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CNN: Obama 52% Romney 46%, but...
The Hill ^ | 9-10-2012 | Christian Heinze

Posted on 09/10/2012 3:07:59 PM PDT by smoothsailing

September 10, 2012

CNN: Obama 52% Romney 46%, but...

Christian Heinze

A new CNN poll of likely voters confirms a Barack Obama convention bounce, as he now leads Mitt Romney, 52%-46%.

But here's a very curious internal.

Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.

And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.

There's no doubt Obama got a convention bounce, but the independent number indicates a pretty severe oversample among Democrats in this poll.

(Excerpt) Read more at gop12.thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; cnn; obama; polls; romney
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1 posted on 09/10/2012 3:08:01 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

It sure seems that the polls are tweaked, so that it appears that Obama is more popular than he really is.


2 posted on 09/10/2012 3:11:37 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Dilbert San Diego

It’s likely Romney is slightly ahead, so CNN made up for the independent blowout by sampling an unrealistic amount of Demorats.


3 posted on 09/10/2012 3:13:46 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: smoothsailing

Yeah, right, like this poll has any inkling of what an unbiased sampling is or should be.

This is more like a “random walk” poll than anything that has been rigorously controlled as to sample size, internal tests of reliability, or ratios relating to real-life participation as voters.

Rush pointed out on his show today that the closer to election, the more nearly reflective polls become of the realities.

And we haven’t even had any debates yet.


4 posted on 09/10/2012 3:14:53 PM PDT by alloysteel (Are you better off than you were four years ago? Well, are you?)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Wow the race is over if I was a democrat or ward of the state I would be out celebrating with some Obama bucks and don’t even have to go vote.


5 posted on 09/10/2012 3:15:15 PM PDT by funfan
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To: smoothsailing
Rush said something about the poll thing today and others are saying how skewed these polls are....which in essence makes them unreliable and FALSE.

I personally, don't believe Obama is winning anything and that is why so many MSM reports are now claiming he is. Not gonna happen...he's a goner.
6 posted on 09/10/2012 3:16:32 PM PDT by Lucky9teen (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading.~Thomas Jeffer)
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To: smoothsailing

Oversampling Rats??? Ya think????


7 posted on 09/10/2012 3:16:44 PM PDT by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: smoothsailing

Media sure is making a lot of the “Clinton hot flash” Dem sluts got from the convention.

But eventually it will get out that Clinton ain’t running, just that fumbling bozo, and they’ll go back into their doldrums.


8 posted on 09/10/2012 3:17:24 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: smoothsailing

If they continue to play this game, they are in for a rude awakening come November.


9 posted on 09/10/2012 3:20:12 PM PDT by jersey117
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To: smoothsailing

From the top of page 5:

BASED ON 441 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS — (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5% PTS.);
BASED ON 397 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS — (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS.)

............i also find it VERY hard to believe that 50% of the country believes Obama is best on issues of the economy vs. 49% for Romney...it’s very hard to trust these polls


10 posted on 09/10/2012 3:21:07 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: mrsmith
DON'T GET DEMORALIZED....GET MAD!! The pollsters and mediaWHORES are going all out for the Black Turd...IT'S TIME to FIGHT BACK at the voting booth...talk to friends, family members, neighborhood businesses, churches....put boots on the ground...this is WAR!!

IT'S TEA TIME!!!

11 posted on 09/10/2012 3:23:30 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: profit_guy

Polling 110% Dems vs. GOP explains a lot.


12 posted on 09/10/2012 3:23:57 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Election night is 58 days away.)
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To: smoothsailing

How can Mitt be losing if he’s up by 14 among independents?

NOT POSSIBLE


13 posted on 09/10/2012 3:24:42 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: smoothsailing

Where was this poll taken, the upper west side of Manhattan? Across the bay from SF in Marin County? West Los Angeles? Give me a break CNN. Your poll is a fraud.


14 posted on 09/10/2012 3:26:20 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Dilbert San Diego

They are trying to convince folks that their fellow voters are deciding on Obama. People love to follow the trend.


15 posted on 09/10/2012 3:27:06 PM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: smoothsailing

If you assume 33% Independents with the reported 6% of them undecided, then the CNN figure would work out if they presumed a 39 to 28% Dem to Rep ratio. Since others are reporting that the Pubbies actually outnumber Dems, that represents at least an 11 percent overage.

If you assume an even number of Dems and Reps, then the number comes out to a 47 to 51% split in favor of Romney.


16 posted on 09/10/2012 3:28:19 PM PDT by the_Watchman
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To: GeronL
How can Mitt be losing if he’s up by 14 among independents?

Answer: He can't be. But the Communist News Network is doing everything they can to demoralize Republican voters. The irony is that the Dem voters will smugly thinking they've got it in the bag. Then, as election day approaches, all of these lib polls will have to start reporting honestly in order to "save face". And they'll be the ones that are demoralized.
17 posted on 09/10/2012 3:30:09 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: profit_guy

Obama says he wants to raise taxes on the rich to help pay to put more Americans back to work. Why is it hard to believe that won’t sound good to most of the country? Liberal policies usually sound good on the surface. It’s the Republicans’ job to explain the logic behind why they’re wrong and why conservative policies are better. But the Republicans didn’t spend much time doing that at their convention, and not very well or clearly when they tried.


