Skip to comments.Flashback: Which presidential polls were most accurate in 2008?
Posted on 09/10/2012 9:18:48 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obamas strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obamas final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two Rasmussen and Pew were spot on.
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.chron.com ...
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
I think Rasmussen was #1 in the 2004 presidential election as well...
Notice who scored the lowest on that list.
How accurate a poll was in late October and early November is not that germane to the issue of what we should make of early September polls.
I guess it depends upon who you ask.
Thanks for posting. Is this the score for the final poll? I notice that a couple of these were way off until the final days of the election.
Its germane to what you might conclude from the agenda of various news operations.
Yes, I believe this was taken from final polling.
Possibly germane and I know your point is the old media is all in the bottom half of that list, but the issue to me is today is who was most accurate in mid-September in the past.
I'm actually shocked that Gallup is so low on the list... I've always thought Gallup's poll results were pretty accurate overall. Maybe it's just my imagination... ;-)
“How accurate a poll was in late October and early November is not that germane to the issue of what we should make of early September polls.”
Exactly, I would love to see July-Nov for each of the polls so we can see if what Rush is saying is true.
Well, here’s the problem nutmeg.
Average bias was +/- 2 over the sample of all the pollsters.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 in September.
Granted, these are not final polls, but Romney is rather rapidly running out of time to change the situation.
The state polls that I am working off of are not good news for Romney. Essentially Obama has 240 EVs locked up right now.
States Romney isn’t winning:
CA, WA, OR, MN, ME, MA, RI, VT, NY, HI, NJ, DE, MD, NM, PA, CT.
States where he is down 5 points or less:
NV, NH and FL.
CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, VA, NC, SC
Battleground EVs + FL, NH and NV = 135.
For Romney to win, he has to win of the remaining 135 EVs that are up for grabs. That’s 63.7 percent. Of those EVs, he needs 89 of them to win.
FL (+29), NC (+15), SC (+9), VA (+13), gives him 66. He still needs another 23 to win. OH isn’t enough.
Romney has to win one of Colorado, Wisconsin or Iowa in order to win this election.
He must also win FL, NC, SC, VA and OH.
This is why Romney isn’t winning this election.
Colorado - O+3.
Iowa - O+2.
North Carolina is a true tossup.
Virginia is O+5.
Ohio is O+5.
Romney is not going to win all 5 battleground states that lean Obama.
He might win 3, but 3 isn’t enough.
North Carolina is in no way shape or form a true toss-up.
Last 5 polls going back to 1st of August, going from the earliest to the latest poll.
It is the only state to exhibit this pattern - ergo it is a true tossup.
Rasmussen had Romney up 5, but that was August 1st. Things change. It wasn’t a true tossup before, but now it is.
NC a toss up? LOL no. Just no. It’s not.
NC is not a toss up but Wisconsin sure is.
According to the polls we have at present, yes, it’s a true tossup.
It’s also the most competitive of the battleground states for Romney. He’s worse off in all the other ones. This is very bad going into September.
“NC is not a toss up but Wisconsin sure is.”
The same pollsters showing O+2 in WI are showing NC to be a true tossup.
So either both are false or both are true.
BTW, I don’t know where you got those numbers but the Kenyan is not ahead in Florida either.
“BTW, I dont know where you got those numbers but the Kenyan is not ahead in Florida either.”
I agree. Looking at my data for the last 5 polls going back to August 14th I have two wins for Romney, 3 for Obama, and all of them within the MOE.
That makes Florida the other true tossup.
they will tell the race the final days baring either something big popping open after crest of poll time on last polls
or huge turnout difference from models..which might for once actually happen this time...in our favor even with pendejo Romney
that said...I am not too happy with the trending I am seeing
Romney is wrong if he thinks he can run like Queeg-Palin did and not go on the attack
going on the attack is all we got
the usual Democrat constituents will not change their minds because of the economy...they are motivated by something else entirely
blacks and most latinos and asian/orientals will vote for the guy they see as non white
most Jews and ironically Muslims too will vote for the guy they see as non Christian values sort (yes I know..magic drawers and all)
for Mitt to win he must motivate white folks to vote and vote big...like someone said he is polling 60% on whites...Reagan only polled 55%
hence I hope all you formerly open borders folks here(not u personally) are now happy...we tried to warn you
I think however that if Mitt gets a high white turnout and garners that 60% then he wins...and wins markedly
but don't be fooled...the browning of America is almost a fait accompli
and they ain't Irish you idiots...there is no parallel..they are as ingrained to vote against what they see as a white power structure of “haves” as blacks are almost...especially the newer arrivals..all we can do is get white conservatives to get to humping and chunk the birth control and dammit stay married and raise yer children...and maybe turn a few latinos
freepers hate polls that don't support their position but that doesn't mean polls are wrong..it means we are dwindling demographically or offering up a poor candidate or both
does anyone stop and think where we would be had Sarah or Newt or Rick gotten the nod?
