Posted on 09/10/2012 3:07:59 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 10, 2012
Christian Heinze
A new CNN poll of likely voters confirms a Barack Obama convention bounce, as he now leads Mitt Romney, 52%-46%.
But here's a very curious internal.
Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.
And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.
There's no doubt Obama got a convention bounce, but the independent number indicates a pretty severe oversample among Democrats in this poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at gop12.thehill.com ...
It sure seems that the polls are tweaked, so that it appears that Obama is more popular than he really is.
It’s likely Romney is slightly ahead, so CNN made up for the independent blowout by sampling an unrealistic amount of Demorats.
Yeah, right, like this poll has any inkling of what an unbiased sampling is or should be.
This is more like a “random walk” poll than anything that has been rigorously controlled as to sample size, internal tests of reliability, or ratios relating to real-life participation as voters.
Rush pointed out on his show today that the closer to election, the more nearly reflective polls become of the realities.
And we haven’t even had any debates yet.
Wow the race is over if I was a democrat or ward of the state I would be out celebrating with some Obama bucks and don’t even have to go vote.
Oversampling Rats??? Ya think????
Media sure is making a lot of the “Clinton hot flash” Dem sluts got from the convention.
But eventually it will get out that Clinton ain’t running, just that fumbling bozo, and they’ll go back into their doldrums.
If they continue to play this game, they are in for a rude awakening come November.
From the top of page 5:
BASED ON 441 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS — (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5% PTS.);
BASED ON 397 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS — (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS.)
............i also find it VERY hard to believe that 50% of the country believes Obama is best on issues of the economy vs. 49% for Romney...it’s very hard to trust these polls
IT'S TEA TIME!!!
Polling 110% Dems vs. GOP explains a lot.
How can Mitt be losing if he’s up by 14 among independents?
NOT POSSIBLE
Where was this poll taken, the upper west side of Manhattan? Across the bay from SF in Marin County? West Los Angeles? Give me a break CNN. Your poll is a fraud.
They are trying to convince folks that their fellow voters are deciding on Obama. People love to follow the trend.
If you assume 33% Independents with the reported 6% of them undecided, then the CNN figure would work out if they presumed a 39 to 28% Dem to Rep ratio. Since others are reporting that the Pubbies actually outnumber Dems, that represents at least an 11 percent overage.
If you assume an even number of Dems and Reps, then the number comes out to a 47 to 51% split in favor of Romney.
Obama says he wants to raise taxes on the rich to help pay to put more Americans back to work. Why is it hard to believe that won’t sound good to most of the country? Liberal policies usually sound good on the surface. It’s the Republicans’ job to explain the logic behind why they’re wrong and why conservative policies are better. But the Republicans didn’t spend much time doing that at their convention, and not very well or clearly when they tried.
If Mittens is really pulling numbers like 54-40% among independents, the Zero people are going to need a change of underwear.
Maybe they are seeing numbers like that. It might explain this avalanche of pro-0bama polls, as the Zero campaign calls in all its MSM favors, and asks for skewed polls in order to try to move that number away from Mitty and back towards Zero, as they try to spin a perception that Zero is winning when he's really getting clobbered.
Why does anyone pay attention to CNN or PPP polls. They are democrat polls. They mean nothing. The latest PPP has
the Kenyan leading 49-48% in North Carolina! Pigs will fly before this baby murdering, dope-smoking, queer-loving communist wins NC again. Ain’t gonna happen. These polls are worthless and all the media reports them like they are gospel, even Faux News, who are quickly turning into another CNN.
It's possible if you look at CNN's methodology. I laughed out loud the first time I heard how they do polls like this one. I prefer not to follow up with details, but I would dismiss this result completely.
Maybe we are seeing why FDR extended the depression with the same kind of policies
Well Romney does need to fight his way to the victory, with appearances by himself and his surrogates. I mean assertive appearances. It isn’t going to be handed to him because he says people need jobs.
I do think his crew is smart enough to realize that.
