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RCP Poll: Virginia Poll: R 49%, 0 44%
RCP ^ | 9-11-12

Posted on 09/11/2012 12:56:41 PM PDT by Arthurio

On the days of September 8th and 9th, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research company, and Capitol Correspondent conducted a survey of 2,238 likely voters in the state of Virginia. The survey covered the same questions as the August survey, which comprised questions regarding the presidential election, Virginia’s senate race, the direction of the United States, and the effect of a libertarian candidate on Romney and Obama. Overall, from August to the most recent survey, Obama’s 44% to 40% lead has turned into a Romney lead of 49% to 44% in the most recent poll. Interestingly, Obama didn’t lose votes, rather Romney gained previously unsure voters or voters that previously planned on voting for a different candidate.

Who is Ahead in the Senate?

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; va2012
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1 posted on 09/11/2012 12:56:46 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Substantial poll.

Don’t believe those other crap polls. Romney is ahead.


2 posted on 09/11/2012 12:57:57 PM PDT by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: Arthurio

Bump


3 posted on 09/11/2012 12:58:02 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 election.)
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To: Arthurio

Looking good.


4 posted on 09/11/2012 12:58:27 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: LS; randita; TonyInOhio; SoFloFreeper

ping


5 posted on 09/11/2012 12:59:15 PM PDT by Perdogg ("Facts are much more interesting than theories" - Dr No by Ian Fleming)
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To: Arthurio

Rush was talking about the polls today, some analyst actually went in and rebalanced all the polls out there to the correct R/D/I projected turnout models and came up with a 5% - 8% Romney lead in every polls.


6 posted on 09/11/2012 1:00:46 PM PDT by apillar
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To: Arthurio

Allen leads Kaine 48-43!


7 posted on 09/11/2012 1:01:15 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Arthurio; a fool in paradise; Slings and Arrows

We’re winning: Good poll!
We’re loosing: Bad poll!


8 posted on 09/11/2012 1:01:20 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Wow, this news couldn’t come at a better time. Reading this poll makes me think about how this election when its all said and done may not be close at all. We’re seeing a swing of at least 8 points towards the GOP from the Democrats in most states we are tracking. That’s more than enough to put Romney Ryan over the top.


9 posted on 09/11/2012 1:01:31 PM PDT by o2bfree
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To: Perdogg

Good news in VA. On the other hand, this same polling company has 0 ahead in Ohio by 4.


10 posted on 09/11/2012 1:01:54 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Allen ahead of Tim Kane in the Senate race by 5 points. A turnaround from August. Scroll down at the site to see the Senate race.


11 posted on 09/11/2012 1:04:45 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Arthurio

No, they had Romney up 3.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_OH_0904.pdf.


12 posted on 09/11/2012 1:06:04 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Arthurio
Certainly good news if true. Most polling and Karl Rove (yes, Rove, but he knows how elections are won) think Virginia is pretty much tied now. Let's hope this is the beginning of a trend!

One fact that adds validity to this result is that the swing state polling has consistently showed a near tie while the national polling gave Barry a sizeable bump.

13 posted on 09/11/2012 1:06:57 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Obama, a ship sailing on yesterday's wind)
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To: Arthurio

We-can-come-in-off-the-ledge bump


14 posted on 09/11/2012 1:07:51 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Arthurio

Undecideds broke 100% for Romney


15 posted on 09/11/2012 1:08:22 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

In the end, it is going to come down to turnout on Election Day, and the drive behind early voting.

Nothing is a done deal yet. Some could still hinge on the outcome of the debates yet to be held. Should Romney do sufficiently well to put Current Occupant into a deepening shadow, even some of the “almost sure” O voters could still flee. Conversely, if Romney pulls a McCain concession on point after point, there is little encouragement, and all the doubts the T.E.A. party had about Romney will crop up in full bloom.

If Romney goes after Obama with even half the thrust he applied in skewering Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, the debates will be almost over before they are half through.


16 posted on 09/11/2012 1:09:20 PM PDT by alloysteel (Are you better off than you were four years ago? Well, are you?)
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To: Revolting cat!

Polls that are not in line with basic demographic and party affiliation realities are bad polls.

