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Memo from Romney campaign pollster: Mellow out about the bad polls lately
hotair.com ^

Posted on 09/10/2012 2:28:50 PM PDT by tsowellfan

Erick Erickson’s exactly right about this. Two simple points. One: Needless to say, the race isn’t over. O got his bounce — he’s up to 50 percent and a five-point lead today in Rasmussen — but it’ll fade. In fact, it looks like he’s already leveling off in Gallup’s tracker, with his job approval now down two points from its peak of 52 percent four days ago. Things will tighten up. Even your friendly neighborhood eeyorepundit thinks so...

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election2012; romney

1 posted on 09/10/2012 2:28:57 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: tsowellfan

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points


2 posted on 09/10/2012 2:30:00 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: tsowellfan

So how are the people in the Chicken Little Choir around here going to spin this poll, released today, in order to cling to their doctrine of preemptive political surrender?

President Obama’s lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll. Romney gains support from men, southern, rural, and Hispanic voters this month.

Q: If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2% Refused
Category Obama Romney Not sure Refused
Overall 46% 44% 8% 2%
Region
Northeast 53% 35% 9% 2%
Midwest 49% 42% 8% 1%
South 39% 51% 8% 2%
West 45% 43% 8% 4%
Age
18-44 49% 39% 9% 3%
45-64 45% 47% 6% 2%
65+ 41% 47% 9% 3%
Gender
Male 40% 48% 10% 2%
Female 51% 40% 6% 2%
Race
White 37% 52% 8% 2%
Black/Hispanic 80% 12% 4% 4%
Income
Under 30K 50% 36% 7% 6%
30K-50K 47% 43% 10% 0%
50-75K 41% 48% 9% 1%
75K+ 47% 47% 5% 1%
Party
Democrats 85% 9% 3% 3%
Republicans 6% 88% 4% 2%
Ind./Other 41% 41% 17% 1%
Investor Class
Yes 44% 48% 6% 2%
No 47% 40% 10% 3%
Area Type
Urban 61% 29% 10% 0%
Suburban 48% 40% 9% 4%
Rural 34% 58% 6% 2%
White
White men 30% 57% 12% 1%
White women 44% 48% 5% 2%
Black/Hispanic
Black 88% 6% 2% 4%
Hispanic 62% 27% 8% 4%
Women
Single women 57% 30% 10% 4%
Married women 45% 50% 4% 1%
Education
High School 51% 39% 8% 2%
Some College 33% 52% 11% 4%
College Degree or more 50% 42% 6% 2%
Ideology
Conservative 21% 70% 7% 3%
Moderate 56% 34% 8% 1%
Liberal 88% 3% 9% 1%
Household Description
Upper/Upper Middle 38% 53% 6% 3%
Middle 47% 44% 7% 1%
Working 42% 46% 9% 2%
Lower 54% 28% 11% 8%
Religion
Protestant 36% 55% 6% 3%
Catholic 46% 44% 7% 2%
Other Christian 43% 47% 8% 3%
Jewish 59% 35% 6% 0%
Other 38% 47% 15% 0%
None 73% 17% 8% 2%
Union Household
Yes 53% 34% 10% 3%
No 44% 46% 7% 2%
2008 Vote
Obama 82% 9% 7% 2%
McCain 4% 90% 5% 1%

The TIPP Poll was conducted from September 4 to September 9 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 808 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.

Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%), Not sure/Refused(3%)

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.
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3 posted on 09/10/2012 2:30:22 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: tsowellfan

They are push polling and over sampling...

The energy just isn’t there and his turnout will be low enough that Rodney sshould prevail.


4 posted on 09/10/2012 2:32:46 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: MrChips

TIPP was very accurate in calling the undecideds in 2008.

This article is short and has some of the same points Rush was making today about pollers using phoney numbers to create a herd mentality.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/67204268/TIPP_accuracy_2008.pdf


5 posted on 09/10/2012 2:38:57 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: MNJohnnie

That is probably a pretty good poll And probably, Romney needs to make up a few points if he is going to win.

And he’s got like six weeks to do so. This is going to be a very frightening couple of weeks.....


6 posted on 09/10/2012 2:40:56 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: MNJohnnie
Thank you for some sanity....Getting sick of all the panicing around here.

