

Some folks have been following intrade for years. I haven’t been motivated to do so. Your perspective could be accurate. I’m just not buying what folks are selling, if they see Obama in a favorable position right now.

If there was any chance at all Obama were going to pull this out, CNN, WP, and other Leftist news outlets wouldn’t call him on anything. Now they’re beginning to.

I think this has become an issue of credibility for them, and waning as they are, I don’t think they can stick with the Obama team. It would be too self-destructive.


16 posted on 08/28/2012 11:25:22 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: justlittleoleme

Intrade did such a good job “predicting” the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare, why not go back to them?


17 posted on 08/28/2012 11:25:52 AM PDT by brownsfan (Voting for Obama again is like backing the Titanic up and hitting the iceburg again!)
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To: DoughtyOne

It’s just so depressing that we’ve been left with a choice between two such truly vile people. I’ll take a crate of clothespins with me and pull the lever for Myth, but every time I see some posting here cheering his rise in the polls, deep inside I feel nothing but a deep, deep indifference.

Hank


18 posted on 08/28/2012 11:28:18 AM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: justlittleoleme

In 2008, InTrade had Huckleberry winning the Republican Nomination for a about a month after McCainiac clinched it. So take this with a whole Jimmy-Buffet-Margarita-sized shaker of salt.


19 posted on 08/28/2012 11:35:34 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: DoughtyOne
If there was any chance at all Obama were going to pull this out, CNN, WP, and other Leftist news outlets wouldn’t call him on anything. Now they’re beginning to.

Maybe they're pretending to be critical because they know he's in trouble. Too conspiratorial?
20 posted on 08/28/2012 11:38:37 AM PDT by andyk (Go Juan Pablo!)
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To: DoughtyOne

This same group Intrade forecasted Obamacare would be struck down 90-10 by the Supreme Court.


21 posted on 08/28/2012 12:10:26 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Maybe not so out of whack considering Soros’ spanish company is counting the votes.


22 posted on 08/28/2012 12:30:42 PM PDT by bgill
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To: justlittleoleme

What is Las Vegas saying? Where people are plunking down money that’s where it counts.


23 posted on 08/28/2012 12:40:24 PM PDT by MCF
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To: justlittleoleme

Obama trending down on Intrade.


24 posted on 08/28/2012 12:49:27 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (CREDO QUIA ABSURDUM)
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To: justlittleoleme

Before the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare this poll had it at 78% that the court would strike the law down. So I do not think the polls accuracy can be trusted.


25 posted on 08/28/2012 1:41:40 PM PDT by Uncle Hal
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To: DoughtyOne

Got to remember that as people finish up their vacations and the kids get back to school, look for an increase in the numbers for Romney/Ryan. Obama is showing more and more he is TOAST.


26 posted on 08/28/2012 1:52:48 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: bgill

” Maybe not so out of whack considering Soros’ spanish company is counting the votes.”

Yeah..

Why don’t we just tell the RNC to let Obama count them? I don’t see a difference, quite frankly.


27 posted on 08/28/2012 1:55:29 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: justlittleoleme

Remember, it is STILL the ECONOMY decides Presidential elections.


28 posted on 08/28/2012 1:56:23 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Hank, I’m conflicted over this one worse than ever before. Obama is the worst possible outcome for president. Then you look at Romney, and he’s the worst possible outcome as a representative of our cause from the Republican ranks.

This being said, I cannot help but be glad Obama will be swept away in a landslide. I just can’t get myself to vote for a man that has so little in common with me. There isn’t even the slightest chance I would vote for Romney.

If he was a Democrat, we would be unified against him. Now that he’s leading our ranks, most people are rooting for him and warning folks who won’t vote for him that they are supporting Obama. It’s laughingly, cryingly, humiliatingly a FAIL for Conservatism.

So yes, I do celebrate that Obama will be gone. And at the same time, I have a great deal of sorrow what that will wind up meaning. Things I don’t support at all, are going to happen no matter what I do this election.

The last four years, it has become readily apparent that the Republican party has no interest whatsoever in being the champion of our Constitution or Conservatism in general.

Romney supporters have absolutely not clue whatsoever, what we’re about to witness.

For all the adherence there’s going to be to it, both parties should just hold a ceremony where the U. S. Constitution would be burned, in celebration of it’s death.


29 posted on 08/28/2012 3:15:30 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: andyk

No, it’s not too conspiratorial. They have been critical. Self-preservation is something even the vilest of cultures understands all too well.


30 posted on 08/28/2012 3:17:19 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: GilGil

LOL, ouch! I wasn’t aware of that, but it does seem like it could have been the case. Roberts had all our numbers on that one didn’t he.


31 posted on 08/28/2012 3:20:43 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: Biggirl

Yes, I think he’s tipping his hand too. The emails begging for $3.00 are still coming fast and furious. Now that’s funny.


32 posted on 08/28/2012 3:25:01 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Yep! intrade was so wrong on Obamacare it was staggering!


33 posted on 08/28/2012 5:25:33 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: brownsfan
Intrade did such a good job “predicting” the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare, why not go back to them?

There is absolutely no comparison between the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare and a national election. The SCOTUS decision came down to one single vote out of nine, while the national election has millions of voters.

34 posted on 08/28/2012 7:01:09 PM PDT by Shethink13
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