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Poll comparisons 2008/2012
self | 9/2/2012 | LS

Posted on 09/02/2012 5:26:51 AM PDT by LS

Interesting looking at the polls from almost this same date four years ago:

ABC News/Washington Post (among "likely voters") September 5–7, 2008 Obama 47%/McCain 46%

CNN September 5–7 Obama 48%/McCain 48%

Rasmussen Reports ("likely voters") September 3-5 Obama 49%/McCain 46%

Investors Business Daily September 2–7 Obama 45%/McCain 40%

DemCorps ("likely voters") September 1–3 Obama 49%/McCain 44%


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; mccain; obama; romney; vanity
For some reason, McCain staged a rebound the next week reaching 50% in one poll and 49% in another, and once again managed a 48% before collapsing in late September when Obama finally began to hit or exceed 50% on a regular basis.

As best I can tell from eyeballing, Obama NEVER hovered in the mid to LOW 40s for nearly as long as he has now at any time since summer of the 08 campaign.

Now, with Romney hitting 50% in some polls for the first time, we'll see if he can hold it or grow it.

By the way, the chart is on Wiki, but FR won't let me post the link.

1 posted on 09/02/2012 5:26:53 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS

Those polls were taken before the MSM was able to fully engage their destroy Palin campaign, and also before McCain “suspended” his campaign to go back to DC to sign on to the bailout.

Neither of those things will happen this time, so we are in much better shape — although the country’s demographic shift should keep the Kenyan in it all the way up to election day.


2 posted on 09/02/2012 5:40:34 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: LS

Good post. Also shows, I think, that Ras is reliably on target.


3 posted on 09/02/2012 5:42:43 AM PDT by Obadiah (The Hunger Games -- Obama's vision for America)
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To: LS

Seeing these polls reminds me of the bias. A good friend of mine, who isn’t yet convinced of the bias had a conversation with me via email...I think I used some sound reasoning, and, if anyone wants to reuse this, I’d be honored:

When Bush won in 2004, a journalist was quoted as saying, “I don’t know how he won, nobody I know voted for him”. These “journalists/newscasters/newsreaders/talking heads/editorialists” all were taught by the same America-hating professors from UNC/Columbia/Yale/Harvard/etc. Thus, at some point you have to acknowledge that this group votes Dem 95% of the time, with the remaining 5% represented on Fox, and sprinkled as token conservatives at various outlets.

I watched PBS during the last day of the RNC convention. I saw and heard amazing stuff, and when the panel could not say anything negative about Romney or the folks who spoke, I realized it is indeed over for 0bummer. As long as Romney wins by 5% or more (3% for Dem cheating, 2% to stop Secs of State from inducing runoffs…runoffs are rigged a la Franken).

Long story short, analysis of the RNC by any source other than the conservative analysis I read is useless except for either wrapping up fried cod and chips or just keeping an eye on the other side and making sure they still validate that liberalism is a mental disorder.


4 posted on 09/02/2012 5:55:55 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: LS

Seeing these polls reminds me of the bias. A good friend of mine, who isn’t yet convinced of the bias had a conversation with me via email...I think I used some sound reasoning, and, if anyone wants to reuse this, I’d be honored:

When Bush won in 2004, a journalist was quoted as saying, “I don’t know how he won, nobody I know voted for him”. These “journalists/newscasters/newsreaders/talking heads/editorialists” all were taught by the same America-hating professors from UNC/Columbia/Yale/Harvard/etc. Thus, at some point you have to acknowledge that this group votes Dem 95% of the time, with the remaining 5% represented on Fox, and sprinkled as token conservatives at various outlets.

I watched PBS during the last day of the RNC convention. I saw and heard amazing stuff, and when the panel could not say anything negative about Romney or the folks who spoke, I realized it is indeed over for 0bummer. As long as Romney wins by 5% or more (3% for Dem cheating, 2% to stop Secs of State from inducing runoffs…runoffs are rigged a la Franken).

Long story short, analysis of the RNC by any source other than the conservative analysis I read is useless except for either wrapping up fried cod and chips or just keeping an eye on the other side and making sure they still validate that liberalism is a mental disorder.


5 posted on 09/02/2012 5:56:04 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: LS
What this tells me is that the 2008 race was very winnable with McCain/Palin.

