Skip to comments.After Arizona Primaries, 9th District Rating Change (Republican pickup opportunity)
Posted on 09/04/2012 5:26:15 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Tuesdays primaries in Arizona offered a little bit of everything, including a Member vs. Member race and what GOP strategists are calling a gift.
The 9th District is brand new, after the Grand Canyon State was awarded another seat in Congress through reapportionment, and its first general election could be a fascinating race between an openly bisexual Democrat and an African-American Republican.
Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination with 42 percent over state Senate Leader David Schapira (31 percent) and former state party chairman Andrei Cherny (27 percent). Vernon Parker, an official in both Bush administrations and Paradise Valley city councilman, won the Republican nomination with 23 percent over three other candidates.
On paper, the district is competitive- Barack Obama won it with 51 percent and George W. Bush carried it with 49.5 percent in 2004- and Republicans believe Sinema is too liberal for the district.
We probably got our biggest gift in the entire country, National Republican Congressional Committee Executive Director Guy Harrison said in a conference call from the convention in Florida about Sinema.
(Excerpt) Read more at rothenbergpoliticalreport.com ...
Kyrsten Sinema is a leftist with a history of radical statements, so this is a real opportunity. And she’s an unconventional candidate in other respects, which means some local Democrats may not support her. Vernon Parker would be a great addition to the caucus and I hope that Arizona conservatives are making his election a priority.
She's too liberal for the Soviet Communist Party.
Nutcase freak who makes Trotsky look like a fuddy duddy...
Could you explain to me how a brand-new seat can be considered a “pick up?”
This is going to be a tough district. It includes ALL of ASU liberal Tempe and the lion’s share of Phoenix central district way north to Sunny Slope. I didn’t know Sinema was bisexual (she has a hot librarian look), but that’s going to be a plus for her. This is my district and I think we’re screwed here.
By pickup, I mean it’ll be a new member to the caucus. The area is marginal politically, it voted narrowly for Bush in 2004.
We’ll see. I like Vernon Parker (voted for him), and the GOP had a lot more total votes in the primary. That’s encouraging.
The new AZ-09 would have given Obama a 51%-47% victory in 2008 and likely would have been a 49%-all tie in the 2004 presidential election, so it is not overwhelmingly liberal by any stretch. Tempe was the heart of the district that elected Schweikert in 2010 and had previously elected J.D. Hayworth several times. Sinema is well to the left of the district’s median, and Vernon Parker has a real opportunity to win in November. A great sign for us was that the GOP primary in AZ-09 had about 20% more voters than the Democrat primary—sure, the Democrats didn’t have a U.S. Senate primary while the GOP did, but it’s not as if the GOP primary was all that contested (Flake won with 69% against divided opposition).
This district was drawn for Democrats.
Lots of districts get drawn for Democrats via gerrymandering, but it doesn’t mean they always end up in their hands. Sinema is a world-class moonbat, and this is a winnable district.
Yes, it is. I didn’t know she was weird. Liberal, yes, but she apparently goes farther than that.
Her opponents were more mainstream candidates. She’s running as if this district is in San Francisco. I think Mayor Parker could peel off a decent percent of non-moonbat Dem voters, as he is a mainstream candidate.
Wasn’t all of Mesa in Flake’s CD?
I know Harry Mitchell beat J.D.—in 2006. The CD voted 54% for President Bush.
Yes, I know the AZ-09 was drawn by the “nonpartisan” commission to elect a Democrat, but they didn’t make it Democrat enough for a bisexual moonbat to coast to victory. Vernon Parker can win this.
No, Mesa was Hayworth...in fact the border between Flake and Hayworth was Elliot Road in Chandler. I’m pretty sure Flake had nothing at all in Mesa.
I agree with you...Sinema is a bit “out there” for most of us, but don’t underestimate the lunacy of Tempe voters who have a high turnout. I hope she keeps promising to take her progressive values to DC, as she said in her primary commercials.
I looked it up, and it appears that I was correct. Heavily Mormon Mesa (plus Chandler and areas to the east) was in the AZ-06 (held by Mormon Jeff Flake, who resides in Mesa):
Meanwhile, the Hayworth/Mitchell/Schweiker AZ-05 took in Tempe and Scottdale, some areas directly south, and lots of Maricopa County to the north and northeast (but not Mesa):
In any event, the new AZ-09 only gave Obama 51% in 2008 and was just about evenly split between Bush and Kerry in 2004 (someone posted that Bush had narrowly carried it, and that could well be correct), so Mayor Parker has a real chance of beating Sinema.
I stand corrected. I thought JD had most of Mesa. I think there’s a good chance for Vernon Parker, but it’s never going to be as easy at it should be. Nine has some seriously strange people residing in it.
She’s nice looking for a female rat.
Very important races in AZ. I’d like to win all 3 close seats. If THEY sweep them it’s a 5-4 rat delegation which is unacceptable.