Posted on 09/10/2012 4:34:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
................But why bring Nate Silver into this?
Silver is the poll-analyzing guru of the New York Times, whose reputation as a wizard was developed in crunching baseball statistics before being applied to political campaigns. On Saturday afternoon, Silver published an analysis which asserted that Obama now has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the election, with 317 Electoral College votes and 52 percent of the popular vote. All of which is very interesting -- and very important, if true.
However,....I recall the Sunday in October 2010 when I arrived in New York's 25th Congressional District and was greeted by a Syracuse Post-Standard headline proclaiming that Democrat Rep. Dan Maffei had opened up a 12-point lead over Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle with barely two weeks remaining until Election Day. There was a mood of grim determination at the Buerkle campaign events I attended that Sunday and Monday, and I was far from certain that she could pull off an upset. On Election Night, the vote was "too close to call" and it was only after an extended recount that Buerkle was declared the winner -- two days before Thanksgiving -- by a margin of fewer than 600 votes........
Was Buerkle's victory a miraculous comeback? Had she actually erased a 12-point deficit in the span of 16 days? Of course not. The poll by Siena College was simply wrong, based on a faulty sample, and her chances of beating Maffei were as good on Sunday, Oct. 17, as they were on Tuesday, Nov. 2........however, its publication as front-page news in the Syracuse paper posed a real danger to her campaign, one she addressed at a rally with her supporters. "I don't want anyone to let this discourage you," Buerkle said the day after the poll was published. ".........
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
Trump is right. Obama has played the victim card on the economy and if Romney continues to make the economy the 'meat & potatoes' of his campaign, he might as well make his concession speech now.
Obama and his administration is full of obvious corruption and political criminality yet not a peep from the Right................
..................”or some other rich guy or a consortium of them, to buy tv time and run the movie “2016” right into people’s living rooms”..................
Spot on. This should be done.
Was talking to a man yesterday in the construction business who blamed it all on Obama. He was exactly right.
He went on to ask about Romney. He is a bible-belt, social conservative. I said, “I can’t lie to you Tim. He’s very bad on our issues. He’s pro-gay adoption, in favor of gay boy scouts, supports a gay military, and likes gun control.”
He said, to me, “I can’t support that. What are we supposed to do? (I’m his pastor.)” I said, “Some people are saying that it’s more important to get rid of what’s worse...Obama. I understand that. Maybe they’re right. In the bible, they supported both good kings and bad kings.”
He said, “but I still can’t support that....it would go against everything I believe.” I said, “Yeah, I know.”
He asked what I was doing. I told him I’m supporting Virgil Goode. He said he’d not heard of him. I told him to look it up. He said, “He’s on the ballot in Ohio?”
I said he was. Then Tim repeated that he couldn’t support either of the other two.
That took all of 5-10 minutes. Our biblical Christians just don’t know what’s being said by these two liberals. When they hear it, they turn against both of them.
That's true, IMHO, Romney's not going to make it unless he stops praising Obama, stops being Mr Nice Guy and really goes after Bambi's miserable record. Romney had no trouble viciously attacking his primary (GOP) opponents, running attack ads about them, etc., even though he had no ideas of his own to offer and was really just going for personal attacks. It worked.
Now the GOP actually does have its own ideas to offer, and it has somebody exciting (Paul Ryan) to articulate them. But instead we're seeing bland, grinning, artificial-looking Romney out there all the time, telling us what a great guy Obama is.
I read another analysis this morning that said that the biggest problem is that the Dems have managed to cast it so that people who criticize Obama - for any reason - are being racist, and everybody in the opposition is terrified to appear critical of Obama. There were buses at the DNC that had the slogan "Don't Disrespect My President" on the side, clearly intending to imply that any criticism is equivalent "dissing" "their" president.
It's also true that Romney comes out of a religious cult that historically had pretty negative attitudes towards blacks, embedded in their "scriptures" and practice, and I think this has made him even more cautious about appearing to "diss" Obama.
But somebody's got to have the guts to start being realistic about Obama and treating him like any other candidate or we are surely going to lose.
Really? The Koolaid drinkers would be unmoved by it if they watched it; which, of course, they wouldn't.
Nate Silver is a statistician who in 2010 predicted the GOP would fall just short of winning the House. I think he predicted a pick up of 30 seats.
Intrade has Obama at 58.7 not 53
in trade is 59-41 Obama
Agreed.
Romney needs to get off the dime.
As things stand now, if he doesn’t go after Obama, it seems he’ll simply never lead.
I don't believe they'll get into attack mode. McCain wouldn't do it; these are the same people.
I'm not real sure they want to win. In fact, I'd not be surprised at all if that were true.
Nate Silver is a former JOURNO list guy who has been Toyko Rose the past few days, churning out piece after piece about how conservatives just need to stay home and how the race is over according to the polls.
He may end up being right, but at this point I have a hard time seeing undecided voters pulling the Obama lever come November 6th.
The media is trying to put the full court press on to demoralize us. If Romney were the incumbent president, we’d be seeing dozens of articles about how he’s in terrible shape since he’s an incumbent who can’t poll above 50 percent. They’ve got a narrative for all seasons against us.
Comrade Nate Silver was the Daily Koz pollster .
full blown left wing loon !
Nate predicted the Dems would keep the house in 2010 .
Nate predicted Scott would be recalled !
When you say purple areas of the state, you are singing the same song I was...those are SWING areas. The conservative areas don’t like Obama and have minds made up against him. The lib areas are lined up on the opposite side.
The intrastate political scene is a sorry one, from your description.
The part about Kasich having to support the GOP team reminds me, VERY MUCH, of Rick Perry feeling he had to endorse DEWHURST.
That will hurt Rick Perry in TX, but it will not determine the election outcome for president. TX is anti-Obama.
Dear Lord, I pray the Ohio situation does not destroy this entire nation by allowing Obama to win there.
So what ?
It’s s entertainment scam .
Operation Demoralize Ping
Romney has non stop ads are on the tv and air
Non stop in Orlando and Tampa .
The ads are tough .
I’m not crediting the polls’ accuracy, as I stated that there was some kind of a bounce but unknowable as to its size or staying power. I also said it could be a Clinton more than an Obama bounce.
But thanks for the info.
Americans must come to the polls in droves to vote out Obama -- come out like their lives and their family's futures depend on it, because they do.
you post: “One has to remember that almost all these polls are propaganda put out by the democrat machine. The lames stream media is a wholly owned subsidiary of the DNC and publishes ONLY what the DNC tells them to.”
And they’d better not stray - or they’ll find a fish - or horse - head in their bed.
Just watch the proof you see - the small crowds for the Won...That speaks volumns. (even had to pull in the convention to a 20,000 seat arena - that wouldn’t even seat the delegates and media)
Also, remember when -
in 1980, according to the media and pollsters - Carter couldn’t lose to Reagan - he was the OVERWHELMING lead -
(and up until election, polls ‘showed’ 2 to 1 for Carter...It was 2 to 1 - but FOR REAGAN.
And Dukakis led GHW Bush by 17 points after the DNC convention -
BOTTOM LINE: VOTE - and have a ‘voting party’ - make sure all your family and friends vote. Throw a victory breakfast or evening happy hour - everyone who comes with a “I voted” sticker gets a free breakfast or drink...then break out the popcorn - and watch the media melt into tears, like RAther and others did in 1980. I still smile when I remember it.
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