18 posted on 09/10/2012 3:30:39 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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To: smoothsailing
Hmmmm.

If Mittens is really pulling numbers like 54-40% among independents, the Zero people are going to need a change of underwear.

Maybe they are seeing numbers like that. It might explain this avalanche of pro-0bama polls, as the Zero campaign calls in all its MSM favors, and asks for skewed polls in order to try to move that number away from Mitty and back towards Zero, as they try to spin a perception that Zero is winning when he's really getting clobbered.

19 posted on 09/10/2012 3:39:21 PM PDT by mojito
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To: the_Watchman

Why does anyone pay attention to CNN or PPP polls. They are democrat polls. They mean nothing. The latest PPP has
the Kenyan leading 49-48% in North Carolina! Pigs will fly before this baby murdering, dope-smoking, queer-loving communist wins NC again. Ain’t gonna happen. These polls are worthless and all the media reports them like they are gospel, even Faux News, who are quickly turning into another CNN.


20 posted on 09/10/2012 3:39:35 PM PDT by NKP_Vet
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To: GeronL
How can Mitt be losing if he’s up by 14 among independents? NOT POSSIBLE

It's possible if you look at CNN's methodology. I laughed out loud the first time I heard how they do polls like this one. I prefer not to follow up with details, but I would dismiss this result completely.

21 posted on 09/10/2012 3:41:29 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Signalman

Maybe we are seeing why FDR extended the depression with the same kind of policies


22 posted on 09/10/2012 3:42:37 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: smoothsailing
If any of these pollsters say that Romney is ahead they will have the DOJ and 0bama for America (0fA) come down on them hard. So lets just keep on working and giving to Romney/Ryan and see if they have the balls to put our the real results the day before the election! ;-)
23 posted on 09/10/2012 3:43:08 PM PDT by SubMareener (Save us from Quarterly Freepathons! Become a MONTHLY DONOR!)
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To: NKP_Vet

Well Romney does need to fight his way to the victory, with appearances by himself and his surrogates. I mean assertive appearances. It isn’t going to be handed to him because he says people need jobs.

I do think his crew is smart enough to realize that.


24 posted on 09/10/2012 3:43:45 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Signalman

I agree..and I am also betting on that Obama did NOT get any convention bounce at all, or might have even lost a few points, so the media has to build him up again. There is no way that Romney can have a 14 point advantage with Independents and losing(Some on twitter are speculating Romney has at least a 20 point advantage with Indies) just you watch, a week before the election, all of a sudden the pollsters will say that Romney has a 5-6 point lead. They will have to do that to save face. A few days ago when all of these bogus polls came out I was freaking out too, but now I get it


25 posted on 09/10/2012 3:45:27 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Pollster1

Yep. Just the independents thing shows that this is not possible. That is all I need. Even THE HILL is dissing it, lol.

This might as well be an online poll


26 posted on 09/10/2012 3:45:55 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: smoothsailing

No way is this poll even close to reality.


27 posted on 09/10/2012 3:46:29 PM PDT by CityCenter
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
But here's a very curious internal. Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time. And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.
Thanks smoothsailing. Additional: the real story: The DuhBama Recession: that Toddlin' town: NAMBLA et al for Obama: buh-bye:
28 posted on 09/10/2012 3:49:39 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: smoothsailing

If all the polling put together is to be believed at all, Romney is down no more that 5% at this point. That is not a bad place to be. He just needs to start gaining and keep momentum increasing through October.


29 posted on 09/10/2012 3:49:57 PM PDT by jimbobfoster
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To: smoothsailing
I in all honesty have no idea what is going on. I spent Saturday evening with a pack of liberals that can't stand looking at Mitt. No surprise As I am from Massachusetts. Sunday I sat with a lady I consider a smart woman and an Obama supporter. No argument resonates with either of them.
30 posted on 09/10/2012 3:55:05 PM PDT by JIM O
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To: smoothsailing

When I see a CNN poll where they report a poll sayiong that we did a sample 33% Independents, 33% Dems, 33% GOP and 1% minor parties and it gives an favorable number to Obama...then I’ll believe it... but the polling data is always in the D favor.. so it is BS!!


31 posted on 09/10/2012 3:58:07 PM PDT by ExCTCitizen (Yes, Obama, I had help with my business. MY CUSTOMERS!)
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To: smoothsailing

Great!

Get to work, Romney!

Win those debates and go all out to win it.


32 posted on 09/10/2012 4:01:15 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: smoothsailing
feh...
33 posted on 09/10/2012 4:08:39 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: smoothsailing

Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That’s a blowout number

Nothing else needs to be said.


34 posted on 09/10/2012 4:11:50 PM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: profit_guy
This means that there were 184 independents out of the total 1022 sampled. It breaksdown into 43% Dem, 39% Rep, and 18% independent.

