Posted on 09/08/2012 8:51:38 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 8, 2012
Jim Hoft
Gallup polling today put Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 4 points after the godless DNC Convention.
Back in 1980 Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Ronald Reagan by 4 points in September.
Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Which makes sense if pollsters want to look good for future customers.
I’m pretty unphased by the polls showing an (relativly small) Obama bounce. Candidates virtually always get a bounce from their convention and that bounce is virtually always gone in two week (just ask pathetic John McCain, most forget but he was actually about 5 points of Obama in the week following the convention).
I can’t believe Obama is actually polling ahead. It shouldn’t be even close at this point. I’m worried that he isn’t really ahead at all, and that they’re only publishing these fictitious polls so that rampant voter fraud in the real election, when it happens, doesn’t seem to have tipped the balance.
On the other hand, if the polls are real, then we’re done for as a country. There are too many leeches that are living off of my hard work. F*ck ‘em. I’ll leave. I’m ready.
I agree, honest polls are snapshots in time, little more.
This thing has gotten me interested because of the stories about Axelrod and Holder apparently trying to strongarm Gallup because they don’t like their methodology and results.
I was just a kid during the 1980 election, but I remember the visceral hatred that the liberal media had for Reagan.
All I heard was that Reagan was going to start a nuclear war with the Soviet Union over and over again.
It gave me nightmares.
This is the first election in my memory where the media hasn’t painted the GOP candidate as a war-monger or a moron or both.
In this election, the liberal media is painting Romney as an effete, tax-dodging elitist, or the GOP version of John Kerry, which is preferable to war-mongering moron.
Nevertheless, this campaign will be a statistical dead heat until the end like 2000, and it will come down to GOTV in the swing states.
It all has to do with party affiliation of those polled compared to party affiliation of those that vote. It seems in just about every poll lately that the Romney's support among Republicans is greater than Obama's support among Democrats. And Romney has more support among Independents. However, the polls also tend to put more Democrats than Republicans in the sample of voters asked...so that the polls look fairly tight. The reason the polls skew toward polling Democrats is that historically there are more voting Democrats than voting Republicans. However, there are indications (such as a Rasmussen study I have seen) that this is now actually backwards, and that there are now more Republican voters than Democrat voters. I am cautiously optimistic that this means Romney will win in a land slide...since it will mean that more Republicans will vote than Democrats...that fewer Republicans will cross over and vote for Obama than Democrats crossing over and voting for Romney, and more Independents will vote for Romney. Result: there ain't enough fraud they can do to keep Obama from being stomped flat!
Amen Andy! You are exactly correct on this.
Also when a tyrant is in power it becomes dangerous to dissent. 100% support was recorded for Mussolini. “Bagdad Bob” expressed the opinion that 110% support for Saddam was possible.
Here in the United States people have been successfully brainwashed to believe that if you don’t support the dictator, you must be a racist.
As a result of this fear, people poll much higher support for Obama than actually exist.
He has destroyed the economy destroyed our net worth, and governed a free people as a imperial monarch. So the actual vote will be like the 2010 vote, much more conservative than
Reagan carried his own state California, but Romney will lose his own state.
This election is not in Romney’s bag.
Obama will carry his state.
Romney’s strategy is not promising, it is defensive. He is treating as normal election, he should exploit current poor economy and make every state in play. Yet to see any ad in Silicon Valley.
LOL, does that mean that we'll soon be hearing from the Myth Smote Veterans Forsooth?
Worse than that, Gallup had Carter up by eight in October.
Maybe, but I believe Obama will loseby several points, unless something dramatic happens (Iran or October surprise of Romney scandal).
After thinking about this the other night I went and looked up the polls. It was all too close to call. I call Romney landslide.
I was a volunteer for the Reagan/Bush staff during the 1984 Republican Convention in Dallas. This was before C-SPAN and the Internet. The RNC ran their own channel covering the event. We would watch it as we were waiting for assignments. It was great because they carried all the speeches for those of us who either didn't have credentials or tickets to attend the convention. That coverage had none of the voiceovers telling us what we had just heard like all the lamestreamers tend to do.
I came home after witnessing first hand Ronald Reagan's speech. I stood not too far from Diane Sawyer while Our President was giving his acceptance speech. And, yet when I got home that evening and caught the evening news I could not believe how biased and negative the coverage was. That was my first awakening. By 1993, I was no longer subscribing to the newspaper.
And they wonder why CNN has only 100,000 viewers.
Gallup, Ipsos, Quinnipiac,Field....they have all sucked for a very long time
Stunning, wasn’t it? I would watch Reagan give a speech from start to finish, be jazzed up, and then listen to the commentators twist all he said into a pretzel. Later, Time and Newsweek would completely distort his speech. At the time, I was trying to become more informed and this confused the heck out of me, why were the reporters and commentators doing this?? Years later, it took Rush Limbaugh to explain the bias of the media.
...and look where Time and Newsweak are now. A shame it’s taken this long.
The Good Lord promised us that we would know the Truth and it would set us free. And, I am sure he was meaning His Truth and not the incessant 24/7 obamababble.
That is why every old-school Democrat in the country except Joe Biden is coming out against Obama.
Pat Caddell? Mort Zuckerman? Walter Russell Mead? Bob Woodward? All of them are firing at Obama.
They're also oversampling Democrats at an incredible rate.
Worry in October. Don't worry today.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.