i think they would at least attack Obama full bore and mean ..mean like Eastwood Unforgiven mean but I don't think they would ahve done any better with the minorities and they woulda sure given the progressive anti Christian media a big target
Romney can't do that...lacks the guts...but he will let his underlings like in Florida primary...he better remember that
This whole election is well within the MOE hence we should not get too upset about these polls right now. There has been massive oversampling of dems & undersampling of indepenents this week alone. I’m not saying Romney is leading as of this evening, but he’s well within striking distance.
Nor am I saying that things cannot change. I just think that rather than passing a blythe what me worry, that Romney has to make a serious course correction in his campaign if he wants to actually win this election.
The odds are stacked up against him, especially when states like PA and MI start getting nailed down. I don’t think Obama loses either, and that makes the math that much harder for Romney.
In the not too distant long-run you are right. The GOP will be overrun by massive third world immigration. There’s no changing that now. But I still suspect this election will tip over to Romny due to the economy. We shall see.
I never factored in MI or PA for Mitt. PA is always a tease for the GOP that never comes through in the end. I think R&R will pull in WI which will really change the map for the GOP.
“does anyone stop and think where we would be had Sarah or Newt or Rick gotten the nod?”
Rick was a hell of a fighter. Turned a nothing campaign and was written off prior to Iowa into the last man standing.
Had Newt dropped, he would have taken Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and would have taken it to the convention vs Mitt.
But, Newt stayed in, split the vote, Romney took advantage and he is now the nominee. Pity.
Thanks Newt! Will remember that well over the next 4 years of Obama.
“I never factored in MI or PA for Mitt. PA is always a tease for the GOP that never comes through in the end. I think R&R will pull in WI which will really change the map for the GOP.”
Still needs to hold Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida for Wisconsin to put him over.
Wisconsin gives him about an order of magnitude better chances of winning (before it was CO + NV/IA/NH), which made it 6 battlegrounds that he had to win.
I just don’t see it. If Romney were pulling away in VA, OH, FL and NC I could see people talking about Wisconsin, but he’s not. If you have too many tossups, even if you do well, some of them won’t break for you and you’ll still lose.
I hope I’m making sense.
I understand where you are coming from. I just think the election is too fluid as of right now to pin down just what direction it’s going to take. I do believe Obama got a real bounce from the convention....I also suspect that that bounce will fade as they often do over the next week. We are seeing signs of that bounce fading this evening according to 2 polls that I seen that showed Romney back within 2 points.
We shall see. I’d rather he get the wakeup call now rather than run the crap campaign McCain did for the last month or so.
If this motivates him to get off his butt and get working, then good. He still has time to fix it now.
I was shocked McCain did so poorly. I remember paying for enchiladas to sit in a bar all night after a long, long day of work, looking forward to the election. I thought all the polls 4 years ago were very, very wrong. When Indiana went Obama I realized that I was wrong.
Shook me up quite a bit, it did. Now, I’m much less skeptical towards the polling aggregate and my predictions are better. Figure they overestimate Obama’s strength by about 2.
Romney camp is reporting tonight that Obama is slowly withdrawing his TV money from NC. Once the bank crisis hit in the fall of 08 I knew McCain was finished. I bet this race breaks one way or the other after the first debate in October. Until then it will go up & down.
Well, those were strange times for sure. I will always remember that crisis in September of 2008 and Obama’s election, and the death of my father just a month later.
My world has never been the same since.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Romney can say he’ll do better but can he deliver?
Sorry about your dad. My take is that Romney will win a close race. The economy is terrible & in the end that’s going to matter more than either Obama or Mitt. People will just want these bad times to stop.
I know I sure do. :(
Peace and blessings sir. It has been a long and difficult year for me.
Same to you:) Let’s hope the American people see through Obama.....if not, I dread to think of the future.
We’re in the middle of a massive disinformation campaign, led by the rat pollsters and the Goebbel’s media, and you’ve swallowed it hook, line and sinker.
Since Buckwheat was elected, the rats have lost every major election except one. And don’t forget that all the pollsters had Walker losing Wisconsin in the recall. If I recall correctly, only PPP came close on that one.
In the 2010 election, not a single pollster predicted that patriots and conservatives would completely take over 26 states, electing more than 700 patriots to state legislatures.
Your entire analysis regurgitates rat propaganda.
Well stated, Sgt. Dave.