McCain basically had no fire in the belly. The suspension of his campaign was more of an excuse to get off the campaign trail than to address the financial crisis. McCain ran a lackluster and uninspiring general campaign. He basically left Palin out to dry, leaving her to face the media sliming on her own. Other than right around the convention, did McCain and Palin even appear at rallies together? I remember Palin rallies drawing tens of thousands of people but McCain was nowhere in sight.

McCain ran an awful general campaign. It seems that his primary goal was obtaining the nomination. Once the nomination was secured, he mailed it in from that point on.

6 posted on 09/02/2012 6:10:01 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: LS

Seems to confirm the undecideds vote for the challenger.


7 posted on 09/02/2012 6:10:47 AM PDT by MNDude ( Victimhood is the Holy Grail of liberalism)
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To: LS

three things:

1) according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday 43% of people identified themselves as rats in Sept ‘08- today that number is 32%...

2) same poll showed in Sept ‘08 33% identified themselves as Republicans...today that number is 37.5% (there’s a thread on Freep)...

3) McCain hit the skids when he threatened to drop out of the first presidential debate and headed back to DC to vote for TARP...it was adios after that...


8 posted on 09/02/2012 6:41:18 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: LS

In 08, undecideds (and “weak leaners”) were shaken up by the financial collapse and generally disillusioned by years of steady Bush-bashing; McCain easily slipped into the role of “more of the same”, while Obama was a blank slate that anyone could project his or her hopes onto.

Four years later, at least some of those folks know (or at least suspect) that Obama is not the wunderkind he was painted out to be by the LSM, and to the extent that R&R can press home their advantage in an ability to address a failing economy, in 2012 the roles will be exactly reversed.


9 posted on 09/02/2012 6:58:41 AM PDT by Stosh
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To: LS
..no subjective messianic media-created aura this time

all that remains is a blank teleprompter...

2008--Big Mo

2010--Slow Mo

2012--No Mo

10 posted on 09/02/2012 7:19:05 AM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: WalterSkinner

I think that’s 2012, “Mo CHAIR.”


11 posted on 09/02/2012 7:21:46 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Stosh

Exactly. The Lehman meltdown happened in mid-September. McCain made the mistake of taking time off from the campaign and going to DC to try and “fix” the crisis - and challenged Obama to do the same. It was a terrible mistake.

Another big difference between this year and 2008: money. In 2008, Obama had a big advantage. This year, it’s reversed.


12 posted on 09/02/2012 7:55:23 AM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: MNDude
"Seems to confirm the undecideds vote for the challenger "

BINGO !!

And it confirms that the challenger had no record to run on in a bad economy and the press could paint "success' onto his slate. This election the President has a record to run on . . . and there is NO spinning it as good.

13 posted on 09/02/2012 8:33:07 AM PDT by builder (I don't want a piece of someone else's pie)
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To: LS

The stock market crashed during late September 2008. These polls did not yet register the effect of the crash on the voter.

Were the stock market to crash between now and the election, shift maybe five points to the out-of-power party, increasing Romney’s lead (according to the Rasmussen poll). Ditto the price of gasoline hitting $4.50 a gallon. As it is, with a depressed economy, higher than normal unemployment, low house and stock prices, the fundamentals argue for a change in President. But, a dramatic turn could change things.


14 posted on 09/02/2012 10:09:40 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: LS

I think that’s 2012, “Mo CHAIR.”

MO CHAIR - NO MO

The new urban bumper sticker


15 posted on 09/02/2012 10:16:22 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: LS

I would argue that looking at polls 4 years prior to mid-Sept is invalid, as the world change when Lehman collapsed and the financial crisis happened. Prior to it, McCain was indeed competitive, it was a close race.

McCain’s polls collapsed in late Sept and early Oct; the financial crisis made Obama’s “change” campaign seem suddenly urgent. McCain might have won without that event and with a close look at Obama’s real radicalism (that was never exploited in the campaign properly).

The polls today look odd. Obama is running ahead according to some polls, while any measure of real performance or righttrack/wrongtrack shows wide disappointment with him. that doesnt make sense.


