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Ezra Klei of WaPo: Five reasons the economy may be about to boom
Washingto (Com)Post ^ | 09/05/2012 | Ezra Klein

Posted on 09/05/2012 9:36:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Edited on 09/05/2012 9:43:54 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

1. “The housing sector is improving. … the first signs of renewal have appeared: prices are rising in almost half of the country’s major housing markets. Pent-up demand is huge. Goldman Sachs expects housing starts to hit 1.4m annually by 2015, up from 700,000 this year. After 2015, the total will rise further and boost GDP, as household formation rates and the starts-to-population ratio revert to historical norms.”


(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: boom; economy
His two other reasons are:

4. “The U.S. has made a huge leap in industrial competitiveness.

5. “The U.S. may surprise itself and the world by rectifying its deficit and debt problems.

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST

1 posted on 09/05/2012 9:36:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Ezra Klein is the guy who started Journ-O-List.


2 posted on 09/05/2012 9:37:54 AM PDT by Obadiah (The Hunger Games -- Obama's vision for America)
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To: SeekAndFind

#5, lol.

competitive? We have the highest corporate tax rates on Earth


3 posted on 09/05/2012 9:38:25 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: SeekAndFind

The article should have begun like this:

Roger Altman former Democratic party operative and who is willing to say anything to further the party’s cause says......


4 posted on 09/05/2012 9:38:53 AM PDT by rod1 (CTLY)
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To: SeekAndFind

.....

99. Obama will be leaving the Whitehouse soon and sanity is expected to return the the US economy.


5 posted on 09/05/2012 9:40:54 AM PDT by Tenacious 1 (The Click-&-Paste Media exists & works in Utopia, riding unicorns & sniffing pixy dust.)
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To: GeronL
And slated to go higher next year with even more Obamacare taxes...

Yippy. :-|

6 posted on 09/05/2012 9:42:06 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (I will not comply.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ezra is not talking to the folks here. My small business friends are sounding like it’s 2008 again, the time when they saw Obama coming and there was a massive cutback preparation for the brewing storm. They were right then. I just wonder who the ‘progressives’ are going to blame this downturn on. Nothing good will come of this.


7 posted on 09/05/2012 9:44:07 AM PDT by griswold3 (Big Government does not tolerate rivals.)
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To: SeekAndFind
1. Mitt Romney
2. Paul Ryan
3. Barack Obama gone
4. Obama czars gone
5. Federal right-to-work legislation
8 posted on 09/05/2012 9:44:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: rod1

There’s no such thing as a “former” Democratic Party operative. See George Stephanopolous, Chris Matthews, etc.


9 posted on 09/05/2012 9:46:37 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Drill Baby Drill


10 posted on 09/05/2012 9:50:02 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: SeekAndFind

#0: President Romney


11 posted on 09/05/2012 9:53:52 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The Democratic Party strongly supports full civil rights for necro-Americans!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Remember, these are the same liberals who promised us that if spent trillions in deficit spending that unemployment would never go below 8%.

And the same liberals who promised us a recovery summer back in 2010.


12 posted on 09/05/2012 9:59:38 AM PDT by radpolis (Liberals: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy)
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To: GeronL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Competitiveness_Report#2008-2009_rankings

When Bush was President we were #1 in Global Competitiveness. 0bama's first year in office we slipped to #2 and it's been downhill since:

2009-2010 = U.S. #2

2010-2011 = U.S. #4

2011-2012 = U.S. #5

2012-2013 = U.S. #7

13 posted on 09/05/2012 9:59:40 AM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: SeekAndFind

If Romney does win and the economy does improve sometime in the next four years, all we will here about from the liberal media is how Romney had nothing to do with it, Obamanomics finally worked and what a shame it is that the idiot voters kicked him out of office before he had could finish what he started.


14 posted on 09/05/2012 10:03:20 AM PDT by apillar
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To: SeekAndFind

Someone sees more “green shoots” of an impending recovery through readings of the tea leafs and goat entrails.


15 posted on 09/05/2012 10:05:04 AM PDT by PowderMonkey (WILL WORK FOR AMMO)
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To: GeronL

There is a typo in the headline. The word “go” should follow the word “to”.


16 posted on 09/05/2012 10:09:11 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If there is a boom, and I think there may be, it will be caused by one thing: monetization of the whole mess. That truly is the scorched earth solution. Whenever it is implemented, and it will be, eventually, it will be the last and final solution to this mess. And when it falters, you had better be wearing a really tough parachute.


17 posted on 09/05/2012 10:11:41 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

reason 6- ezra klein needs/wants obamogabe re-elected...


18 posted on 09/05/2012 10:13:01 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: rod1

Here is a great comment from the comments at the article’s site. It sums it up very well:

1. Housing, even with the “improving” number is still half of what it was averaging before 2006. I found the data in 5 secs, why didn’t the author?

2. Oil and gas will save the economy. Its a mirage according the today’s NYT, and the Democrats will likely shut down fracking.

3. Banking recovered? With unlimited taxpayer funds, I should hope so. But financial stocks never recovered from 2008. Morgan Stanley is rumored to be about to fail and GM is back in bankruptcy territory. The banking system is on life support nothing more.

4. Unit costs are down because wages, benefits and the numbers of workers are down.

5. Ending all of the Bush tax cuts net $100 billion per year. The budget “sequestration” cuts net about $100 billion per year. The deficit is $1.1 trillion. No fix is imminent for the budget woes. The Fed is having to print money and force interest rates low not to stimulate the economy but to keep the US government from a Greek or Spanish type collapse.

I rarely read the WaPo any more because of trash like this, but I clicked the link without looking at the url. The quality of the WaPo content has dropped to the level of a facebook post.


