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Bush's grim poll numbers
Slate ^ | August 3, 2004 | William Saletan

Posted on 09/10/2012 10:17:43 PM PDT by Arthurio

-snip-

2. Trial heats. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry 48-46 among registered voters in the ABC poll. After the convention, Kerry leads 50-44. In the CBS poll, Kerry turned a 45-42 lead into a 48-43 lead. The CNN/USA poll goes the other way, boosting Bush from a 47-43 deficit to a 48-47 lead. That's counterintuitive, given the pro-Kerry media coverage around the convention. It doesn't square with the CBS or ABC polls. Nor does it square with an American Research Group poll, which bumps Kerry from a 47-44 lead to a 49-45 lead, or a Newsweek poll—taken on the last night of the convention and the night afterward—which bumps Kerry from 47-44 to 49-42. So my guess is that the CNN poll is off the mark.

Look at the numbers for Kerry in these trial heats: 50, 48, 49, 49. Even in the CNN poll, he's got 47. Kerry is that close to making a Bush victory mathematically impossible. And look at Bush's numbers: 44, 43, 45, 42. Even the 48 percent for Bush in the CNN poll is too low, given how few undecided voters show up for the incumbent on Election Day.

-snip-

Four years ago, based on numbers less grim than these, I said Bush was toast. Gore had passed Bush, and I thought the numbers couldn't turn around. I was wrong. They could, and they did, and they could again. But this time, Bush is the incumbent. It's hard to imagine what he can say from here on out that's going to change people's minds about him. And it's hard to imagine what he can say about Kerry that he hasn't already said in scores of millions of dollars worth of ads. At the very least, it's Kerry's race to lose.

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


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1 posted on 09/10/2012 10:17:48 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Bush must be down near zero?


2 posted on 09/10/2012 10:26:46 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Arthurio

What are we supposed to conclude from this? Kerry was doing much better at this point that Romney is now, but Kerry still lost by a significant margin. (But pretty close in the EC). What would Romney have to do that Kerry didn’t do?


3 posted on 09/10/2012 10:30:33 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Bill Saletan - seer!


4 posted on 09/10/2012 10:33:34 PM PDT by Wally_Kalbacken
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To: nickcarraway

You are to conclude that polls are 1) often wrong and 2) just a snapshot in time.

This time 8 years ago, Bush had an 8 point lead over Kerry following the GOP convention. Bush won by only 2.5. Put in that perspective, 0’s current lead is much more easily surmountable.


5 posted on 09/10/2012 10:35:58 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio
It's hard to tell what these numbers mean, but you would think Obama would be doing worse.

The bottom line is Dukakis and Kerry failed. Is Romney doing anything to improve the results of his predecessors?

6 posted on 09/10/2012 10:41:20 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Stay tuned.


7 posted on 09/10/2012 10:42:44 PM PDT by Arthurio
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: nickcarraway

” you would think Obama would be doing worse.”

I certainly do. How the hell is Obama ahead, I can’t find but a handful of people that even like him. These numbers can’t be right.


9 posted on 09/10/2012 11:32:13 PM PDT by yank in the UK ( A liberal mocking Christianity. I asked "why don't you mock Islam?" he replied "Muslims are violent)
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To: Arthurio

As has been said many times on this forum, the only polls that count, are the ones on election day! WE, THE PEOPLE, must rise up and get this failure out of our House!


10 posted on 09/11/2012 3:13:31 AM PDT by Bushbacker1 (I miss President Bush! 2012 - The End Of An Error! (Oathkeeper))
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To: Arthurio

my prediction: vote fraud in Ohio gives the election to Obama. The pubbies initially protest, then walk away meekly with their tail between their legs after the mediawhores accuse them of being racists who just want to get a (half) black man out of the WH.


11 posted on 09/11/2012 4:34:58 AM PDT by wny
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To: wny

That sounds about right.


12 posted on 09/11/2012 4:51:58 AM PDT by Terry Mross (2016 THE MOVIE....scarier than any zombie movie.)
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