I agree..and I am also betting on that Obama did NOT get any convention bounce at all, or might have even lost a few points, so the media has to build him up again. There is no way that Romney can have a 14 point advantage with Independents and losing(Some on twitter are speculating Romney has at least a 20 point advantage with Indies) just you watch, a week before the election, all of a sudden the pollsters will say that Romney has a 5-6 point lead. They will have to do that to save face. A few days ago when all of these bogus polls came out I was freaking out too, but now I get it
Yep. Just the independents thing shows that this is not possible. That is all I need. Even THE HILL is dissing it, lol.
This might as well be an online poll
No way is this poll even close to reality.
But here's a very curious internal. Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time. And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.Thanks smoothsailing. Additional: the real story:
If all the polling put together is to be believed at all, Romney is down no more that 5% at this point. That is not a bad place to be. He just needs to start gaining and keep momentum increasing through October.
When I see a CNN poll where they report a poll sayiong that we did a sample 33% Independents, 33% Dems, 33% GOP and 1% minor parties and it gives an favorable number to Obama...then I’ll believe it... but the polling data is always in the D favor.. so it is BS!!
Great!
Get to work, Romney!
Win those debates and go all out to win it.
feh...
Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That’s a blowout number
Nothing else needs to be said.
I notice that Obama leads among men 48%-47% among likely voters, which is about the same as in 2008. I doubt this will be the case this time given IMO fewer white votes.
Obama gets 42% of the white vote, which is about what he got last time--43%. I just don't believe it.
And Romney gets 54% to 40% of the independent vote. Obama got 52% of Independents compared to 44% for McCain. Independents were 29% of the vote. Compare that to the 18% in the CNN poll.
I think Romney is leading by probably 20 percent amongst Independents. I dont think CNN meant to put that internal number in their polling make-up, that was probably meant to be kept out. THIS is why the media has been saying that Obama got a big bounce from his Convention, I think his numbers dropped from the Convention and this is the media’s way of trying to level the playing field with the enthusiasm. If Romney is leading THAT much with Indies he’s already won
I ran some numbers on this too.
The standard breakdown for a sample based on the Rasmussen research is R 37% D 33% I 30% (all rounded)
For CNN to achieve the result they did, they used an R 30% D 40% I 30% sample.
That’s D+7 and R-7 !!! A 14 point fudge factor.
Just make sure you take a few folks to the polls when you vote.
Oversampling dems will account for dem dirty tricks, e.g. voting by illegals and the dead. Not saying it’s right but it may be more accurate.
It’s difficult for any Republican candidate to win the debates when the networks give 0bama his questions in advance and wage a ‘gotcha’ war on the opposition. Look for Romney to get one detailed foreign affairs question after another, such as ‘Who’s the president of Namibia?’ while 0bama gets ‘What’s your favorite pizza topping?”, etc.
The source name is very misleading; it's not the well known "The Hill" it's some random blogger calling his site "The Hill."
At this point in time wouldn’t it make sense that all polls were of likely voters? They have to be doing these less reliable polls to prop up Obama’s numbers.
Romney +14 among Indies and Obama up by 6 at 52%. LOL, pollsters and journalists, like leftists in general, have a mutated shame gene.
Very curious...actually it does appear to be a site associated with a writer for “The Hill” and uses the “The Hill” logo but it’s not “The Hill” itself, though it links to “The Hill.”
lol. I was wondering why it was still offering coverage of the GOP nomination
I think he received a bump per Ras. That being said it will be fleeting and stink is still stink when it is all said and done
There is simply no way, if both parties turn out their base, that you can lose the independents (about 20-25% of the total vote) and win. And there is absolutely no way you can lose the indies AND have a lower turnout factor than the Republicans, and win. It's just not mathematically possible.
I'll remind everyone that one reason we were so off in 2008 is that we were working on the 2004 Karl Rove principle that if the GOP base turned out, we'd win. Well, the base turned out, but 1/4 voted for Obama and ALL the indies voted for Obama. This time around Obama will lose 25% of the GOP who voted for him and 60% of the indies.
Whatever else all these goofy polls show, NONE has been able to reconcile these basic facts that the polls themselves report.
This poll is absolute BS. I don’t believe a word of it....any of it.
As Rush says...there isn’t a poll out there that means squat right now. This is PSYCH-OPS by the Communist News Network
CNN the most CORRUPT name in news.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.