Skip to comments.2012 President - Likelihood of Victory
Posted on 08/28/2012 10:45:27 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
Currently Intrade is at:
Obummer: 55.8% Romney: 43.7%
Republican numbers are slowly getting better. I think this is a good sign
Congress control numbers are looking good as well: http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012congressparty
Numbers out of whack with everyone elses.
I don’t mind if it’s just me holding this thought, but any group that promotes the idea Obama is ahead nearly 56 to 44%, has jumped the shark.
Do I think public opinion has already pretty much settled on who folks are going to vote for? Yes, pretty much.
Do I think it’s Romney/Ryan. Yes I do.
Watch these figures do a whipsaw in the next week or two. All of a sudden, it’s going to become apparent that Obama is going to suffer a savage electoral beating.
Then we can get down to reality here. There’s an awful lot of wishful thinking out there. Obama is toast none the less.
After the break: Leftist wailing and gnashing of teeth...
I agree. About a month ago it was at about 70% - 30% The numbers are slowly changing in the Romney direction. This is before the RNC. I can see this steadily getting better and Romney/Ryan winning in the end.
That site also told us for sure that Obamacare would get tossed.
Why do people think that because some people are betting money on outcomes that it has some magic inside-track is beyond me.
Its not always correct. But it can be pretty close:
“2008 Presidential Election
Actual results and forecast”
Thanks. Hope we’re right. Seems obvious to me.
Shouldn’t we be looking at the winner of the Monday night footall game the weekend before the election for our prediction? Isn’t there some squid that turns a certain color that can make election predictions?
If Romney loses, we BETTER pick a 100 percent conservative in 2016 because obviously the GOPe is picking these liberals and they are not looking good to the American people. How many times do we have to remind the liberal Republicans that Liberal Republicans can’t win. They have tried it with Bob Dole, John McCain and now Mitt Romney...Three times and you are out. We win with social conservatives....Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. His father was a moderate who won on the coattails of Ronald Reagan.
Expect Obama’s poll number to ‘collapse’ when the pollsters switch from national, “registered voters” over to state-by-state, “likely voters.” Nothing really will have changed, only the focus of the polls many of which have only served to artificially prop-up the dems to this point.
Unfortunately for all of us, people were saying the same thing in 2008 all the way up to the results. People were SHOCKED that Obama lost because there was no way that America was going to vote for Obama. I would not discount anything right now. How about we put the energy into getting a conservative nominated at the convention. That would guarantee a win in November. With Romney it is going to be a drag him to victory...MAYBE.
Some folks have been following intrade for years. I haven’t been motivated to do so. Your perspective could be accurate. I’m just not buying what folks are selling, if they see Obama in a favorable position right now.
If there was any chance at all Obama were going to pull this out, CNN, WP, and other Leftist news outlets wouldn’t call him on anything. Now they’re beginning to.
I think this has become an issue of credibility for them, and waning as they are, I don’t think they can stick with the Obama team. It would be too self-destructive.
Intrade did such a good job “predicting” the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare, why not go back to them?
It’s just so depressing that we’ve been left with a choice between two such truly vile people. I’ll take a crate of clothespins with me and pull the lever for Myth, but every time I see some posting here cheering his rise in the polls, deep inside I feel nothing but a deep, deep indifference.
In 2008, InTrade had Huckleberry winning the Republican Nomination for a about a month after McCainiac clinched it. So take this with a whole Jimmy-Buffet-Margarita-sized shaker of salt.