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Memo from Romney campaign pollster: Mellow out about the bad polls lately
hotair.com ^

Posted on 09/10/2012 2:28:50 PM PDT by tsowellfan

Erick Erickson’s exactly right about this. Two simple points. One: Needless to say, the race isn’t over. O got his bounce — he’s up to 50 percent and a five-point lead today in Rasmussen — but it’ll fade. In fact, it looks like he’s already leveling off in Gallup’s tracker, with his job approval now down two points from its peak of 52 percent four days ago. Things will tighten up. Even your friendly neighborhood eeyorepundit thinks so...

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election2012; romney
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1 posted on 09/10/2012 2:28:57 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: tsowellfan

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points


2 posted on 09/10/2012 2:30:00 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: tsowellfan

So how are the people in the Chicken Little Choir around here going to spin this poll, released today, in order to cling to their doctrine of preemptive political surrender?

President Obama’s lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll. Romney gains support from men, southern, rural, and Hispanic voters this month.

Q: If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2% Refused
Category Obama Romney Not sure Refused
Overall 46% 44% 8% 2%
Region
Northeast 53% 35% 9% 2%
Midwest 49% 42% 8% 1%
South 39% 51% 8% 2%
West 45% 43% 8% 4%
Age
18-44 49% 39% 9% 3%
45-64 45% 47% 6% 2%
65+ 41% 47% 9% 3%
Gender
Male 40% 48% 10% 2%
Female 51% 40% 6% 2%
Race
White 37% 52% 8% 2%
Black/Hispanic 80% 12% 4% 4%
Income
Under 30K 50% 36% 7% 6%
30K-50K 47% 43% 10% 0%
50-75K 41% 48% 9% 1%
75K+ 47% 47% 5% 1%
Party
Democrats 85% 9% 3% 3%
Republicans 6% 88% 4% 2%
Ind./Other 41% 41% 17% 1%
Investor Class
Yes 44% 48% 6% 2%
No 47% 40% 10% 3%
Area Type
Urban 61% 29% 10% 0%
Suburban 48% 40% 9% 4%
Rural 34% 58% 6% 2%
White
White men 30% 57% 12% 1%
White women 44% 48% 5% 2%
Black/Hispanic
Black 88% 6% 2% 4%
Hispanic 62% 27% 8% 4%
Women
Single women 57% 30% 10% 4%
Married women 45% 50% 4% 1%
Education
High School 51% 39% 8% 2%
Some College 33% 52% 11% 4%
College Degree or more 50% 42% 6% 2%
Ideology
Conservative 21% 70% 7% 3%
Moderate 56% 34% 8% 1%
Liberal 88% 3% 9% 1%
Household Description
Upper/Upper Middle 38% 53% 6% 3%
Middle 47% 44% 7% 1%
Working 42% 46% 9% 2%
Lower 54% 28% 11% 8%
Religion
Protestant 36% 55% 6% 3%
Catholic 46% 44% 7% 2%
Other Christian 43% 47% 8% 3%
Jewish 59% 35% 6% 0%
Other 38% 47% 15% 0%
None 73% 17% 8% 2%
Union Household
Yes 53% 34% 10% 3%
No 44% 46% 7% 2%
2008 Vote
Obama 82% 9% 7% 2%
McCain 4% 90% 5% 1%

The TIPP Poll was conducted from September 4 to September 9 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 808 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.

Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%), Not sure/Refused(3%)

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.
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3 posted on 09/10/2012 2:30:22 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: tsowellfan

They are push polling and over sampling...

The energy just isn’t there and his turnout will be low enough that Rodney sshould prevail.


4 posted on 09/10/2012 2:32:46 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: MrChips

TIPP was very accurate in calling the undecideds in 2008.

This article is short and has some of the same points Rush was making today about pollers using phoney numbers to create a herd mentality.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/67204268/TIPP_accuracy_2008.pdf


5 posted on 09/10/2012 2:38:57 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: MNJohnnie

That is probably a pretty good poll And probably, Romney needs to make up a few points if he is going to win.

And he’s got like six weeks to do so. This is going to be a very frightening couple of weeks.....


6 posted on 09/10/2012 2:40:56 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: MNJohnnie
Thank you for some sanity....Getting sick of all the panicing around here.

This is the cycle that occurs after the conventions, the media for the most part is in the tank for Obama and LYING seems to be a required character trait to be a Dimrat

.....nothing new here folks! We're going to win this and each day its getting harder for them to fake the numbers as people settle in.

