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Romney Email: STATE OF THE RACE
Email ^ | 9/10/2012 | Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster

Posted on 09/11/2012 12:29:43 AM PDT by sf4dubya

Rec'd the following email today from the Romney campaign.

MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster

RE: State of the Race

DATE: September 10, 2012

Don't get too worked up about the latest polling.  While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly.  The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.  

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed.  But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.

Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The truth is that some of President Obama's allies are claiming victory, but others are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves.  This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama Administration official saying, "It's certainly not what I would call the position we wanted to be in at this point in the race...He's going to have to make the case that we wouldn't even be at 8 percent if it weren't for him."

Consider the following points:

The Obama Economy: The stakes are very high in this election, and voters understand the future of our country is on the line.  This may be lost on those living within the hyper-political world in and around the Beltway, but it is not lost in communities in battleground states.  In short, the Romney-Ryan campaign understands Americans struggling in the Obama economy will determine the outcome of the race, and once the preponderance of information about the President's failed policies - combined with Mitt Romney's vision to strengthen the middle class - are communicated, our nation will move in a different direction.

All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further.  In eight states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.

Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted.  Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there.  And this tightening is not an anomaly.  Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively.  In both states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama's lead at only seven points in each of these states.

In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal.  In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign's television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there.  The Obama campaign's North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.

Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980.  In that race, the voters made their decision based on the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome.  On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.

Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day.  Anyone asserting a "one-size-fits-all-campaign" effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin.

New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources, and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real advantage.  In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more than $111 million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more than $100 million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the final two months.

Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC's most recent polling shows that 62% of Republicans are "extremely" or "very" excited about this election, while only 56% of Democrats report being "extremely" or "very" excited.  This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day.  For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. (2.72 million in 2012 through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008.)

Romney's Ground Game: During last weekend's "Super Saturday," we crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold.  Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign.  More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week.  And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states.  For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008.  This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State.  And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008.  And the list goes on and on.

Mitt Romney will be the next President.  The outcome of this race will ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he wants to take the country.  These advantages are being fueled by the commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation.  In short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin-of-error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on November 6.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012; president; presidentromney; romney; romneyryan; romneyryan2012; ryan
Received this today; if someone else on Romney's email list can confirm they received it as well (check your spam folder), would appreciate it.

One thing I noticed from this email was that it didn't include a typical campaign donation beg at the end. But here is some ammo if you need it.

Please discuss.

1 posted on 09/11/2012 12:29:57 AM PDT by sf4dubya
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To: sf4dubya

“Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State. And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008.”


Good deal! Encouraging to hear.


2 posted on 09/11/2012 1:09:23 AM PDT by tsowellfan ("Real leaders don't follow polls. Real leaders change polls")
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To: sf4dubya
Romney produced about 19 cookie cutter ads for different sates with the same beginning. But I see a problem with the beginning. The question should not be "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" That misses the point. Maybe Bush or structural issues are to blame. The question should be: do we want to go into a deep leftist abyss? My rcp comment:
Rush: “What’s changed since 2010? [When we had sweeping R victories.] Everything has gotten worse!” Not really. Unemployment was 10.3%. Now it’s 8.1%. Plus, outrage about Obamacare, though still acute, has faded somewhat. And back then we were in the middle of the furor over the Ground Zero Mosque which O favored. Close to 70% of voters agreed with us, yet a parade of Dems said that the mosque was the right thing to do.

So what does Romney need to do now? To counter a hazy feeling that Mitt imparts, this election must be a choice, a sharp one… between the left and the right. Over O’s term the voters have become increasingly more conservative. Capitalize on this!

The speeches by Ann R & Mitt showed the problem in trying to rely on character to make this sale. Get ISSUES to rise again to the fore… get a vigorous debate going between the left and the right, so, frankly, Mitt’s irritating aspect, and the notion that he’s an opportunist that won’t take stands, is eclipsed in importance by these issues.

No more “I will provide 200,000 more jobs for Colorado” type pablum commercials with the soft background music. Romney must jar the voter, loud dissonant music, and stir fear of disaster. Brainstorm some ideas that will take this fear-raising dissonant approach.


3 posted on 09/11/2012 1:26:14 AM PDT by Hokestuk
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To: sf4dubya
MEMO TO ROMNEY AND AIDES:

Beat the living crap out of the Obama Campaign to the extent from this day forward until November, unmercilessly, if not more so, campaign behavior which you already engaged in scorched-earth mode against CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS ONE AFTER ANOTHER IN THE GOP PRIMARIES WITHOUT MERCY, often violating Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment and doing everything possible to run the into them one-by-one into the primary ditch so you could have the privilege of holding the GOP crown at the end of the contest.

Don't pull your punches now and pull another John McCain and be a nice guy and not level with the American People a) the true extent Obama is a socialist and b) what is truly at stake for our nation. Or unfortunately, otherwise, the only logical conclusion one can come to is that you sir will be as full of RINO shit as we suspected you to be way back with the GOP primaries began and nearly 95% of Free Repubic was arrayed against you and in favor of a variety of Conservative Candidates to take Obama out as our standard bearer.

Don't piss down our Tea Party/Conservative backs and tell us it is raining, Mitt. This is your last chance (and ours) literally, to SAVE THE REPUBLIC.


