Skip to comments.POLL: OBAMA UP 5 IN D+11 POLL (it's another Blivet Poll! - LOL!)
Posted on 09/13/2012 3:24:18 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 13, 2012
Now, I get tired of saying this but the electorate is not going to be more Democrat this November than it was in 2008. And, the Democrats are certainly not going to increase their share of the electorate by 50%. This is just fantasy. But, its a fantasy with a very specific purpose.
If these polls were weighted to reflect realistic assumptions about the electorate in November, Obama's lead would not only evaporate, but Romney would probably post a modest lead. Even in heavily-skewed polls like this one, Romney leads Obama on who can better handle the economy. Only be massively over-sampling Democrats can Romney's advantage on this be partially obscured.
Since the end of the DNC convention and the dismal August jobs report, the media have been rushing to declare Obama the certain winner of the race. Joe Weisenthal at TheBusinessInsider even hilariously declared that the "election is over." It is a conscious effort to deflate GOP voters and drive down their turnout. It could also be a bit of self-medication. Maybe they soothe themselves by thinking if they just say "obama is winning" enough times it will prove to be so. ....
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
"Thanks again, Mr. Flynn, but enough with the polls, please!
You may wish to refer to improperly weighted polls as "blivets', A blivet is defined as ten pounds of horse manure in a five pound bag!
Save some ink, write a single line ie; Gallup released another blivet today! We Breitbartians will know exactly what you mean!"
The only hope the MSM and Team Bambi has is to depress GOP turnout by making them think Romney is going to lose.
Romney and Ryan have to keep them motivated to deny Obama 4 more years, but a side benefit may be that dumb as a brick leftist voters might stay home thinking O has it in the bag.
This is just the start. This group of debris is going to pull out every corrupt, filth, thuggish, unethical lying, and evil trick possible to get Obama reelected.
The reason virtually ALL the polls have a large Democratic skew is because a lot more people identify themselves as Democrats now. It sucks, but there it is. The pollsters who do the Fox News polling even painstakingly explained this phenomenon with the release of one of the their recent polls. That doesn’t mean that more people will automatically favor the Democrat or Republican generic ballot (Rasmussen has the Democrats leading by 2 on the generic ballot right now), it simply just means when asked a LOT more people identify themselves as Democrats.
Whining about the polls is a waste of time. First, they are likely correct or at least within the ballpark, and second, because it is better to run as if we’re behind anyway.
1) there’s no breakdown of preference by party so they don’t tell you how the Independents voted in this poll...
2) Q 90/page ten; “do you think of yourself as a rat/Republican/or what?” with Indy leaners rats = 40% GOP = 43%...don’t know what to make of it...
3) q 93/page ten; “in political terms are you liberal, moderate. conservative?” libs = 22%, conservatives = 39%
bad math on my part...Q 90/page ten 50% rats...
Well, that'll increase our schaedenfreud at his loss.
...think about this: if the Obama campaign and the media (but I repeat myself) drill it into everyone's head that Obama is leading, and the results show a loss, think about how many riots there will be, how easy it'll be to declare a national emergency (especially if there are a couple false-flag "terrorist" bombings mixed in), with Congress not able to meet and validate the results (plus it'll be challenged in dozens of lawsuits). The picture isn't pretty.
Alternatively, it provides plenty of cover for the results of massive voter fraud. Let's say the "polls" show a 3 point lead for Zero, and he wins by 0.5 points - the fact that there might have been 5 or 7 points of fraud would be made irrelevant in practice because the response to such accusations would always be, "how could there have been fraud if Obama won by less than the polls of only a few days before the election showed him with a 5 point lead?"
NBC/Marist jsut did again. They have Ombama up 6 to 7 in FL, VA and OH...
More people identify themselves as DEM but not by 11%. Rasmussen says the margin is very low now. More and more people are identifying themselves Republican. The polls are using older models.
This pollaganda could backfire on the Obambi Media. The Silent Majority wants Obama gone. They’ll be doubly sure to vote if the think Obama has a chance.
The possibility that Obama might be ahead (these polls are skewed but they are not totally 180 off from reality, Obama is not behind), motivates me and I hope motivates other patriots to pitch in and pitch Obama OUT.
REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole Americas promise!
I tweeted FChuck Tood to give me breakdwon of D and R and FL and VA are less Dems than 08 exits and OH slightly more Deems.
“...think about this: if the Obama campaign and the media (but I repeat myself) drill it into everyone’s head that Obama is leading, and the results show a loss”
... the end result is predictable: Unhinged leftists will proclaim the election stolen via voter suppression and fraud, they are already setting up to do that. Voter ID is their scapegoat.
I worry that the fake polls are a set up for stealing the election. “See, we told you 0 was “ahead” in the polls, all along.”