This is the cycle that occurs after the conventions, the media for the most part is in the tank for Obama and LYING seems to be a required character trait to be a Dimrat

.....nothing new here folks! We're going to win this and each day its getting harder for them to fake the numbers as people settle in.

7 posted on 09/10/2012 2:42:22 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: ConservativeDude

all the polls favoring Obama is a reuse to depress the conservatives.....A scheme by Asslerod and Billayers


8 posted on 09/10/2012 2:43:09 PM PDT by Bullfrogg (American by birth, Irish by heritage, and hellraiser by choice)
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To: thingumbob

It’s not the numbers, it’s the lackadaisical campaign.


9 posted on 09/10/2012 2:43:17 PM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: MNJohnnie

6% of ‘Republicans’ voting for Obama? Why would you identify yourself as a Republican even if a RINO?


10 posted on 09/10/2012 2:45:20 PM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: Vendome

Push polling is bad — it’s only use is to produce the desired results.

However, over sampling can often be a valid methodology. For instance, where you want to break the results down by various strata. You might have to over sample some of the strata, to get the desired margin of error. You then have to do some arithmetic, in the analysis, to compensate for the over sampling. This is SOP in survey research. (Note: I’m not trying to say that there couldn’t have been misuse of oversampling in these polls.)


11 posted on 09/10/2012 2:46:18 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: MrChips

One thing is certain... even when we discount the Democrat oversampling, we cannot ignore the more trusted poss like Rasmussen (which polls likely voters ).

It REALLY looks like Obama is leading in the polls at this point in time. We have to be realistic. It is what it is.

The main question is not whether or not the economy is bad. The economy IS bad and people know it.

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.

I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:

1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).

2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.

3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.

4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.

5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.

Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.

Once a significant number of our populace suck on the government’s teat.... it becomes like a drug which is very difficult to withdraw from and they will vote accordingly.


12 posted on 09/10/2012 2:46:52 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: MrChips

One thing is certain... even when we discount the Democrat oversampling, we cannot ignore the more trusted pollsters like Rasmussen (which polls likely voters ).

It REALLY looks like Obama is leading in the polls at this point in time. We have to be realistic. It is what it is.

The main question is not whether or not the economy is bad. The economy IS bad and people know it.

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.

I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:

1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).

2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.

3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.

4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.

5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.

Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.

Once a significant number of our populace suck on the government’s teat.... it becomes like a drug which is very difficult to withdraw from and they will vote accordingly.


13 posted on 09/10/2012 2:47:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: MNJohnnie

Do you know what “margin of error” means? This one says it has a 3.5% one, a rather large one, due to its sub-1,000 sample. That means technically Romney and Obama could have been tied in their last poll and Romney could be 5 points ahead now or Obama could be 9 points ahead now. Polls are not an exact science. But the trend among all the polls is clear, Obama is doing better than he has been for a long time, almost certainly because they put on a very effective convention that bashed the Republican party hardcore while the RNC didn’t even mention the term “Democrat” at their convention as far as I can remember.

The days of saying the polls are “rigged” ended in 2008 when everyone said that about the Obama/McCain polls, and then the polls proved to be correct.


14 posted on 09/10/2012 2:47:46 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: tsowellfan

I use AOLANYWHERE as my email. I know I know but I was one of the first 10K to use AOL. It works for me. But, I have to have a sticky note because all the time and I mean all the time, the ad on the right side is either Obama or Michelle. I saw Romney once. Romney needs to spend that money and fast.


16 posted on 09/10/2012 2:49:06 PM PDT by Mercat (Hey, this guy sounds great! He should take over for the guy that didn’t do all this stuff)
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To: MNJohnnie

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.


17 posted on 09/10/2012 2:49:06 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: RedStatePatriot2012
The ads were pretty simple generic stuff in the message. The economy was bad under Obama and Romney has a plan to fix it.

BINGO!

18 posted on 09/10/2012 2:50:55 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: tsowellfan

Rove’s consulting/SuperPAC empire is about to collapse on him and he’s in panic mode. After losing 2006, 2008 and getting his butt handed to him by the Tea Party in 2010, if he loses this election, I certainly hope he will finally be put out to pasture by the party and his donors.


