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To: nutmeg

Well, here’s the problem nutmeg.

Average bias was +/- 2 over the sample of all the pollsters.

Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 in September.

Granted, these are not final polls, but Romney is rather rapidly running out of time to change the situation.

The state polls that I am working off of are not good news for Romney. Essentially Obama has 240 EVs locked up right now.

States Romney isn’t winning:

CA, WA, OR, MN, ME, MA, RI, VT, NY, HI, NJ, DE, MD, NM, PA, CT.

States where he is down 5 points or less:

NV, NH and FL.

Battleground states:

CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, VA, NC, SC

Battleground EVs + FL, NH and NV = 135.

Obama: 221
Romney: 182

For Romney to win, he has to win of the remaining 135 EVs that are up for grabs. That’s 63.7 percent. Of those EVs, he needs 89 of them to win.

FL (+29), NC (+15), SC (+9), VA (+13), gives him 66. He still needs another 23 to win. OH isn’t enough.

Romney has to win one of Colorado, Wisconsin or Iowa in order to win this election.

He must also win FL, NC, SC, VA and OH.

This is why Romney isn’t winning this election.

Colorado - O+3.
Iowa - O+2.
Wisconsin- O+2.

North Carolina is a true tossup.

Virginia is O+5.
Ohio is O+5.

Romney is not going to win all 5 battleground states that lean Obama.

He might win 3, but 3 isn’t enough.


14 posted on 09/10/2012 11:14:40 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge

North Carolina is in no way shape or form a true toss-up.


15 posted on 09/10/2012 11:28:21 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: JCBreckenridge

NC a toss up? LOL no. Just no. It’s not.


17 posted on 09/10/2012 11:35:39 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: JCBreckenridge

We’re in the middle of a massive disinformation campaign, led by the rat pollsters and the Goebbel’s media, and you’ve swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

Since Buckwheat was elected, the rats have lost every major election except one. And don’t forget that all the pollsters had Walker losing Wisconsin in the recall. If I recall correctly, only PPP came close on that one.

In the 2010 election, not a single pollster predicted that patriots and conservatives would completely take over 26 states, electing more than 700 patriots to state legislatures.

Your entire analysis regurgitates rat propaganda.


38 posted on 09/11/2012 5:13:38 AM PDT by sergeantdave
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