19 posted on 09/05/2012 10:13:26 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind
1. The housing sector is improving

It stopped falling. That is about it. With 15% real unemployment house sales aren't going anywhere based on demand. Mortgage rates are now at 3.5%. They can only realistically go up, and price movement will be inverse to interest costs.

2. The breathtaking increase in oil and gas production.

Maybe if Republicans win the WH and 60% of the Senate this will mean something, but otherwise the petroleum industry is working at cross purposes with the government.

3. The U.S. banking system has recovered faster than anyone could have imagined.

That is a joke right? Its totally propped up by a federal government, which is itself bankrupt.

4. The U.S. has made a huge leap in industrial competitiveness

Companies retracted into their next lowest sweet spot of productivity, giving up on positioning for growth. As they all have done this, efficiency has gone up. This isn't a leap up, its hunkering down. Comparisons have also been skewed by the under reporting of the dollar's collapse.

5. The U.S. may surprise itself and the world by rectifying its deficit and debt problems.

Only if some new laws of mathematics are discovered.

20 posted on 09/05/2012 10:14:06 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: SeekAndFind
5. “The U.S. may surprise itself and the world by rectifying its deficit and debt problems.

Hey America! Go surprise yourself.

Wait...we can't do that!?

Klein is obviously part of the Choom Gang.

21 posted on 09/05/2012 10:19:01 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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To: SampleMan
"The U.S. may surprise itself and the world by rectifying its deficit and debt problems"

Sounds like the business plan for the Underpants Gnomes ...

22 posted on 09/05/2012 10:20:35 AM PDT by BlueLancer (You cannot conquer a free man. The most you can do is kill him. (R. Heinlein - "If This Goes On"))
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To: griswold3

Yes. You’re right. It is a lot like 2008 at my business too. I’m treading water again, depleting a chunk of the cash reserves every month. Fortunately, there are only about 2 more months to go until we start to come out of this funk.


23 posted on 09/05/2012 10:21:58 AM PDT by ColoradoTim (Saving Liberalism at all Costs.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The housing comeback is a fact. I have seen it firsthand in the West. The rest is dubious and/or wishful thinking.


24 posted on 09/05/2012 10:50:29 AM PDT by montag813
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To: montag813

Houses can’t be built fast enough in the oil fields in North Dakota.....


25 posted on 09/05/2012 10:55:05 AM PDT by stickywillie (a corrupt parallel universe exists beside our wonderful Constitution)
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To: Obadiah

Just setting the stage for Democrats to try and take credit for the Romney Recovery


26 posted on 09/05/2012 11:10:57 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind
1. “The housing sector is improving. … the first signs of renewal have appeared: prices are rising in almost half of the country’s major housing markets. Pent-up demand is huge. Goldman Sachs expects housing starts to hit 1.4m annually by 2015, up from 700,000 this year. After 2015, the total will rise further and boost GDP, as household formation rates and the starts-to-population ratio revert to historical norms.”

Financial institutions are sitting on (my estimate) of 2-4 million loans in default, but they're carried on the books at the book value (unpaid principal) of the loan, not current appraised value of 60-70%. Probably 20% of those loans are delinquent in excess of four years.

And where are the new home buyers coming from? The ranks of under-30 college grads, who owe $50-$100K+ in student loans?

Altman must be a charter member of the Choom Gang.

Goldman Sachs is not to be trusted. In 2015, the economy will be hampered as the federal deficit will be at least $19 Trillion.

27 posted on 09/05/2012 11:19:18 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (The Tea Party was the earthquake, and Chick Fil A the tsunami...100's of aftershocks to come.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Despite all the propaganda, housing can’t really recover until the 7 or 8 million defaulted properties are allowed to clear the market. That’s TREMENDOUS DOWNWARD pressure on pricing. Unprecedented downward pressure.

AND housing won’t really recover until the Federales stop all the recent new, additional interfering or meddling with mortgage lending and mortgages.

It would be very helpful, also, if we had more jobs instead of less and less and less...

YES, housing will recover someday. The above three economic factors will eventually clear up. Someday. Or maybe not. Let’s see who wins the election first...


28 posted on 09/05/2012 11:25:22 AM PDT by faithhopecharity
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To: faithhopecharity

I like these ignorant zit-faced punks writing about the economy. His major was in political science. I also notice that his wife also writes on economic policy for the NY Times also, her wiki states that she studied English and American Literature as a major. How in the hell do they get a job at 28 years old, with no economic experience, no business major, no MBA writing about economic policy for the largest newspaper in the USA?

It just baffles the hell out of me, there weren’t any MBA’s or accounting majors that could write on economic policy, or a retired CEO, you have to get some punk who has no credentials, three or four years out of college?


29 posted on 09/05/2012 11:49:03 AM PDT by nobamanomore
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To: stickywillie
Houses can’t be built fast enough in the oil fields in North Dakota.....

For reference on what lies ahead: Colorado, Wyatt Oil, Atlas Shrugged.

No way North Dakota survives a second Obama term - it is a living rebuke to everything they believe.

30 posted on 09/05/2012 12:09:48 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: apillar

“If Romney does win and the economy does improve sometime in the next four years, all we will here about from the liberal media is how Romney had nothing to do with it, Obamanomics finally worked and what a shame it is that the idiot voters kicked him out of office before he had could finish what he started.”

That’s what this article is really all about because the ObamaMedia knows The One is going to lose, so they’re laying the groundwork to give former President Obama the credit.


31 posted on 09/05/2012 12:43:42 PM PDT by catnipman ((Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!))
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To: SeekAndFind
"The U.S. may surprise itself and the world by rectifying its deficit and debt problems."

They are going to be rectified, but not in the way the author would like us to belive.

The Kenyan must go.

32 posted on 09/05/2012 2:54:03 PM PDT by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; ONE BOX LEFT!)
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