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Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.
Washington Post ^ | 09/01/2012 | Dylan Matthews

Posted on 09/02/2012 1:07:33 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

This year’s American Political Science Association conference was set to be in New Orleans this weekend. Suffice it to say, that didn’t happen.

It’s a shame, not least because one of the panels was going to highlight five new studies on how to forecast American presidential and congressional elections, all of which are highly relevant to 2012. But just because those studies’ authors didn’t get the chance to present their work in person doesn’t mean we can’t take a look at it here, at least at the four papers we’ve obtained from the authors (the author of the fifth is in the process of updating his, and we'll post it later). So how do the models work, and what do they predict for this year’s elections?

===

Study: “History and Primary: The Obama Re-election.” Who did it: Helmut Norpoth and Michael Bednarczuk (SUNY, Stony Brook University).

The variables: Uniquely among the studies here, Norpoth and Bednarczuk do not include any economic variables. Instead, they simply use the share each major party candidate got of the primary vote in the New Hampshire primary. To account for presidents who run unopposed, they set a maximum possible vote share of 65 percent, and a minimum possible share of 35 percent. That is, if a candidate got between 65 and 100 percent of the vote, that’d be inputted as 65 percent, and if a candidate got between 0 and 35 percent of the vote, that’d be inputted as 35 percent.

How well it does: The model has an adjusted R-squared value of 0.89. In plain English, that means that it explains about 89 percent of variation in party vote shares between presidential elections.

What it predicts: The model forecasts Obama will get 53.2 percent of the two-party vote and Romney will get 46.8 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; forecast; models; obama
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1 posted on 09/02/2012 1:07:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

What do you model, gloves???


2 posted on 09/02/2012 1:08:40 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (ObamaCare is an assault on the unborn, infirmed and elderly. GOP, repeat this as necessary...)
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To: SeekAndFind
Oh yeah, absolutely. He's a shoo-in, Washington Post. You - and all the other geniuses of the default media - don't have a thing to worry about. You're world view is perfectly valid; you have succeeded in your life-long goal of bending reality to conform to your dream-world by means of words and pictures.

Give yourselves another pat on the back, for me.

3 posted on 09/02/2012 1:10:35 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Maybe model airplanes..


4 posted on 09/02/2012 1:10:58 PM PDT by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: SeekAndFind

so in essence these models are predicting obama will win by basically the same margin he beat McLame in ‘08??? makes lotsa sense....


5 posted on 09/02/2012 1:12:28 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: SeekAndFind
liberal arts degree book cover Pictures, Images and Photos

"Yeah, umm, nice model I guess. Not so much milk in my latte next time."

6 posted on 09/02/2012 1:13:44 PM PDT by Snickering Hound
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To: SeekAndFind

Isn’t that a bigger margin than his win over McLame? At a time when 0bama is fairly reviled throughout the country and his own base is fairly apathetic? Nuts!


7 posted on 09/02/2012 1:14:40 PM PDT by gop4lyf (Socialism is the political dream of the unachiever, the excuse maker, and the lazy.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I have to quote WAPO commenter mitchellvii. I think he’s got a good handle on all the data.

“I prefer the Occam’s Razor Election Model. It goes like this: Obama is a lousy President. Romney wins.”


8 posted on 09/02/2012 1:16:32 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: Snickering Hound

Liberal Arts graduates tend to have degrees in Chemistry, Physics, Math ~ and business grads these days tend to have degrees that don’t draw employers interest to them.


9 posted on 09/02/2012 1:16:48 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: max americana

LOL! Yeah I think they are sniffing too much of the glue....


10 posted on 09/02/2012 1:17:37 PM PDT by jakerobins
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To: SeekAndFind

I thought Giselle was endorsing Obama.


11 posted on 09/02/2012 1:17:48 PM PDT by GreatRoad (O < 0)
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To: SeekAndFind

As Yogi Berra observed: “It ain’t over till it’s over”


12 posted on 09/02/2012 1:19:10 PM PDT by Iron Munro ("In any compromise between good and evil, it is only evil that can profit." - Ayn Rand)
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To: SeekAndFind
Photobucket
13 posted on 09/02/2012 1:20:19 PM PDT by 2111USMC (aim small, miss small)
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To: SeekAndFind
The model forecasts Obama will get 53.2 percent of the two-party vote and Romney will get 46.8 percent.

Rotfl! Talk about whistling past the graveyard.

Keep thinking just like that okay? Please?

14 posted on 09/02/2012 1:21:53 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: SeekAndFind
If you haven't seen it yet, you might agree that these pollsters may have employed tactics similar to these and for the same reasons as described on that thread.
15 posted on 09/02/2012 1:24:31 PM PDT by loveliberty2
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To: SeekAndFind

Course the models predicted the recent Tea Party victories too.


