Skip to comments.Omens of Doom? - Nate Silver gives 4-to-1 odds against a Romney win
Posted on 09/10/2012 4:34:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
................But why bring Nate Silver into this?
Silver is the poll-analyzing guru of the New York Times, whose reputation as a wizard was developed in crunching baseball statistics before being applied to political campaigns. On Saturday afternoon, Silver published an analysis which asserted that Obama now has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the election, with 317 Electoral College votes and 52 percent of the popular vote. All of which is very interesting -- and very important, if true.
However,....I recall the Sunday in October 2010 when I arrived in New York's 25th Congressional District and was greeted by a Syracuse Post-Standard headline proclaiming that Democrat Rep. Dan Maffei had opened up a 12-point lead over Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle with barely two weeks remaining until Election Day. There was a mood of grim determination at the Buerkle campaign events I attended that Sunday and Monday, and I was far from certain that she could pull off an upset. On Election Night, the vote was "too close to call" and it was only after an extended recount that Buerkle was declared the winner -- two days before Thanksgiving -- by a margin of fewer than 600 votes........
Was Buerkle's victory a miraculous comeback? Had she actually erased a 12-point deficit in the span of 16 days? Of course not. The poll by Siena College was simply wrong, based on a faulty sample, and her chances of beating Maffei were as good on Sunday, Oct. 17, as they were on Tuesday, Nov. 2........however, its publication as front-page news in the Syracuse paper posed a real danger to her campaign, one she addressed at a rally with her supporters. "I don't want anyone to let this discourage you," Buerkle said the day after the poll was published. ".........
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
who is Nate Silver?
Silver is the poll-analyzing guru of the New York Times,”
Nate Silver is a left-wing little fag who worships obama as well.
The poll was simply wrong, a lot of that going on now.
This “poll analyzer” doesn’t know what he is talking about. The gambling websites, which have a historic track record of being far more accurate at predicting election winners than the polls, do not give Obama such an unrealistically ridiculous lead. Instead, they show a very, very close race.
The article doesn’t lend any credence to this moron pollster’s BS.
But the American Spectator engaged in something called “link bait”, where the title was meant to get a reaction strong enough for you to click on it.
4-1 against Romney? That’s an overlay as I feel it’s only 1.3-1 against at the moment and a lot of that is because we’re too close to the Dem Convention to get realistic numbers.
Spot me 70 Electoral votes and I’ll bet even money.
I just listened to Trump on Fox and Friends minutes ago. He was blasting Romney for not attacking Obama. He said that the Romney camp is being nice as part of their attitude toward the man.
He said that it was a repeat of McCain and that it would NOT work, and that if Romney doesn’t attack, because there are so many points at which to attack, then it will not go well.
He could not understand why they refuse to attack.
I agree. I saw a commercial from Romney finally this morning here in this battleground state of Ohio. It was exactly what Romney said, “nice”. It was “I’ll create jobs in Ohio and not ship them overseas.”
So bland I had trouble remembering it.
Speaking of “baiting”...
Look how a Madison paper edited an article on racism by Jesse Washington [who] covers race and ethnicity for The Associated Press.
Here it is in full:
Well you certainly can't call Trump bland. He must be upset he wasn't news during 2 weeks of conventions.
What I heard on radio early this a.m. is that Obama has opened a 5 point lead in Ohio, citing two polls that say so. Post Dem convention.
In Ohio, given the nature of that state and its cruciality to victory, if that is actually true and holds anywhere close to that, America is already gone.
I have heard that because John Kasich has done so much good in Ohio, most people there are better off than before he became governor, and that people tend to credit OBAMA for it, rather than him.
That would suggest a level of ignorance that is truly frightening.
My guess is that Obama got a bounce but we can’t tell yet its degree or staying power. It did cause polls to move his way, but the accuracy of the measurement is unknown. And it could be more of a response to the nostalgia of Bill Clinton’s years than anything else, whatever it is.
The Clintons tend to be popular in some of those states in the Rust Belt. If they had the say, back in ‘08, it would’ve been Hillary, not Obama. Guess they forgot about Hillarycare, but what kind of a choice did they have, between two radicals?
Bottom line to remember, this latest is now being used to propagandize the nation like never before, that Obama is going to take it, You can hear the barely disguised chortle in the newsreader’s voices.
Bill Cunningham (who’s from Ohio) last night asked Trump or some other rich guy or a consortium of them, to buy tv time and run the movie “2016” right into people’s living rooms. He had just gotten through seeing the movie and said there are very few Americans who would vote for Obama after seeing it.
It being Obama’s life story and his philosophy, in Obama’s own voice as he reads from his book.
I don’t mind if they keep Mitt and the Tea Party crowds energized while making 0 overconfident.
“This ‘poll analyzer’ doesn’t know what he is talking about.”
One wonders how brilliant he thinks he is and how many times he’s been told that he’s “brilliant, brilliant”.
Real money has Obama at 53% Romney 47%
Wish I had a spare 250k to try and get that horses ass to lay $1million against Romney.
Romney could turn things around if he’d listen to the “little people”. Mike Rowe gave him some excellent advice but he needs to do more than use it as a photo op to show that he read it.
Telling people that he’ll create jobs is great but its become meaningless to most people to hear it from a politician. People want to know how and telling them that he’ll cut taxes at the top just isn’t enough. The people want to know if he’s going to eliminate the taxes on manufacturing. They want to know how he’ll get around regulations that impede production. The people want to know how he’ll lure jobs back to America.
One has to remember that almost all these polls are propaganda put out by the democrat machine. The lames stream media is a wholly owned subsidiary of the DNC and publishes ONLY what the DNC tells them to.
I'm an Ohioan, and this is actually true. But, it's true in the blue or purple regions of the state. The conservative regions just don't like Obama. And those who are out of work tend to blame Obama.
Kasich was very poorly served by his leader of the Ohio Senate, a guy named Tom Niehaus, who shoved a very poorly written, seriously over-reaching senate bill 5 that the liberals absolutely hammered Kasich with. Gov Kasich never got a chance to have a honeymoon, to establish his own agenda, because Niehaus had this monstrosity that got so much into the weeds that it was telling local communities how to run their fire departments, life squads, and school systems.
Niehaus destroyed Kasich's introduction to the state, the liberal unions were able to paint Kasich as an enemy of workers, Senate bill 5 went down to a flaming 60+ percent defeat, and poor Kasich had to support the darn thing in order to support his team (and this idiot Niehaus.)
Because of that, it doesn't surprise me at all that Obama is getting Kasich's credit in purple regions of the state.
I'll go further. Niehaus monstrosity was so unpopular and so memorably so that I will not be surprised if it doesn't underlie an Obama victory in this state. You've got to remember that it came on top of the previous republican administration, Taft's, being found guilty in court of misappropriation, and of Taft himself being found guilty. Some of that bad taste remains, too.
The GOP-E in this state has seriously undercut the brand name.
The problem is all this “analysis” is based on polling data that is slanted hard Left. All the polling models are based on the 2008 turn out model. That model is a fluke since Dems had a much much better year then normal.
The poll cited in Oh over samples Dems +4. Not a realistic turn out model.