Skip to comments.Bounce! - Rich Galen
Posted on 09/09/2012 6:07:19 PM PDT by Perdogg
Let's don't sound like some dopey pundit on cable TV reading the talking points you got in an email and pretend that Barack Obama did not get a bounce out of his convention.
He did. But not as much as the Barack Obama campaign might have wanted.
On August 27 - the day the GOP convention was supposed to have started, the RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls had Obama leading Mitt Romney 46.8 percent to 45.7 percent. That is a difference of 1.1 percentage points.
As of last evening, the five national polls that were current showed Obama with a net average advantage of 3.0 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at mullings.com ...
RCP has 0 up by an average of 1.8, not 3 points.
I don’t understand why everyone is getting flipped about this.
I expected it.
As Andrew Breitbart would say.....So?
That could be enough to win in November.....with the election so being so close. I am thinking that Obama’s chances get better from here on out, just my feelings....
Why? You are a conservative I suppose. Tell me logically not emotionally. I am an engineer, I deal with facts not theories.
If it’s close, there will be riots.
Exactly! What difference does it make if Obama is up by 20 points in CA or NY? That’s millions of people. He will win there no matter what.
Obama’s ahead, my foot. Lots & lots of people called by pollsters are lying through their teeth so they won’t be labeled as “racists”.
The MSM’s trying to carry Obama to the finish line. Worthless dishonest hacks!
if a pig had wings, it could fly. very little chance that the popular vote winner is going to lose the electoral college.
EXACTLY!! I dont give a rats behind if Obama is up nationally..I want to know how he’s doing in Ohio, Wisconsin, PA, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and other swing states..the electoral college is what matters at the end, not how Obama is doing nationally
Tell me logically not emotionally. I am an engineer, I deal with facts not theories.
Yep. It’s the knee jerk reaction that is prevalent on FR.
Look at the FACTS:
1. DNC. The RATS just completed their convention, of course Soetoro was going to get a bounce, the majority of which was from Clinton (not Obama). Clinton ain’t running for POTUS.
2. Scott Rasmussen (nor any other pollster) ISN’T a prophet. Again, another FReeperism is taking the word of Rasmussen as Gospel; it isn’t. He’s ONE polling outfit, ONE point of data. And as far as Rasmussen goes, he just had a poll that showed more Americans are registered GOP than in any poll his outfit has taken. So, all the new Republicans are going to vote for Obama? Don’t think so. Which Rasmussen poll are we to believe?
3. History. GHWB was behind Do-cucky by 17% in 1988. Ronald Reagan’s sitting VP was behind by a HUGE margin. How did that election come out again? Right...a Bush blowout.
I have the cache and history on my computer set to clean out cookies automatically and I can’t find the FR thread, but there was a thread regarding poll results and a FReeper had a brilliant observation/opinion. To paraphrase: The pollsters don’t want to show Obama losing this far out because the inner city “gimme” crowd is going to start freaking out en masse. Expect to see the unevenly balanced polling internals (the massive oversampling of RATS) until just before the election, so these pollsters can salvage something of their reputations.
The DNC just finished up, R2 has just begun spending their mounds of dollar$ in states like WI. The fight has just really started - it’s after Labor Day and both major parties completed their conventions.
I’m not saying not to be concerned, the fact that a POTUS like this bum is over 30% in any poll shows how far this country has slid, but unless an evil miracle happens, Obama is going down hard.
The debates MUST really worry Obama, because unlike taking on McCain in 2008, Obama doesn't have a good Presidential record to defend himself in the debates. Romney will clearly point out the very weak jobs recovery (with many workers no longer even looking for a job), the ballooning size of the Federal government and deficit, the economy-inhibiting income tax system, the disastrous US$787 billion stimulus plan from 2009, the issues of a "sugar rush" from the Federal Reserve doing quantitative easing, and too much pandering (very literally in a few cases) to countries not exactly friendly to the USA. And Obama speaking "off the cuff" can cause more problems, as we all so remember clearly from the "You didn't build that!" comment....
As long as they keep people like Eric Holder and Napolitano in hiding. All of 0bama’s toxic team members will be hidden for the next few weeks. Well, they CAN’T hide Biden!
I can not logically tell you why I feel Obama will win. Sorry....
If its close, there will be riots.
Obamas ahead, my foot. Lots & lots of people called by pollsters are lying through their teeth so they wont be labeled as racists.
I bought this notion in 2008. It didn’t work out so well. I believe this country has tipped. It’s dominated by people who no longer appreciate what was unique and special about it. They want guarantees from the government and will accept an otherwise mediocre existence. I’d love to be wrong.
What were the polls claiming in 2010?
Pelosi was certain that the donks were going to hold the house...
In 2008 Obama was an unknown angel of light & his opponent sucked. Now it’s Obama’s record that sucks.
It’s also four years later into the information technology revolution. Lying gets harder to do. The Demvention will be remembered by a Scripture quote: “before the cock crows thou shalt deny Me three times”.
Ain’t over yet. When the MSM declared the election over after Klintoon’s speech, that said in spades that it isn’t over ‘til it’s over. Have faith.
Obama is ahead and is a decided favorite to win. It really sucks, but it is true.
Romney got no bounce whatsoever out of his convention, Obama is getting a small one out of his. That sugests people still just don’t really like Romney.
Romney never comes close to 50% in the polls, Obama has been flirting with that mark and sometimes passes it. His ceiling seems higher.
While the Battleground polls do not show movement towards Obama yet, they will. Tracking polls pick up movement first because they are conducted most oftern. The less frequent state polls will take a while longer but they also will show Obama ahead in the coming days.
I wouldn’t begin to suggest that Romney’s task is impossible, but he is behind. He is a definite underdog, and he needs an inspired campaign from here on out, plus a little luck if he is going to win.
So far, none of those things have really occurred. He has some time, but not much.
In 2010, the polls were saying that the Republicans were going to blow the doors off the dems. That’s what happened. Pelosi was merely cheerleading and no one believed her.
SHOW ME THE NUMBERS IN SWING STATES,NOT THE NATIONWIDE AVERAGES!
Bingo, GSC. These are the states that will decide the outcome.
I’d like to see potential turnout in cities in swing states. It takes an awful lot of us backward hicks and evil greedy suburbanites to outweigh the juggernaut that is the city vote (to whence most of the gov’t “goodies” flow, and thus the most interested in growing the darn thing).
Spend the Money Now Rove
They have got to reach these voters.
I recall 2008 Obama offices and posters were all over the cities - good neighborhoods and bad.
Haven’t been in many downtowns lately, but I’m not seeing the same presence. Looks like a spending opportunity, like you say.
Oh, some people may like him "personally", but his stewardship of the State has been a disaster on every level.
He can't run on his record, and I don't think "but you LIKE me" is going to cut it.
Frankly I've ALWAYS found him profoundly unlikeable. He's thin skinned, humorless, vindictive, petulant, and very anti-American.
The problem is that if Romney can’t make himself more likable than Obama, people will just wind up voting for “The Devil They Know.”
Indeed. As my statistician husband would say, the difference is 'in the noise'.