Skip to comments.The states to watch this presidential election
Posted on 09/11/2012 5:44:30 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
The presidential race has narrowed to a core of nine states, a collection of margin-of-error battlegrounds spread across nearly every region.
From New Hampshire in the Northeast to Nevada in the Rocky Mountain West, there is little disagreement between the two campaigns about the places where the election will be won and lost. Aside from those two swing states, there are seven others: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Some of them are familiar presidential battlegrounds, accustomed to playing a pivotal role every four years. Others are relative newcomers to the swing state roster. Every one of them was carried by President Barack Obama in 2008.
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So awesome that Wisconsin is a battleground.
I think Romney/ Ryan will win all those states.
I’ve been through Nevada several times. I missed the Rocky Mountains.
Damn California, New York and Illinois. Obama gets 104 EVs just for being a shiftless bum with no work ethic.
This is my take on these nine states:
Colorado- Obama led, but now it’s too close to call. A big margin in the Colorado Springs area is essential, while Romney should improve on McCain’s performance in the western part of the state. The Denver suburbs will be key.
Florida- Obama just barely won this last time, but polls are all over the map this year. Given Republican strength in most elections and the housing crisis, Obama shouldn’t win this, but anything is possible.
Iowa- Obama benefits from the economy doing fairly well there and his support for tax credits for wind power. However, he’s unpopular in the western part of the state and there is universal concern over the record-breaking debt. Could go either way, Paul Ryan may be a plus here.
Nevada- Obama won pretty big here last time and still leads, but his margin has shrunk to the vanishing point. There is a large Mormon population in the northeaster part of the state and turnout there may break records. Obama will sweep Las Vegas like he did last time. The Reno-Sparks-Carson City area will likely hold the key.
New Hampshire- Obama still leads and benefits from a liberal media market, but the margin has shrunk and Romney does have a following there. Republicans point out that Democrats suffered overwhelming defeat there in 2010.
North Carolina- Obama has fallen behind in most polls, though it’s still close. The McCain campaign was caught completely caught off guard, where record turnout among African-Americans and college students gave Obama a very narrow victory. Republicans won’t be caught napping this time.
Ohio- Ground zero, no state matters more. Obama has spent mountains of money there and seems to be pulling ahead. The economy is doing slightly better, that ssems to be more John Kasich’s doing than Obama’s, but Obama seems to be benefitting. Republicans haven’t really returned fire yet, but they will.
Virginia- Obama won by a larger-than-expected margin in 2008 and government workers are a growing portion of the electorate. Republicans need to win maximum margins in rural Virginia while cutting Obama’s margins in the outer D.C. suburbs. Most polls there show the candidates tied.
Wisconsin- Thanks largely to Paul Ryan’s local popularity, Romney has pulled even in a state that hasn’t voted Republican for President since 1984. Even Tammy Baldwin, the radical nominee for U.S. Senate, has declined to attack Ryan. Democrats think that the novelty of a local boy on the ticket will fade in the coming weeks. Watch political spending on state stations closely.
Indiana is clearly Romney and is no longer considered a swing state.
I had posted a while back that I think Romney will win Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also think New Jersey, New Mexico,& Minnesota are in play.
Rather pleasantly, Indiana (which Obama carried) is considered safe for Romney, not even just likely and certainly not battleground. I agree on PA and MI, at least that Romney should contest them vigorously and has a real chance. As for NM, it's a tough sell there - Obama leads by at least 10 points, and Romney is not likely to have coattails to help with the Senate or House.
This may interest you:
According to their analysis, ... Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obamas 47.1 percent
If you apply this to the 270towin electoral map, Obama has 237 EVs, Romney has 191 with 110 undecided (the nine states).
Obama needs 33, which he can get with Florida (29) plus any state, Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15), or he’ll need a minimum of three of the nine states.
Conversely, Romney needs 79 which will require him to win between five and eight of those states depending on which ones.
Tightening up the picture a bit, I think Obama will likely take Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4) to give him 247 but I think Romney has North Carolina (15) to get to 206 and I’m almost sure he will take Florida (29) which pushes him to 235.
That puts the whole election pretty much on Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and Iowa (6). None of these five states should either candidate think is safe.
If Romney is running stronger than I think he is, it puts Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16) in play but they’ll just be gravy in an already decisive win.
I can understand that. I would too.
“I missed the Rocky Mountains.”
How can you miss them? They are a hell of a big thing, and run pretty much border to border. If you were anywhere near them they’d stick up like...well, the Rocky Mountains. Can’t miss them.
“....being a shiftless bum with no work ethic....”
Doesn’t “.. shiftless bum ..” describe the voting majority in those states?
Last I checked, Nevada was not one of the states that the Rocky Mountains were in. I live in the Appalachian Mountains and even I know that. You’d think somebody in Las Vegas would know that.
Colorado- Obama win. Too many Californiacs.
Florida- R2 win.
Iowa- R2 win.
Nevada- R2 win.
New Hampshire- R2 win.
North Carolina- R2 win.
Ohio- R2 win.
Virginia- R2 win.
Wisconsin- R2 win.
Throw in ME-02 for R2.
Not to thread highjack, but for the sportsfans in “the gang”: What do you think about Roger Clemens coming back to pitch this year, at 50 y/o for the Astros? Will Selig allow this to happen? Will Clemens fall on his face or do reasonably well?
p.s. Unkus self deleted a couple months back, so there’s no need to ping him anymore.
It is horrifying that NC and VA have become swing states. I mean, simply horrifying.
Interesting that perennial swing-state Missouri isn’t on the list. Is that because it went for McCain in 2008? Obama would be making a critical error giving up on it.
Actually the Obama campaign should be spending some money in GA, it is not nearly as solid for Romney as the polling indicates.
VA is. Yes, those damn DC burbs.
NC, Obama has ZERO chance to win it again. He won it last time with under 50% due to skyhigh Black turnout. It’s not plausible that he would win it again, all the polls that show it super close must use inflated rat turnout models.
Colorado is still more Republican than Nevada, I think it would come first.
No idea what’s up with Clemens, I guess he just wants to prove to himself he can still do it. The Astros are desperate for gate so they’d sign him even if he stinks. I do not expect him to do well if he tries it.