Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Romney Pollster: Ignore the ‘Sugar High’ of Democrat Convention (0bama pulling out of NC)
NRO ^ | By Jim Geraghty

Posted on 09/10/2012 6:20:15 AM PDT by Perdogg

The Romney campaign just distributed this open memo from the campaign’s in-house pollster, Neil Newhouse

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: North Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; elections; obama; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-53 next last

1 posted on 09/10/2012 6:20:22 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Arthurio; LS; DarthVader; nhwingut; SoFloFreeper

ping


2 posted on 09/10/2012 6:22:40 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Obama will Definitely lose NC and IN. The rest are too close to call.


3 posted on 09/10/2012 6:23:34 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

he doesn’t need NC. we do.


4 posted on 09/10/2012 6:24:09 AM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Chris Matthews eyeballs rapidly spinning counter-clockwise trying to see whether the expression “sugar-high” is racist.


5 posted on 09/10/2012 6:25:36 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JohnBrowdie

I would argue that when campaign pulls out of state they have been caimpainging hard for, it gives a sign of weakness and can affect the race overall.


6 posted on 09/10/2012 6:26:51 AM PDT by scbison
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

Agree. NC and Indiana are red this year.

All the other states are within 2-3 points. If you take into account the oversampling of Dems along with the higher expected turnout of Repubs, Romney wins every state.

The idea that this is over is laughable. At best Obama is up 5 in Gallup with registered voters and Axlrod threatening suit. I think you will see Rasmussen come back to show Obama up 2 points by week’s end.

And then it’s game on.


7 posted on 09/10/2012 6:27:06 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Let’s hope this guy is right. The Fraud in Chief is up to 50% now in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll.


8 posted on 09/10/2012 6:34:45 AM PDT by woweeitsme
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

The polls are playing into our favor. Let them over sample Dems and show Obama up. It will cause a panic among our more complacent and among the independents. It will motivate ABO voters and lull the Obamabots into sleep.


9 posted on 09/10/2012 6:37:15 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (christian.bahits.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

The MSM’s strategy is to try an convince us that the Kenyan is surging in the polls, and its all over for Romney. This is pure left wing propaganda. We have to work hard. Between fighting the left wing media and Democrat cheating/voter fraud, we have a fight on our hands, but its a long way from over.

If Romney keeps hammering on the economy and “are you better off now...” he will win.


10 posted on 09/10/2012 6:37:33 AM PDT by Astronaut
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: scbison

if 2012 turns into a battle over places like NC, we have already lost.

however, watching your enemy concede a state that he won last time has got to be a good sign.


11 posted on 09/10/2012 6:37:59 AM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Against all odds, Obama seems to be winning. The much vaunted Romney Bulldozer is nowhere to be seen. WTH?


12 posted on 09/10/2012 6:39:41 AM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
Thank you for calming me a little. Romney is not my first choice but there is no other choice because O has to GO.
I feel played a little like the media orchestrated this “Obama is back and winning” vibe all weekend like psych ops on us, and also to down play the bad jobs report Friday.
All the headlines about Obama leading in the polls and out fund raising Romney, and the set up photo-op with the big white dude giving Obama the bear hug.
It was an onslaught for the last 24 hours, wasn't it?
13 posted on 09/10/2012 6:40:26 AM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

Also added to the psych ops that started it all was the Politico article claiming people inside Romney’s camp admit to being down close to 10 points in Ohio.


14 posted on 09/10/2012 6:42:02 AM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NE1, IA = 272EV

Two states to go, and our long national nightmare is over.

15 posted on 09/10/2012 6:44:44 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NE1, IA = 272EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: woweeitsme
The Fraud in Chief is up to 50% now in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll.

That's obama's desperately needed clinton bounce. He wouldn't be at 50% without it. Clint said it best: Obama is the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on the American people. Half the country is still stuck on stupid. If he gets a second term they will be in for a rude awakening when it all comes crashing down. There will be no money to pay for their freebies. If obama gets in again - I'm dropping out of the work force early. I'm pushing 60 and I'll be damned if I'm going to continuing working my a$$ off for a bunch of deadbeats. Selling my house and heading south.

16 posted on 09/10/2012 6:44:48 AM PDT by jersey117
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

After reading the polls all weekend, I sent Romeny’s campaign an e-mail telling them to grow a backbone and attack Obama on the economy, gas prices and Obamacare and to stop saying Obama is a nice guy and call him the Marxist that he is.