16 posted on 09/02/2012 1:25:00 PM PDT by bray (The Gummit didn't make my business, God did!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Sadly, I think they may be right. From my perspective there seems to be just as much love, excitement and support for the One on the street. I am seeing more 0bama stickers and yard signs around me than 4 years ago.

The election is not about the economy. It's about pop culture and what is cool. Romney is a a white, religious, monogamous person as is Paul Ryan. White is not cool. Religion is not cool. Monogamy is not cool....But being black or Latino is cool, being sexually active and having “friends with benefits’ is very cool. Children out of wedlock is cool.

People will vote for 0bama in droves because of his image, not his policies. This is the American Idol and Jersey Shore age. People are worried about image and nothing more.

17 posted on 09/02/2012 1:25:13 PM PDT by GR_Jr. ("On Nov.6 I guess I will swallow that bitter pill called Mitt Romney...only to stop 0bama")
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To: GR_Jr.

You may be right. See the support and popularity polls. It’s an American Idol election.


18 posted on 09/02/2012 1:28:12 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Which model?

"I personally believe...that...US Americans don't have maps. Like the Iraq, therefore such as..."

19 posted on 09/02/2012 1:29:01 PM PDT by deadrock
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To: SeekAndFind

If 0bama win’s in November, then we will never EVER see another republican POTUS.


20 posted on 09/02/2012 1:32:07 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: EGPWS

We also won’t have a country anymore, I am more concerned about that. America as we know it will be finished


21 posted on 09/02/2012 1:34:34 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: muawiyah

Not really. They take physics course where they learn “If you drop something, and it falls, it is gravity”.

By the way, if any one wants to question my academic qualifications, I have a degree in both Business and Electrical Engineering - where I took real Math, Physics, and Chemistry.


22 posted on 09/02/2012 1:35:09 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind

But astrologers are saying Obama will loose.


23 posted on 09/02/2012 1:35:58 PM PDT by jennychase
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To: SeekAndFind

Smells like it! Looks like it! It is it! Bull Poop!


24 posted on 09/02/2012 1:38:34 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: max americana

Obviously they’ve been sniffing the airplane glue.


25 posted on 09/02/2012 1:38:57 PM PDT by YankeeReb
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To: max americana

Obviously they’ve been sniffing the airplane glue.


26 posted on 09/02/2012 1:39:18 PM PDT by YankeeReb
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To: GR_Jr.; Revolting cat!
No presidential candidate in modern history has ever won reelection by losing voters. 0bama has lost support across the board.
27 posted on 09/02/2012 1:44:14 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind

One thing this election is going to tell us is if the takers now outnumber the givers. If the freeloaders now outnumber the workers.


28 posted on 09/02/2012 1:44:37 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Had enough of the freaks running the show yet?)
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To: SeekAndFind

BS on the polls, pure BS...but, the Romney campaign needs to get this stuff out there(my mom forwarded this to me - no, I don’t have ONE source for it all):

Why Mitt Romney is Unlikable!

A lot is being said in the media about Mitt Romney not being “likable” or that he doesn’t “relate well” to people. Frankly, we struggled to understand why. So after much research, we have come up with a Top Ten List to explain this “unlikablility.”

Top Ten Reasons To Dislike Mitt Romney:

1. Drop-dead, collar-ad handsome with gracious, statesmanlike aura. Looks like every central casting’s #1 choice for Commander-in-Chief.

2. Been married to ONE woman his entire life, and has been faithful to her, including through her bouts with breast cancer and MS.

3. No scandals or skeletons in his closet. (How boring is that?)

4. Can’t speak in a fake, southern, “black preacher voice” when necessary.

5. Highly intelligent. Graduated cum laude from both Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School...and by the way, his academic records are NOT sealed.

6. Doesn’t smoke or drink alcohol, and has never done drugs, not even in the counter-culture age when he went to college. Too square for today’s America?

7. Represents an America of “yesterday”, where people believed in God, went to Church, didn’t screw around, worked hard, and became a SUCCESS!

8. Has a family of five great sons....and none of them have police records or are in drug rehab. But of course, they were raised by a stay-at-home mom, and that “choice” deserves America’s scorn.

9. Oh yes.....he’s a MORMON. We need to be very afraid of that very strange religion that teaches its members to be clean-living, patriotic, fiscally conservative, charitable, self-reliant, and honest.

10. And one more point.....pundits say because of his wealth, he can’t relate to ordinary Americans. I guess that’s because he made that money HIMSELF.....as opposed to marrying it or inheriting it from Dad. Apparently, he didn’t understand that actually working at a job and earning your own money made you unrelatable to Americans.

My goodness, it’s a strange world, isn’t it?

*****************************************************

Personal Information:

His full Name is: Willard Mitt Romney
He was Born: March 12, 1947 and is 65 years old.