4 posted on 09/11/2012 1:58:25 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (Donate, & walk precincts, not for "Parties", but for individual, principled "Candidates" (& for FR)
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To: sf4dubya

Winning campaigns do not send out this kind of stuff. He is getting crushed on messaging.


5 posted on 09/11/2012 2:16:36 AM PDT by chopperjc
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To: sf4dubya

Well, based on the MSM reporting I was expecting a concession email...

According to the MSM the race is over...

Obama won...


6 posted on 09/11/2012 2:49:50 AM PDT by Popman (In a place you only dream of Where your soul is always free)
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To: Hokestuk
Rush: “What’s changed since 2010? [When we had sweeping R victories.] Everything has gotten worse!” Not really. Unemployment was 10.3%. Now it’s 8.1%.

Rush is drinking the old Obama-brand Kool-Aid here, rather than telling it like it is.

That 2.2 drop in unemployment is largely due to people LEAVING THE WORKFORCE rather than finding jobs. How does people giving up on finding work and deciding it isn't worth it to keep trying constitute things getting better?!?
7 posted on 09/11/2012 3:09:24 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: chopperjc
Winning campaigns do not send out this kind of stuff. He is getting crushed on messaging.

Nice try, troll boy.

The Dems are trying a cross between a "Tet offensive" propaganda blitz and a "Potemkin Village" candidate.

Winning campaigns do not institute Chicago-style /North Korean style intimidation of polling firms to suppress bad news for their campaign, as Obaama did with the Gallup organization via the Dept. of (In)justice.

Cheers!

8 posted on 09/11/2012 3:38:13 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: chopperjc

“He is getting crushed on messaging.”

He had little to say beyond “Me too, but not as much”.

The results follow.


9 posted on 09/11/2012 3:41:37 AM PDT by Psalm 144 (Where would Christianity be if the early believers put their hopes and trust in the Roman empire?)
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To: chopperjc

Obama only chance of winning is to keep conservatives from voting. That is why you see the messaging.


10 posted on 09/11/2012 3:56:39 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: tsowellfan

“Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign.

When did he drop out? This sentence makes zero sense since voters kicked him to the curb during the primary. He snuck through this round but bragging that he has knocked on more doors then he did in 2008 is not impressive.


11 posted on 09/11/2012 3:58:00 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: chopperjc

Nope. This email is to dispel people like you who didn’t even post a single neutral post on FR for past several months. Most of your posts, if not all, are to demoralize Romney’s supporters. Either you’re one of the sour grapes whose candidate lost to Romney or you work to help Obama, the outcome and the intent are the same.


12 posted on 09/11/2012 3:58:25 AM PDT by paudio (Post-racial society: When we can legitimately hire and fire a Black man without feeling guilty.)
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To: grey_whiskers

grey-whiskers,
Where have you been? I haven’t seen you in a long time. Hope all is going well. I certainly believe this is the worst election in our lifetime. We have the worst two candidates in history. Whoever wins, we lose and that is the bottom line.
Anyway best to you.
Bob


13 posted on 09/11/2012 4:00:16 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: chopperjc

“Winning campaigns do not send out this kind of stuff. He is getting crushed on messaging.”

Yep, whenever a campaign counters lies and disinformation, that means they’re losing.

Looks like DU is scraping the bottom of the bridge for 30 IQ trolls.


14 posted on 09/11/2012 4:01:02 AM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: sf4dubya
romney either mans up and kicks the crap out of the commie kenyan... he had better get down and dirty and tell the unvarnished truth about obama in NO UNCERTAIN TERMS... or he will lose this election just like mccain did.

LLS

15 posted on 09/11/2012 4:24:02 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: LibLieSlayer

Exactly. So far, Candidate Milquetoast is handing the presidency to Hussein.

One of his colleagues of 30 years said that Mitt is a fighter, and he’ll do what he has to do to get what he wants. And I believed him, considering that he annihilated Sarah and Newt. But I don’t see it happening now. Waiting...


16 posted on 09/11/2012 4:31:03 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: sf4dubya

I got both the emails above.
Just one thing: Barack Hussein Obama is not a “nice guy” with policies which didn’t work. I believe his policies have provided for him exactly what he planned ala a large Government-dependant class, and a strong central Government to control every aspect of people’s daily lives.
It is tyranical, evil, and antithetical to the Republic our founding Fathers passed on to us. Economic collapse will follow an Obama re-election. For these and many other equally as urgent reasons, Mr. Romney must engage the battle each and every day, with “shock and awe” vigor. Anything less will finish our Republic, and replace it with a permanent ruling class.


17 posted on 09/11/2012 4:43:19 AM PDT by swamprebel (a Constitution once changed from Freedom, can never be restored.)
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To: chopperjc

Winning campaigns wouldn’t ask people to give up their wedding gifts in leiu of campaign donations


18 posted on 09/11/2012 5:35:10 AM PDT by aheckle
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To: napscoordinator

FReepmail.


19 posted on 09/11/2012 2:39:52 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: sf4dubya

Romney better get off his ass and start nailing Obama on his horrible foreign policy, with the attacks in Egypt and Libya.


20 posted on 09/11/2012 2:41:09 PM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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