19 posted on 09/10/2012 2:52:22 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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To: SeekAndFind

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.

I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:

1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).

2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.

3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.

4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.

5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.

Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.


Worth repeating! I agree! That’s why this election is the most important. If Obama wins, these numbers of dependents will surely rise to a point where in 2016 our republican candidate will only have a chance if he can run to the LEFT of whoever their candidate is. And we do NOT want that.


20 posted on 09/10/2012 2:54:54 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: RedStatePatriot2012
I was one of the last to come on board the Romney wagon, and I saw all the ads for all the states. I thought they were a little "light" in terms of not being nasty, but I didn't catch anything about Obama being shown favorably. All of them had Obama dark grey; all hit three stats, specifically targeted to each state, on employment; all gave a specific stat that Romney would fix. For about a 30 second ad (or one minute), I thought it wouldn't appeal to me but I think it will appeal to all those who voted for Obama the first time but want to back out without being called a racist.

But a guy who has spent his life running for pres is NOT going to deliberately tank. And I think he is still working his ruthless stuff behind the scenes.

21 posted on 09/10/2012 3:06:10 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind
I seriously doubt Obama will receive 52.87% of the vote this time around. He is below 2008 levels among whites, independents, and young people.

Coming up during the next 7 weeks are: four debates (including the one VP debate;) the sequestration plan (the deadline has already been missed) from the WH detailing the cuts it will make; another debt ceiling battle as we go over the $16 trillion mark; House legislation covering the fiscal cliff, which will raise the debt, deficit, and Obamacare issues; continuing high gas prices that could sky rocket should Israel decide to take out the Iranian nuclear program before November 6th; the continuing Eurozone problems that are impacting the global economy including our own; and perhaps a few bombshells on Obama's personal narrative.

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If that is an issue now, how do you explain what happened in 2010? Has the Tea Party disappeared? (I know that is not the case here in VA). How did Scott Walker stave off the huge union effort to have him recalled?

I just get a little tired of the Chicken Littles who are running around because of the daily poll numbers. And I have a hard time understanding why even so-called conservatives have this collective amnesia about what happened in 2010. Things have gotten worse since 2010 yet Obama is more popular? I don't think so.

We need to stop being stampeded by the polls into this herd mentality. I strongly believe this is Romney's race to lose. As long as we keep it as referendum on Obama, we will emerge victorious. Fear is a great motivator. Go to the polls and get your neighbors, friends, and families to vote. It is the most meaningful election in our lifetime. We have a clear choice.

22 posted on 09/10/2012 3:09:47 PM PDT by kabar
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To: tsowellfan

The good news is that the “Obama bounce” will or is starting to fade.


23 posted on 09/10/2012 3:11:58 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: RedStatePatriot2012

You just joined FR two days ago. I don’t believe a word you are saying.


24 posted on 09/10/2012 3:12:15 PM PDT by kabar
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To: tsowellfan

Newhouse has a rep in the political industry as being tough as nails and very much of a take no prisoners attitude. His polling firm used to give out teeshirts with their logo and a quote from Attilla the Hun: “Its not enough that I win, all others must lose”.

I’m not saying that this isn’t all just a nice pep talk from him. But the very fact that he’s Romneys pollster says that Romney is in this to win and is going to play to win.

We’re one week past Labor Day. Still two months to go until the election. Obama may, possibly, have gotten a decent bounce. But he didn’t break the election open ... which is what all the pundits were saying a week ago that he NEEDED to do.

Stout hearts, everyone. This is no time to go wobbly.


25 posted on 09/10/2012 3:16:08 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: kabar

I too is getting fed up with the debbie downers in FR. The truth is that people tend to lie to the poll takers so as not to be thought of as being racists. Obama is done.


26 posted on 09/10/2012 3:21:17 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: kabar

There’s a troll in the house. We need an exterminator.


27 posted on 09/10/2012 3:23:30 PM PDT by DWC (historian)
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To: Biggirl

But you must admit it’s hard when somebody asks why I support Romney, and the only answer I can come up with is, “He’s not Obama.”


