Skip to comments.Mitt Romney would lead by eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll
Posted on 09/10/2012 10:07:37 PM PDT by oldernittany
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.
Among the Democrats survey, 97 percent favored Obama while three percent support Romney. The Republicans surveys chose Romney by a 96 percent to two percent margin. Those margins display a high degree of party loyalty in each party for its candidate, which is plausible in a campaign like this one where both sides are focusing heavily on boosting turnout among their base. Independents, who are massively under-sampled in this survey, support Romney by a 54 percent to 40 percent margin.
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
I’ve heard more about doctored polls in this election cycle than any other in the past.
Clearly, they are changing the polls numbers, to make it seem that Obama is more popular than he really is.
Too bad that in my area can’t even get a yard sign for Mitt or at least it is very difficult. Too bad, may be some one who works for Mitt will read this. Went to his web site and that one is some what goofy too.
If a poll tells me that Obama is winning it's because the MSM wants to make me think there is no hope for Romney and discourage me from going to the polls.
If a poll tells me that Romney is winning it's because the MSM wants to make me overconfident and feel there's no need for me to go to the polls
If a poll shows Romney and Obama neck-and-neck it's just because they want to gin up the horse race to sell more ad space.
Do a google search on ‘mitt romney for president yard sign ‘. Lots of hits.
Now that the conventions are over, there’s no point in recognizing any poll that is still sampling “adults” or “registered voters”. Likely voters is the only sample that matters now.
And national numbers are useless too. State polls of likely voters are what is relevant.
All the rest of the polls are purely for propaganda.
You must realize that at the end Aug. Republicans outnumbered Democrats or those who are registered 37.5% to 33.3% with 22% independents!!
Polls lie. All the time.
My head is swimming with all these poll numbers... ugh
They hope if they say the polls are true then it will change the votes...
They try to make it a horse race for ratings too.
If they reported the truth that Romney was ahead, he would stay in the lead comfortably and people would tune out.
Bob Beckle said on Hannity that “Romney will lose it”. I’m going to love watching his fat face melt when he has to say “President Romney” through gritted teeth. Alan Colmes too. He’s my least favorite liberal after Obama now. The man looks like a biology teacher/serial rapist.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a few are cooked to keep the rcp average in 0bama’s favor.
Remember..Axelrod and Gallup. If Obama, Axelrod and Holder would put pressure on Gallup, you can bet the other Polling companies have been contacted too.
I am afraid we aren’t going to be able to trust the polls this year...
I heard they oversample Democrats. Even FoxNews said they do that.
DemRATs have to fake as large a lead as possible to be able to charge election fraud after comrade obama loses.
Bob Beckel also said that Scott Walker would “Lose in a landslide” and get recalled..good ol drunk Bob, always Mr. Reliable
It is always safer for your reputation when in the eye of the media to give the left the benefit of the doubt. So the pollsters are sticking to older models where democrat voters used to outnumber republican voters as simply the safer road to tread.
Actually whether obama had a solid lead over Romney or not, I think he would be openly bothered if a well known rapper did not seem to love him. He is narcistic by nature.
Obama and his lap dogs in the press are trying to cook the polls. All Romney’s publicists need to do is say: “Our polls show that Obama is losing the support of voters; Obama’s ‘dislikability’ is increasing, and that people want a change.”
That’s all they need to say. No need anymore to back things up with facts. Everything is illusion and perception. We need to use the same weapons as the left - make it up as you go along.
Does anyone have any historical data to show which companies have been most accurate? I know that polls this early are still too early to make large judgements but what about polls in the last week before an election? Who gets it right?
“Willard is winning this thing.”
I find it hard to believe Obama can repeat ‘08.
Obama is going to fail like Carter. That is not to say we are getting a Reagan.
WaPo: "The survey shows that the race remains close among likely voters, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 48 percent, virtually unchanged from a poll taken just before the conventions."
Pretty nice piece of reverse engineering a poll.
—— I don’t trust any polls ——
Reporting here from occupied Massachusetts...
There is no enthusiasm for Obama. Four years ago, on my one hour commute toward Boston, every tenth car had an Odumbo sticker. Now I see one or two a day. Same number of Romney stickers. But keep in mind that Romney supporters have a much greater reason to fear vandalism.
With Brown opening a bigger lead on Fauxahontas, an upset is now thinkable.
But if they lie, they are killing their own “marketing brand” when the results are finally in. I’m surprised the ‘big biys’ in thus game are screwing around with their credibility that they are going to have to SELL down the line.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.