Skip to comments.JONATHAN MILLER: Don't Buy The Hype About A Housing Recovery
Posted on 08/30/2012 11:53:26 AM PDT by blam
JONATHAN MILLER: Don't Buy The Hype About A Housing Recovery
Aug. 30, 2012, 12:53 PM
Much of the housing recovery you've been hearing about is still just hype, says Jonathan Miller of Manhattan-based real estate appraisal company Miller-Samuel.
"We keep throwing the 'recovery' word around, but the big numbers are coming from sources being created from the tight market," he told Business Insider. "Tight credit is causing rents to rise; falling mortgage rates are pushing people to buy.
"There's this sense that no one really has a sense of where we are in the housing market. Recovery is this very generic, undefined term. Maybe that's a good thing, not one extreme or the other."
Ultimately, it depends where you are.
"When you say 'recovery' you're implying that things are going to go up," Samuel continued. "In certain markets you might see that, but in some you won't."
So what does the seasoned appraiser think consumers will see in the market over the next five years?
"A sideways orientation," he said. "For now, it may make lenders more comfortable and help turn prices around, but I guess I take offense to it because I think when people hear it, deep down they don't trust the message either. All it does is create more confusion."
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I do not think that word means what they think it means.
As I’ve said for years, where are the buyers going to come from?
Not young families who would like to move up, but are underwater and can’t sell their current home.
Not people who have been forclosed, declared bankruptcy, or lost their jobs and seen their credit ratings go down the toilet.
Not young people who can’t find a job.
Not baby boomers who if anything want to downsize if they could only sell their big house they don’t need anymore.
So where are buyers going to come from?
I always feel like I am wasting my time but I will do it again.
The housing market has already bottomed. This is a fact. Housing starts bottomed in 2008 with 465k. Starts have gone up steadily from there. We are now in the 760k range. Permits for new houses last month was up to 812,000. We are a long way from 1.4 million. This is what we really should be doing to maintain housing for a population of 300 million people based on most economists. This because on average houses only last about 75 years. They burn down, get torn down, get flooded, etc. They need to eventually be replaced. Also the population is growing.
What we are seeing is a demographic shift continuing to the south and the west. Also, as the population ages on average, more people are buying in 55 and over condo, apt. and assited living centers. This means multifamily permits are increasing as a percentage of the total and single family are not.
Lastly , because of the demographic shift, markets like Phoenix(prices up 15% in last year) are up more than Buffalo. Florida, Texas, SC, NC, GA will recover fastern than IL, MI and NY. Even within the new england, NH will/is recovering faster than RI or CT because our unemployment rate in NH is 5% and our tax struture. This goes along with the main rules of real estate. All real estate is local and location, location, location.
The main reason real estate has bottomed is that houses got cheap enough that investors could buy them and rent them out. They got cheap enough in places like Phoenix that people started buying them as vacation/retirement homes. These are the people that have been sitting on cash. They are not comfortable with the stock or bond markets but they perceive real estate as a good long term investment at these prices. Plus interest rates are so low, money , when you figure in real inflation is free.
The lumber broker.
The prices of real estate