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Much Ado about Polling
National Review Online ^ | 9/12/12 | John Fund

Posted on 09/12/2012 9:55:53 AM PDT by T Ruth

Everywhere I went Monday, conservatives were spooked by a Gallup poll showing President Obama with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney. Then on Tuesday, a Washington Post/ABC News poll had the margin down to a single-point Obama edge. What is going on?

As Election Day draws closer, most major public-opinion surveys shift from interviewing registered voters to interviewing those whom they identify as “likely voters.” The transition from polling “registered voters” to predicting who will actually vote is a tricky one and can involve some turbulence and differences between pollsters. Furthermore, some organizations make the switch earlier than others — in the case of this week’s polls, Gallup’s was of registered voters, the WP/ABC one was of likely voters. And that could have made the difference.

* * *

Pollster John Zogby says polls tend to oversample Democrats, especially blue-collar women, who often don’t vote. Thus, “the results may be skewed toward the Democrats.”

Complicating the search for likely voters is the fact that people like to tell pollsters they plan to fulfill their civic duty and vote. A typical September poll will find three-quarters of registered voters saying they plan to vote in November. In reality, about a third of those won’t show up.

* * *

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; fund; polling; polls
An informative article.
1 posted on 09/12/2012 9:55:57 AM PDT by T Ruth
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To: T Ruth

There is so much corruption and bias in the polling process nowadays, the polls are near worthless. And the only time they really start to have some impact is about mid October anyway. Ultimately, the only poll that really counts is the election. Dukakis and Carter found out how that works.


2 posted on 09/12/2012 10:03:00 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: T Ruth; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; DoughtyOne; Gilbo_3; NFHale; Impy; LMAO; ...
Complicating the search for likely voters is the fact that people like to tell pollsters they plan to fulfill their civic duty and vote. A typical September poll will find three-quarters of registered voters saying they plan to vote in November. In reality, about a third of those won’t show up.

Of course the key question is : “Which third?”

We wont know till the election who shows up. Its not 2008 or 2010, somewhere in between.

3 posted on 09/12/2012 10:34:59 AM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: T Ruth

The only two polls that matter are Pew Research and Rasmussen. They were tied for first in accuracy as far as predicting the past Presidential races. The polls that the MSM like to push, Gallup/CBS/NBC/ABC and various combos, are all down at the bottom of polling accuracy (20th to 25th). Hopefully, people will start to clue in how the press tries to play kingmaker by pushing bad polling and ignoring good polls.


4 posted on 09/12/2012 11:47:15 AM PDT by Gen-X-Dad
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To: Gen-X-Dad

Zogby is also clumped in with the bottom pollsters. I remember when he was one of the better ones and then flipped to the dark side. He must have figured out that the only way he would get publicity was to give the media what they wanted.


5 posted on 09/12/2012 11:49:15 AM PDT by Gen-X-Dad
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To: sickoflibs; T Ruth; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; DoughtyOne; Gilbo_3; NFHale; ...

” Of course the key question is : “Which third?””

That depends....is Soros counting the votes ?


6 posted on 09/12/2012 2:32:00 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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