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Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll
examiner.com ^ | 9-10-2012 | Dean Chambers

Posted on 09/10/2012 8:49:12 PM PDT by reprobate

The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack...

(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cnn; obama; poll; sample
Where was this in the discussions today? Are we being had? Again! What about Rass, is he doing a little CYA.
1 posted on 09/10/2012 8:49:24 PM PDT by reprobate
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To: reprobate

This result looks about right. There is ZERO chance that the guy 14% ahead with independents would be behind by 6


2 posted on 09/10/2012 8:53:15 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: reprobate

Keep in mind it’s registered voters, not likely voters.


3 posted on 09/10/2012 8:54:05 PM PDT by BlessedBeGod
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To: reprobate
every poll IIRC had Romney ahead just a week and half ago...these polls are not rational.....they're not realistic IMO of course...and what do I know....

but I just sent in $100 bucks to Romney....

the time is NOW people....we either get this done or we don't...

Romney has more money and is better connected than McCain, he's in a better situation, he's a better candidate.....he can do this....

come on folks...unite and conquer!

4 posted on 09/10/2012 8:56:11 PM PDT by cherry
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To: reprobate

Ignore the polls and work to defeat 0bama as if that jug eared freak was 10 percent ahead, and Romney & Ryan were 15 percent behind. The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, and the 0bamunist Ministry of Information (aka the lamestream media) is going to toe the mark and walk the line per Axelrod & Company right up to Election Night, believe that. Those media whores have been bought and paid for by the White House.


5 posted on 09/10/2012 8:57:55 PM PDT by mkjessup (On Nov 6th, vote as if America's survival counted on getting rid of 0bama. Here's a clue: IT DOES!)
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To: reprobate

Looks like Drudge is pushing back against the libmedia push poll strategy, aka Operation Demoralize.

Some stat guy/gal could become real popular if s/he set up a blog specifically to re-skew bogus poll data.


6 posted on 09/10/2012 9:00:16 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: reprobate

While I strongly agree that the poll is skewed, I wouldn’t go so far as to say Romney is up significantly. Most reasonable polls over time have shown about a 4-point Dem edge. That means that the surveys based on a 10-point Dem edge are way off, but I’m skeptical that there’s an actual 1-point GOP edge.

Furthermore, extrapolating a small sample size 54-40 Romney lead among a handful of independents is questionable.

I’m not saying this to be a fly in the ointment. As my name and start date imply, I registered and started posting to debunk some of the Gore mumbo jumbo 12 years ago in Florida. The poll is definitely skewed. I just don’t think it’s as skewed as the Examiner thinks. My read is that it’s a 1-point Obama lead, which is totally margin of error.


7 posted on 09/10/2012 9:00:41 PM PDT by Numbers Guy
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To: reprobate
It took a while, but I do believe that I have figured out why the corrupt Obama administration wants to game the polls so badly.

It's not because a lead in the polls can energize voting, it is because (I suspect) that their CHEATING plans are so monstrous in scope and magnitude, that a bogus win will be easier to sell if the polls showed a (bogus, of course) lead.

It's (I suspect) planned cover for a Big Con.

.

8 posted on 09/10/2012 9:02:14 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: reprobate

It’s simple math, yet the pollsters refuse to budge. Take the mix of how people identify themselves, whether they voted in either of the last two elections, multiply by 80%. If independent, then apply the poll, only if they live in the 10 states that matter.

Sheesh.


9 posted on 09/10/2012 9:02:44 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: mkjessup

I agree, don’t pay any attention to that Commie psy-ops bullcrap, those polling guys are as whored-out as the rest of the MSM...they are no longer trying to quantify public opinion, but INFLUENCE public opinion!


10 posted on 09/10/2012 9:02:57 PM PDT by Frank_2001
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To: reprobate

According to the article there were 800+ voters polled and only 37 indies. Now that’s clearly skewed for Bombo but there’s no statistical way for the article’s author to take the Ras numbers on party self ID and apply them to this poll and come up with Romney by 8. You just don’t have enough responses from indies to make any kind of statistical guess. What can be said is as Allah said on HA that Gallup is forcing their respondees to choose D or R,OR the poll is completely unreliable.


11 posted on 09/10/2012 9:03:44 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: reprobate

I would probably skew it slightly just in case Ras is a bit too GOP-generous in the party ID, but I would still see a slight Romney lead, 2-3 points right now. I don’t hear many talk about supporting him really at all, including many former Dems. Only my die-hard Dem friends have expressed any enthusiasm at all.


12 posted on 09/10/2012 9:04:01 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: reprobate

I would probably skew it slightly just in case Ras is a bit too GOP-generous in the party ID, but I would still see a slight Romney lead, 2-3 points right now. I don’t hear many talk about supporting him really at all, including many former Dems. Only my die-hard Dem friends have expressed any enthusiasm at all.


