Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.

Washington Post ^ | 09/01/2012 | Dylan Matthews

[SeekAndFind]

This year’s American Political Science Association conference was set to be in New Orleans this weekend. Suffice it to say, that didn’t happen.

It’s a shame, not least because one of the panels was going to highlight five new studies on how to forecast American presidential and congressional elections, all of which are highly relevant to 2012. But just because those studies’ authors didn’t get the chance to present their work in person doesn’t mean we can’t take a look at it here, at least at the four papers we’ve obtained from the authors (the author of the fifth is in the process of updating his, and we'll post it later). So how do the models work, and what do they predict for this year’s elections?

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Study: “History and Primary: The Obama Re-election.” Who did it: Helmut Norpoth and Michael Bednarczuk (SUNY, Stony Brook University).

The variables: Uniquely among the studies here, Norpoth and Bednarczuk do not include any economic variables. Instead, they simply use the share each major party candidate got of the primary vote in the New Hampshire primary. To account for presidents who run unopposed, they set a maximum possible vote share of 65 percent, and a minimum possible share of 35 percent. That is, if a candidate got between 65 and 100 percent of the vote, that’d be inputted as 65 percent, and if a candidate got between 0 and 35 percent of the vote, that’d be inputted as 35 percent.

How well it does: The model has an adjusted R-squared value of 0.89. In plain English, that means that it explains about 89 percent of variation in party vote shares between presidential elections.

What it predicts: The model forecasts Obama will get 53.2 percent of the two-party vote and Romney will get 46.8 percent.

[gov_bean_ counter]

What do you model, gloves???

[Steely Tom]

Oh yeah, absolutely. He's a shoo-in, Washington Post. You - and all the other geniuses of the default media - don't have a thing to worry about. You're world view is perfectly valid; you have succeeded in your life-long goal of bending reality to conform to your dream-world by means of words and pictures.

Give yourselves another pat on the back, for me.

[max americana]

Maybe model airplanes..

[God luvs America]

so in essence these models are predicting obama will win by basically the same margin he beat McLame in ‘08??? makes lotsa sense....

[Snickering Hound]

"Yeah, umm, nice model I guess. Not so much milk in my latte next time."

[gop4lyf]

Isn’t that a bigger margin than his win over McLame? At a time when 0bama is fairly reviled throughout the country and his own base is fairly apathetic? Nuts!

[jocon307]

I have to quote WAPO commenter mitchellvii. I think he’s got a good handle on all the data.

“I prefer the Occam’s Razor Election Model. It goes like this: Obama is a lousy President. Romney wins.”

[muawiyah]

Liberal Arts graduates tend to have degrees in Chemistry, Physics, Math ~ and business grads these days tend to have degrees that don’t draw employers interest to them.

[jakerobins]

LOL! Yeah I think they are sniffing too much of the glue....

[GreatRoad]

I thought Giselle was endorsing Obama.

[Iron Munro]

As Yogi Berra observed: “It ain’t over till it’s over”

[2111USMC]

[bill1952]

The model forecasts Obama will get 53.2 percent of the two-party vote and Romney will get 46.8 percent.

Rotfl! Talk about whistling past the graveyard.

Keep thinking just like that okay? Please?

[loveliberty2]

If you haven't seen it yet, you might agree that these pollsters may have employed tactics similar to these and for the same reasons as described on that thread.

[bray]

Course the models predicted the recent Tea Party victories too.

[GR_Jr.]

Sadly, I think they may be right. From my perspective there seems to be just as much love, excitement and support for the One on the street. I am seeing more 0bama stickers and yard signs around me than 4 years ago.

The election is not about the economy. It's about pop culture and what is cool. Romney is a a white, religious, monogamous person as is Paul Ryan. White is not cool. Religion is not cool. Monogamy is not cool....But being black or Latino is cool, being sexually active and having “friends with benefits’ is very cool. Children out of wedlock is cool.

People will vote for 0bama in droves because of his image, not his policies. This is the American Idol and Jersey Shore age. People are worried about image and nothing more.

[Revolting cat!]

You may be right. See the support and popularity polls. It’s an American Idol election.

[deadrock]

Which model?

"I personally believe...that...US Americans don't have maps. Like the Iraq, therefore such as..."

[EGPWS]

If 0bama win’s in November, then we will never EVER see another republican POTUS.