I'm actually shocked that Gallup is so low on the list... I've always thought Gallup's poll results were pretty accurate overall. Maybe it's just my imagination... ;-)
Well, here’s the problem nutmeg.
Average bias was +/- 2 over the sample of all the pollsters.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 in September.
Granted, these are not final polls, but Romney is rather rapidly running out of time to change the situation.
The state polls that I am working off of are not good news for Romney. Essentially Obama has 240 EVs locked up right now.
States Romney isn’t winning:
CA, WA, OR, MN, ME, MA, RI, VT, NY, HI, NJ, DE, MD, NM, PA, CT.
States where he is down 5 points or less:
NV, NH and FL.
CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, VA, NC, SC
Battleground EVs + FL, NH and NV = 135.
For Romney to win, he has to win of the remaining 135 EVs that are up for grabs. That’s 63.7 percent. Of those EVs, he needs 89 of them to win.
FL (+29), NC (+15), SC (+9), VA (+13), gives him 66. He still needs another 23 to win. OH isn’t enough.
Romney has to win one of Colorado, Wisconsin or Iowa in order to win this election.
He must also win FL, NC, SC, VA and OH.
This is why Romney isn’t winning this election.
Colorado - O+3.
Iowa - O+2.
North Carolina is a true tossup.
Virginia is O+5.
Ohio is O+5.
Romney is not going to win all 5 battleground states that lean Obama.
He might win 3, but 3 isn’t enough.