Skip to comments.Morning Jay: Did Obama Really Win the Summer? (Good Analysis)
Posted on 09/10/2012 5:51:55 AM PDT by nhwingut
As we wait to see the extent and duration of Barack Obamas post-convention bounce, it makes sense to do a little analytical house cleaning. In particular, a meme developed over the summer that Barack Obama was a strong favorite to win reelection, thanks to a sustained and substantial lead over his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, particularly in the swing states.
This impression has been facilitated in part by several factors: an aggressive Obama PR operation that courts the media in an attempt to create a bandwagon effect, registered voter polls that often over-sample Democrats, left-leaning journalists who often assume an Obama advantage; former Obama campaign consultant Nate Silver, whose black-box statistical model for the New York Times has shown an outsized lead for the president (and whose 2010 model consistently placed the battle for the House as a tossup, while giving Democrats a 20 percent chance of holding the House on Election Day), as well the proliferation of surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling, which does regular polling for the hyper-partisan union, the Service Employees International Union.
I want to look at the data from a different perspective. In particular, lets look at non-partisan, likely voter polls that RealClearPolitics used in its averages from the month of August (multiple polls from the same pollster were averaged and counted only once). What do we see?
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
Thanks...I’ll spit out the cyanide pill, for now.
We have a report that Obama "outraised" Romney---who had a record month---by . . . . $3m in the convention month. For the year, Romney has buried Obama, not even counting the superpacs. BTW, where the hell is the "SarahPac" in all this? I haven't seen any anti-Obama ads from her?
We have a Gallup post convention poll showing ZEro up . . . yet plummeting after two days, losing four points in a single night.
Oh, and we have Zero running ads in . . . WASHINGTON STATE???? Really? He doesn't see WA as safe?
If we are to believe the polls, this election may be decided by a few dozen votes in a dozen or more states.
If previous poll disasters (2004, Kerry won, opps, no he didn’t; 2012, exit polls show Dems win, opps, no, they took a schellacking) are indicative of over polling Dems in an effort to create the impression of Obama winning, thus trying to create a go-with-the-winner mantra, Romney could win in a landslide rivalling Carter’s loss.
The MSM and most of the polling organizations have lost much of their credibility because of their manipulations and not-so-hidden agenda. Polls and political news reports are suspect.
Let me also note that Cost, whom I greatly respect, neverthelss tossed out last week’s OH poll that had Romney up three in OH. I guess it was “partisan.”
Everybody should remember WI recall, all polls had it to close too call but Walker won by 5 or 6 points.
Indeed. See my post just below.
In spite of fellow travelers in the LSM and polling firms, and the WH’s bludgeoning of those with half a brain or more that aren’t readily complying, there is the Wilder Effect to consider.
Only 19 minutes till a new Rasmussen number hits. I’d sure like to see it move back away from obama, at least a point....
I thought it was given that it had no effect in 2008?
[frankly, I’d like to see a “Wise up!” effect]
I’ll be in a rubber room by November...:-\
If I understand his methodology, that might take a day or two yet.
well, you are correct.
It appears that Rasmussen’s LV’s are still in the grips of the “powerful Clinton speech”.
Hopefully we are getting near the bottom, and then the long ascent up can begin....
The one thing all the polls show consistently is a 6-10% undecided pool. I find it hard to believe that anywhere near a majority of voters who at this point are still undecided will even bother to vote or vote for obam if they do.
I’M DONE WITH POLLS!! I’m mad as hell and I’m going to take EVERYONE I know to the polls!! For some reason I just don’t believe these polls. Call me ignorant or whatever, but these are too predictable. WE KNEW THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN! Thank GOD, He gave us a glimpse of what is going to happen come Nov. 6! REMEMBER WALKER! Remember how the mediaDEMONS tried to demoralize and push all those negative polls on us....REMEMBER!! GO OUT AND TAKE ALL THE PEOPLE YOU CAN TO THE POLLS...THOSE THAT DON’T HAVE RIDES example, the elderly and those who are voting for R&R TICKET! RIGHT NOW the DNC and the evil black messiah think they have this in the bag...THE POLLS don’t necessary detect the mood of the SILENT majority! ObombO is taking those polls for granted for the time being and his hordes, but come NOv. they won’t know what hit them. WALKER is proof of that. Ojokers enthusiasm gap AIN’T THERE!! WE HAVE IT AND WE ARE MAD AS HELL!!