13 posted on 09/10/2012 9:04:08 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Numbers Guy

I am a bit more generous giving it a 2 point Romney lead, but I could see a slight Obama lead of maybe 1 point at best. There just is not enthusiasm for him this time, but there is for Romney in comparison.

Not huge enthusiasm yet, and I think that is what keeps him back. I think that will change over the debates. He appears to be taking them seriously, already prepping etc. He did well during the primary debates.

Certainly reason to be concerned, but nothing to freak out about yet. Too much in life to worry about everything. That said, if by mid-October we see a growing Obama lead....that will be a time to have serious concerns.


14 posted on 09/10/2012 9:08:38 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Numbers Guy

Thanks for your observations FRiend, if you have a ping list, feel free to add me to it, I value your perspective on this.


15 posted on 09/10/2012 9:10:15 PM PDT by mkjessup (On Nov 6th, vote as if America's survival counted on getting rid of 0bama. Here's a clue: IT DOES!)
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To: mkjessup

bttt


16 posted on 09/10/2012 9:12:15 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Seaplaner
It's not because a lead in the polls can energize voting, it is because (I suspect) that their CHEATING plans are so monstrous in scope and magnitude, that a bogus win will be easier to sell if the polls showed a (bogus, of course) lead.
It's (I suspect) planned cover for a Big Con.


I suspect you're right. Good analytical thinking. It would be interesting to find out how much (if any) money has been exchanged between the White House and Diebold Inc.
17 posted on 09/10/2012 9:14:43 PM PDT by mkjessup (On Nov 6th, vote as if America's survival counted on getting rid of 0bama. Here's a clue: IT DOES!)
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To: Numbers Guy; reprobate
Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:

The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:

Demographics Republican Democrat Independent Poll Numbers
Romney 96% 3% 54% Romney 46%
Obama 2% 97% 40% Obama 52%
Neither/Other 2% 0% 4% Neither/Other 2%
No Opinion: 1% 0% 2% No Opinion: 1%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%


CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A).


The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709

Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.


Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers     Adjusted Numbers  
Romney 96.47% 2.51% 53.51% Romney 45.97% Romney   50.70% Romney
Obama 1.51% 97.49% 40.49% Obama 51.51% Obama   46.80% Obama
Neither/Other 1.51% 0.00% 3.95% Not Sure 1.71% Neither/Other   1.71% Neither/Other
No Opinion: 0.51% 0.00% 2.05% Do not know: 0.81% No Opinion:   0.79% No Opinion:
  100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%     100.0%  
                   
                   
        Results       New Weighting  
        (Weighting)          
    `              
Poll Information     Republican 28.70% Republican     35.00%  
CNN     Democrat 38.96% Democrat     35.00%  
9/7-9/2012     Independent 32.35% Independent     30.00%  
MOE 3.68%                  
709 LV       100.0%       100.0%  
page #21/48                  
                   
                   



Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [ +10.26%] Likely Voter oversampled poll. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.


dvwjr

18 posted on 09/10/2012 9:23:15 PM PDT by dvwjr
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To: Numbers Guy

Rasmussen has obama at 50, Romney at 45. CNN may be off, but probably not by a lot. It appears obama did get some bump after the DNC. Why? probably because we have a lot of morons in this country.


19 posted on 09/10/2012 9:26:51 PM PDT by Girlene
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To: cicero2k; Seaplaner
They do polls like they do unemployment statistics.
Only count the responders that will help you reach the desired numbers; if your candidate is still losing, just count more of his supporters until the results are right.

Seaplaner is right. Massive fraud is about to be unleashed.

20 posted on 09/10/2012 9:31:30 PM PDT by stormhill
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To: reprobate
Obammy’s threatening unfavorable pollsters. He paid off MSNBC with “stimulus.” NBC and the other DNC alphabets have a long reach in pollster purchase land. The GOP does not play hardball. The Dems do.
21 posted on 09/10/2012 9:35:16 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: rwfromkansas

but nothing to freak out about yet.

***

Correction, no reason to freak out, ever.


22 posted on 09/10/2012 9:55:57 PM PDT by ROTB (Live holy, forgive all & pray in Jesus' name. Trust He is willing & able & eager to ANSWER BIG!)
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To: mkjessup
Ignore the polls and work to defeat 0bama as if that jug eared freak was 10 percent ahead, and Romney & Ryan were 15 percent behind. The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, and the 0bamunist Ministry of Information (aka the lamestream media) is going to toe the mark and walk the line per Axelrod & Company right up to Election Night, believe that. Those media whores have been bought and paid for by the White House.

I beg to differ my good friend. Whores deliver a service for a price that is agreed on in advance by both parties that engage in the transaction of their own free will. Considering the repeat business it must be an agreeable transaction for both. Capitalism works!

Relative to the media they do it for free. Rumor has it that Obama buys the knee pads so it is not a negative cash flow for the media.