Romney was ahead by 11 points in a NC poll released yesterday. It also shows him getting 30% of the black vote. That’s a bad poll.

Polls which show Romney up double digits with independents but trailing 0 are also bad polls.


17 posted on 09/11/2012 1:10:13 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Wow. This good news didn’t arrive too quickly. woohoo!!!!


18 posted on 09/11/2012 1:11:47 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: Arthurio

Lets ignore ALL polls until the end of Oct.


19 posted on 09/11/2012 1:12:22 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Arthurio

Could it be that many of us here in the trenches will not talk to a pollster? That only the idle, loose-lipped folks have the time and inclination to respond?


20 posted on 09/11/2012 1:12:59 PM PDT by USMCPOP (Father of LCpl. Karl Linn, KIA 1/26/2005 Al Haqlaniyah, Iraq)
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To: KansasGirl

I hope Allen gets back in the Senate. Romney needs to win Ohio though. Is it possible for Romney to win without Ohio?


21 posted on 09/11/2012 1:13:33 PM PDT by Laura722
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To: Revolting cat!

>> We’re loosing: Bad poll!

We’re misspeling: Bad cat!


22 posted on 09/11/2012 1:14:42 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: fortheDeclaration

>> Lets ignore ALL polls

I agree. Checks and surbs and hunkies too.


23 posted on 09/11/2012 1:16:13 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Arthurio

Smack down.

I think, IIRC, that this is the company that recently had Romney up by 15 points in Florida.

Can anyone verify?


24 posted on 09/11/2012 1:16:51 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: USMCPOP

I talked to a pollster earlier this year during the Republican primaries .... was honest, too. The problem was the way the questions were constructed .... definitely didn’t ask the ones I wanted to answer.


25 posted on 09/11/2012 1:17:32 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

Interestingly, if anyone wants to put their money where their mouth (or opinion) is here, some bookmakers, such as UK outfit Ladbrokes, STILL have Obama strong favorite to win Virginia:

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/us-presidential-election/presidential-state-betting-—virginia-e216011806


26 posted on 09/11/2012 1:17:44 PM PDT by Zajko (Never wrestle with a pig. You'll both get dirty, but the pig likes it.)
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To: Arthurio

Sounds good to me.


27 posted on 09/11/2012 1:18:06 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Arthurio

It also shows Romney ahead +3 in Ohio.


28 posted on 09/11/2012 1:18:15 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Laura722
Is it possible for Romney to win without Ohio?

Yes, by several scenarios.

29 posted on 09/11/2012 1:18:57 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (Romney was right about the Olympics, but neither the Brits or the Dems will admit it.)
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To: USMCPOP

>> Could it be that many of us here in the trenches will not talk to a pollster?

I dunno... I keep hoping one will call here. I could use the entertainment. :-)


30 posted on 09/11/2012 1:19:28 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Nervous Tick
Could it be that many of us here in the trenches will not talk to a pollster?

I hang upon them...one of them was Rasmussen.

31 posted on 09/11/2012 1:20:51 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Arthurio
Romney was ahead by 11 points in a NC poll released yesterday. It also shows him getting 30% of the black vote. That’s a bad poll.

Are you certain? NC voted for traditional marriage (blacks supported traditional marriage in a big way in that vote) and the VERY NEXT DAY Obamugabe went on tv to tell everyone he had "evolved" to the point where he now celebrates sodomy.

Blacks in NC, perhaps, felt betrayed.

32 posted on 09/11/2012 1:21:53 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Laura722
Romney needs to win Ohio though. Is it possible for Romney to win without Ohio?

Only if he wins NC, VA, IA, CO, NV, FL and Wisconsin, and maybe NH. So it's possible but it's like drawing an inside straight in poker.

33 posted on 09/11/2012 1:22:04 PM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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MY NAME IS WENDY ROSEN

I AM A DEMOCRAT RUNNING FOR CONGRESS!




I voted for Obama
in Maryland!




I voted for Obama
in Florida!



I voted for Obama
in the other 55 states!


34 posted on 09/11/2012 1:23:24 PM PDT by devolve (----- ------- ------------GO_AHEAD---MAKE_MY_SPAGHETTI-------- ----------------------------)
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To: who knows what evil?

Malfunctioning space bar alert: “I hang up on them...”


35 posted on 09/11/2012 1:23:42 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Michael.SF.

Let’s not find out.


36 posted on 09/11/2012 1:24:21 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: WashingtonSource

OK, OK I’m putting my cyanide pill down...


37 posted on 09/11/2012 1:25:11 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: fortheDeclaration
Lets ignore ALL polls until the end of Oct.

I try, I am better than I was. I read them here now instead of going to the poll sites!

38 posted on 09/11/2012 1:26:20 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: Arthurio
holy crap. how did those numbers get passed the censors ?
39 posted on 09/11/2012 1:26:50 PM PDT by stylin19a (Obama -> Ransom "Rance" Stoddard)
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To: Michael.SF.

I would love to see those scenarios. Since Romney appears to be doing worse in Michigan and Pennsylvania than Ohio, I cannot see him taking either of those two and losing Ohio. The same holds true for Colorado, Nevada, and (probably) Iowa. What state(s) can he get the eleven electoral votes needed to get 270?


40 posted on 09/11/2012 1:26:50 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Gravis Florida poll

Mitt Romney 48.0% (48.3%)
Barack Obama 46.7% (45.1%)
Other/Unsure 5.2% (6.6%)


41 posted on 09/11/2012 1:28:13 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: apillar

It’s bad for Obama. They are doing it for two reasons. Leftist leanings of course, but secondly they are doing it to create the image of a horserace for “news”. It’s not close. Romney is way ahead. At the ground floor I see it every day. Even as anecdotal as stickers and signs and such - it’s not even remotely close. I think a potato could beat Obama this time around.


42 posted on 09/11/2012 1:31:35 PM PDT by commonguymd (New media has not replaced the MSM. It has emboldened it. twitter @commonguymd)
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To: Arthurio

What is it with everyone’s spelling these days? I would feel better if the pollster could at least spell the Democrat running for Senate in Virginia correctly. Geez.


43 posted on 09/11/2012 1:35:58 PM PDT by republicangel
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To: Arthurio

Good news/Bad news.

Good news: the 43% for 0bama appears to be a ceiling for him. It’s pretty clear that he has difficulty getting any permanent traction above 43% nationally, and in particular in the battleground states.

Bad news: 43% is also his floor. Which means that 43% of likely voters are stupid enough, corrupt enough, or just plain lazy enough, to vote for the WORST American president in a century no matter what. And in some states such as California, New York and Massachussetts, that number is well over 50%.

I think you could have a video of 0bama simultaneously selling drugs to a 10 year old girl, engaging in a sex act with Reggie Love, while accepting a bribe at midnight in the basement of the Chinese Embassy, and he wouldn’t lose any of that 43%. And that number seems to increase every decade, which does not bode well for the long-term prospects for our country.


44 posted on 09/11/2012 1:38:35 PM PDT by henkster (We're the slaves of the phony leaders...)
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To: Revolting cat!

Yes, but the judging of polls can be quite definitive now.

1) if it isn’t likely voters, dismiss it.
2) State polls matter more than national polls, particularly swing states.
3) If D’s, R’s and I’s are all above 30%, it’s probably a fair enough sample but, still, watch the breakdown.
4) If incumbents have a favorable rating below 50%, that’s trouble for them. If it’s below 45%, that’s big trouble.

Apply these rules to every poll that comes out and dismiss the rest and you will have a much more accurate idea of the way this election is turning out.


45 posted on 09/11/2012 1:39:47 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: Nervous Tick

Your right, but its what it is, I won’t backpeddle!


46 posted on 09/11/2012 1:43:12 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Laura722

Romney will win Ohio.


47 posted on 09/11/2012 1:46:35 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: devolve
MY NAME IS WENDY ROSEN

I AM WAS

A DEMOCRAT RUNNING FOR CONGRESS!


48 posted on 09/11/2012 1:49:21 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: KansasGirl

Anybody know if the Washington Post is pushing the macaca issue against Allen? Or are they letting bygones be bygones????


49 posted on 09/11/2012 1:53:01 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: KansasGirl

Anybody know if the Washington Post is pushing the macaca issue against Allen? Or are they letting bygones be bygones????


50 posted on 09/11/2012 1:53:19 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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