Posted on 09/08/2012 10:09:39 AM PDT by Chi-townChief
I wrote a few days ago that if the Democrats could maintain the enthusiasm they showed on the first day of their convention for all three days, Mitt Romney would be in serious trouble.
They did, and he is.
If this is not what the polls currently show, try to remember that polls are not destiny. And you should not let them shape it.
Democratic enthusiasm — real fire-in-the-belly enthusiasm — is a killer for Romney for one big reason: There is no sizable pro-Romney movement in this country. There has been a sizable anti-Obama movement.
There are relatively few Republicans deeply in love with Romney. (I except his family, friends and paid staff.)
There never has been. Romney won his nomination by being the most electable general election candidate in a weak and whacky primary field.
He won, in other words, not by devotion, but by default.
His campaign is fueled by dislike for and disappointment with Barack Obama. That dislike and disappointment is real.
In 1996, the last time a Democratic president ran for reelection, there was a significant anti-Bill Clinton movement in this country. This was before the Monica Lewinsky scandal. But a lot of right-wingers hated Bill Clinton and felt he was guilty of unspeakable crimes like murder and drug-trafficking. That didn’t mean there was a significant pro-Bob Dole movement, however. And Clinton won easily by 8.5 percentage points.
This is not 1996, the economy is bad, the cast of characters has changed and nobody is going to win by 8.5 percentage points. But the dynamic is the same: It is harder to turn out a vote against someone than a vote for someone.
Anger is not a movement. Disappointment is not a cause. And passionate support is an antidote to both.
Except for a very sloppy bobble over their platform, the Democrats staged a masterful convention. It went from Michelle to Bill to Biden and Barack. The emotion built every night and something very unusual was revealed.
There has been a shocking transformation in the American political landscape.
As Jeff Zeleny of The New York Times tweeted Thursday night: “A striking difference between conventions: Military service, patriotism are center stage at Democratic convention and nearly absent at GOP.”
Virtually overnight, the Democrats have become the party of strength and loyalty to country. This is a huge role reversal.
And Mitt Romney gave the Democrats an opening by what he said — or, rather, failed to say — in his acceptance speech in Tampa last week.
As Sen. John Kerry, Democrat from Massachusetts, said in Charlotte, N.C., Thursday night: “No nominee for president should ever fail in the midst of a war to pay tribute to our troops overseas in his acceptance speech. They are on the front lines every day defending America, and they deserve our thanks.”
The Democrats have also elevated the killing of Osama bin Laden to an actual difference between the two candidates.
Joe Biden said: “When [Romney] was asked about bin Laden in 2007, he said, and I quote, ‘It’s not worth moving heaven and earth, and spending billions of dollars, just trying to catch one person.’ He was wrong.”
Biden said that “Barack understood that the search for bin Laden was about a lot more than taking a monstrous leader off the battlefield.” It was about sending a message “to terrorists around the world — if you attack innocent Americans, we will follow you to the ends of the earth!”
Love and toughness, those were the two themes the Democrats ended their convention with.
“This man has courage in his soul, compassion in his heart and steel in his spine,” Biden said of Obama.
And when it came time for Obama to speak, he made clear that toughness meant facing up to a tough road ahead. He even dared a restatement of John F. Kennedy’s famous “ask not” line.
“America is not about what can be done for us, but what can be done by us,” Obama said.
“I won’t pretend the path I’m offering is quick or easy,” he continued. “I never have…. And the truth is, it will take more than a few years for us to solve challenges that have built up over decades.”
Obama, like the other speakers, portrayed the Republicans as doomsayers who were selling short the strength and resolve of the American people.
“Our problems can be solved,” Obama said. “Our challenges can be met. The path we offer may be harder, but it leads to a better place.”
It leads, he hopes, to four more years in the White House.
Roger Simon is POLITICO’s chief political columnist
pure nonsense
Wow. And they call themselves the smart people.
” There has been a sizable anti-Obama movement”
WELL at least they admit it
All that talk of abortions and condoms sure got the ‘RAT freeloaders fired up, right Roger?.
This guy needs to lay off the Kool-Aid.
“I wrote a few days ago that if the Democrats could maintain the enthusiasm they showed on the first day of their convention for all three days, Mitt Romney would be in serious trouble.
They did, and he is.”
I laughed out loud in exasperation and stopped reading. These people are out of their minds! I am not amused by them. They are our enemies!
This is why having Clint and Rubio before Romney after 10pm was a huge mistake, instead of that extraordinary family video worthy of Ken Burns that NO ONE saw at 9:45. My wife and I could never stand Mittens, but were captivated by the 8mm clips with an exasperated Ann chasing the kids and cheap Mitt putting the wrong lightbulb in a lamp and then using foil to block the light. It was amazing, and would have entranced America. But instead we got the Clint distraction, which I enjoyed, and the lackluster Rubio speech, which few enjoyed and which existed solely to pander to Hispanics. The Romney folks simply blew it.
I expect Obama to win.
If Romney loses, the GOP will disintegrate.
