Lib polling expert Nate Silver
Posted on 09/09/2012 6:21:57 AM PDT by nhwingut
When the Badger state comes in red, you can all have what I'm having:
Wisconsin is a big target. It has been the whole damn time. All the groaning and eeyoring by folks over it's absence in the first release was weak-kneed silliness, as much as the fretting over "120% turnout in Madison" was for the recall. Team Romney is going to attack a vastly larger map than what McCain was desperately trying to win avoid embarrassment and hold in 08. Enjoy that bounce from the convention while you can, President Obama. The ads and GOTV rollout begins now, and no amount of scale-thumbing by Purely Partisan Polling will be able to deflect a 9-figure onslaught.
Oh, and for the record: I don't give a damn what an over-glorified ex-Kos now-NYT hack who got direct polling info from his beloved ChicagoJesus' campaign in 08 has to say. Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato earn my respect by staying clean of that. He had no problem jumping in and letting his bias show. Keep this in mind when he starts getting moist and excited over a RAND internet user poll (while ignoring all other "internet" polls that show results he doesn't like, or state polls he doesn't like, or ...)
(Excerpt) Read more at minx.cc ...
I just hope they haven’t misjudged early voting. It would be nice to know when that starts in various locales.
It’s a good Romney ad, but we need specifics. Hopefully he’s going to lay out a narrative in the ads with each one providing more details about how he plans to accomplish his agenda. Just saying he’s going to cut government spending and create jobs isn’t enough. Obama will say the same thing.
Romney’s ads need to clearly say that his jobs will be private sector ones and Obama’s will be more government jobs.
Agreed. I hope the $15 million in this “buy” is not all of these produced ads. Because every one of these ads is the same vanilla script (i.e. begin with Romney speech and then throw in a little stat relative to particular state - and in this case it’s a national stat, debt).
They need to hammer him on ideology. Not on his stewardship. Everyone knows he’s failed. Not everyone realizes its due to far left keynesian policies.
I hope that's the net again after they eliminate the jobs of all the Communist red diaper dope-r babies in Wisconsin.
Terrible ad. Who give a shit about the debt? Only we do. The American sheeple care about jobs, gas prices, healthcare, etc. The “debt” doesn’t make your nose stuffed up or make your car break down. It is so abstract it has ZERO impact, and also people know the GOP runs Congress and blames them MORE than Obama. So stupid to waste millions on this ineffective ad.
“Romney’s ads need to clearly say that his jobs will be private sector ones and Obama’s will be more government jobs.”
And these days all too many people prefer government job. Better pay, no lay offs. Not a whole lot to do. What’s not to like. In their minds. And Romney can’t guarantee that somebody will hire them whereas Obama can create job and actually hire them. People are stupid.
An important point that Libs just don't get. Government jobs subtract from the Treasury and add a burden on the taxpayer. Private sector jobs add to the Treasury and reduce the burden on taxpayers.
They are also starting ads in Michigan.
Nate worked at the Crazy Koz website .
He is left wing loon
People need to be reminded that the GOP runs the House and the dems run the Senate.
>>It’s a good Romney ad, but we need specifics.<<
Personally I think the one main theme of the ad barrage should be fiscal responsibility. Cut ads featuring previous Obama voters who now realize that we can’t continue spending and borrowing at the rate we’re going. Refer to the bankrupt CA cities and bankrupt Greece, etc.
As an aside, it would be great if they could feature someone at a S&P, Moody’s or Fitch who would just in a matter-of-fact way, using a chart of our debt progression, point out when he/she thinks U.S. Treasury debt will be downgraded again at the present pace of growth in that debt.
In fact, if they can’t get a real employee from one of those credit rating agencies, just make it up. Hire an actor to do it, and use conservative numbers. That way, if they interview any of those agencies, they’ll be likely to point out that they would probably have downgraded our debt even earlier than the actor in the commercial did.
Anyway, then end the fiscal responsibility commerical with your idea that to do this successfully we need to stop growing government and start growing the private sector again.
Just saying no to gov’t jobs isn’t enough. As someone else pointed out, gov’t jobs look pretty good to people right now, if needing a job is your first priority, plus, so many people hold them that threatening them just costs votes.
>>People need to be reminded that the GOP runs the House and the dems run the Senate.<<
Actually, people need to be reminded that this entire mess started spiraling out of control when Pelosi and Reid took full control of Congress in January of 2007. Use employment charts for starters, because they’re devastating. Toss in home prices and anything else you can find.
Perot used charts to excellent advantage in 1992. They can be extremely effective if they’re not fudged, but accurately portray what happened.
The number of Americans working (and probably illegals too) peaked in 2007, and it’s been seriously downhill since. Hang this one around the Democrats’ necks because that’s exactly where it belongs, since they were also directly responsible for the housing fiasco as well.
Statistical, analytical arguments work for the GOP base (Ross Perot did this), but you still have to tug at the heart strings of the indies and wavering Democrats who are ruled by emotion.
Real life stories of people who have been laid off, lost their homes, suffering kids, suffering seniors who are being affected by the Medicare cuts, sob...sob...sob. It’s disgusting to thinking people that this has to be done, but it does. We are a nation of people ruled by emotion. Democrats are masters at manipulating the emotions. Republicans need to become equal at the game.
Especially important are the stories are of people who bought into hopey changey and are now dispirited and disillusioned. They don’t trust Obama and they need to be given plenty of reasons to trust Romney.
Disappointed Obama voters need to know that there are millions like them and that it’s okay to admit that you were fooled, to be angry about it, and that you’re more than welcome to hop over the fence and join us. No making fun of them, just have the arms open wide and give them a hug and reassurance when they arrive.
“.....this entire mess started spiraling out of control when Pelosi and Reid took full control of Congress in January 2007.” Excellent point.
I mentioned that in another posting yesterday, but it needs repeating over and over again, because people have short memories.
Of course, we’ll never hear it mentioned in the main stream media. It’s always “Bush’s fault.” Pelosi and Reid get off scot-free.
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