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Romney leads 49% to 46% in poll of 1200 LIKELY voters taken 9/4 - 9/6, skewed towards Dems
American Research Group ^ | September 7th, 212 | American Research Group

Posted on 09/07/2012 9:53:32 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball

September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot

National
Likely voters Sep 4-6

Obama 46%
Romney 49%
Other/Undecided 5%

Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: September 4-6, 2012

Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points Question wording: If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated)

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).

Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.

Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).

Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.

Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).

A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.

A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.



TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; romney
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Note that this poll OVERsamples Dems but still gives Myth a 3% lead. It's of 1200 likely voters. The most definitive done recently.

Definitely looks like BO is in a tailspin to me.

Hank

1 posted on 09/07/2012 9:53:41 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

already posted 7 threads below this one

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2928178/posts


2 posted on 09/07/2012 9:57:41 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

interesting


3 posted on 09/07/2012 9:58:37 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
That poll can not be true every0ne and their momma loves Obama- You are going to vote for Obama and you are gonna like see. Ha ha ha
4 posted on 09/07/2012 10:04:30 PM PDT by funfan
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

bookmark


5 posted on 09/07/2012 10:04:52 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

A D+4 sample is probably close to accurate: shifting 2 percent of the sample form D to I (which is probably a little more accurate) may give Romney another percentage point, but the difference it makes isn’t just less than the margin of error, it’s within rounding error.


6 posted on 09/07/2012 10:24:10 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: The_Reader_David

Rasmussen does regular party ID surveys to update his models, and his last (about a week ago) was exactly opposite: R - 38%; D - 34%

That’s a huge swing.

Hank


7 posted on 09/07/2012 10:29:50 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.

This is why there are no convention bounces (and why Nate Silver is an absolutel moron for trying to compare Romney's bounce to past convention bounces).

Obama has the country so divided and pissed off at each other there are far less swing voters available than in the past. We are heading towards a boiling point in the future.
8 posted on 09/07/2012 10:46:30 PM PDT by jb729
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

interesting with over sample of dems the margin could be even bigger. no wonder O looked so constipated


9 posted on 09/07/2012 10:50:55 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

It doesn’t matter.

This election will be decided in about 10-15 counties containing large union presence in battleground states.

When the Republican party, conservatives, and libertarians band together to figure out a way to counter unions driving their folks to the polls, checking that they voted, declare early voting unconstitutional in national general elections, etc. then MAYBE we have a shot.

The ground game, not the opinion game, is the one everyone must learn how to play to win.


10 posted on 09/07/2012 11:13:40 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Drudge links to a poll that shows the Obamanation with a post-convention bump that puts him ahead of Romney 46-44%.


11 posted on 09/07/2012 11:21:35 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Lib-Lickers 2

bears repeating IMO ;)


12 posted on 09/07/2012 11:35:06 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: luvbach1

Reuters poll.


13 posted on 09/07/2012 11:35:58 PM PDT by p. henry
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To: jb729

In 2004, Zogby had the same aura of mystique that Nate Silver currently carries now.


14 posted on 09/07/2012 11:36:41 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: luvbach1

That’s an Internet poll


15 posted on 09/07/2012 11:46:57 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: sf4dubya

That declaration sounds very astute and all but its still the economy stupid and Obama is going down very hard.


16 posted on 09/08/2012 12:06:01 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

“Reagan democrats” are horrified at what they saw at the RAT convention.

“Martha... those people are not us...”


17 posted on 09/08/2012 12:44:10 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

If the party ID is really +4 Rep. Then R/R will win this thing going away.

I’m not convinced it is though. Especially since Rasmussen is the only one using those numbers.


18 posted on 09/08/2012 12:58:34 AM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

2008 election accuracy— they were pretty good, only slightly tipped to Obama:http://americanresearchgroup.com/ratings/2008/uspresident/


19 posted on 09/08/2012 3:24:09 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: sf4dubya

There’s hope.

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2012/09/07/news/doc5049714d6e5d8022800687.txt

We bring jobs, and O doesn’t.


