Skip to comments.Poll: Obama Edges Romney in New Mexico
Posted on 09/10/2012 10:13:49 AM PDT by mandaladon
President Obama holds a small lead over Mitt Romney in New Mexico, a key battleground state that has been trending in the Democrat's favor.
Obama attracts 45 percent of the support to Romneys 40 percent, with 8 percent of voters undecided, according to an Albuquerque Journal poll of likely voters. The survey includes the state's former governor, Gary Johnson, who is running as the Libertarian candidate; he garners 7 percent of the support. Romney edges Obama among independent voters -- who make up 17 percent of the electorate -- 38 percent to 35 percent.
The president carries 56 percent of self-identifying Hispanic voters, a key constituency to Obamas potential success there in November. Romney wins 26 percent of the Hispanic vote, with 12 percent undecided about which candidate they will support on Election Day. Romney leads Obama among those who consider themselves to be Anglo, 48 percent to 39 percent. Obama holds a relatively small lead among women, compared to other polls, 46 percent to 40 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The 8 percent undecided voters will go for Romney at the end, undecideds always break for the challenger
I’ve noticed Obama has started falling back to earth in gallup, over the weekend his approval was up by 11 points, today it’s 6 points, he’s fallen 5 points overnight, by the end of the week he will be back to his pre-convention numbers.
Bill Clinton was impeached in his second term.
Totally misleading spin. NM is supposed to be a solidly blue state that it is this close is bad new for 0.
Obama always seems to do better on the weekend, the prick will fall down to earth with more people waking up and saying to themselves “Holy crap the economy sucks.”
Obama “edging” Romney in New Mexico is devastaging news for the Zero campaign.
How about something like: “Looks like Romney's going to win New Mexico—Obama campaign panicked!”
Has Romney even been running ads in New Mexico?
NM is a Democrat state, especially with the current Latino voter trends. The fact that NM is tightening is really, really interesting. Add this to WI, MI, IA and others, and the states that had a great Republican year in 2010 are looking like they are still trending well in our direction.
Loos like Romney is comfortably ahead with anglos.
This blue state should already be in Obama's pocket but it could be a pick-up for Romney.
Romney will win New Mexico by 3 points. The 8 percent who are undecided will break for Romney. Obama already has his voters locked in, the undecided ones are the ones thinking “Should I vote for Romney or stay home?” Once they see the debates they will break for Romney and Obama will be in deep doo doo
New Mexico would be a huge pickup for the GOP. Don’t forget that Republican Susana Martinez won the governorship there in 2010 and she’s doing a great job there.
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If someone was going to support Obama, they would have done it already, they dont need to wait days before the election to all of a sudden support him. Those undecideds are still trying to figure Romney out and see if he’s the right guy to vote for
America knows who Obama is. He's got all the votes he's ever going to persuade, and they're pretty much just the 'I hate Republicans' vote which is only for the true believers. You'd really have to want to save Obama to go vote for him.
Reminds me of the last two years watching people go idiotic over the Rasmussen polls (e.g. "Obama is at -21 approval! He's toast! Oh no! Now he's at only -17 approval!? What's WRONG with America? Yahoo! Obama at -24, the highest approval gap EVER! Oh my God! Now it's -18! I want to cry!") and the various elections I've witnessed since my FR membership began in 1998.
I swear, I want to slap some of you.
Keep Calm and Carry On.
Only fifty-six percent support for Obama from New Mexico Hispanics? That’s, what, an eleven percent drop from ‘08?
New Mexico does this every election cycle in an attempt to exaggerate its own importance to the point that its politican gods might deign to stop over every now and then rather than just fly over.
Clinton was here a lot, largely because the adoring Chicanas presented an opportunity.
There are so few people, so few electoral votes and so little interest in getting rid of the patron system that has prevailed for 400 years that these stories about New Mexico suddenly turning into a swing state every time there is a national election is ludicrous. It is a blue state in a sea of red.
There are people here still arguing over the terms of the Treaty of Guadalupe / Hidalgo; there are regularly counties with more voter turnout than residents; and it regularly takes the major counties weeks and months to tally the votes because the dead or illegal voters are old, slow, stupid or need a ride. There was an argument at the time Congress was debating whether or not to admit New Mexico to the Union. There was a large faction convinced that New Mexico lacked the innate ability most other states exhibited to govern itself.
There was a lot of truth in that argument then and now.
It wouldn't surprise me if there are precinct judges that are dead or illegal.
Speaking of Susana, people were writing lots of letters to the Journal because not one of the major networks carried her speech at the RNC. Not one. Here you had the first ever female hispanic Governor in US history give a major convention speech and not a single network carried it! Any bets on whether they would have cut her out if she had been a Democrat?
“there are regularly counties with more voter turnout than residents”
One heavily hispanic precinct here in Grant County had 100% voter turn out last election. A very civic duty minded people in that precinct.
I expect a real push by the Catholics closer to the election.
I’ve felt that New Mexico is inching towards being more competitive for Republicans. The power of the dems is diminishing in the state legislature and I hope it continues.
I am a bit worried about the senate race. It should be a lot easier to beat Heinrich. The guy is a loon. Wilson needs to go all out. She literally has nothing left to lose.
Closer Than They Appear
by Nick Panagakis
How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll respondents who stated a candidate preference.
But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.
The 155 polls we collected and analyzed were the final polls conducted in each particular race; most were completed within two weeks of election day. They cover both general and primary elections, and Democratic and Republican incumbents. They are predominantly from statewide races, with a few U.S. House, mayoral and countywide contests thrown in. Most are from the 1986 and 1988 elections, although a few stretch back to the 1970s.
The polls we studied included our own surveys, polls provided to us directly by CBS, Gallup, Gordon S. Black Corp., Market Opinion Research, Tarrance Associates, and Mason-Dixon Opinion Research, as well as polls that appeared in The Polling Report.
In 127 cases out of 155, most or all of the undecideds went for the challenger:
DISPOSITION OF UNDECIDED VOTERS
Most to challenger 127
Split equally 9
Most to incumbent 19
Gary Johnson playing spoiler?
This is the 2nd poll from NM recently that shows it close. Another one last week, had O up 3. Didn’t O win this by 15 points in 2008?
Thats why this O is winning poll meme, just doesn’t fly. The only states both O and R are campaigning in, are the states O won in 2008.
They are ... New mexico is in play... but the libertarians will keep it in the D column. if that happens in Virginia as well ... then you can thank the 3rd party vote for delivering another Obama term.
Remember, Clinton NEVER won a majority of the vote ... he never had to.
“Totally misleading spin. NM is supposed to be a solidly blue state that it is this close is bad new for 0.”
Yes. Romney team should put some money into that. We have a senate seat at play too. In a blowout we can win both.