“Fake Polls, Fake Polls, watcha gonna do when nobody with a brain believes in you?” (To the Tune of Bad Boys)
Every objective measure says Obama is losing badly; from number of donors to his shrinking crowds, (Eastwooded by 77,000 empty seats..)etc. But the “polls” will claim its a close race from now to election...
Hint, when they have to over-sample democrats by an average of double digits it’s not a close race.
Tell me Roger... What color is the sky in your world?
Number of Republicans (vs. Democrats) in America Reaches Record High - Rasmussen
Aug ‘12 +4.3%
Nov ‘10 +1.3%
Nov ‘08 -7.6%
Nov ‘04 -1.6%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
I really listened to Romney and Ryan .... and now I will be voting FOR them.
I caught a replay of Romney's visit to Iowa yesterday on C-Span, and damn it...he has thought this through, he really does have a plan, and I sat there realizing this is the right man for the times.
I want R/R to win even more than I want Obama to lose ... and that, my friends is QUITE a lot!
From the far-off and cool neutral air of the Czech Republic, I agree with you.
I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d put my money on Obama for re-election.
The GOP will retain the House of Representatives, and I think the Democratic Party will just barely retain the Senate (and that would be largely because of VP Biden).
That’s just how I see it breaking down.
I don’t necessarily know if the “GOP will disintegrate” if Romney loses, but I think there will be some kind of intra-party warfare in the GOP between the TeaParty/Social Conservative faction and the moderate factions. If the GOP powers-that-be get their way, I’d expect the TP/SoCon faction to be purged from the GOP, and they in turn will go on to lay the groundwork for their own political party.
Bull pucky; this guy is writing out his fantasy life from somewhere beyond alpha centauri.
great pic !
Jim Jones Kool Aid Party orchestrated by the Left. LOL
The hope for America is captured by that picture. Focus and getting down to business.
Did you really expect the Obama shills in the media would be kind to ANY Republican?? Did you truly believe they would have been favored say Newt over Obama??
Yes, I reacted the same way. It's not about our perfect or imperfect candidate (although I was greatly disappointed that we picked Romney as our standard bearer), it is about the future of our nation. We are precariously close to the tipping point. This is my 11th presidential campaign and I have never been so anxious about the future.
“I expect Obama to win. If Romney loses, the GOP will disintegrate.”
Roger Simon is the one of the worst of the worst JournOlists/presstitutes and I read his articles with that in mind. Flop sweat is what I sense these days with his lies. ITWOMS (In the words of Martha Stewart), It’s a good thing.
Yeah - it’s kind of sad that Romney has what used to be considered good qualities: humility and dignity. But people now prefer a self-important blowhard jackass like 0bama. Times have not changed for the better in that regard.
Same here, I was voting against Obama and now I am voting for R/R.....huge for me as well....
AFAIK, the following facts are TRUE:
1. Republicans now outnumber Democrats in terms of total registrations.
2. The majority, if not all, of the polls show Romney winning the Independent vote by at least a small margin and in many cases a substantial margin.
Given that, the only way that Obama can lead in any poll that has a honest turnout model (R or D by +1 or so) is for more Republicans to vote for Obama than Democrats vote for Romney. Personally, I believe that in not a possibility.
So I’m stuck. I have no answer. But I still trust Rasmussen, I just can’t explain his results.
The reaqsons for "The Divine One's" victory being "The Divine One" has a lock on the black, Mexican, Asiatic Jewish, and degenerate white votes.(I.E. the Marin County, California Liberals, Gays!). Romney comes across as a nonentity. The Republicans talk vague generalities while the Demoncrats promise specific benefits NOW! People need cash NOW not Free Enterprise tomorrow. The Democrats will enjoy the benefits of massive voter fraud. The incumbent always has the stronger position. The Democrats are far more cohesive and creative than the Republicans. Democrats know what they want.
Romney is going to lose. Do you think Soros with his Spanish machines is going to allow Obamaloney to lose.
I think that is a part of this Gallup threat by Axelrod.
If polls are saying Obamaloney is winning, then when Soros pulls the switch and changes the vote. They can say look i told you we were ahead.
As Sarah Palin rescued John McCain from what would have been a really disasterous rout into a merely lost election, Paul Ryan will close a LOT of the gap that Mitt Romney had in relation to the inertial forces in politics that favor Obama/Biden.
Obama/Biden have their own problems with public perception, which fuels the desire for “ABO” with the general voting public, but it is largely up to Mitt Romney himself to close the sale. Soft words and reliance fo gentle persuasion will not do it. A Chris Christie attack-dog assault on the known and glaringly obvious errors and lack of judgment by the Current Regime in the White Hut would be the hard-sell strategy that is a much more sure means of securing the needed majority of voters, and most importantly, the few really important voters in the swing states (and there may be more swing states out there than anybody is now predicting).
True, the lesser of two evils is still evil, but how do we determine the degree and intensity of evil? Because that is all we are now being offered, and one’s definition of “evil” may well be another’s definition of “virtue”.
Two attacks then, one is on the presence of evil, and the other is on the very definition of “evil”. Not only must the other side’s agenda be declared as evil in many of its applications, WHY it is evil must also be determined and explained, in simple language. We are dealing with the American public, after all, and much of that public is not well-informed. That Jeffersonian ideal has been eclipsed over much of the past century.
So we are left with 15-second sound bites and video images.
Make them count. And if that means pulling out all the stops, then do not shrink from the task.
Romney is going to lose. Do you think Soros with his Spanish machines is going to allow Obamaloney to lose.
I think that is a part of this Gallup threat by Axelrod.
If polls are saying Obamaloney is winning, then when Soros pulls the switch and changes the vote. They can say look i told you we were ahead.
Oh, how CUUUUTE!!!
You actually BELIEVE the words of a politician during an election campaign? Everyone, come here! Look at this one! Isn't that precious??
(Hint: Obama, Dubya, and Clinton made plenty of promises as well. Few of the public supporters of any of those 3 were terribly pleased by their presidencies. Obama's secret financiers and race-pimps are clearly pleased, of course, but few others.)
somebody had a tall glass of DWS with a BS chaser.
Thanks for your much encouraging words.
Up to this point Ryan and Romney have been playing Cassandra to Obama's gift horse. It didn't work out well for Cassandra, she never even got the chance to say "I told you so!"
Voters don't want to hear this. They want to hear conviction in a candidate's voice that he will make things better, they want to see, in their mind's eye, an image of a prosperous and peaceable future. They want reassurance of our strength and potential.
If the Romney campaign doesn't address this essential psychology he may lose. At this point it's his to lose.
I read today that 'bam's is moving in this direction and I fear he may take the high ground.
If they had generated 70,000 folk before they cancelled the outside shingding a day before the rally, don’t you think those folk who were bused from other cities and states, which were on their way to the football stadium, would have being standing miles outside the convention arena trying to get. It was a fairy tale and they KNEW they couldn’t fill the stadium! This was a disaster for them, they only had a few hundred in the overflow room! So where were the thousands? Don’t be fooled my friends, these folks along with Politico are in denial and their report is pure BULLCRAP! KEEP THE FAITH FOLKS. Don’t let these bastards fool you or demoralize you!! Who are you going to believe your eyes or their deceiving account of the convention? WE KNEW THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN...so gird up and stay the course... HAVE FAITH...God will help us!!
There’s a thread with a live feed of Romney’s rally going on now in Virginia.
Take a look and a listen.
This guy is INSANE@!@
Get back on your meds, fool.
How does the Moron in Chief get a bump when nobody watched the stupid convention.
Wrong. Romney won by being Politico's choice. DUring the primaries Politico spent thousands of man hours trashing the rest of the field and barely scratched Romney.
I said I would not vote for that idiot Romney unless pigs where flying. I don’t know why but every time I point one out to others they don’t look quick enough to catch a glimpse?
Over there it may not be possible to get a real sense of the quiet desperation, anger and resolve of most Americans to replace Obama. It’s real, measurable and Romney is going to win handily.
It’s a life or death mission. Thy Will Not Mine be Done
Sadly Simon is right. It looks like Romney is in trouble. Dispite what we all thought was a disaterous convention, todays tracking polls (Rasmussen and Gallup) show a huge bounce for 0bama.
I think I know why. This is not 1980. People aren’t worried about the issues. It’s image. People want a “cool” President. To people, Clinton and 0bama are “cool”. Clinton the studly President who got laid in the oval office. 0bama, the hip, fist bumping, hip hop President. Romney, on the other hand, is just to white for people. It’s sad. So many whites are ashamed of being white. Look how many try to act ethnic these days.
This is what it’s coming down to and we will pay the price as 0bama is handily re-elected by the droves of ethnic voters and white voters who wish they were ethnic. I really see no way for Romney to overcome this.
Maybe it’s fear talking, but this is how it seems out there. I pray I am wrong.
Bounces are normal, it has only been a few days for crying out loud. A poll right after the DNC convetion and people are giving up? LOL That’s stupid.
The economic realitys are impossible for Obama to escape.
Yes, it’s still the economy stupid. It always has been.
Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
I don’t see Obama’s bounce as “huge”, it’s average. Romney also received an average bounce. The reality is that this is going to be a very, very close election. Probably closer than 2000.
I really listened to Romney and Ryan .... and now I will be voting FOR them.
I feel the exact same way. One other thing struck me about Romney and that's his obvious love for America. After four years of hearing veiled (and not so veiled) talk of American imperialism, racism, non-exceptionalism and (insert favorite ism here), it's downright refreshing to hear a candidate proclaim his love for this country.
I was interviewed by the Gallop Poll in 1976 (live, in-person, hour-long interview). In 1976, I was 24 and I was already pissed off at the RINOs and wanted to send them a message knowing that I was speaking for maybe millions of people.
So I lied. I said I was voting for Jimmy Carter even though I had no intention of voting for Jimmy Carter. It didn't work - Jerry Ford got even more wishy-washy after that and he lost.
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