His Father: George W. Romney, former Governor

of the State of Michigan

He was raised in Bloomfield Hills , Michigan

He is Married to Ann Romney since 1969; they five children.

Education:
B.A. from Brigham Young University,

J.D. and M.B.A. from Harvard University

Religion:
Mormon - The Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-Day Saints

Working Background:

After high school, he spent 30 months in France as a

Mormon missionary.

After going to both Harvard Business School and

Harvard Law School simultaneously, he passed the Michigan

bar exam, but never worked as an attorney.

In 1984, he co-founded Bain Capital a private equity

investment firm, one of the largest such firms in the

United States.

In 1994, he ran for Senator of Massachusetts and lost

to Ted Kennedy.

He was President and CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympic

Games.

In 2002, he was elected Governor of the State of

Massachusetts where he eliminated a 1.5 billion deficit.

Some Interesting Facts about Romney:

Bain Capital, starting with one small office supply store

in Massachusetts, turned it into Staples; now over

2,000 stores employing 90,000 people.

Bain Capital also worked to perform the same kinds

of business miracles again and again, with companies

like Domino’s, Sealy, Brookstone, Weather Channel,

Burger King, Warner Music Group, Dollarama,

Home Depot Supply and many others.

He was an unpaid volunteer campaign worker for

his dad’s gubernatorial campaign 1 year.

He was an unpaid intern in his dad’s governor’s

office for eight years.

He was an unpaid bishop and state president of

his church for ten years.

He was an unpaid President of the Salt Lake

Olympic Committee for three years.

He took no salary and was the unpaid Governor of

Massachusetts for four years.

He gave his entire inheritance from his father to charity.

Mitt Romney is one of the wealthiest self-made men

in our country but has given more back to its citizens

in terms of money, service and time than most men.

And in 2011 Mitt Romney gave over $4 million to charity,

almost 19% of his income.... Just for comparison purposes,

Obama gave 1% and Joe Biden gave $300 or .0013%.

Mitt Romney is Trustworthy:

He will show us his birth certificate

He will show us his high school and college transcripts.

He will show us his social security card.

He will show us his law degree.

He will show us his draft notice.

He will show us his medical records.

He will show us his income tax records.

He will show us he has nothing to hide.

Mitt Romney’s background, experience and

trustworthiness show him to be a great leader and

an excellent citizen for President of the United States.

You may think that Romney may not be the best

representative the Republicans could have selected.

At least I know what religion he is, and that he won’t

desecrate the flag, bow down to foreign powers,

or practice fiscal irresponsibility.

I know he has the ability to turn this financial debacle

that the current regime has gotten us into. We won’t

like all the things necessary to recover from this

debt, but someone with Romney’s background can do it.

But, on the minus side, he never was a “Community

Organizer”, never took drugs or smoked pot, never

got drunk, did not associate with communists

or terrorists, nor did he attend a church whose pastor

called for God to damn the US.


29 posted on 09/02/2012 1:45:32 PM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Things have changed since 2008, but they are still weighting their polls the same.


30 posted on 09/02/2012 1:45:38 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: SeekAndFind

A model that ignores economic numbers is not a model at all. It is like predicting an nfl game winner based on what each team had for dinner last Wednesday.


31 posted on 09/02/2012 1:46:59 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, frankly, I hope the Dems believe this, so they’ll get cocky, louder, and nastier before the election. That will help to display to voters just what they’ll have if they vote for Obama, again.


32 posted on 09/02/2012 1:51:55 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: gov_bean_ counter

Oh, yeah, I remember those models! They predicted Democrat wins in the 2010 midterm elections!


33 posted on 09/02/2012 1:54:59 PM PDT by MikeyB806
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To: Perdogg

Oh, right formulas for resistors ~ know that one well. Now, how about topology? Not sure the cow colleges get up to that one.


34 posted on 09/02/2012 1:55:58 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind

These modelers are the real airheads, or they have been sniffing too much glue.


35 posted on 09/02/2012 1:56:29 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: CincyRichieRich

Waste of bandwidth.


36 posted on 09/02/2012 1:57:42 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Perdogg

Usually no one loses by getting less votes than his same party predecessor ~ McCain got fewer votes than “W” ~ but in this case Obama has to lose 10 million votes before he gets down that low so there is a cushion of sorts.


37 posted on 09/02/2012 1:59:35 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Perdogg
Usually no one WINS by getting less votes than his same party predecessor ~ McCain got fewer votes than "W" ~ but in this case Obama has to lose 10 million votes before he gets down that low so there is a cushion of sorts. (correction)

Don't just tut tut models that show Obamugabe winning ~ show the specific errors ~

38 posted on 09/02/2012 2:00:50 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind
Most models say Obama will win

Only voter fraud will give Obama the win...