No one should have to tell them to do that!


17 posted on 09/10/2012 6:45:26 AM PDT by Texas56
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: scbison

“it gives a sign of weakness and can affect the race overall.”

Agreed, especially since they tried so hard to win it. To pull out this early, right after your convention, speaks volumes about the Obama campaign’s ability to move independent voters.


18 posted on 09/10/2012 6:45:46 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: pabianice
Polls are now "mind swayers" so don't bet on it. Regardless...

Obama is counting on enough "ignorant" people to vote for him along with the one issue women...which is why Clinton is showing up. Like I said...the "ignorant"...

Our forefathers warned us about this....when ignorant voters outnumbered those who had a real interest....aka...the workers.

It's why we need the Senate in addition to the White House. It's all about getting to the voting booth.

19 posted on 09/10/2012 6:46:27 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Rasmussen has Obama up 5 this morning over Romney. Also Rasmussen shows Obama with a 52% approval rating, the most in a very long time. I think the Romney people are trying to defend their lackluster, miserably boring and ineffective campaign, but the real truth is Obama is winning and is on pace for re-election.


20 posted on 09/10/2012 6:46:40 AM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I think this is quite damaging, considering that the convention WAS in NC.

They can’t even keep the state that all the hoopla was going on in.


21 posted on 09/10/2012 6:47:59 AM PDT by I still care (I miss my friends, bagels, and the NYC skyline - but not the taxes. I love the South.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: COBOL2Java
Of course ‘sugar-high’ is racist. It means getting some of Obama’s ‘sugar’ to buy and get ‘high’ on crack. Matthews will no doubt have further analysis later.
22 posted on 09/10/2012 6:48:31 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: FreeAtlanta

It will cause a panic among our more complacent and among the independents. It will motivate ABO voters and lull the Obamabots into sleep.”

That ‘could’ be right. I hope so, and sort of think so. However, among conservatives who are inclined to pessimism, this could start the trend to depression and de-motivation. Just look at the FR posts. The “all is lost” crowd might well do double time to make sure that, in fact, all is lost.

Which means, ironically, that the determined independents who are just ticked off at obama might end up beating him, while conservatives who grumble will stand on the sidelines and moan.

I just want obama gone, and I’m sickened with the polls right now. The next two months ore going to be difficult, to say the least.


23 posted on 09/10/2012 6:50:05 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

“Rasmussen has Obama up 5 this morning over Romney. Also Rasmussen shows Obama with a 52% approval rating, the most in a very long time.”

All this tells me is that there are a number of people out there that do not have a firm commitment to either candidate at this time, even when they profess that they have made up their minds.
There are enough fluid voters out there to swing this election either way and with the campaign just getting started, its way too early to start throwing in the towel.


24 posted on 09/10/2012 6:53:07 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I thought Republicans needed a bump more than the Democrats..


25 posted on 09/10/2012 6:54:22 AM PDT by dalebert
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Here’s the easiest way to look at polls from here until election day and maybe it has more to do with dealing with fraudulent polling here in WI for three straight years.

No poll (even Ras) is worth a damned thing right now. The day in day out ups and downs over polls/trolls here at Free Republic actually is making this place a complete buzzkill to come to.

Trolls are having a field day with everyone here!

Have faith in the electorate! Walker, Prosser, Walker again, recalls galore all had one thing in common, polls that they all were going to lose or not win by margins they thought...but a motivated electorate came out and proved polls wrong.

All of these polls and trolls are here to do one thing...lower the huge numbers of motivated right leaning people from going to the polls because they think all is lost.

The “If we would have just did this or just did that” BS isn’t helping a thing. Instead do what we did here in WI, get two conservative people to the polls to vote for our candidate, one “I’m not voting for either” and one former Obama voter to do the same. Its what caused all polling to be embarrassed by the margins in the Walker recall.

And if at the end of the day Obama wins...? It wouldn’t have mattered who we ran...the moochers had taken over the country anyways.

Believe me...its liberating to deal with it.


26 posted on 09/10/2012 6:56:56 AM PDT by MNlurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Only political junkies like us pay any attention to the conventions, and most of “us” watched the NFL instead.