You know one sure way to know you are losing election? Your side sits around complaining about polls. Right now that is legion on our side.
Sorry, but the polls are right. The country HAS become more Democratic - partially due to the fact that Americans tend to LIKE Obama and feel comfortable affiliating themselves with his party. This is a serious problem for us, but just because they loosely identify themselves as Democrats doesn’t mean they will pull the lever for Obama and Democratic candidates. But make no mistake, it makes winning elections more difficult.
“Today’s RCP Average of presidential polls show Obama leading Romney by a little more than 3 points.”
That is just it. With all the garbage polls out there it is going to skew the RCP average.
I was called yesterday by a Democrat polling outfit in Minnesota. First time I’ve ever been polled.
It was 5 questions and took less than a minute.
I didn’t look at FL or OH, but VA had way, way low R ratio compared to 2008. So the gap was still bigger even if D ratio was lower.
My in-laws are from the Iron-Range of Minnesota, always vote Democrat.
About, 1 1/2 years ago, they called my wife (registered Republican) and said how deeply disappointed they were in Obama.
Obviously, they aren’t the only ones.
Since you want to so believe the polls, explain to us how different polls like this one and Rassumussen can have both Romney and Obama winning by 4-5 points on the same day?
Right now, 37.6% self identify as GOP, while 33.3% self identify as Dem...So, it turns out, more people are identifying as Republican
....and voter turnout in 2010 was higher for GOP than Dem....meaning Republicans are more likely to vote, based on the most recent election.
A gander at Nov 2008 shows 33.8% GOP and 41.4% Dem....a 7.6% spread...and Barry won by 7.2%.
A look at Nov 2004 shows 37.1% GOP and 38.6% Dem...and Bush still won.
Truth be told, an honest poll would oversample Republicans by a couple of points, if history and accuracy were taken into account.
I don’t think people are ‘whining’ about the polls. Rather, they recognize a) the bias and b) the demoralizing affect it can have (I have witnessed that on this board). To point out this media malpractice is no different than pointing out outher media flaws and bias. Now that the internet can be used to circumvent the bias and lies of the media, we should use it for just that purpose...and ‘whine’ about the bias in every bad poll.
As an aside, if Romney ends up winning this thing, we will be subjected to countless ‘he cheated’ stories (I still hear them from 2004), because nobody on the left will believe or understand how the messiah lost a 7 point lead.
I did not have the pleasure of watching the Fox pollster explain methodology. Their latest poll shows an Obama lead of 5%, but oversamples democrats by 8%. Again, looking at how people self identify now, along with how accurate a predictor that data was in 2008, all I can conclude is that the Fox poll is completely bogus. It oversamples democrats by more than the 7.6% hopium spread! And of course it doesn’t even come close to today’s party identifications. Maybe I can find a youtube video of the Fox explaination...because their methodology makes absolutely no sense to me.
Sorry Longbow but you know nothing about how polling works yet you continually lecture those of us who DO understand polling.
Stop clinging to your opinion and listen.
Polling can be skewed like any other statistical measurement. If you poll 35 Democrats 35 Republicans and 30 Independents you will get one result. IF you poll 40 Democrats, 25 Republicans and 35 Independents you get a much different result.
That is how you get polls like this one that shows Obama ahead by 5, and polls like Rassussen that show Romney up 4 on the same day.
Right now, the party identification is showing either a 2 to 3 point Democrat edge, or a slight edge for Rs in self identification. So their is NO rational way to justify over sampling Democrats 11 points, as this poll does, UNLESS you want to generate a certain outcome.
So instead of clinging to your ignorance try actually LEARNING something about polling from those of us who understand it.
That is the interesting thing about MN polling right now, they show Romney losing Everywhere in MN but the Iron Range. That is weird because outside the Twin Cities the Iron range area is historically the most reliably Democrat area in MN
RCP incorporates outlyers in their average so they are easily manipulated.
They also include OLD polls in their average so it is influnced skewed by old pols and becomes a lagging indicator.
Personally I don’t bother with RCP averages. They are as honest and internet voting.
Johnnie look, the polls are pretty accurate. Just get over it. It is what it is. We get this disputing polls stuff before virtually every election, and in the end the polls turn out to be quite accurate. The RCP average was nearly dead on the last 2 presidential election cycles (within 1 point). Even on the Walker recall, the RCP Average was within .1%.
Every other poll included in the RCP Average has Obama ahead. Rasmussen has Romney 1 ahead. I go with the full RCP average, Obama up 3.3% currently, because it’s proven itself to be highly accurate and helps flatten out outliers.