16 posted on 09/02/2012 10:25:13 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: WOSG
Well, no. I put these up to show that in fact prior to Lehman, Zero was still bouncing around the mid-40s. But the interesting thing is that today, with the exception of a couple of polls last week---the only ones---he is mired at 44%-45%.

So, in a way, you make my point: that this IS Obama's natural range, even with no obvious disaster pinned on him.

17 posted on 09/02/2012 10:56:07 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
By the way, the chart is on Wiki, but FR won't let me post the link.

From the Wikipedia, on Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008:

Democratic nominee vs. Republican nominee

Margin shading indicates candidate in lead. Red = John McCain; Blue = Barack Obama

Poll Source Date administered Democratic Candidate % Republican Candidate % Lead Margin
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (among likely voters) October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 43% 8
Rasmussen Daily Tracking (among "likely" voters) October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 46% 6
Gallup (among registered voters) October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 40% 13
Gallup (among "expanded likely voters") October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 42% 11
Gallup (among "traditional likely voters") October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 42% 11
Gallup (with "undecided voters...allocated proportionately to the two candidates") October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 44% 11
ABC News/Washington Post (among "likely voters") October 30 – November 1, 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 43% 11
CNN

(among "likely" voters)

October 30 – November 1, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 44% 7
Rasmussen Daily Tracking

(among "likely" voters)

October 30 – November 1, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 46% 5
Investor's Business Daily/TIPP (among "likely voters") October 29 – November 1, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45% 2
Pew Center for Research (among "likely voters") October 29 – November 1, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 42% 7
Zogby Daily Tracking October 31, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44% 5
Gallup Daily Tracking (among "registered voters") October 29–31, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 41% 11
Rasmussen Daily Tracking

(among "likely" voters)

October 29 – October 31, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 47% 4
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 27–29, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 26–28, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 42% 9
Rasmussen Daily Tracking (among "likely voters") October 26–28, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 47% 3
Investors Business Daily/TIPP (among "likely voters") October 24–28, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 44% 3
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 25–27, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45% 4
Rasmussen Daily Tracking (among "likely voters") October 25–27, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 46% 5
Pew (among registered voters) October 23–26, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 36% 16
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 23–25, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 42% 9
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 20–22, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 20–22, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 40% 12
New York Times/CBS News (among "likely voters") October 19–22, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 39% 13
Investors Business Daily/TIPP (among "likely voters") October 18–22, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 44% 1
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 19–21, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 42% 10
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") October 19–21, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 42% 8
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 18–20, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 42% 8
American Research Group (among "likely voters") October 18–20, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45% 4
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (among registered voters) October 17–20, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 42% 10
CNN/Opinion Research (among likely voters) October 17–19, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 46% 5
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 17–19, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 41% 11
Pew Research Center (among registered voters) October 16–19, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 38% 14
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 14–16, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 13–15, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 43% 6
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 11–15, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 44% 4
CBS News/New York Times October 10–13, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 39% 14
ABC News/Washington Post (among "likely voters") October 12, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 43% 10
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 10–12, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 41% 10
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") October 10–12, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 40% 12
Rasmussen Reports Tracking (among "likely voters") October 10–12, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 45% 6
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 9–10, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") October 7–9, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 40% 12
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (among "likely voters") October 7–9, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 43% 5
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 6–8, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 41% 11
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") October 4–6, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 40% 12
CNN October 3–5, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 45% 8
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) October 3–5, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 42% 8
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") October 1–3, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 40% 11
CBS News September 27–30, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 40% 9
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") September 28–30, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 41% 10
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 27–29, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 43% 6
CBS News September 23–25, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 42% 5

Rasmussen Reports Tracking (among "likely voters")

September 23–25, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 45% 5
ABC News/Washington Post

(among "likely voters")

September 23, 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 43% 9
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 21–23, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 44% 3
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") September 19–21, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 42% 7
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 19–20, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 44% 6
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") September 17–19, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 43% 6
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 16–18, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44% 5
Rasmussen Reports Tracking (among "likely voters") September 15–17, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 48% 0
CBS News

(among "likely voters")

September 12–16, 2008 Barack Obama 48%

(49%)

John McCain 43%

(44%)

5

(5)

Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 13–15, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 47% 1
Daily Kos/Research 2000 (among "likely voters") September 13–15, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45% 2
ARG (among "likely voters") September 13–15, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 48% 3
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 11–13, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 47% 2
Reuters/Zogby (among "likely voters") September 11–13, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45% 2
Newsweek September 10–11, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 46% 0
FOX News September 8–9, 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 45% 3
InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position September 8, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 46% 0
Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking September 7–9, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 45% 0
NBC News/Wall Street Journal September 6–8, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46% 1
ARG (among "likely voters") September 6–8, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46% 1
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) September 6–8, 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 49% 5
Associated Press/GfK (among "likely voters") September 5–10, 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 48% 4
USA Today/Gallup

(among "likely voters")

September 5–7, 2008 Barack Obama 46%

(44%)

John McCain 50%

(54%)

4

(10)

ABC News/Washington Post

(among "likely voters")

September 5–7, 2008 Barack Obama 47%

(47%)

John McCain 46%

(49%)

1

(−2)

CNN September 5–7, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 48% 0
Rasmussen Reports Tracking (among "likely voters") September 3–5, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 46% 3
Investors Business Daily September 2–7, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 40% 5
DemCorps (among "likely voters") September 1–3, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44% 5
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) August 30 – September 1, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 42% 8
USA Today/Gallup August 30–31, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
ARG/National (among "likely voters") August 30–31, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 43% 6
Diageo/Hotline August 29–31, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 39% 9
CBS News August 29–31, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 40% 8
Rasmussen Reports Tracking August 26–28, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45% 4
Gallup Daily Tracking (among registered voters) August 23–25, 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 46% 2
USA Today/Gallup August 21–23, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 43% 4
USA Today/Gallup

(among "likely voters")

August 21–23, 2008 Barack Obama 48%

(49%)

John McCain 45%

(43%)

3

(6)

FOX News August 19–20, 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 39% 3
YouGov/Econcomist August 18–20, 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 38% 1
CBS News/NY Times August 15–19, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 42% 3
NBC News/Wall Street Journal August 15–18, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 42% 3
Rasmussen Reports Tracking August 16, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 45% 1
Reuters/Zogby August 14–16, 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 46% 5
Gallup Daily August 5–7, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 43% 3
Rasmussen Reports Tracking August 5–7, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46% 1
Gallup Daily July 24–26, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 40% 9
Gallup Daily July 22–24, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 41% 6
NBC/WSJ July 18–21, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 41% 6
CBS News/NY Times July 7–14, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 39% 6
Gallup Daily July 11–13, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 43% 3
ABC News/Wash Post July 10–13, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 46% 3
Reuters/Zogby July 9–13, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 40% 7
Quinnipiac July 8–13, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 41% 9
Newsweek July 9–10, 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 41% 3
CNN June 26–29, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 45% 5
Mclaughlin & Associates June 26–29, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 38% 8
Rasmussen Reports Tracking June 26–28, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 43% 6
Gallup Daily June 25–26 & 28, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 42% 4
The Times/Bloomberg Poll June 19–23, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 37% 12
Newsweek June 18–19, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 36% 15
Rasmussen Reports Tracking June 17–19, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 44% 4
USA Today/Gallup June 15–19, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 44% 6
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics June 17–18, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 41% 4
Reuters/Zogby June 12–14, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 42% 5
NBC News/Wall Street Journal June 11, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 41% 6
Rasmussen Reports Tracking June 9, 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 44% 6
Gallup Daily June 9, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 42% 6
Lombardo Consulting Group May 26–28, 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 40% 4

[edit] Four-way contest

My own recollection from that season is, Obama going to win until McCain picked Palin, then Obama going to win again after McCain's idiotic response to the financial crisis in late September.

18 posted on 09/02/2012 10:56:52 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: Redmen4ever; WOSG

Absolutely a sudden shock, either way, can move polls. The point of the comparison was that overall, across the board, even though McCain was up Obama was higher in 08 than he is now.


19 posted on 09/02/2012 10:58:26 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SamAdams76

“McCain basically had no fire in the belly.”

McLame was the RNC Geriatric Team’s “It’s My Turn” candidate. You just have to wonder what’s wrong with Republicans in Arizona to have re-elected this brain dead jerk again!


20 posted on 09/02/2012 11:04:21 AM PDT by vette6387
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