Rasmussen: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Romney 48 Obama 44)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/02/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

[Dysart]

Watching the film “2016” should be mandatory for all undecideds before voting. After watching, their little minds would expand enough to make the choice for Romney something on the order of 85% conservatively estimated.

[Road Glide]

“I agree. The higest I see Obama getting is about 47% & that’s pushing it.”

Perhaps at the national level.

But I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 60-65% of the vote in states like New York, Vermont, Rhode Island, etc.

[riri]

I am praying that the convention comes across as the freak show we know it is. I also and hoping they go over the top with the cult of personality. Hoping too, that Obama comes across as angry and small. Also, hoping it comes across as grandiose in bad economic times.

This is my wish list. Well, the stuff that's fit for print.

[Road Glide]

“Mittens is in pretty good shape if you can compare this with 1980”

So was McCain in 2008 — until the crash hit, and he temporarily suspended his campaign to go back to Washington. After that, his poll numbers plunged and he never recovered.

There may be similar “unknown unknowns” this year. Israel’s impending attack on Iran will likely produce consequences that we can’t really foresee yet.

It’s just too early to tell.

I still believe it will be a close election, especially in the electoral college.

[Michael.SF.]

You're absolutely right. It is probable that some of those 12 will do just that.

[Nextrush]

Romney +5 is a likely result.

[adorno]

The problem with Rasmussen’s poll is that, it doesn’t account for the deadmocrat votes, and for the other types of fraudulent voters that always favor the democrats.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“Their ideology is what they perceive as “work for them” today.”

I understand that as well, but that still delineates them, IMHO, as very much out of touch.

I am not an ideologue, but do hold a very fundamental belief that freedom is precious, and is at the core of what defines America. This used to be a shared belief by all major parties in the US. This is not so now, and that is a radical shift. I do not believe, for a second, that this is just an election of subtle differences, irrespective of what some have said about how little difference there is between Romney and Obama. This goes way, way beyond Romney.

I believe, strongly, that we are headed down a pathway that has the potential to change the US and the world in a very negative way, and perhaps even to the end of the US as a nation that most of us, including many democrats, would be able to recognize. In the past, for the most part, independents could sit back and choose between two American candidates who just had different ideas about how best to achieve the same goal - a strong, prosperous, and morally sound America. Now we have Bolsheviks on the ballot, and a President who launched his political career in the living room of two avowed anti-capitalists who bombed government buildings.

[nathanbedford]

Every day as I review the Rasmussen data I am told that 42% of the electorate "strongly disapproves" of Obama. So I ask myself, where will Obama find 50 of every 100 voters if 42 of those voters are dead set against him?

Put another way, by what alchemy can Obama claim 50 of the remaining 58 votes to get to 50%? That is 86% and that ain't gonna happen.

Rasmussen says 27 % "strongly approve" of Obama, let us award those votes to him. With 42% strongly against him and 27 % strongly for him that totals 69 % of the voters. Since Obama needs 23 more votes per hundred added to his 27 % who strongly approve to get 50%, and 23 is 74 % of 31 (the remaining voters), that means that Obama must take three quarters of those voters still up for grabs.

That ain't gonna happen.

I recognize there is a discrepancy between these two approaches and I further recognize that it is possible to win with only a plurality and not 50% plus one vote. Nevertheless, the odds against Obama are long indeed.

Where am I going wrong?

[Wuli]

I don’t trust Rasmussan. He’s really a Lib.

I have some concern that this could be sending intentional and false signals to the GOP voters, when no matter what the polls show the GOP needs to be beating the bushes to get more GOP registered to vote and to get more “Independents” on their side, as that is the kind of effort the Dims will be doing in spades and with the media’s help - like these polls, making sure they are scared into a stonger effort.

[devolve]

McCain with his stupid naive campaign "time out" -


Muslims like Obama call that a "re-loading" armistice.....

[Norseman]

>>... I honestly don’t understand how voters can have their vote decided on the basis of a convention...<<

Understandable, if you watch political news fairly closely, but tons of people don’t. In swing states they’ve been bombarded with millions of dollars in ads where the Obama campaign attempted to paint Romney as something less than human, and negative ads work, for a time anyway.

Then, if they watched the convention, they saw plenty of evidence that countered the impression the ads were intended to convey. Hence, the bounce. It’s legitimate, and I’d bet that Obama gets no similar bounce because people already know him.

Quite the opposite in fact, if the OWS crowd manages to pollute the whole affair, and they just might succeed at doing that. If I were overseeing the Democrat’s convention, I’d be very concerned right now. It could really go off the rails and stay off. And if it does, how long before Bill Clinton cuts bait?

[Norseman]

>>Put my empty chair on my front lawn yesterday while mowing. <<

You know, I have a chair just begging to be sacrificed to the elements for a couple of months....

You might be onto something here. Really, really onto something. It’s going out on the lawn today! (And the nice thing about a chair, it’s easier to move when mowing than a yard sign.)

Ah, ridicule. I haven’t read “Rules for Radicals” but I’ve heard it’s in there. Sauce for the goose; sauce for the gander, and all that.

[scbison]

usually with a high + D over R.. Rasmmsusens currently found in July or August that there are actually more voters identifying as R over D.. I think it is around +4

[Pearls Before Swine]

Wait until zer0 pulls the HildeBeast out of the hat to replace Biden.

It will be a pretty good trick to pull Thunder Thighs out of a hat, especially when she's made diplomatic excuses to spend the Convention period overseas.

That said, I agree it would give the Dems a boost. But, it would complicate Hilary's plans, so it isn't going to happen.

[panaxanax]

LOL. That would have to be one hell of a hat!

Just because she’s overseas doesn’t mean she couldnt be drafted and respond via telephone. All pre-planned, of course.

Keep in mind that zer0 will do ANYTHING to get re-elected....ANYTHING.

[LongWayHome]

Obama will get a lot of votes in the blue states for sure.

[LongWayHome]

It seems like there has been a slow, constant trend to Romney over the last six or seven weeks with more & more republicans showing up in the likely voter polls.

[Cruising For Freedom]

Does anyone know if Rasmussen has incorporated the new R-D identification numbers in his polling?

I heard yesterday that he hasn’t, which means that today’s poll would probably be more like 50-44.

[dalebert]

Don’t forget Ryans calling rape another form of conception. truthdig.com seems to be playing it up. young lady out of Florida sent it to me this morning on my FB account.sharing with eveyone. looking for much cheationg in college towns