Skip to comments.Flashback: Which presidential polls were most accurate in 2008?
Posted on 09/10/2012 9:18:48 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obamas strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obamas final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two Rasmussen and Pew were spot on.
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.chron.com ...
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
I think Rasmussen was #1 in the 2004 presidential election as well...
Notice who scored the lowest on that list.
How accurate a poll was in late October and early November is not that germane to the issue of what we should make of early September polls.
I guess it depends upon who you ask.
Thanks for posting. Is this the score for the final poll? I notice that a couple of these were way off until the final days of the election.
Its germane to what you might conclude from the agenda of various news operations.
Yes, I believe this was taken from final polling.
Possibly germane and I know your point is the old media is all in the bottom half of that list, but the issue to me is today is who was most accurate in mid-September in the past.
I'm actually shocked that Gallup is so low on the list... I've always thought Gallup's poll results were pretty accurate overall. Maybe it's just my imagination... ;-)
“How accurate a poll was in late October and early November is not that germane to the issue of what we should make of early September polls.”
Exactly, I would love to see July-Nov for each of the polls so we can see if what Rush is saying is true.
Well, here’s the problem nutmeg.
Average bias was +/- 2 over the sample of all the pollsters.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 in September.
Granted, these are not final polls, but Romney is rather rapidly running out of time to change the situation.
The state polls that I am working off of are not good news for Romney. Essentially Obama has 240 EVs locked up right now.
States Romney isn’t winning:
CA, WA, OR, MN, ME, MA, RI, VT, NY, HI, NJ, DE, MD, NM, PA, CT.
States where he is down 5 points or less:
NV, NH and FL.
CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, VA, NC, SC
Battleground EVs + FL, NH and NV = 135.
For Romney to win, he has to win of the remaining 135 EVs that are up for grabs. That’s 63.7 percent. Of those EVs, he needs 89 of them to win.
FL (+29), NC (+15), SC (+9), VA (+13), gives him 66. He still needs another 23 to win. OH isn’t enough.
Romney has to win one of Colorado, Wisconsin or Iowa in order to win this election.
He must also win FL, NC, SC, VA and OH.
This is why Romney isn’t winning this election.
Colorado - O+3.
Iowa - O+2.
North Carolina is a true tossup.
Virginia is O+5.
Ohio is O+5.
Romney is not going to win all 5 battleground states that lean Obama.
He might win 3, but 3 isn’t enough.
North Carolina is in no way shape or form a true toss-up.
Last 5 polls going back to 1st of August, going from the earliest to the latest poll.
It is the only state to exhibit this pattern - ergo it is a true tossup.
Rasmussen had Romney up 5, but that was August 1st. Things change. It wasn’t a true tossup before, but now it is.
NC a toss up? LOL no. Just no. It’s not.
NC is not a toss up but Wisconsin sure is.
According to the polls we have at present, yes, it’s a true tossup.
It’s also the most competitive of the battleground states for Romney. He’s worse off in all the other ones. This is very bad going into September.
“NC is not a toss up but Wisconsin sure is.”
The same pollsters showing O+2 in WI are showing NC to be a true tossup.
So either both are false or both are true.