Gallup: 0 49%, R 44% (RV)

Gallup ^

[Arthurio]

Gallup: 0 49%, R 44% (RV)

Based on a 7 day tracking poll of registered voters.

In Gallup's 3 day tracking pull of Adults, Obama's job approval is 50% to 44%. This down 4% from just yesterday. This shows that the bounce is already tapering off. Not evident in the 7 day tracking poll, but quite evident in the 3 day job approval poll.

[Biggirl]

Look for the polls to begin to go against Obama this week, no post convention bounce.

[LS]

Other times, other races don't count. Dukakis had a 17 point lead over Bush in 88.

I don't think McCain was going to win even if the financial meltdown had not occurred. He simply didn't want to. I'm told repeatedly that Romney wants to, and intends, to win. We'll see. Now is the time for him to get ruthless and swiftboat Obama.

[LS]

As one who CITED the polls saying McCain would beat Hillary (and who thought Obama would be weaker), I fess up. I did think that most polls undercounted McCain. Here's why:

We were in GOP headquarters in Mont. Co., OH and we were getting a very strong indication that our "base" would turn out.

This is why going back to previous elections is useless: we thought if the "base" turned out---as per Rove's model in 2004---McCain would win. Early reports were that "red" areas were turning out strongly. I felt pretty good by the time the polls closed. Then we looked at the first actual return from a precinct that should have been 100% red. It was 25% Obama, and we knew that he'd win the whole thing.

But based on 04, nobody could possibly have guessed that a whole bunch of Rs would vote D.

Likewise this time around, I would not put too much stock in the polls. First, their internals do not jibe with their purported findings. Second, from all we can tell, Romney is winning the precious independents heavily. But most important, NO ONE knows what the turnout model in THIS election will be---not Gallup, not Rasmussen. Most are basing it on 2008. I'm certain that's wrong. I think 2010 is closer, maybe 2011 closer still in the WI recall. But no one is adjusting for those changes.

But . . . do you know ANY Republicans who will be voting for Obama this time around?

[Wilum]

I realized that but when they started turning the discussion here was Don't believe them.

All I'm saying is that we don't dismiss them when they aren't going our way. I hope Zero's #s will settle back from the convention bounce and the upcoming add blitz helps.

[Wilum]

Ha! LS, no I don't know any that will vote for Zero but I am concerned how many we lose to third party candidates or just sit-out if this ends up close.

Thanks for your knowledgeable input it does help.

[LS]

I do agree. Third Party guys could be a problem. But Ronald Reagan lost6% to Anderson and still won big.

[palmer]

Yup, but then I was only expecting a very small0bama bounce. Instead we are now seeing an 0bama surge. I put too much faith in the people making that prediction.

Dude!! You need to take a break from the MSM, politics and posting. Just go relax on the beach and come back when your panic has subsided.

[Cruising For Freedom]

A lot of conservatives everywhere apparently believe whatever PPP says. Let us not forget how hard they fought for Akin, mysteriously the only time they’ve ever oversampled Republicans. (This isn’t to drag up the Akin issue again, but to point out that PPP has an agenda.)