39 posted on 09/02/2012 2:00:50 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (My 6 pack abs are now a full keg......)
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To: EGPWS
If 0bama win’s in November, then we will never EVER see another republican POTUS.

If so then, it is greatly deserved. The GOP nominated the ONE person in the party who could not credibly go after Obama on one of the two glaring issues where the vast majority opposes Obama (Healthcare and the economy). If Romney and McCain are the best the party can come up with in nearly a decade, then it deserves to die.

(But sadly, the GOP has already spent a lot of effort in the past 18 years conspiring with the Dems against the US population, and has made it much more difficult for 3rd parties to become viable contenders.)

40 posted on 09/02/2012 2:01:44 PM PDT by Teacher317 ('Tis time to fear when tyrants seem to kiss.)
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To: GR_Jr.
What it predicts: The model forecasts Obama will get 53.2 percent of the two-party vote and Romney will get 46.8 percent.

I'm sorry, Obama may certainly win but if you believe Obama will get 53.2% of the vote this time around you must be on drugs of some kind.

41 posted on 09/02/2012 2:04:13 PM PDT by WHBates
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To: SeekAndFind

Sooooo Hussein will beat Romney be a larger margin than he beat McClame??!!

Uh huh.
Was this model completed before or after its creator’s Rock the Vote marathon for Obama?


42 posted on 09/02/2012 2:13:31 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Hell, there will never be another election unless Zero is the only one running.


43 posted on 09/02/2012 2:17:24 PM PDT by RightLady (Take out the trash Nov 6th)
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To: EGPWS
Completely disagree. Jeb will run versus Hillary in 2016. If Obama is re-elected, and if the country further goes down the economic drain (which it will, IMHO no matter who wins this 2012 race), then Jeb (or another candidate) will crush Clinton (or any other candidate).

If somehow there is a small recovery (or the status quo of slow collapse is grindingly played-out) under Obama, and if there is no disastrous war with Iran, then the 2016 election will be a toss-up. I still think that the Republican would win, as Hillary is so damn divisive. She is also white, and the race card of lurking guilt in regards to criticizing Obama is effectively muted.

The only way I see Clinton not running in 2016 is if she is on the Supreme Court (I doubt she would be approved, unless the Dems have huge Senatorial gains in 2014, which will NEVER happen, as I see the Repubs picking up 3 to 5 seats: NC, NJ, NH, LA, CO, AK being the hot contests).

44 posted on 09/02/2012 2:22:55 PM PDT by Abiotic (The ship of democracy, which has weathered all storms, may sink through the mutiny of those on board)
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To: SeekAndFind
The variables: Uniquely among the studies here, Norpoth and Bednarczuk do not include any economic variables. Instead, they simply use the share each major party candidate got of the primary vote in the New Hampshire primary. To account for presidents who run unopposed, they set a maximum possible vote share of 65 percent, and a minimum possible share of 35 percent. That is, if a candidate got between 65 and 100 percent of the vote, that’d be inputted as 65 percent, and if a candidate got between 0 and 35 percent of the vote, that’d be inputted as 35 percent.

That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard of.

Squint at data hard enough and you will find patterns. Investors in the stock market fall prey to the latest "this strategy has never failed if you follow this arcane investing pattern" all the time.
45 posted on 09/02/2012 2:24:52 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: SeekAndFind

The Romney/Ryan team is set to win come November and as added proof, take a look at the rallies that they appear in, like “rock concert” size.


46 posted on 09/02/2012 2:25:43 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: SeekAndFind

bradley effect


47 posted on 09/02/2012 2:25:50 PM PDT by stylin19a (Obama -> Ransom "Rance" Stoddard)
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To: GR_Jr.

Do you live in the “bubble” known as the Bay Area? There’s a lot of unreality there.


48 posted on 09/02/2012 2:25:55 PM PDT by Disambiguator
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To: muawiyah
Don't just tut tut models that show Obamugabe winning ~ show the specific errors ~

You've got it backwards. Proving that the data models use isn't predictive isn't necessary. The models need to rigorously why the data they have constitutes a correlation.

This is no better than layman stock market technical analysis or data mining. Coming up with models is a hard science for quants getting paid 400K/year, one well beyond the means of polisci majors.

The only predictive power is sampling the actual votes (by the means of asking people who they will poll), and even then, there is a lot of art and error in sampling that.

Other than that? Unless some megabucks hedge fund firm is kind enough to open-source a model they spent millions and millions on, it's all bull. You are, quite seriously, no better off using the models cited in the article than using the "Halloween Mask Purchase" and "Cow Poops On An Obama/Romney Square" predictions.
49 posted on 09/02/2012 2:37:45 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: Steely Tom

Setting themselves up for an epic evening of shock...I’m going to have the bubbly on ice to celebrate a little R & R.


50 posted on 09/02/2012 2:40:22 PM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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