7 posted on 09/10/2012 2:42:22 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: ConservativeDude

all the polls favoring Obama is a reuse to depress the conservatives.....A scheme by Asslerod and Billayers


8 posted on 09/10/2012 2:43:09 PM PDT by Bullfrogg (American by birth, Irish by heritage, and hellraiser by choice)
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To: thingumbob

It’s not the numbers, it’s the lackadaisical campaign.


9 posted on 09/10/2012 2:43:17 PM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: MNJohnnie

6% of ‘Republicans’ voting for Obama? Why would you identify yourself as a Republican even if a RINO?


10 posted on 09/10/2012 2:45:20 PM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: Vendome

Push polling is bad — it’s only use is to produce the desired results.

However, over sampling can often be a valid methodology. For instance, where you want to break the results down by various strata. You might have to over sample some of the strata, to get the desired margin of error. You then have to do some arithmetic, in the analysis, to compensate for the over sampling. This is SOP in survey research. (Note: I’m not trying to say that there couldn’t have been misuse of oversampling in these polls.)


11 posted on 09/10/2012 2:46:18 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: MrChips

One thing is certain... even when we discount the Democrat oversampling, we cannot ignore the more trusted poss like Rasmussen (which polls likely voters ).

It REALLY looks like Obama is leading in the polls at this point in time. We have to be realistic. It is what it is.

The main question is not whether or not the economy is bad. The economy IS bad and people know it.

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.

I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:

1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).

2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.

3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.

4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.

5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.

Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.

Once a significant number of our populace suck on the government’s teat.... it becomes like a drug which is very difficult to withdraw from and they will vote accordingly.


12 posted on 09/10/2012 2:46:52 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: MrChips

One thing is certain... even when we discount the Democrat oversampling, we cannot ignore the more trusted pollsters like Rasmussen (which polls likely voters ).

It REALLY looks like Obama is leading in the polls at this point in time. We have to be realistic. It is what it is.

The main question is not whether or not the economy is bad. The economy IS bad and people know it.

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.

I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:

1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).

2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.

3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.

4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.

5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.

Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.

Once a significant number of our populace suck on the government’s teat.... it becomes like a drug which is very difficult to withdraw from and they will vote accordingly.


13 posted on 09/10/2012 2:47:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: MNJohnnie

Do you know what “margin of error” means? This one says it has a 3.5% one, a rather large one, due to its sub-1,000 sample. That means technically Romney and Obama could have been tied in their last poll and Romney could be 5 points ahead now or Obama could be 9 points ahead now. Polls are not an exact science. But the trend among all the polls is clear, Obama is doing better than he has been for a long time, almost certainly because they put on a very effective convention that bashed the Republican party hardcore while the RNC didn’t even mention the term “Democrat” at their convention as far as I can remember.

The days of saying the polls are “rigged” ended in 2008 when everyone said that about the Obama/McCain polls, and then the polls proved to be correct.


14 posted on 09/10/2012 2:47:46 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: tsowellfan

I use AOLANYWHERE as my email. I know I know but I was one of the first 10K to use AOL. It works for me. But, I have to have a sticky note because all the time and I mean all the time, the ad on the right side is either Obama or Michelle. I saw Romney once. Romney needs to spend that money and fast.


16 posted on 09/10/2012 2:49:06 PM PDT by Mercat (Hey, this guy sounds great! He should take over for the guy that didn’t do all this stuff)
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To: MNJohnnie

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.


17 posted on 09/10/2012 2:49:06 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: RedStatePatriot2012
The ads were pretty simple generic stuff in the message. The economy was bad under Obama and Romney has a plan to fix it.

BINGO!

18 posted on 09/10/2012 2:50:55 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: tsowellfan

Rove’s consulting/SuperPAC empire is about to collapse on him and he’s in panic mode. After losing 2006, 2008 and getting his butt handed to him by the Tea Party in 2010, if he loses this election, I certainly hope he will finally be put out to pasture by the party and his donors.


19 posted on 09/10/2012 2:52:22 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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To: SeekAndFind

However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?

If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.

I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:

1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).

2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.

3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.

4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.

5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.

Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.


Worth repeating! I agree! That’s why this election is the most important. If Obama wins, these numbers of dependents will surely rise to a point where in 2016 our republican candidate will only have a chance if he can run to the LEFT of whoever their candidate is. And we do NOT want that.


20 posted on 09/10/2012 2:54:54 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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