23 posted on 09/10/2012 10:02:38 PM PDT by cpdiii (Deckhand, Roughneck, Mud Man, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist. THE CONSTITUTION IS WORTH DYING FOR!)
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To: mkjessup

Amen to that.


24 posted on 09/10/2012 10:23:11 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: mkjessup

That’s right, folks. Get your butt up and away from the computer and knock on doors and we’ll win in a landslide. Or just post and moan.


25 posted on 09/10/2012 11:40:37 PM PDT by ebshumidors ( Marksmanship and YOUR heritage http://www.appleseedinfo.org)
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To: Girlene
Rasmussen has obama at 50, Romney at 45. CNN may be off, but probably not by a lot. It appears obama did get some bump after the DNC. Why? probably because we have a lot of morons in this country.

Learn to *think*.

National polls are *meaningless* unless they show a true wave election effect.

Why? Go back to the "electoral college is outdated, we need a national popular vote" lie spread by the Marxists in the Dem party.

In blue strongholds such as Illinois, New York, and California, the large number of urban centers (ghettos) means that Obama wins by a very large margin...in votes earned. But this does not mean anything for the number of electoral votes: as Floriduh 2000 shows us, if you win by 400 votes or 4,000,000 votes, you get the same number of EVs from a state.

But -- the flip side of this is -- if you have a large number of people supporting you, but most of them are in a few places -- that your support is actually *weaker* outside of the strongholds, since there are only so many supporters to go around.

So a national poll (especially one which overweights Democrats) may well make Obama look stronger than he is: but since a lot of his support is from places which are heavily Donkey already, it does NOT mean (but the pollster *does* intend for you to assume it means) that his support is at that level in all states, red, blue, and swing.

So to your point: if Obama's bump is in heavily blue areas (and I have seen reports that suggest it is) then the bump in the polls for him post-DNC convention is only good for breeding Donk complacency, or for propaganda.

To Cheers!

26 posted on 09/11/2012 3:36:03 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: GeronL

Many people that identify themselves as ‘independents’ are actually ‘disenfranchised’ conservatives who have left the left-leaning GOP...


27 posted on 09/11/2012 3:39:45 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Seaplaner
It's not because a lead in the polls can energize voting, it is because (I suspect) that their CHEATING plans are so monstrous in scope and magnitude, that a bogus win will be easier to sell if the polls showed a (bogus, of course) lead.

You are absolutely right...keep in mind some of our votes are being tallied by a foreign entity...

28 posted on 09/11/2012 3:42:27 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: reprobate
Campaigns spend millions of dollars for private (internal) polls. These polls are far more accurate as the candidates need to know where they truly stand, with no BS, and where they need to focus their resources.

If you want to know the state of a presidential campaign, look to where the campaign is spending their money and time. If Romney/Ryan spend a lot of time in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida over the next few weeks, that's a bad sign. If they are in Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire, that's a good sign. If they are in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Jersey, that's a fantastic sign.

29 posted on 09/11/2012 4:02:03 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76
Obama is spending an inordinate amount of time in IA. Almost all of his rally time is spent in front of college students. Ask yourself why.
30 posted on 09/11/2012 5:04:35 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen.)
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To: SamAdams76

“If you want to know the state of a presidential campaign, look to where the campaign is spending their money and time.”

That is a good indicator. I read that Buckwheat is making big ad buys in the state of Washington. That’s not a good sign for the rats.


31 posted on 09/11/2012 5:27:10 AM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: SamAdams76
Campaigns spend millions of dollars for private (internal) polls. These polls are far more accurate as the candidates need to know where they truly stand, with no BS, and where they need to focus their resources.

Well said.

32 posted on 09/11/2012 5:41:50 AM PDT by Hemingway's Ghost (Spirit of '75)
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To: BlessedBeGod
Keep in mind it’s registered voters, not likely voters.

Would someone clarify the distinction, please. Whenever I see/hear that missive, I always wonder if someone is trying to say that a registered voter is an unlikely voter until they declare themselves a likely voter. It seems like someone is saying that those in the registered category won't vote.

33 posted on 09/11/2012 5:49:00 AM PDT by Tonytitan
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To: reprobate
They weighted the Rats by over 10%. Based on the 2010 elections, Republicans have surpassed the Rats in party affiliation.
Polling is not a science, it's a simple technique. The actual split is 33% R, 32% D, 33% I and 2% Other. 100% Republicans will vote Republican and 100% Rats will vote for Rats. The Ind. will split for Romney 55% to 44%. Romney will win in a landslide and well over 300 EVs.
34 posted on 09/11/2012 6:11:02 AM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
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To: Girlene
Rasmussen is showing the poll this way because he doesn't want the rest of the Lame Stream Media claiming he's a Republican shill when in fact they are Obama ass kissers.
35 posted on 09/11/2012 6:14:09 AM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
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