I notice that Obama leads among men 48%-47% among likely voters, which is about the same as in 2008. I doubt this will be the case this time given IMO fewer white votes.

Obama gets 42% of the white vote, which is about what he got last time--43%. I just don't believe it.

And Romney gets 54% to 40% of the independent vote. Obama got 52% of Independents compared to 44% for McCain. Independents were 29% of the vote. Compare that to the 18% in the CNN poll.

Here is a pretty good summary on the vote in 2008

35 posted on 09/10/2012 4:13:02 PM PDT by kabar
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To: italianquaker

I think Romney is leading by probably 20 percent amongst Independents. I dont think CNN meant to put that internal number in their polling make-up, that was probably meant to be kept out. THIS is why the media has been saying that Obama got a big bounce from his Convention, I think his numbers dropped from the Convention and this is the media’s way of trying to level the playing field with the enthusiasm. If Romney is leading THAT much with Indies he’s already won


36 posted on 09/10/2012 4:13:45 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: the_Watchman

I ran some numbers on this too.

The standard breakdown for a sample based on the Rasmussen research is R 37% D 33% I 30% (all rounded)

For CNN to achieve the result they did, they used an R 30% D 40% I 30% sample.

That’s D+7 and R-7 !!! A 14 point fudge factor.


37 posted on 09/10/2012 4:14:51 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: Lucky9teen

Just make sure you take a few folks to the polls when you vote.


38 posted on 09/10/2012 4:23:19 PM PDT by NowApproachingMidnight (“Civilizations die from suicide, not murder.")
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To: smoothsailing

Oversampling dems will account for dem dirty tricks, e.g. voting by illegals and the dead. Not saying it’s right but it may be more accurate.


39 posted on 09/10/2012 4:34:08 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: onyx

It’s difficult for any Republican candidate to win the debates when the networks give 0bama his questions in advance and wage a ‘gotcha’ war on the opposition. Look for Romney to get one detailed foreign affairs question after another, such as ‘Who’s the president of Namibia?’ while 0bama gets ‘What’s your favorite pizza topping?”, etc.


40 posted on 09/10/2012 4:35:13 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: smoothsailing
...so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.

People who conduct polls and who want to show a lead for Obama, feel the need to account for the "voters" who can't be really polled, those being the dead and illegals. Those two faithful constituencies, tend to vote 100% for democrats, so, CNN is just accounting for them ahead of the real poll in November.
41 posted on 09/10/2012 4:40:23 PM PDT by adorno
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To: GeronL
Even THE HILL is dissing it, lol.

The source name is very misleading; it's not the well known "The Hill" it's some random blogger calling his site "The Hill."

42 posted on 09/10/2012 4:44:44 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Pollster1

At this point in time wouldn’t it make sense that all polls were of likely voters? They have to be doing these less reliable polls to prop up Obama’s numbers.


43 posted on 09/10/2012 4:45:54 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: smoothsailing

Romney +14 among Indies and Obama up by 6 at 52%. LOL, pollsters and journalists, like leftists in general, have a mutated shame gene.


44 posted on 09/10/2012 4:48:09 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: Strategerist

Very curious...actually it does appear to be a site associated with a writer for “The Hill” and uses the “The Hill” logo but it’s not “The Hill” itself, though it links to “The Hill.”


45 posted on 09/10/2012 4:48:09 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

lol. I was wondering why it was still offering coverage of the GOP nomination


46 posted on 09/10/2012 4:49:12 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I think he received a bump per Ras. That being said it will be fleeting and stink is still stink when it is all said and done


47 posted on 09/10/2012 4:56:16 PM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: mojito; Perdogg; TonyInOhio; Signalman; DarthVader
Look, how many polls have we seen where they admit the Indies are breaking for Romney big---anywhere from 10-15 points? And until just two days ago, all the pollsters admitted that there was an enthusiasm gap, which I think we will see return to pre-Dem Convention levels shortly.

There is simply no way, if both parties turn out their base, that you can lose the independents (about 20-25% of the total vote) and win. And there is absolutely no way you can lose the indies AND have a lower turnout factor than the Republicans, and win. It's just not mathematically possible.

I'll remind everyone that one reason we were so off in 2008 is that we were working on the 2004 Karl Rove principle that if the GOP base turned out, we'd win. Well, the base turned out, but 1/4 voted for Obama and ALL the indies voted for Obama. This time around Obama will lose 25% of the GOP who voted for him and 60% of the indies.

Whatever else all these goofy polls show, NONE has been able to reconcile these basic facts that the polls themselves report.

48 posted on 09/10/2012 4:59:45 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: smoothsailing

This poll is absolute BS. I don’t believe a word of it....any of it.

As Rush says...there isn’t a poll out there that means squat right now. This is PSYCH-OPS by the Communist News Network

CNN the most CORRUPT name in news.


49 posted on 09/10/2012 5:08:47 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (Democrats...the party of Slavery, Segregation, Sodomy, and Sedition)
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To: Strategerist
It's part of The Hill. Look at the link listings under blogs in the left hand column on the Homepage...http://thehill.com/
50 posted on 09/10/2012 5:12:56 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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