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Fear Not the Obama Bounce
National Review ^ | 09/11/2012 | The Editors

Posted on 09/11/2012 7:02:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Conservatives may have this objection or that when they see a poll with Obama in the lead: They oversampled Democrats! They’re not screening for likely voters! Yet the general picture they are giving of the race seems accurate enough: The president got a bounce from his convention, and a tight race with a slight lead for him has become a tight race with a slightly bigger lead.

The Obama campaign has long been invested in the idea that his reelection is inevitable, and has spun much of a political press happy to agree. (By the way, shouldn’t Democratic press aides be paid at a discount?) So far this effort has not produced any panic or demoralization among conservatives, and we don’t think it will. This magazine believes in preemption, though, so let’s make the case for a measured confidence.

President Obama is running for reelection with an unemployment rate that has not carried an incumbent to victory since the Great Depression. His major policy initiatives — the stimulus bill, the health-care legislation — are so unpopular that he barely mentioned them in his own convention address. The public sees him as well to its left. The opposition has achieved rough financial parity. In key swing states, the president remains below 50 percent — sometimes well below. He has no plan to make his second term a happier one for the country than the first. And Rasmussen shows a bigger national than swing-state bounce for the president; if this is any indication, his bounce is disproportionately happening outside swing states: He has probably made blue states bluer.

The map is harder for the Republicans than the Democrats — but it also presents opportunities. The Democrats start with more large states. They won so big last time that Romney will have to take back a lot of ground to succeed. Romney is likely to regain the lead soon in North Carolina. Florida now seems to tilt at least slightly Republican: That is, in a competitive national election, all else equal, it will go GOP. Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire all seem to be in play. There are several paths to 270.

The Democrats, it seems to us, made better use of their convention than the Republicans made of theirs. The Republican message, especially in the most-watched addresses, seemed less coordinated, deliberate, and focused. Republicans spent too much time explaining what a nice guy Romney is and how happy he is about female empowerment, and not enough time explaining how he would improve the national condition.

Both party coalitions are strong. In the absence of shocks, presidential races will be tight. The Democratic base vote in presidential elections has been growing for nearly three decades. Obama has the benefit of incumbency — and it is a benefit, even in trying (but non-disastrous) times — and of a public that still has unhappy memories of the Bush administration.

Romney is nonetheless in the hunt, and he may even enjoy the great advantage, in politics as in life, of being underestimated.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bounce; election; obama

1 posted on 09/11/2012 7:03:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

“They oversampled Democrats!”

True and it’s typical.

Also, no one mentions the ABSOLUTE fact that Conservatives are the voters LEAST likely to DO surveys or to COMPLETE surveys once they begin.

THAT is the deal breaker when you consider the merit of ANY survey.

They’re all BS!


2 posted on 09/11/2012 7:06:51 AM PDT by SMARTY ("The man who has no inner-life is a slave to his surroundings. "Henri Frederic Amiel)
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To: SeekAndFind
This gives me hope .... that all is not as the LSM would have you believe (underline emphasis is mine):

Harry C. Alford, president and CEO of the National Black Chamber of Commerce, which represents nearly two million black businessmen in the United States, said the following:

"When Obama became president we were all happy about the symbolism - America's first black president. We really didn't care about his position and views on anything. We just wanted a black president no matter what. We should have been more careful, as his views on small business, especially black business, are counter to ours. His view of business is that it should be a few major corporations which are totally unionized and working with the government, which should also be massive and reaching every level of American society. Thus his first Executive Order was the reinstatement of Project Labor Agreements in government contracting. PLAs give labor unions an exclusive option in construction jobs - all participating firms must use union labor or, at least, pay union wages and abide by union rules. This activity, in effect, discriminates against blacks, Hispanics, and women per se, as trade unions deliberately under employ them. President George W. Bush eliminated PLAs from federal contracting and his main reason was 'unions discriminate against small business, women and minorities.' So here we were with the first black president who deliberately discriminates against small business, women and minorities. How ironic!"

3 posted on 09/11/2012 7:09:01 AM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: SeekAndFind

“The Obama campaign has long been invested in the idea that his reelection is inevitable, and has spun much of a political press happy to agree.”

Exactly.


4 posted on 09/11/2012 7:10:20 AM PDT by TEXOKIE (Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little. EdmondBurke)
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To: SMARTY

I’ve had pollsters HANG UP ON ME.

I asked “is this a push poll?” and then “click-hmmmm”.


5 posted on 09/11/2012 7:12:49 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: SeekAndFind

It was a disaster of a convention: from the fact Obama had to find a smaller place to speak in fear of empty seating (using the threat of bad weather was a joke because there was no rain), to the booing of God and Israel when re-instated to the platform, to the embarassing Jennifer Granholm speech, to Biden’s gaffe ridden speech, to Sandra Fluke addressing a “war on women” when rapist and sexual harasser Bill Clinton was the next speaker...HOW COULD OBAMA HAVE GOTTEN A BOUNCE? It was by all means, except for Clinton’s speech, a complete disaster.


6 posted on 09/11/2012 7:16:22 AM PDT by RochesterNYconservative (ROMNEY/RYAN 20121)
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To: MrB

Right, and knowing that we have to understand that ALL survey data is compromised from the giddy-up!


7 posted on 09/11/2012 7:18:32 AM PDT by SMARTY ("The man who has no inner-life is a slave to his surroundings. "Henri Frederic Amiel)
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To: SeekAndFind
I agree with Larry Sabbato when he says that this will be a base turnout election. The country is polarized. There are not many votes to be had from undecided voters. I believe the conservative base is both larger and more motivated than the liberal base. Romney will win. The Pubbies will take Senate seats in Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Connecticut, and they will lose a Senate seat in Maine. They will therefore control both houses of Congress and the White House.

They had better adopt a more conservative agenda than they did the last time they had such power in 2000 if they want to survive as a party. And I don't want to hear any nonsense about the need for compromise because they do not have 60 Senate seats. They should put everything important in budget bills that are subject to reconciliation and limit debate in the Senate. the budget is after all one of the two defining issues of the election.

8 posted on 09/11/2012 7:21:32 AM PDT by p. henry
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To: SeekAndFind

The only bounce I see is the one he will make from Washington to Hawaii with no skips


9 posted on 09/11/2012 7:22:08 AM PDT by Clay+Iron_Times (Psalms 118:9)
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To: RochesterNYconservative

He received a bounce because the speakers energized the Democrat base. You found the convention to be repellant. The leftist base loved it. Therefore more of them became “likely” voters - temporarily. That is how poalarized we are. With time, the glow will fade and many of them will cease to be likely voters. The conservative base has been energized since Obamacare passed. They will stay the course. Let not your heart be troubled.


10 posted on 09/11/2012 7:28:05 AM PDT by p. henry
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To: Clay+Iron_Times

RE: The only bounce I see is the one he will make from Washington to Hawaii with no skips

He actually prefers Chicago if you think about it....


11 posted on 09/11/2012 7:31:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

My optimism now is based primarily on the results of the 2010 elections.


12 posted on 09/11/2012 7:33:11 AM PDT by cymbeline
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To: MrB

I take some solace in the fact that a young guy I know, product of a liberal university education and frequent defender of Obama, looked at me yesterday and said “Dude, 2 1/2 years out of school with no prospects of a real job is enough”.


13 posted on 09/11/2012 7:36:44 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: cymbeline

RE: My optimism now is based primarily on the results of the 2010 elections.

Yes, I’ve been thinking along the same lines...

2010 was mainly about Obamacare... has Obamacare been repealed? NO.

2010 was also about jobs, the economy and the national debt... have the numbers improved? No.

It remains to be seen whether the voters are going to blame the GOP for the latter more or the Demos more.

Also — 2010 was about an ENERGIZED TEA PARTY.

Are they just as energized after 2 years? WE shall see...


14 posted on 09/11/2012 7:39:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Carter had a 4 point lead over Reagan...
Mondale had an 18 point lead over Reagan...
Dukakis had a 17 point lead over Bush I...
Gore had an 18 point lead over Bush II...
Kerry too had an 18 point lead over Bush II...

Now Obozo has a paper thin ‘lead’... Among mostly Democrats surveyed....

It looks like the left-wing media is up to its old tricks again!

I smell a landslide coming, followed by sore-loser, Obozo Riots.


15 posted on 09/11/2012 7:40:08 AM PDT by Bon mots (When seconds count, the police are just minutes away...)
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To: Bon mots

That is a fear many of my friends envision should Romney win...apocalyptic scenes in Watts, Detroit, South Central LA, etc. It is going to be a lot of white on black crime, etc. Many people fear a Romney win may lead to a crime wave.


16 posted on 09/11/2012 8:38:11 AM PDT by RochesterNYconservative (ROMNEY/RYAN 20121)
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To: RochesterNYconservative
That is a fear many of my friends envision should Romney win...apocalyptic scenes in Watts, Detroit, South Central LA, etc. It is going to be a lot of white on black crime, etc. Many people fear a Romney win may lead to a crime wave.

I think this is a legitimate concern. If Obama loses, the cries of "this is for Trayvon" will be replaced with "this is for Obama."

17 posted on 09/11/2012 8:41:20 AM PDT by GreenHornet
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To: GreenHornet

Come on even the D fanatics know that the “angry blacks” shtick does not engender much appeal beyond the absolutely craziest leftist.


18 posted on 09/11/2012 9:00:45 AM PDT by junta ("Peace is a racket", testimony from crime boss Barrack Hussein Obama.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The other thing no one is pointing out 0bama is in the midst of a “Rally to the Flag” bounce any President gets during the week of 09-11


19 posted on 09/11/2012 9:18:36 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: SeekAndFind

I truly do NOT believe there ever WAS a bounce.

I believe he is WAYYYY down in the polls and as usual, the MSM lies and lies and lies.


20 posted on 09/11/2012 9:22:06 AM PDT by a real Sheila (RYAN/romney 2012)
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To: RochesterNYconservative
"It is going to be a lot of white on black crime, etc."

What? Most white people don't even know where Watts is...

21 posted on 09/11/2012 9:45:21 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (Heh, noobs...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama’s poll numbers are like his job numbers fake made up,not real,spin.


22 posted on 09/11/2012 9:48:16 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: nutmeg

bookmark


23 posted on 09/11/2012 9:52:25 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: "ABO"/Ryan 2012)
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To: RochesterNYconservative; Bon mots; GreenHornet; junta

I am unsure about the riots scenario. *Unless* (and if) Romney wins with a thin margin. In that case I feel pretty sure that the Democrat warlords will whip their black constituents into a frenzy with the hope and intent that they do in fact run amok.

I feel that the racial violence many fear is inevitable. If it is, then better sooner than later. I feel sad for the innocent non-blacks (history has shown that black rioters go after pretty much everyone that is not black) that will be killed or injured. However, my gut feeling is that Obama and his racial whore mongers have pushed things beyond peaceful resolution...deliberately. If the boil has to be lanced, so be it.

But for anyone that thinks such a scenario will open the eyes of white liberals, you are wrong. Any violence will be promptly spun into hate warfare by TEA Party radicals.

Until such time as the national Republican party leadership stands up in mass and denounces the lies about conservatives, the media will be successful. And that is not going to happen. They detest us more than they do the Democrats.


24 posted on 09/11/2012 10:30:34 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: StAnDeliver

I was thinking police and small business owners, not necessarily people walking through for the thrill of it.


25 posted on 09/11/2012 10:47:11 AM PDT by RochesterNYconservative (ROMNEY/RYAN 20121)
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