Skip to comments.(Rasmussen) Partisan Trends: Number of Republicans in America Reaches Record High (Repubs at +4.3)
Posted on 09/08/2012 3:09:23 PM PDT by xzins
After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.
During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. Thats up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. Its also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. ...snip
Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
should have included the numbers link, too
The Dems have gone so far left that people are now waking up to what the party is really about.
Lets not forget that many Dems who are registered are too lazy to even vote and if there is an election wit no black perosn on the ballot then many blacks stay at home too.
This is odd, coupled with Rasmussen showing OZero suddenly ahead.
It could mean any number of things, to include:
1. Zero got a bounce
2. That polling to determine what party a person “feels” he’s a part of will give consistent, but varying numbers. (Party ID is a big squishy)
3. That independents might have been the ones that liked Obama’s convention.
Yes that was his reasoning.
These polls are all pure crap !
I wish I knew the real internal polls versus this BS propaganda !
Even more disturbing if Obama is leading among likely voters with a R+4 sample. Ugh.
Have the pollsters adjusted their sampling to match the new percentages? From what I’ve been reading, the answer is “No.”
I remember those bounces....and the eventual outcome. Bounces are fickle and meaningless.
People shouldn’t worry about the polls coming out this weekend.
Obama won’t have his wife and Bill Clintion in prime time in the weeks to come.
“Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%”
Shoudn’t the sampling of polls reflect this breakdown of voters as opposed to having the dems up a few points? This is more reflective of the upcoming election as opposed to the 2008 election (whose voter breakdowns are used today to sample many polls)
That means he did NOT oversample dems by +2. These are his numbers for this year. He is by far the most fair of the pollsters.
|Republican||Democrat||Other||R - D||Quarterly|
Correct me if I’m wrong. But it would seem to me that all these polls that have this thing close or BO ahead are probably not using correct samples. Don’t most of them question more Democrats than Republicans?
The other pollsters don’t use Rasmussen’s results. They use their own. They also use “history” and “census data” to refine (special sauce) their party affiliation numbers.
“I heard a while ago on FOX News that Jimmy Carter had a 13 point bounce coming out of the convention in 1980. Eight years later Dukakis had an 18 point bounce. “
And imagine if FR was around back then? Half of the people here would have a shotgun in their mouths.
I don’t think more people call themselves Republican because they like BO.
Let’s say they randomly question 2000 in a night based on other demographics like sex, age, income, etc..
They then determine which are republicans, democrats, and others.
Then they take their weightings, in this case 37, 33, 29 and randomly select 37% republicans, 33% democrats, and 29% others until they reach their desired sample size. I believe Rasmussen’s rolling is 1500.
That’s my understanding of how this works. I’m no pollster, so I’m open to correction.
Bush 49% Kerry 49%
Final results were:
Bush 50.7% Kerry 48.3%
I totally agree with that, goodolemr.
Convention bounces are notoriously short-lived. For a while there in 2008, even John McCain was ahead.
We have the debates, 2 more jobs reports, the FED meeting, 8 weeks of campaigning and the October Surprise ahead.
Lots of roller coaster left. No need to panic.
The question I ask myself when reading these polls that show Obama ahead is - what has changed since 2010? If the economy hasn’t gotten any better since 2010, why would anyone believe that the election results in 2012 will be different from what they were in 2010?
The only people who voted in 2010 a non Presidential election
were the people P O d about Obamacare and the stimulus.
i.e. The Tea Party.
It was easy to throw the bums out.
Now, we have American idol and mushy people voting. Because they
vote in Presidential elections.
That’s Obama’s strategy. The inertia effect.
But Romney better start his BLITZKRIEG NOW.
And a couple of hundred million dollars in campaign ads aimed at the swing states.......
Because there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2010. It makes a world of a difference.
Carter also had a 30% approval rating by the end of July ‘80. The campaign poll numbers reflected unease about Reagan as he had been pilloried as a press agent for WW3. Romney has at least 3 problems to overcome. Obama’s approvals go no lower than 40. Romney has not satisfied voters that Obama’s attacks are bogus. Romney unlike Reagan has not produced any kind of idea of what America will look like under a Romney presidency. Also Carter was an outsider who had to fend off the Left challenge for the nomination provided by teddy. Obama has no such problem with today’s dems.I think it will be Obama by Bush ‘04 numbers.
Oh really? Yet dims are constantly over sampled in most polls by what? 3% or 8%?
Total crap and why are these “pollsters” still in business?
I don't think he is doing that but we could use an update from anyone who actually knows what Raz is currently using for his Turnout Model.
The other guy in that 1980 race was liberal Republican John Anderson who got 6.6 percent of the vote.
Rasmussen DOES use his own numbers.
The others use their own numbers + historical and census data in some kind of secret sauce.
And a majority from a different poll say Zero doesn’t deserve another term.
He didn’t deserve a first one, either, in case anyone wants to poll me.
IIRC Ras is using a D+3 model other are higher.
the ARG poll yesterday showed Romney +3 with a +4D sample.
If the numbers are like 2010 (R&D 35% I30% and apply this to the polls it comes out Romney +6. Which is the same as the CU economic model predicts.
Nor is there a cool black guy on the ticket in 2012.
How many of those Dems are people indoctrinated over 12-16+ years by government schooling?
Vouchers are the first step to educational liberty. The second is getting government out of the business of defining what is and isn’t an education.
This is an August poll Xzins. I’d be curious to see one for September. Hopefully, Rasmussen will release one in early October.
We need to stay +4% and capture just 43% of those “Independents” and we can hold the Congress for generations.
LOL. And the other half would be holding it.
“Because there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2010. It makes a world of a difference.”
Actually there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2008 either, just a ridiculous Barry Halfwhite.
“If the economy hasnt gotten any better since 2010, why would anyone believe that the election results in 2012 will be different from what they were in 2010?”
Simple, we elected a GOP house in ‘10 and we still have problems so that proves it was all really Bush’s fault. See how easy that was?
“Actually there was no cool black guy on the ticket in 2008 either, just a ridiculous Barry Halfwhite.”
Actually, “articulate” Barry Halfwhite is the type of black guy that white liberals most covet. He provides them cover for their racist guilt. To reject him now would shatter their most dearly held misconceptions about black people being completely equal, and the success of affirmative action.