28 posted on 09/10/2012 3:25:50 PM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: dfwgator

Reminds me of the Obama strategy in 2008. Anybody but Bush with McCain being a third term of Bush. Anybody but the Marxist Radical in the WH who wants to transform this country is good enough to me. Four more years of Obama and the country is finished. There is no coming back.


29 posted on 09/10/2012 3:28:35 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

That’s pretty much what every election since 1984 has been, vote against, not for somebody.


30 posted on 09/10/2012 3:29:34 PM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: dfwgator

Do you have a mouse in your pocket or are you speaking only for yourself? The choice for me has always been between The Stupid Party versus the Evil Party.


31 posted on 09/10/2012 3:34:58 PM PDT by kabar
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To: RedStatePatriot2012

Welcome aboard, (not) RedStatePatriot2012!

RedStatePatriot2012: since 2012-09-08 (2 days ago).

Be vigilant, real FRiends. The vermin at the DNC and the LSM have opened up the floodgates from DU and who knows where else to try to demoralize us. Believe nothing you read, see or hear. They are flooding us with newbie trolls.

Make sure you vote on Nov. 6th.


32 posted on 09/10/2012 3:38:54 PM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik (In a tornado, even turkeys can fly.)
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To: SnuffaBolshevik

No wonder I was kicking a few what I thought were FRpers butts. They were TROLLS.


33 posted on 09/10/2012 4:08:22 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I wonder what percent of the unemployed want a job!


34 posted on 09/10/2012 4:15:44 PM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: tsowellfan
This campaign must like these poll numbers...because they need not even exist....that is, if the R's would smarten up and bring in the big guns to stump for MITT....for exmple, the INESTIMABLE SARAH PALIN and her MIGHTY MIGHTY TEA PARTY....I don't know if the campaign is having attendance problems but they would be over and MITT'D lead the polls if he'd smarten up and ask Sarah's help....Who wouldn't want to have THIS STUNNER along side as he addresses voters? I DON'T GET IT ! sarahphotobuck
35 posted on 09/10/2012 4:21:34 PM PDT by jimsin (u)
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To: tsowellfan
Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

Rove is one of the single biggest players in this election. Supporting Romney to the tune of millions upon millions of dollars through his SuperPAC. Of course he is going to say that.

I don't understand why people can't just admit that Romney is plainly losing. It's sad to watch our side whining about polls. It stinks of 2008 all over again - and 2006 before that. Yes, there are some bad polls here and there, but the trend is absolutely clear - Obama is winning. Romney is just running a lackluster, play-it-safe campaign and it's not working. The DNC convention was masterful. I'm sorry, I hate their message too, but it worked. Our convention was boring, giant pile of mush. These ads that I see in Virginia the Romney camp are running are dull, uninteresting and are probably swaying no one. The Democrats, with their allies in the media, are simply running rings around Romney, the GOP and quite frankly conservatives in the new media too. The Democrats are outflanking Republicans at every turn, they are getting their message out, they are dictating what the story of the day will be. Romney is not attacking in a way that gets any media attention, and when he is on TV he appears to be guarded, on the defensive and generally uninspiring.

36 posted on 09/10/2012 4:31:20 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: JediJones

One of the problems the GOP had with Bush is the mindless head nodding and a lack of a reform discussion and agenda out of conservatives.

I support getting Obammy out of office and we won’t accomplish that mission head nodding with the same losing strategy advisors used to sink McCain.

Given the state of the corruption, economy and the disgusting sights and sounds of the DNC convention, Obama’s opposition should be soaring.

He needs to offer up something people will want to vote for and he needs to be alarmed about the mess of the economy and debt. Like when he claimed he will repeal parts of Obamacare but like other parts...he should have talked about what he does not like about Obamacare and his desire to fix healthcare and still respect people’s and doctor’s freedom.

Americans won’t elect a more clever, amoral, anti-constitution (anti-individual freedom) global socialist than the one they have. They won’t elect him even if FR head nodders get their way and everyone just bangs their heads with Romneybots. We can’t pretend he needs to step it up.


37 posted on 09/10/2012 5:18:20 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: Biggirl

The article isn’t all roses though. There are some real concerns there.


38 posted on 09/10/2012 5:22:19 PM PDT by paul544
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To: paul544

I still that the bounce for Obama is fading.


39 posted on 09/10/2012 5:24:54 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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