Skip to comments.Romney leads 49% to 46% in poll of 1200 LIKELY voters taken 9/4 - 9/6, skewed towards Dems
Posted on 09/07/2012 9:53:32 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball
September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot
Likely voters Sep 4-6
Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: September 4-6, 2012
Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points Question wording: If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated)
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.
Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).
Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.
Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.
A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.
Definitely looks like BO is in a tailspin to me.
already posted 7 threads below this one
A D+4 sample is probably close to accurate: shifting 2 percent of the sample form D to I (which is probably a little more accurate) may give Romney another percentage point, but the difference it makes isn’t just less than the margin of error, it’s within rounding error.
Rasmussen does regular party ID surveys to update his models, and his last (about a week ago) was exactly opposite: R - 38%; D - 34%
That’s a huge swing.
interesting with over sample of dems the margin could be even bigger. no wonder O looked so constipated
It doesn’t matter.
This election will be decided in about 10-15 counties containing large union presence in battleground states.
When the Republican party, conservatives, and libertarians band together to figure out a way to counter unions driving their folks to the polls, checking that they voted, declare early voting unconstitutional in national general elections, etc. then MAYBE we have a shot.
The ground game, not the opinion game, is the one everyone must learn how to play to win.
Drudge links to a poll that shows the Obamanation with a post-convention bump that puts him ahead of Romney 46-44%.
bears repeating IMO ;)
In 2004, Zogby had the same aura of mystique that Nate Silver currently carries now.
That’s an Internet poll
That declaration sounds very astute and all but its still the economy stupid and Obama is going down very hard.
“Reagan democrats” are horrified at what they saw at the RAT convention.
“Martha... those people are not us...”
If the party ID is really +4 Rep. Then R/R will win this thing going away.
I’m not convinced it is though. Especially since Rasmussen is the only one using those numbers.
2008 election accuracy— they were pretty good, only slightly tipped to Obama:http://americanresearchgroup.com/ratings/2008/uspresident/
We bring jobs, and O doesn’t.
Polls don’t mean didly.........remember I keep saying, “It’s not who votes, it’s who COUNTS the votes.”
And with Soros’s people counting the votes in Spain, guess who will surface as the winner? Sure as hell won’t be a Repub. At least that’s my take on this whole mess but I hope I am wrong.
Note also-—a good point by another Freeper-—this poll includes a landline/ cell split (83/17, with Romney up 4 on landlines, down 3 on cells) so the overall numbers seem pretty valid and seem to reiterate Rasmussen’s.
It's always impossible to disprove a conspiracy theorist because you can always say, "Soros is just setting us up for next time."
Another troll has surfaced.
DU must put these people through a training course, like the Rush seminar callers.
And 95%+ of them will answer, "Why?" with a garble that adds up to, "Because he's black." Same thing with O.J.'s acquittal. Sometimes I think blacks are more about race than white people.
Are you calling yourself a troll? They said your attitude was crap and then you responded and said another troll has surfaced. Frankly, there is fraud out there as several absentee ballot creators and stuffers were just busted in Alabama or something for making ballots.
Soros lost the attempt to get Att. Generals elected at the state level. I am not too worried about that “counting” that was being set up. That was some time ago. My memory is faded at this point but I know he dumped a lot of money into states to elect Dem friendly “vote overseers”.
There was just this in July with Soros and Virginia:
2008 was D+7. Of course 2012 wont have as much D enthusiasm, but they will still outnumbers R’s at the polls. D+4 seems reasonable, and Romney should act as though it will be D+7.
This is an important point.
A bit of history (from Freakonomics, iirc). Jewish lawyers were traditionally squeezed out of “desirable” cases and left with things that “gentlemen lawyers” did not want to touch. They ended up doing a lot of hostile corporate takeovers, which at the time were considered to be undesirable work. With so much practice, they became very good at it.
What the Jewish lawyers learned with all this practice was how to use every possible thing they could to the advantage of their client. One of the big factors was vote counting. They learned how to challenge votes they didn’t like and get them thrown out. They learned how to make sure that “their” side was in charge of vote counting.
IMO, they have transferred this skill to politics. With Jewish voters very heavily on the Democrat side, this means that they will use every trick in the book (legal or not, ethical or not) to help their side win.
(Please note, this is not an anti-Jewish post. I am just trying to point out the facts of what has happened in the legal world and my best guess as to what is happening in politics. I think it was unjust that the Jewish lawyers were marginalized to the crappy dregs of legal work. They made the best of their situation, seized the opportunities available, and turned it to their advantage, for which I applaud them. I don’t support those over the line legally or ethically, however.)
Progov? As in pro-government?
Seems the age of accountability and reason has bumped to 50 and older.
So what happened 50 years ago (1962)? What caused this change from a brave and ardent love of freedom to a weak acquiescence to socialist tyranny? How were children raised and educated after 1962 that caused this incredible shift? How did public schools go from education that included the Bible and prayer to socialist indoctrination run by socialist-loving teacher unions?
One may point to many reasons, but something socially, morally, and legally significant and catastrophic happened in 1962, and hardly anyone noticed it. Engel v. Vitale, 370 U.S. 421 (1962), the famous establishment case of separation of church and state, outlawed prayer in public schools. As Justice Stewart wrote in his dissent, the Court says that in permitting school children to say this simple prayer, the New York authorities have established an official religion (Engel, 370 U.S. 421).
