Skip to comments.Democracy Corps poll shows Romney up 15 among independents (0bama +2; DS +6)
Posted on 08/29/2012 10:01:01 AM PDT by Perdogg
Via Suitably Flip and RCP, the latest poll from James Carvilles Democracy Corps should have the sirens wailing over at Team Obama. The topline numbers show Barack Obama with a two-point lead over Mitt Romney, 49/47, down from a 4-point lead in July. The new sample is D+6 at 38/32/28, only a slight change from Julys D+5 at 38/33/25, a margin-of-error change from one poll to the next (which is true of the topline change, from 50/46, as well).
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
I don’t know what pollsters are doing to their numbers, but there is no way this race is remotely tight.
Obama down 15 among independents but he’s up 2 overall in this poll? Makes no sense.
Polls = Keep asking until you get the answer you want
I don’t know what to believe anymore.
Also, Rush just said there is an ABC poll that shows the majority of people still blame Bush for the bad economy.
Bush = Republicans
23-point shift in independents and a 10 point drop in the women vote.
James Carvilles Democracy Corps.
This is why CNN is attempting to balance their coverage now...they smell a loser.
Yea whatever. This is a close race, period. And the fact the RNC will not go after Obama during this convention is going to keep it close.
Do you support the first African American President of the United States for reelection or that rich white Mormon elitist, Romney?
(/sarc for those lefty lurkers.)
I guess that depends on the poll.
Pulse Opinion Research
Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washingtons fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.
It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.
Sorry but the math doesn’t add up.
Roughly 40% of the electorate is INDEPENDENT, you can’t be in a close race if you are LOSING the independent vote by 15 points, its NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE folks.
Easy: D+6. Looks like a Romney lead to me.
But they oversample Dems, not indies.
“...and a RNC convention who thinks it’s best to talk in general speak about Love and Respect rather than putting this bastard on blast over his bad ideas and record.”
I don’t know what convention you’ve been watching but pretty much every speaker has been putting in their digs at Obama. Heck, last night’s theme was “We Did Build It” and before every small business owner’s speech you heard the FULL quote by Obama while on screen the name and credentials of the business owner were shown.
Now that Romney is the official nominee he has a boatload of cash that he can tap - and continue raising - instead of the primary restrictions. Romney/Ryan will come out with both guns a’blazing with mega rallies, TV/internet ads and fundraising.
Expect Ryan’s speech to be a little fire and brimstone and Romney making some very direct charges in his acceptance speech.
“Sorry but the math doesnt add up.”
It doesn’t for me either.
FWIW, in addition to HamiltonJay’s predictions and my predictions, forner NH Gov. John Sununu, Sr. was on the Howie Carr Show Monday and he was as confident as a rooster in a henhouse that R2 would get over 300 EV’s. Maybe I need to stop huffing glue, but barring some truly WACKY event, R2 has this thing wrapped up.
And it won’t be close.
Like I’ve said here ~100 times, the popular vote % will look like 1988 and the EV count will look like 1992.
You are correct. Our side is motivated, independents are with us significantly, Dem motivation is down, and he is tied or ahead a little. BS. Not to mention Dem registrations are down and ours are up a little. The math doesn't add up. As someone said last week in a similar discussion, it is in the sampling. They are scoring a higher turnout by Dems than GOP, and assuming Dems are voting lockstep for Obama. Neither is the case.
“the RNC will not go after Obama during this convention”
That is pull bullcrap. I listened to the convention last night and they went after 0bama.
New poll in IOWA showing Obama losing a 10 point lead. It is now (supposedly) 2 from Dem PPP. Oversample of Dems certainly in place.
It’s MY OPINION that they need to be more tough on his record..be specific about the numbers.
That’s what I’m taking about.
BTW, PPP nailed the Scott Brown election in 2010 head on in their prediction. Even though they trend left, they are one of the more accurate polling firms.
I would like to see an across the board comparison of all major pollsters for the last poll of the 08 presidential election and for the 2010 senate races.
Like I’ve said many times a polling outfit is but one data point. That’s why when some folks go Tourette’s when Rasmussen gets questions, it shows that they don’t understand (or want to accept) that he, like everyone else, is a data point, not the whole data set.
Ha !! If you think that’s amazing got the RCP’s average. Suddenly there are a surge of polls out taken just before the convention that show Romney surging. Why do you think that is ?
I say according to the polls the week before the Republican convention is probably historically the best week for Republicans in history and it’s consistent from race to race. Why do you think that is ?
RCP shows Romney +2 in this poll, +1 and actually leading in the ABC/Wash Post poll, +5 in the CNN poll, +5 in the FOX poll, pretty much all the recent non-tracking polls that have something to compare them to show a bounce. Some do it by messing with internals, others pick this poll as their first Likely Voters poll but they all want to make Romney look stronger just before the convention so that they can deaden the bounce that they may register during the convention. Just my opinion.
It's because most polling is turning up a population that identifies itself as more Democrat than Republican than in previous years. Even the FOX poll showed this recently, and their polling firm discussed it specifically (one of the few who took the time to do so). I think the demographic shifts have something to do with it. Also, many polls simply show less independents - and the way the race seems frozen at around 47/47 seems to demonstrate this. That's the theory anyway.
I just heard Paul Ryan.
He nailed it and brought the house down, going after Obama’s failures on Obamacare and on a number of issues.
Just heard Brooks call it a ‘prosecutorial indictment’.
“Spent force” ... nailed Obama on stealing from Medicare to fund Obamacare, and reminded the promise to repeal it,
That line about kids still in their parents home staring at their old Obama poster was ... sublime.
You may be right that some of the convention went soft on Obama or at least havent all gone fullbore, but not really now ... Obama’s mincemeat if America listens to Ryan.
The thing about PPP is that sometimes they may lie for a partisan reason since they are an official democrat firm. When they want to be accurate, they are.
“You have a media who has written stories about we’re in a recovery, and have covered for zerOs HORRIBLE economic record, “
So are the 25 million long-term unemployed / underemplyoed / gave-up-on-work-entirely to believe the media or their own lyin’ eyes?
Unemployment this election day will be over 8%, higher than when Obama took office. If THAT was a crisis ... what is today? The media cant paper over the lousy economy.