20 posted on 09/08/2012 3:44:34 AM PDT by Windcatcher (Obama is a COMMUNIST and the MSM is his armband-wearing propaganda machine.)
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To: Windcatcher

Polls don’t mean didly.........remember I keep saying, “It’s not who votes, it’s who COUNTS the votes.”

And with Soros’s people counting the votes in Spain, guess who will surface as the winner? Sure as hell won’t be a Repub. At least that’s my take on this whole mess but I hope I am wrong.


21 posted on 09/08/2012 4:04:17 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Note also-—a good point by another Freeper-—this poll includes a landline/ cell split (83/17, with Romney up 4 on landlines, down 3 on cells) so the overall numbers seem pretty valid and seem to reiterate Rasmussen’s.


22 posted on 09/08/2012 4:17:10 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Progov
This attitude is such crap. If what you say is true, no Republican would ever win. Yet they won big in 2010, 2011, plus 2004, 2002, and 2000.

It's always impossible to disprove a conspiracy theorist because you can always say, "Soros is just setting us up for next time."

23 posted on 09/08/2012 4:24:51 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Another troll has surfaced.


24 posted on 09/08/2012 4:30:36 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

bump


25 posted on 09/08/2012 4:40:46 AM PDT by evad (Deception & Lying. It's what they do.. It's ALL they do... And they won't stop.. EVER!!)
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To: Progov

DU must put these people through a training course, like the Rush seminar callers.


26 posted on 09/08/2012 4:57:42 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).

Whew!

And 95%+ of them will answer, "Why?" with a garble that adds up to, "Because he's black." Same thing with O.J.'s acquittal. Sometimes I think blacks are more about race than white people.

27 posted on 09/08/2012 5:08:50 AM PDT by PapaNew
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To: Progov; LS

Are you calling yourself a troll? They said your attitude was crap and then you responded and said another troll has surfaced. Frankly, there is fraud out there as several absentee ballot creators and stuffers were just busted in Alabama or something for making ballots.

Soros lost the attempt to get Att. Generals elected at the state level. I am not too worried about that “counting” that was being set up. That was some time ago. My memory is faded at this point but I know he dumped a lot of money into states to elect Dem friendly “vote overseers”.

There was just this in July with Soros and Virginia:
https://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2012/07/25/romney-camp-calls-on-ag-cuccinelli-to-investigate-soros-funded-voter-registration-effort/


28 posted on 09/08/2012 5:41:38 AM PDT by commonguymd (New media has not replaced the MSM. It has emboldened it. twitter @commonguymd)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

2008 was D+7. Of course 2012 wont have as much D enthusiasm, but they will still outnumbers R’s at the polls. D+4 seems reasonable, and Romney should act as though it will be D+7.


29 posted on 09/08/2012 5:44:26 AM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: Progov

This is an important point.

A bit of history (from Freakonomics, iirc). Jewish lawyers were traditionally squeezed out of “desirable” cases and left with things that “gentlemen lawyers” did not want to touch. They ended up doing a lot of hostile corporate takeovers, which at the time were considered to be undesirable work. With so much practice, they became very good at it.

What the Jewish lawyers learned with all this practice was how to use every possible thing they could to the advantage of their client. One of the big factors was vote counting. They learned how to challenge votes they didn’t like and get them thrown out. They learned how to make sure that “their” side was in charge of vote counting.

IMO, they have transferred this skill to politics. With Jewish voters very heavily on the Democrat side, this means that they will use every trick in the book (legal or not, ethical or not) to help their side win.

(Please note, this is not an anti-Jewish post. I am just trying to point out the facts of what has happened in the legal world and my best guess as to what is happening in politics. I think it was unjust that the Jewish lawyers were marginalized to the crappy dregs of legal work. They made the best of their situation, seized the opportunities available, and turned it to their advantage, for which I applaud them. I don’t support those over the line legally or ethically, however.)


30 posted on 09/08/2012 5:46:19 AM PDT by generally (Don't be stupid. We have politicians for that.)
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To: Truthsearcher

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/outside-the-mainstream


31 posted on 09/08/2012 5:46:42 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Progov

Progov? As in pro-government?