This is where misapplication of the establishment clause to create separation of church and state has taken us to the brink of Marxist tyranny, the destruction of the freedoms protected by our Constitutional Republic, and economic collapse. The fact is, the First Amendment of the Constitution NEVER RESTRICTS FREE AND PEACEFUL RELIGIOUS EXERCISE in government, out of government, or anywhere else. The Constitution ONLY RESTRICTS THE STATE from either establishing religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.
Many Christians are confused about this and have allowed the other side to dictate the terms and results in the fight for freedom. The issue today is not an establishment issue, not even close. The issue is the socialists use of a Jeffersonian metaphor (separation of church and state) in place of the text and meaning of the Constitution to push Christianity and Constitutional free exercise and expression out of government and public life. If Gods people at the foundation of our country were so timid about instilling the things of God in government, we never would have had, for example, the government buildings as well as monuments in Washington D.C. with scripture carved in stone. These artifacts as well as the Constitution itself testify against lie of the separation of church and state embraced by our popular culture.
The health of a government DEPENDS ON THE free exercise of religion evidenced by the history of America, probably the healthiest form of government in history. The Book of Revelation in the Bible begins with describing how God's presence is in the midst of his people, the church(es) (Rev. 1:12-3:22). It ends with a description of God's presence in the midst of His people, the holy city, the New Jerusalem (Rev 22:2). In the midst of Gods people is a "tree of life," the leaves of which are "for the healing of the nations." We, the church, institutionally and individually, have God's life and healing so desperately needed in the nations including America. The history of our nation reflects a direct relationship between the involvement of Gods people in government as well as society, and the health of our country that has flourished with individual liberty. Separating the church from the state is like separating the doctor from the patient or the medicine from the wounded. Its up to Gods people to muster the courage and resolve to get this medicine back into the bloodstream of the dying patient.
I like a D+4 sample. If Romney’s up in that, then it looks better and better. Of course I’m not a fan of ARG polls. They pale compared to Rass.
We should keep in mind how important money is in politics.
For the past few months, the Obama campaign has been spending every last dollar it’s been taking in and more on ads, while the Romney campaign has been conserving a significant portion of its funds. Yet Romney is still at least even in the polls.
No one panics if his favorite marathon runner is ‘’losing’’ by a few yards halfway through a race, since it’s assumed the runner must be conserving his energy for the final push. The race is not always to the swift but to the conservative.
It’s unlikely Obama will be taking in much money now since the Democrats alienated many Jewish contributors by booing God and Jerusalem. And there’s a limit to how many ads the Democrats can continue to buy without being able to pay for them, as they’re doing now. The future looks bright for Romney/Ryan.
My prediction: Obama will be lucky to get 40% of the vote.
This poll has Romney up by 3, while Rasmussen has the Liberal Messiah up by 2. I hope this poll is the more accurate of the two.
We need to GOTV.
Went to a Ryan rally yesterday and we had a schmuck undercover Dem operative on our shuttle saying stuff like “this ticket isn’t nearly as exciting as four years ago with Palin” and other discouraging remarks meant to keep conservatives split from the party.
That kind of stuff trickles down to Senate races, so grassroots conservatives must be active and out there for ALL tickets and descending on battleground states to help. The Dems are doing it masterfully.
That’s not what Drudge has right now....
In 2010 it was R+1
During August 2012, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. Thats up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. Its also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.
Yes, I was just explaining this to a young man this morning. The left side is much easier to retain than the right side.
This demorat convention was all about working on the emotion driven women on the right side of the equation over control of their ovaries. All the rats need to do is get a small number of these emotion driven women to move over the line = game over.
Moving anyone from the left side of the equation is MUCH harder. Free is hard to turn down and work and responsibility are just not appealing at all if you can get enough free.
Game over. Left wins.
I think an EMPTY CHAIR could beat ZERO in NOVEMBER...
These polls don’t give the internals anymore. You have to pay for Gallup and Ras. They also don’t show the prior numbers which would be helpful when a three day average poll changes 8 points in one day. That seems like a 24 point swing but no one notices.
I think Rasmussen has Obama ahead in today’s poll.
How come this poll has Romney up 3 points while the Gallup and Ipsos/Reuters have Obama up 4 points, based on a rolling average? It’s all so exasperating.
Could have something to do with the current administration suing gallup because they didn’t like the numbers.
Look, here is the cold hard truth. There are more potential democrat votes than republican votes in America. This is because half of Americans pay no income tax at all and a large percentage of them are on the government dole. Romney has to turnout every vote he can and do his best to suppress dem turnout by negative campaigning. That’s it. There is no conservative majority in America, the majority are the ones with their hands out. Luckily a good portion of them do not vote.
Yesterday, there was a thread stating that the party ID had changed to record highs for republicans. It was so high, there were more republicans than democrats. On top of that, if anyone thinks that the likelyness of democrats to show up at the polls being higher than republicans, they need their political heads examined. The enthusiasm for Obama is way down from 2008, and even though Romney wasn't everyone's favorite candidate, he carries more enthusiasm than McCain did.
Add up all the factors, and consider the fact that if you didn't vote for Obama last time, you aren't going to this time, and Obama is toast.
Most likely even much less since most of his voters are not going to come out to vote.