I remember people refusing to believe the polls when they showed O’Donnell was going to get crushed by about 17 points. We were treated with endless posts about how the polls were wrong. O’Donnell lost by 17 points. Remember 2008? The polls showed Obama was going to win by around 7 or 8 points and we had countless posts here claiming the polls were wrong? Yeah, Obama won by 7.3%. The list goes on and on. The polls are fairly accurate, especially if you use the RCP average to flatten out the outliers.
Aug 37.6% rep, 33.3% dem, 29.2% ind.
HAHAHA Johnnie. You don't anything. You are one of the most ignorant posters here. You're the person who recently tried to argue the RCP average wasn't accurate because it didn't predict the Walker recall results. Then I showed you it predicted it within .1% and you just kinda vanished off the thread.
“The reason virtually ALL the polls have a large Democratic skew is because a lot more people identify themselves as Democrats now.”
Didn’t put this in quotations in my last post. Sorry!
I gave you the facts and your response was to start screaming in hysteria.
Put your emotions on hold and LEARN something. Your instance on clinging to your emotional opinions and ignoring the facts like that just embarrasses you.
Yes, Rasmussen has one good result for us. Unfortunately, virtually every other poll is showing that this election cycle more people self identify as Democrats. That does not mean they intend to vote Democrat, it just means in almost every poll more people are responding that they are self identified Democrats. If you want to believe that there is a conspiracy among EVERY other pollster (including Fox News’ pollsters) but Rasmussen to generate this result, well, go ahead. Unfortunately, I don’t buy that. Either way, that is why the RCP Average is good. It includes enough polls to even out the outliers.
I posted this thread as humor, so I'm laughing. I got a good laugh from the term "Blivet Poll", I find it quite amusing.
“That is weird because outside the Twin Cities the Iron range area is historically the most reliably Democrat area in MN”
I believe what is happening is we are seeing the Conservative Democrat of yore coming back to the surface.
I agree with you that when all polls show a tie or your candidate behind, your candidate is most likely behind.
BUT I will say polls this far out are not as accurate as those two to one week before the election.
People...Walker was ahead in all polls a few days before the recall. I don’t see why some of you keep using this as an example of how the polls didn’t get it.
Now 2010, the polls were off, but lets be honest. Polling during a mid term is more tricky.
How do you reconcile having Obama up 5 in one poll and Romney up 4 in another on the same day?
This is what is so frustrating about those Freepers who want to define reality by what they read in a poll. Polls are some of the most easily manipulated data around.
Averaging the polling this far out does not give you a good sense of the race since it equally weights a good reliable likely voter poll like Rasmussen with an any adult who answers the phone poll junk Media poll like CNN/NBC/ABC etc.
Anyone who buys into the thrown-together-mess of RCP polls & takes +11 dem poll is not serious.....so don’t let this poster trouble you. Waste of time.
I don't know why I beat my head against this particular wall every 2 years. Some people just have to have the drama of the Yo-Yo polling effect "We are up, we are down, we are up, we are down"
It's a scam. Ever wonder why races suddenly 'tighten up in the polls' at the very end?
From the Post 2008 Election analysis of polling
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23
Ok, so Obama got his post-convention bump, who wasn’t expecting that?
I do believe the events in Egypt and Libya will give a quick end to the bump and get things back to where they were pre-convention.
It’s all going to come down to the debates, maybe more so than any previous election.
HuffPost Pollster, formerly known as Pollster.com ?
This Middle East blowup changes the dynamics. I don’t see how Obama’s Chicago clown car operation is in any way prepared to deal with this.
Funny isn’t it. And yet they list “that right wing Republican stooge” Rasmussen as the most accurate pollster!
The ridiculous over sampling of democrats in these polls showing Obama winning makes me wonder if they’re not engineered to cause riots when Romney wins?
It’s interesting, that’s for sure. Also found it funny that Gallup is almost last! I don’t care much for Gallup.
Wow, let’s hope not. But I don’t put anything past the Obama zombies.
The election will be decided in 10 states so they shouldn't be reporting results from the other 40 states as if they are meaningful.
Obamas personal favorable rating also improves — up two points to 53 percent since the conventions. Romneys favorable rating holds steady at 49 percent.
The poll finds the president has a significant advantage on most issues and candidate traits. Voters trust Obama more than Romney on foreign policy (+15 points), education (+14 points), Medicare (+11 points), health care (+9 points) and terrorism (+8 points).......
The Fox News poll is based on live telephone interviews on landlines and cell phones from September 9 to September 11 among 1,056 randomly-chosen likely voters nationwide. Likely voters are registered voters who are considered most likely to vote in the November presidential election.
Fox News poll: Obama ticket has edge after conventions wrap up(By Dana Blanton Published September 12, 2012 FoxNews.com)
Just watching both sides operate I can see Democrats united appearing confident Obama will win and Republicans (public figures) looking/sounding pretty uneasy about how Romney is doing, except Rush of course. Time is running out.