27 posted on 09/10/2012 6:57:19 AM PDT by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

I didn’t check this myself, but I heard a host on the radio this morning saying that at this point in the 1988 campaign, Dukkakis had a 17 point lead in national polls over George H.W. Bush. Take these polls now with a grain of salt; there’s still a lot of campaign left.


28 posted on 09/10/2012 6:58:50 AM PDT by stremba
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator
I can vouch for NC. 2008 there were Obama stickers on cars all over Greensboro. I've seen exactly 2 this year and one of those was a brochure taped to the rear windshield. No yard signs for Obama. Where I live I am seeing Romney yard signs and I am seeing Romney bumper stickers everywhere.
29 posted on 09/10/2012 6:59:51 AM PDT by Roses0508
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Texas56

I saw an ad in VA that addressed both of those issues as you speak.


30 posted on 09/10/2012 7:02:32 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: WILLIALAL
There are enough fluid voters out there to swing this election either way and with the campaign just getting started, its way too early to start throwing in the towel.

Of course, it is obviously too early to throw in the towel. Saying that, Obama is clearly winning at this point in the race. The problem is that a majority of Americans still WANT to like Obama. All he has to do is continue giving them reasons to maintain their emotional attachment to him. Those reasons will be theatric, razzle dazzle stuff as Laura Ingraham talks about on her radio program. It is a huge, huge advantage to any politician when the public WANTS to like you.

It looks pretty obvious that the Romney campaign has been ineffective so far. Obama has the same lead, if not larger, that he's had all along. R/R have tried the soft, gentle "it's really okay to vote against Obama" strategy and it just isn't working. But it appears their polling and focus groups are telling them that people are still emotionally attached to Obama and that a direct assault on him just turns people off. So they are kinda stuck with no real strategy they can really get behind aggressively. On top of that, Romney is a boring candidate. It is just not possible to get excited about him for most people. So the campaign is just kinda spinning its wheels right now and is on pace to lose.

31 posted on 09/10/2012 7:05:40 AM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

This surprises me. Civitas is a conservative group here in NC that does polling and their polls are not that bad for the Kenyan. In fact at a recent AFP event here in Raleigh it was said to be 50% split on some approvals—I remember wanting to cry!


32 posted on 09/10/2012 7:05:57 AM PDT by nclaurel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

This surprises me. Civitas is a conservative group here in NC that does polling and their polls are not that bad for the Kenyan. In fact at a recent AFP event here in Raleigh it was said to be 50% split on some approvals—I remember wanting to cry!


33 posted on 09/10/2012 7:06:03 AM PDT by nclaurel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: pabianice
Against all odds, Obama seems to be winning.

Exactly, against all odds. The MSM would have us believe that trends from the past 75 years don't matter when it comes to Obama. He'll be the ONE to overcome the staggering deficit and crippling unemployment. He'll be the ONE to overcome the doubling of gas prices and higher food and energy prices. He'll be the ONE to overcome low consumer confidence.

FRiends, take a breath and stay focused. We knew the MSM were in the tank for Obama and it's really beginning to kick in now. Stay on message. We're less than two months away!

34 posted on 09/10/2012 7:07:07 AM PDT by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: scbison

Yes. No doubt. They chose that state for their convention for a very good reason. They thought they could win NC again. There is no way they would have done it otherwise. This is a good thing. We are battling in the top 3 red-leaning swing states and in blue states right now, not traditional red states. R/R are committing resources to CO, NV, IA, and WI. If we are in the running in those states, the field is stretched in our favor. We have a battle on our hands for OH, and VA...those are the only ones I believe are must-wins and still up in the air. FL looks good, but could slip if R/R doesn’t get aggressive.


35 posted on 09/10/2012 7:07:08 AM PDT by ilgipper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

In an entirely plausible scenario, Mittens can win without Ohio.

2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, NV (*or CO), IA, WI = 270EV (*or 273EV)

So much has been made of what Mittens must do to win, when really (a) Bobo's cadre has already admitted they're playing off the Kerry map to lose; and (b) any inroads Mittens makes into the Rust Belt and/or Intermountain West cripples Bobo's path to victory.

Because reapportionment gives Mittens team so many angles of attack at 270, states like WI and NV are must-win for Bobo.

But I see the handwringing bedwetters are in full shrill elsewhere on this thread. FU Freetards you should be ashamed of yourselves.

