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(Rasmussen) Partisan Trends: Number of Republicans in America Reaches Record High (Repubs at +4.3)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 1 Sep 12 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 09/08/2012 3:09:23 PM PDT by xzins

After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. ...snip

Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; affiliation; democrat; partisan; republican

1 posted on 09/08/2012 3:09:30 PM PDT by xzins
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To: scbison

ping


2 posted on 09/08/2012 3:10:00 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: All

should have included the numbers link, too

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


3 posted on 09/08/2012 3:11:55 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

The Dems have gone so far left that people are now waking up to what the party is really about.

Lets not forget that many Dems who are registered are too lazy to even vote and if there is an election wit no black perosn on the ballot then many blacks stay at home too.


4 posted on 09/08/2012 3:13:20 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: xzins

This is odd, coupled with Rasmussen showing OZero suddenly ahead.


5 posted on 09/08/2012 3:13:55 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: Ingtar

It could mean any number of things, to include:

1. Zero got a bounce

2. That polling to determine what party a person “feels” he’s a part of will give consistent, but varying numbers. (Party ID is a big squishy)

3. That independents might have been the ones that liked Obama’s convention.


6 posted on 09/08/2012 3:16:38 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Ingtar
Ras intentionally oversampled Dems by +2 to show a Bounce because he thought there should be one !

Yes that was his reasoning.

These polls are all pure crap !

I wish I knew the real internal polls versus this BS propaganda !

7 posted on 09/08/2012 3:18:11 PM PDT by ncalburt (NO MORE WIMPS need to apply to fight the Soros Funded Puppet !H)
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To: xzins

Even more disturbing if Obama is leading among likely voters with a R+4 sample. Ugh.


8 posted on 09/08/2012 3:30:25 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: xzins
I heard a while ago on FOX News that Jimmy Carter had a 13 point bounce coming out of the convention in 1980. Eight years later Dukakis had an 18 point bounce.
9 posted on 09/08/2012 3:32:10 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: xzins

Have the pollsters adjusted their sampling to match the new percentages? From what I’ve been reading, the answer is “No.”


10 posted on 09/08/2012 3:43:53 PM PDT by matt1234 (Bring back the HUAC.)
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To: Brad from Tennessee

I remember those bounces....and the eventual outcome. Bounces are fickle and meaningless.


11 posted on 09/08/2012 3:44:42 PM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: Brad from Tennessee

People shouldn’t worry about the polls coming out this weekend.

Obama won’t have his wife and Bill Clintion in prime time in the weeks to come.


12 posted on 09/08/2012 3:46:56 PM PDT by goodolemr
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To: xzins

“Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%”


Shoudn’t the sampling of polls reflect this breakdown of voters as opposed to having the dems up a few points? This is more reflective of the upcoming election as opposed to the 2008 election (whose voter breakdowns are used today to sample many polls)


13 posted on 09/08/2012 3:49:09 PM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: ncalburt
Rasmussen just said in this article that he gives the republicans a 4.3% weighting over democrats.

That means he did NOT oversample dems by +2. These are his numbers for this year. He is by far the most fair of the pollsters.

Republican Democrat Other R - D Quarterly
2012
Aug 37.6% 33.3% 29.2% 4.3%
Jul 34.9% 34.0% 31.1% 0.9%
Jun 35.4% 34.0% 30.5% 1.4% 1.8%
May 35.7% 33.8% 30.5% 1.9%
Apr 35.1% 33.1% 31.8% 2.0%
Mar 36.4% 33.4% 30.2% 3.0% 3.3%
Feb 36.0% 32.4% 31.6% 3.6%
Jan 35.9% 32.5% 31.6% 3.4%

14 posted on 09/08/2012 3:50:03 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

Correct me if I’m wrong. But it would seem to me that all these polls that have this thing close or BO ahead are probably not using correct samples. Don’t most of them question more Democrats than Republicans?


15 posted on 09/08/2012 3:52:28 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: matt1234

The other pollsters don’t use Rasmussen’s results. They use their own. They also use “history” and “census data” to refine (special sauce) their party affiliation numbers.


16 posted on 09/08/2012 3:52:39 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Brad from Tennessee

“I heard a while ago on FOX News that Jimmy Carter had a 13 point bounce coming out of the convention in 1980. Eight years later Dukakis had an 18 point bounce. “

And imagine if FR was around back then? Half of the people here would have a shotgun in their mouths.


17 posted on 09/08/2012 3:53:55 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: nhwingut

I don’t think more people call themselves Republican because they like BO.


18 posted on 09/08/2012 3:55:07 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: rushmom

Let’s say they randomly question 2000 in a night based on other demographics like sex, age, income, etc..

They then determine which are republicans, democrats, and others.

Then they take their weightings, in this case 37, 33, 29 and randomly select 37% republicans, 33% democrats, and 29% others until they reach their desired sample size. I believe Rasmussen’s rolling is 1500.

That’s my understanding of how this works. I’m no pollster, so I’m open to correction.


19 posted on 09/08/2012 3:58:36 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: goodolemr; TMA62
Gallup's final Nov. 1 poll for the 2004 presidential race:

Bush 49% Kerry 49%

Final results were:

Bush 50.7% Kerry 48.3%

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922901.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/13873/final-poll-shows-presidential-race-dead-heat.aspx

20 posted on 09/08/2012 4:00:18 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: goodolemr

I totally agree with that, goodolemr.

Convention bounces are notoriously short-lived. For a while there in 2008, even John McCain was ahead.


21 posted on 09/08/2012 4:00:49 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

We have the debates, 2 more jobs reports, the FED meeting, 8 weeks of campaigning and the October Surprise ahead.

Lots of roller coaster left. No need to panic.


22 posted on 09/08/2012 4:08:21 PM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik (In a tornado, even turkeys can fly.)
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To: xzins

The question I ask myself when reading these polls that show Obama ahead is - what has changed since 2010? If the economy hasn’t gotten any better since 2010, why would anyone believe that the election results in 2012 will be different from what they were in 2010?


23 posted on 09/08/2012 4:11:19 PM PDT by vbmoneyspender
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To: vbmoneyspender

The only people who voted in 2010 a non Presidential election

were the people P O d about Obamacare and the stimulus.

i.e. The Tea Party.

It was easy to throw the bums out.

Now, we have American idol and mushy people voting. Because they
vote in Presidential elections.

That’s Obama’s strategy. The inertia effect.

But Romney better start his BLITZKRIEG NOW.


24 posted on 09/08/2012 4:19:32 PM PDT by preamble
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To: SnuffaBolshevik

And a couple of hundred million dollars in campaign ads aimed at the swing states.......


25 posted on 09/08/2012 4:24:19 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: preamble
Obama’s Enthusiasm Deficit Could Soon Haunt Him
26 posted on 09/08/2012 4:27:08 PM PDT by vbmoneyspender
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To: vbmoneyspender

Because there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2010. It makes a world of a difference.


27 posted on 09/08/2012 4:43:23 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Brad from Tennessee

Carter also had a 30% approval rating by the end of July ‘80. The campaign poll numbers reflected unease about Reagan as he had been pilloried as a press agent for WW3. Romney has at least 3 problems to overcome. Obama’s approvals go no lower than 40. Romney has not satisfied voters that Obama’s attacks are bogus. Romney unlike Reagan has not produced any kind of idea of what America will look like under a Romney presidency. Also Carter was an outsider who had to fend off the Left challenge for the nomination provided by teddy. Obama has no such problem with today’s dems.I think it will be Obama by Bush ‘04 numbers.


28 posted on 09/08/2012 4:43:29 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: xzins

Oh really? Yet dims are constantly over sampled in most polls by what? 3% or 8%?
Total crap and why are these “pollsters” still in business?


29 posted on 09/08/2012 4:46:08 PM PDT by matginzac
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To: nhwingut
Even more disturbing if Obama is leading among likely voters with a R+4 sample. Ugh.

I don't think he is doing that but we could use an update from anyone who actually knows what Raz is currently using for his Turnout Model.

30 posted on 09/08/2012 4:55:24 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: xkaydet65

The other guy in that 1980 race was liberal Republican John Anderson who got 6.6 percent of the vote.


31 posted on 09/08/2012 5:18:47 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: matginzac

Rasmussen DOES use his own numbers.

The others use their own numbers + historical and census data in some kind of secret sauce.


32 posted on 09/08/2012 5:20:14 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

And a majority from a different poll say Zero doesn’t deserve another term.

He didn’t deserve a first one, either, in case anyone wants to poll me.

Thanks xzins.


33 posted on 09/08/2012 5:23:04 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: InterceptPoint

IIRC Ras is using a D+3 model other are higher.

the ARG poll yesterday showed Romney +3 with a +4D sample.

If the numbers are like 2010 (R&D 35% I30% and apply this to the polls it comes out Romney +6. Which is the same as the CU economic model predicts.


34 posted on 09/08/2012 5:48:43 PM PDT by Leto
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To: BlueStateRightist
there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2010

Nor is there a cool black guy on the ticket in 2012.

35 posted on 09/08/2012 6:47:48 PM PDT by vbmoneyspender
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To: manc

How many of those Dems are people indoctrinated over 12-16+ years by government schooling?

Vouchers are the first step to educational liberty. The second is getting government out of the business of defining what is and isn’t an education.


36 posted on 09/09/2012 7:08:02 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: xzins

This is an August poll Xzins. I’d be curious to see one for September. Hopefully, Rasmussen will release one in early October.

We need to stay +4% and capture just 43% of those “Independents” and we can hold the Congress for generations.


37 posted on 09/09/2012 7:16:25 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: VanDeKoik
Half of the people here would have a shotgun in their mouths.

LOL. And the other half would be holding it.

38 posted on 09/09/2012 7:29:02 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: BlueStateRightist

“Because there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2010. It makes a world of a difference.”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Actually there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2008 either, just a ridiculous Barry Halfwhite.


39 posted on 09/09/2012 12:17:42 PM PDT by RipSawyer
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To: vbmoneyspender

“If the economy hasn’t gotten any better since 2010, why would anyone believe that the election results in 2012 will be different from what they were in 2010?”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Simple, we elected a GOP house in ‘10 and we still have problems so that proves it was all really Bush’s fault. See how easy that was?


40 posted on 09/09/2012 2:18:36 PM PDT by RipSawyer
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To: RipSawyer

“Actually there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2008 either, just a ridiculous Barry Halfwhite.”

Actually, “articulate” Barry Halfwhite is the type of black guy that white liberals most covet. He provides them cover for their racist guilt. To reject him now would shatter their most dearly held misconceptions about black people being completely equal, and the success of affirmative action.


41 posted on 09/09/2012 5:14:12 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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