32 posted on 09/08/2012 5:48:23 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.

Seems the age of accountability and reason has bumped to 50 and older.

So what happened 50 years ago (1962)? What caused this change from a brave and ardent love of freedom to a weak acquiescence to socialist tyranny? How were children raised and educated after 1962 that caused this incredible shift? How did public schools go from education that included the Bible and prayer to socialist indoctrination run by socialist-loving teacher unions?

One may point to many reasons, but something socially, morally, and legally significant and catastrophic happened in 1962, and hardly anyone noticed it. Engel v. Vitale, 370 U.S. 421 (1962), the famous “establishment” case of “separation of church and state,” outlawed prayer in public schools. As Justice Stewart wrote in his dissent, “the Court says that in permitting school children to say this simple prayer, the New York authorities have established ‘an official religion’” (Engel, 370 U.S. 421).

This is where misapplication of the establishment clause to create “separation of church and state” has taken us – to the brink of Marxist tyranny, the destruction of the freedoms protected by our Constitutional Republic, and economic collapse. The fact is, the First Amendment of the Constitution NEVER RESTRICTS FREE AND PEACEFUL RELIGIOUS EXERCISE in government, out of government, or anywhere else. The Constitution ONLY RESTRICTS THE STATE from either establishing religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.

Many Christians are confused about this and have allowed the other side to dictate the terms and results in the fight for freedom. The issue today is not an establishment issue, not even close. The issue is the socialists’ use of a Jeffersonian metaphor (“separation of church and state”) in place of the text and meaning of the Constitution to push Christianity and Constitutional free exercise and expression out of government and public life. If God’s people at the foundation of our country were so timid about instilling the things of God in government, we never would have had, for example, the government buildings as well as monuments in Washington D.C. with scripture carved in stone. These artifacts as well as the Constitution itself testify against lie of “the separation of church and state” embraced by our popular culture.

The health of a government DEPENDS ON THE free exercise of religion evidenced by the history of America, probably the healthiest form of government in history. The Book of Revelation in the Bible begins with describing how God's presence is in the midst of his people, the church(es) (Rev. 1:12-3:22). It ends with a description of God's presence in the midst of His people, the holy city, the New Jerusalem (Rev 22:2). In the midst of God’s people is a "tree of life," the leaves of which are "for the healing of the nations." We, the church, institutionally and individually, have God's life and healing so desperately needed in the nations including America. The history of our nation reflects a direct relationship between the involvement of God’s people in government as well as society, and the health of our country that has flourished with individual liberty. Separating the church from the state is like separating the doctor from the patient or the medicine from the wounded. It’s up to God’s people to muster the courage and resolve to get this medicine back into the bloodstream of the dying patient.

33 posted on 09/08/2012 6:40:59 AM PDT by PapaNew
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To: The_Reader_David

I like a D+4 sample. If Romney’s up in that, then it looks better and better. Of course I’m not a fan of ARG polls. They pale compared to Rass.


34 posted on 09/08/2012 6:42:09 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

We should keep in mind how important money is in politics.

For the past few months, the Obama campaign has been spending every last dollar it’s been taking in and more on ads, while the Romney campaign has been conserving a significant portion of its funds. Yet Romney is still at least even in the polls.

No one panics if his favorite marathon runner is ‘’losing’’ by a few yards halfway through a race, since it’s assumed the runner must be conserving his energy for the final push. The race is not always to the swift but to the conservative.

It’s unlikely Obama will be taking in much money now since the Democrats alienated many Jewish contributors by booing God and Jerusalem. And there’s a limit to how many ads the Democrats can continue to buy without being able to pay for them, as they’re doing now. The future looks bright for Romney/Ryan.


35 posted on 09/08/2012 7:23:03 AM PDT by Bluestocking
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To: Bluestocking

test


36 posted on 09/08/2012 7:49:44 AM PDT by mypalsnail
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

My prediction: Obama will be lucky to get 40% of the vote.


37 posted on 09/08/2012 8:17:54 AM PDT by Jabba the Nutt (.Are they stupid, malicious or evil?)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

This poll has Romney up by 3, while Rasmussen has the Liberal Messiah up by 2. I hope this poll is the more accurate of the two.