36 posted on 09/10/2012 7:07:15 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NE1, IA = 272EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Well, what else is he going to say? “Panic has struck the Romney campaign, and we’re in BIG trouble!”?


37 posted on 09/10/2012 7:09:09 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
Son'r know, but Jim Vandehei was on Morning Joe this morning and he said the Romney camp is very open in private conversations about the fact that their internals aren't great.

Yet . . . here they are, fighting the same battle McCain fought using the same tactics.

Somebody better wake them up before we wind up with Obama for another 4 years--something I would never have believed possible a month ago. This race should be down-hill with the wind at your back easy for anyone against Obama . . . even Romney.
38 posted on 09/10/2012 7:09:23 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Member of the BBB Club - Bye-Bye-Barry!!! President Barack "Down Low" Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

Some of you missed Drudge's notes on bounce...

FLASHBACK: GALLUP HAD CARTER UP 4 PTS OVER REAGAN IN SEPT 1980 [+8 IN OCT]...

FLASHBACK: DUKAKIS +17 OVER BUSH AFTER DNC 1988...

39 posted on 09/10/2012 7:14:21 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NE1, IA = 272EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Sudetenland

Uh huh. What conservative even watches that show.

Oh you might wanna check out this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2928916/posts

POST #12


40 posted on 09/10/2012 7:15:32 AM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper

Another weird thing is that Ryan is campaigning in Oregon which I woudln’t expect.


41 posted on 09/10/2012 7:30:35 AM PDT by scbison
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Texas56

Exactly, this should have been the Republicans shoo-in year. Any ABO should be able to run with it. The economy, gas prices, obamacare, his attacks on religeon our constitution, the military, all his commie appointments. Romney needs to ask Newt to coach him, Newt’s advice would probably be to just attack him like you did me.


42 posted on 09/10/2012 7:36:27 AM PDT by duffee (Romney 2012, NEWT 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: COBOL2Java
"Chris Matthews eyeballs rapidly spinning counter-clockwise trying to see whether the expression “sugar-high” is racist."

Are you kidding? Sugar used to be grown on Caribbean plantations, where African slaves were used as labor. Can't you see the racist implications here?? /s

43 posted on 09/10/2012 7:41:24 AM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Don't be afraid to see what you see. (Ronald Reagan))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Astronaut

i agree!
...Carter was up by 10? at this point?
Dukakis was up by 14 after the DNC convention.
-
except for massive voter fraud with absentee ballots
(which the voter ID laws won’t catch, even if they stand...)
this election will be a landslide of historic proportions.


44 posted on 09/10/2012 7:49:00 AM PDT by Elendur (It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. - Thomas Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

Comment #45 Removed by Moderator

To: Perdogg
I'm in NC. Still seeing commercials for Romney, as of yesterday.

I figured that they were keeping the foundation solid.

46 posted on 09/10/2012 9:32:46 AM PDT by wbill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Roses0508
I'm in central NC, too. I was at a small town "festival" over the weekend. Granted, it's a fairly conservative small town, but still...

I saw plenty of Republican candidates with booths there. Lots of "Romney" signs.

Obama didn't have a presence at all. And, I don't know about *all* the Dem candidates (I'm not familiar with all of the locals) but I didn't see any presence for Dem national or state offices either.

I was a little surprised, this would be a good place for them to move the needle, as it were. Instead, Nada.

47 posted on 09/10/2012 9:45:14 AM PDT by wbill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: StAnDeliver
handwringing bedwetters are in full shrill

Lots of "Concern Trolls" on FR for the past 48 hours or so. I was on one thread that had a number of posts denigrating Romney with exactly the same language, but the posters' names were all different.

Sez me, there's a few indians in the woodpile.

I'm not in love with Romney, but he's a dammed sight better than what we've got now.

48 posted on 09/10/2012 9:49:47 AM PDT by wbill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

An encouraging read, I must say....

” Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. “

My family was part of that effort.


49 posted on 09/10/2012 10:02:11 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
You'd be surprised how many conservatives watch Morning Joe. All it takes is an interest in what the other side is saying and a strong stomach.

I have learned to set the bias aside for the superior format and generally higher level of discourse as compared to "Fox and Friends," which I find banal and uninteresting.
50 posted on 09/10/2012 10:35:22 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Member of the BBB Club - Bye-Bye-Barry!!! President Barack "Down Low" Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-53 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson