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Rasmussen: Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 44%, Republicans 42%
Rasmussen ^ | September 10, 2012 | Staff

Posted on 09/11/2012 11:51:50 AM PDT by C19fan

For the first time since January, Democrats now lead Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending September 9, 2012.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 42% would choose the Republican instead. The last time the Democrats held a lead over the Republicans was in late January.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 112th; 2012polls; congress; jobapproval
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Oh boy. Just want a pessimist like me needs. What is going on???
1 posted on 09/11/2012 11:51:56 AM PDT by C19fan
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To: C19fan

Byron York may have been right. With record levels of pessimism about the economy and long-term job prospects, lots of Americans may be thinking “I’m gonna need those government benes to survive. And the Dems are more likely to deliver”.


2 posted on 09/11/2012 11:55:49 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: C19fan

Are the voters falling under the same spell again? If even remotely accurate...this country is lost. The mindset that it takes to vote this way...is beyond comprehension. Mental illness is the rule: Destruction will follow.


3 posted on 09/11/2012 11:57:19 AM PDT by NELSON111
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To: C19fan

My understanding from prior cycles is that the GOP hardly ever wins the Congressional generic, and wins seats despite being up to 5 pts down (or more)

So a 2 pt deficit is ultimately a good thing. But people with immediate access to the actual past cycle state may know better ...


4 posted on 09/11/2012 11:57:39 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: C19fan

That’s what a good government lawsuit will get you - better ratings.


5 posted on 09/11/2012 11:59:10 AM PDT by Bitsy
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To: C19fan

We’ll just have to be sure to bring more of OUR dead along to vote than the dems do....


6 posted on 09/11/2012 12:04:59 PM PDT by massmike (The choice is clear in November: Romney or Caligula!)
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To: massmike

“Bring out your dead” Monty Python


7 posted on 09/11/2012 12:07:58 PM PDT by funfan
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To: C19fan

Nothing. Now take all the polls with Dem +10,+14,+8 etc and substitute +2. Where does Romney come out then? I’ll save you some time. It puts Romney at 50% and up 3-5% on Obama. But polls are just that polls. They don’t mean squat when the voting starts.


8 posted on 09/11/2012 12:09:16 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: C19fan

It’s a convention bump - the brainless loved Slick Willie’s speech, and the same bump Obama got applies in the generic ballot. It, too, will fade.


9 posted on 09/11/2012 12:12:10 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Obama, a ship sailing on yesterday's wind)
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To: C19fan

Buck up and vote accordingly and vote based on your convictions not based on a poll.

I don’t care if the poll said it was 90 to 20 I would still vote based on what I believe in and I do not believe in the Democrat (socialist/communist) philosophy.


10 posted on 09/11/2012 12:12:32 PM PDT by funfan
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To: C19fan

Fake Polls, Fake Polls, watcha gonna do, when nobody with a brain believes in you?

Stop paying attention to them and they can no longer manipulate you.


11 posted on 09/11/2012 12:13:04 PM PDT by Mechanicos (When did we amend the Constitution for a 2nd Federal Prohibition?)
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To: Bitsy
That’s what a good government lawsuit will get you - better ratings.

This is Rasmussen, not Gallup. Rasmussen isn't being sued by the government. Worse, it is probably the most Republican friendly polling outfit out there. If we are losing in Rasmussen polling, we are in pretty serious trouble.

Right now we are simply losing this election across the board. The public supports the Democratic message over ours at this moment in time. They like Obama more than Romney and they are willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt for 4 more years. Though it disturbs me greatly that people liked what they saw, the Democrat convention was a masterpiece and succeeded in delivering a big bounce for Hussein and the Democrat party. Our convention was awful. Yes, it's an unfair playing field due to media bias. Unfortunately, this is the reality right now. People need to quit with whining about the polls.

12 posted on 09/11/2012 12:15:41 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
Right now we are simply losing this election across the board.

Don't be ridiculous.

the Democrat convention was a masterpiece

What planet are you posting from?

13 posted on 09/11/2012 12:21:30 PM PDT by what's up
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To: C19fan

Messaging, Messaging, Messaging. There is no consistent messaging coming from the GOP members of congress to paint the democrats as the incompetents / out of touch leftists that they are. Sheesh. It’s so discouraging.


14 posted on 09/11/2012 12:22:02 PM PDT by John from Manhattan
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To: what's up
What planet are you posting from?

Planet Reality. - where people don't stick their heads in the sand and ignore bad news.

Look, there is no doubt the Democratic convention worked extremely well for them. I don't agree with anything that went on there, but the public bought it hook, line and sinker. It's sad and pathetic, but it is what it is. There is no point in pretending the enemy did not execute a successful maneuver.

15 posted on 09/11/2012 12:24:58 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969

The DNC was a disaster. They did get good results from their headline acts in primetime, but Obama’s speech fell well short of expectations across the spectrum. Clinton did well. Ms. Obama did well. The rest was a circus. They did show their moderate side when the networks was on. Also make no mistake, only the hard core turned in on Wednesday against the NFL kickoff. Obama did get a big audience Thursday night, thought.

Our convention was good too. I thought they over-themed it and went too light on Obama, but the speakers were excellent. Ryan was great. Condi was spectacular..and gave the best speech of both conventions. Christie and Rubio were good, and Mitt gave a pretty solid speech. I can pick apart many things, but overall it was well done.

The media did their usual business during both. It is part of the landscape of the political season, so hopefully our guys step it up.


16 posted on 09/11/2012 12:25:18 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: tanknetter

Exactly right. In 1994 Dems led GOP by 4 points and we know what happened.

In 2010 (other than Ras) most had it deadlocked or GOP up by a point or two. Look what happened - absolute wipeout.

If we stay within 4, GOP easily holds House and picks up Senate.

Plus I think this is a DNC bounce.


17 posted on 09/11/2012 12:27:30 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Longbow1969

Oops, sorry, you are right.


18 posted on 09/11/2012 12:29:11 PM PDT by Bitsy
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To: Longbow1969
but the public bought it hook, line and sinker

They ALWAYS buy it. Show me one example of a convention that didn't get a bounce. Romney got one too even though you say the GOP convention was "awful" (which is untrue...the speeches were great and encouraged our base considerably.)

It wasn't that they executed a successful maneuver. Whatever maneuver they executed would have been pushed by the MSM. They have to push whatever they can because Obama makes so many mistakes.

Obama's turnout will be way down which is why they're pushing...pushing to bring it up right now. It won't work.

19 posted on 09/11/2012 12:31:19 PM PDT by what's up
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To: nhwingut

New CNN poll just came out. Obummer up by 6 over Romney. Poll says his favorability ratings are at 57%!! All the country loves the Kenyan communist! Call off the elections, it’s over. All America loves this queer-loving, baby-murdering SOB. Or at least that’s what CNN would like for us to believe.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html


20 posted on 09/11/2012 12:32:45 PM PDT by NKP_Vet
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To: Longbow1969
Look, there is no doubt the Democratic convention worked extremely well for them. I don't agree with anything that went on there, but the public bought it hook, line and sinker.

Nobody watched it. Did you see the ratings? Nobody watched it.

Just wait until the $4 per gallon gas price starts to reverberate?

21 posted on 09/11/2012 12:34:21 PM PDT by Ramcat (Thank You American Veterans)
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To: Longbow1969

I see no evidence of this on the campaign trail in the grassroots effort.


22 posted on 09/11/2012 12:34:52 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Longbow1969

they are willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt for 4 more years.

It is just sooo disturbing that people are so easily fooled. The possibility of 4 more years of the Obama administration and I will never recognize the place I was born. And “I told you so” won’t bring anyone satisfaction. The damage will be done. God help us.


23 posted on 09/11/2012 12:34:54 PM PDT by Bitsy
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To: tanknetter

My understanding from prior cycles is that the GOP hardly ever wins the Congressional generic, and wins seats despite being up to 5 pts down (or more)
/
/

I think you’re right on this.


24 posted on 09/11/2012 12:35:34 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Byron York may have been right. With record levels of pessimism about the economy and long-term job prospects, lots of Americans may be thinking “I’m gonna need those government benes to survive. And the Dems are more likely to deliver”.

Self-perpetuating cycle. If you keep voting for the Dems, IT WILL NEVER GET ANY BETTER!!!!

If that was true, then Carter would of won in 1980.


25 posted on 09/11/2012 12:36:15 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: ilgipper
The DNC was a disaster.

The bounce they are getting speaks for itself. Yes, the radicalism was on display when the networks weren't broadcasting, but this is the stuff that fires up the true believers. A party needs that stuff. The Dem's delivered to their base, we did not In prime time the Democrat's hit home runs each night. Moochelle, Clinton and Hussein each helped their cause tremendously. I'm sorry, I don't like saying this at all but it is what it is. Pretending they didn't do better than us guarantees we screw up again next time.

Our convention was good too.

Our convention had a few good moments, but there was little excitement on the floor. Our convention was divided due to the numerous Paultard delegates and their invited guests - all of whom are rooting against our own party's nominee. These paultards were nothing but disruptors who served to put a damper on the entire convention. Additionally our speakers gave uninspired speeches. Many were technically good, but they just lacked fire. The Romney campaign wanted to avoid being too harsh on Obama and that really diminished any chance that real energy could build on the floor. Attacking Obama aggressively is what the base needed to hear (even some of the paultards could have cheered that), instead we got a bunch of mush.

The media did their usual business during both. It is part of the landscape of the political season, so hopefully our guys step it up.

On our current pace, we are going to lose. It is completely obvious. Now is not the time to dismiss bad polling (and virtually all of it is bad right now). The time now is to reassess what is going wrong and right the ship. Part of that requires we aggressively attack Obama, his cronies and his record. I mean, attack with fire, with energy, with emotion. All of that is lacking right now.

26 posted on 09/11/2012 12:43:03 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Kolath
If that was true, then Carter would of won in 1980.

That was 32 years ago --country is way more to the left now ( or I should say more ignorant )
27 posted on 09/11/2012 12:44:14 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Longbow1969

How much were the Democrats over-sampled in this poll?

The only way The Disaster can be shown to be winning is 1) over sample Democrats, 2) under sample Independents, 3) over sample women, 4) poll “adults” or “registered voters”. And we don’t even know from where they pick the people polled. Even with all that they can only eck out a small lead for The Disaster.

Certainly the American voter is monumentally stupid, as the election of The Disaster showed, but that stupidity is being hard pressed by reality to keep up the 2008 levels.


28 posted on 09/11/2012 12:47:30 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Longbow1969
Many were technically good, but they just lacked fire.

Wrong again. Almost all the speeches were excellent. Even Romney's got very good reviews even here on FR (and we're just about the harshest audience.)

The convention did what it was supposed to do...rally the base around the candidate. Conventions don't do anything other than that. If you think the Dem convention fired up anyone outside of the far left you don't get it.

You are too centered on the conventions and the post-bounces.

There's LOTS more ahead.

29 posted on 09/11/2012 12:48:40 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Longbow1969

Youre gonna look pretty dumb in about 2 months. Obama is going to lose -bank on it. You just sound silly way overreacting to the DNC.


30 posted on 09/11/2012 12:50:35 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Longbow1969

Youre gonna look pretty dumb in about 2 months. Obama is going to lose -bank on it. You just sound silly way overreacting to the DNC.


31 posted on 09/11/2012 12:50:35 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Byron York was mesmerized by Bob Kerrey’s BS lies about not liking Obamacare.


32 posted on 09/11/2012 12:51:49 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: C19fan
Since the House is State by State and District by District... how does a National poll asking this question have any relevance to each individual Congressional Election? More importantly... WHY would scott rasmussen even ask it?

LLS

33 posted on 09/11/2012 12:52:50 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: what's up

OButtHead’s bounce is already collapsing rapidly as we speak. Rasmussen confirms this with today’s tracking poll:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2929481/posts


34 posted on 09/11/2012 12:54:50 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: uncbob

How have all recent elections gone? 2010? Wisconsin? Local races in general? Ballot initiatives on social and tax issues? Look at actual elections not polls 2 months out


35 posted on 09/11/2012 1:00:08 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: over3Owithabrain
Youre gonna look pretty dumb in about 2 months. Obama is going to lose -bank on it. You just sound silly way overreacting to the DNC.

I am not saying we ARE going to lose, I am saying that is the path we are on. How hard is this to understand? I am warning about the same things people like Ingraham, Trump, etc, are warning about. The campaign the GOP is running sucks. It's bad. It isn't working. Even with the media bias we should be 5 points up at this point. The economy is in AWFUL shape, gas is 4 bucks a gallon, the debt just crossed 16 trillion, and we are behind. The fact that we are behind right now by 3-4 points in the RCP polling average is proof enough the campaign is failing. Now lets right the ship and win.

36 posted on 09/11/2012 1:00:16 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: over3Owithabrain
What you say is true BUT Presidential elections bring out the mindless MSM led boobs who don't vote in the off years

That is the problem
37 posted on 09/11/2012 1:04:19 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Byron York may have been right. With record levels of pessimism about the economy and long-term job prospects, lots of Americans may be thinking “I’m gonna need those government benes to survive. And the Dems are more likely to deliver”.

I never thought of that but that might just be true. If you have been out of work for a few years and know the Democrats continue to throw money at the unemployment “bank”, you may want to stick with that then risk Republicans who want to treat you as grown ups and cut you off. I seriously hope this is not happening and people are that crazy.


38 posted on 09/11/2012 1:10:34 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: NKP_Vet

i believe that poll also showed Independents favoring Romney by 14pts though CNN has release no other data on the poll (search Freep)....according to an ABC/WaCompost this poll released this morning obozo was +1 in likely voters, +6 in registered voters- of course that poll gave the rats a 10% advantage (33% rats/23%GOP)...


39 posted on 09/11/2012 1:11:19 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Longbow1969

If Romney will grow some balls, get belligerent, and attack the President’s failed policies, his political stances, and questionable background he might have a chance. Way too many weak spots to attack to just be a nice guy and lose like McCain did.


40 posted on 09/11/2012 1:12:32 PM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: tanknetter

We had an exceptional 2010 where we picked up 63 seats. We are NOT going to do that again this round. We need to maintain and not lose any seats we gained in 2010. For us to do that, we win.


41 posted on 09/11/2012 1:12:42 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: jsanders2001
If Romney will grow some balls, get belligerent, and attack the President’s failed policies, his political stances, and questionable background he might have a chance. Way too many weak spots to attack to just be a nice guy and lose like McCain did.

It's more than getting belligerent. Geeze, with so much on the line there just seems to be no passion. The GOP ticket should be indignant about the mess Obama's made. Instead we get flowery "well, he's a nice guy and all, just not quite up to the job". I mean, I get people WANT to like Obama so we need to be careful about how we go at him personally, but come on, for goodness sakes I gotta think we could be about 100 times tougher than the crappy lightweight ads I'm seeing from R/R. Where's the fire? Where's the excitement? Where is the ridicule for Obama and policies?

The worst thing about this is, if nothing changes and R/R remain behind, the fundraising will dry up. We're in the final months of the campaign and the big money goes to the perceived winner. All that Wall Street money Romney was getting is going to change directions and go right back to Obama if they think he is going to win again. That's how it works. This isn't 20 years ago where the Republicans had more small donors than the Democrats and the left relied on soft money. Obama has LOTS of small donors. He is still adored by many. So we can't even beat them on that front if the big money backs away from R/R.

42 posted on 09/11/2012 1:20:51 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
It's great that all of us armchair political strategists can weigh in FReely here, but it means squat. I actually trust Romney to run his campaign, as he successfully has run businesses, the Olympics, a liberal state, and his family.

Yeah we all want red meat and think Newt or Santorum would be up 60-40 but it's bull. Newt would be toast in a national referendum, as his favorabilities has always been in the toilet. There's a reason Romney has taken the approach he has. First off he has hit hard at times, you just don't want to acknowledge it. And when he seems to play nice, keep in mind he is trying to win over brainwashed people who think Obama is cool and hip. Screaming at them that Obama is a communist turd, while true, does not work with them.

This is big-boy real world stuff, not keyboard ranting. Romney is killing Obama amongst independents. He is already winning back numerous states that turned blue in 2008 - NC, VA, IN, OH, FL.
43 posted on 09/11/2012 1:31:35 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: C19fan

this was part of the Obama bump that is now fading away.. Republicans will be back up in the generic soon


44 posted on 09/11/2012 2:18:35 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: C19fan
What is going on???

I think our side has miscalculated the point of no return. It has often been speculated that once more than half the people owed some or most of their existence to government that we would no longer have a republic. I think the 50% mark was too high.

I remember reading that Giuliani believed that if they cleaned up graffiti in New York they could reduce crime. It turns out it worked, and now I think we are seeing the reverse effect.

There are many people today, mainly democrats and independents who are NOT on government subsistence who want these programs. Watching the democrat convention you could see it clear as day. Maybe not even consciously, but these people believe that if we take away from the rich, they are going to get more than what they have now.

It's like this understanding they have amongst themselves that they are going to evenly distribute the spoils once they can finally kill off those greedy bastards that have more than their fair share. Of course, the entire fictional scenario is completely devoid of reality and historical precedent tells us it will devolve into a horrible mess.

Still, I think that combining those who get government subsistence with those who either consciously or subconsciously WANT government subsistence, we have already passed the point of no return.

45 posted on 09/11/2012 2:18:55 PM PDT by douginthearmy
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To: C19fan

Freepers: You have simply got to stop reacting to these polls, which are skewed Dem by a media who wants to depress the GOP vote. What normal person answers the phone for these pollsters anyway?....pan to the 50 year old guy sitting in his mother’s basement with oatmeal dribbling down his chin.

The American people are generally a decent, God fearing bunch. The drones/entitlement leeches/unions/libs/dems will challenge us but in the end, we will win. We have got to believe this.

Get up and volunteer to help in whatever way you can. See if you can talk five of your “on the fence” neighbors/family/friends into voting against BO(which is the only way I can justify this).

Listen to this: Mark Levin is my go to guy. He’s the only conservative talk show host who isn’t worried about keeping his job.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/09/11/mark_levin_if_romney_becomes_another_bush_or_ford_hes_got_to_go.html


46 posted on 09/11/2012 3:59:02 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (I don't have a tagline...too depressed.)
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To: Mountain Mary
The American people are generally a decent, God fearing bunch.

Since when?

47 posted on 09/11/2012 4:00:13 PM PDT by dfwgator (I'm voting for Ryan and that other guy.)
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To: douginthearmy

In Wisconsin, Walker was only supposed to win by one or two percentage points.

It ended up being a walk for him.


48 posted on 09/11/2012 4:00:41 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (I don't have a tagline...too depressed.)
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To: dfwgator

I’m not talking about Obama supporters, dfw but the half that is remembering 9/11 today.


49 posted on 09/11/2012 4:04:00 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (I don't have a tagline...too depressed.)
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To: Longbow1969

I don’t disagree much of anythng you said. The campaign has to sharpen their message and get more aggressive, I just don’t agree with the blanket observations of the two conventions. A lot is being judged in the initial bump.

My concerns that I share with you occurred over the weekend listen to our side drowning on the Sunday shows. The left is in full bore aggressive mode, and we are sitting there taking it or being defensive. I was feeling exactly what you expressed.


50 posted on 09/11/2012 6:21:24 PM PDT by ilgipper
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