38 posted on 09/08/2012 9:41:30 AM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: John W

We need to GOTV.

Went to a Ryan rally yesterday and we had a schmuck undercover Dem operative on our shuttle saying stuff like “this ticket isn’t nearly as exciting as four years ago with Palin” and other discouraging remarks meant to keep conservatives split from the party.

That kind of stuff trickles down to Senate races, so grassroots conservatives must be active and out there for ALL tickets and descending on battleground states to help. The Dems are doing it masterfully.


39 posted on 09/08/2012 10:09:03 AM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

That’s not what Drudge has right now....


40 posted on 09/08/2012 11:10:36 AM PDT by Fawn (DEAR JESUS....PLEASE LET OBAMA LOSE.....AMEN.)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

In 2010 it was R+1

During August 2012, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.


41 posted on 09/08/2012 11:14:30 AM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: jb729; County Agent Hank Kimball

Yes, I was just explaining this to a young man this morning. The left side is much easier to retain than the right side.

This demorat convention was all about working on the emotion driven women on the right side of the equation over control of their ovaries. All the rats need to do is get a small number of these emotion driven women to move over the line = game over.

Moving anyone from the left side of the equation is MUCH harder. Free is hard to turn down and work and responsibility are just not appealing at all if you can get enough free.

Game over. Left wins.


42 posted on 09/08/2012 11:40:05 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Half the people are below average, they voted for oblabla.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
Wait...Gallup said ZERO is ahead!!! Now what did Gallup POLLED 100% DEMS?

I think an EMPTY CHAIR could beat ZERO in NOVEMBER...

43 posted on 09/08/2012 1:38:15 PM PDT by ExCTCitizen (Yes, Obama, I had help with my business. MY CUSTOMERS!)
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To: ExCTCitizen

These polls don’t give the internals anymore. You have to pay for Gallup and Ras. They also don’t show the prior numbers which would be helpful when a three day average poll changes 8 points in one day. That seems like a 24 point swing but no one notices.


44 posted on 09/08/2012 1:46:27 PM PDT by DrDude (OBAMA/BIDEN=DUMB & DUMBER 2012)
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To: All

I think Rasmussen has Obama ahead in today’s poll.


45 posted on 09/08/2012 5:26:04 PM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: riri

How come this poll has Romney up 3 points while the Gallup and Ipsos/Reuters have Obama up 4 points, based on a rolling average? It’s all so exasperating.


46 posted on 09/08/2012 5:29:56 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: WashingtonSource

Could have something to do with the current administration suing gallup because they didn’t like the numbers.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/08/obama_holder_sledgehammer_the_first_amendment.html


47 posted on 09/08/2012 5:34:04 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Look, here is the cold hard truth. There are more potential democrat votes than republican votes in America. This is because half of Americans pay no income tax at all and a large percentage of them are on the government dole. Romney has to turnout every vote he can and do his best to suppress dem turnout by negative campaigning. That’s it. There is no conservative majority in America, the majority are the ones with their hands out. Luckily a good portion of them do not vote.


48 posted on 09/08/2012 6:37:25 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: The_Reader_David
A D+4 sample is probably close to accurate: shifting 2 percent of the sample form D to I (which is probably a little more accurate) may give Romney another percentage point

Yesterday, there was a thread stating that the party ID had changed to record highs for republicans. It was so high, there were more republicans than democrats. On top of that, if anyone thinks that the likelyness of democrats to show up at the polls being higher than republicans, they need their political heads examined. The enthusiasm for Obama is way down from 2008, and even though Romney wasn't everyone's favorite candidate, he carries more enthusiasm than McCain did.

Add up all the factors, and consider the fact that if you didn't vote for Obama last time, you aren't going to this time, and Obama is toast.

49 posted on 09/09/2012 3:54:29 AM PDT by Go Gordon (It's barack hussein obama - because he doesn't believe in capitalism.)
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To: Jabba the Nutt

Most likely even much less since most of his voters are not going to come out to vote.


50 posted on 09/09/2012 3:57:02 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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