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Is North Carolina Still in Play for Obama?
Real Clear Politics ^ | September 12, 2012 | Erin McPike

Posted on 09/13/2012 4:24:25 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued

Romney pollster Neil Newhouse crowed in a Monday memo that the Obama campaign “is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal.” He cited the campaign’s television buy in the state “to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35 percent compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.”

Placing his nominating convention in Charlotte was considered key to the president’s chances of winning the state in November. But the final-night venue change -- from 74,000-seat Bank of America Stadium to the Time Warner Cable Arena, with less than a quarter of that capacity -- put a damper on the campaign’s organizing plans.

Obama’s team issued 65,000 acceptance-speech credentials to supporters and had another 19,000 supporters on a waiting list. Campaign officials admit to disappointment over the relocation of the president’s acceptance speech last Thursday -- no surprise given that they had repeatedly talked up how far the convention would go in mobilizing North Carolina voters.

Privately, Democratic operatives and even aides on the Obama team have been bearish about their chances of winning the Tar Heel State a second time (after eking out a 14,000-vote win in 2008), even though they believe the demographics are moving in their favor. (One senior staffer told RCP at the convention that if the president loses North Carolina in 2012, the party will “win it in 2016.”)

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: North Carolina
KEYWORDS: northcarolina

1 posted on 09/13/2012 4:24:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued

Yeah, kinda. But it’s going to be tough. It will be close but I would bet on Romney winning this state.


2 posted on 09/13/2012 4:26:32 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Clintonfatigued

I’m dumbfounded that any part of North America is still in play..????????????????????????????????????


3 posted on 09/13/2012 4:27:55 PM PDT by Leep (I'm a Chic-Fil-- A-merican)
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To: RIghtwardHo

NC will be bright red.


4 posted on 09/13/2012 4:28:58 PM PDT by boomop1 (term limits will only save this country.)
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To: boomop1

Obama is Leaving the State


5 posted on 09/13/2012 4:30:06 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: MitchellC; JaneNC; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; ...

Two polls, Survey USA and Elon University, show Obama falling behind and losing ground. Interestingly, the convention in Charlotte may have backfired, given its sex-obsessed agenda (abortion, gay marraige, and taxpayer-funding of birth control) as well as the astonishing flap over mentioning God in the platform. It got more coverage in North Carolina than elsewhere.


6 posted on 09/13/2012 4:30:54 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Nope, not even...

Observe the results of the Marriage amendment vote (60+ in favor of man and woman) and the disgraceful Dim Governor who isn’t even running.


7 posted on 09/13/2012 4:31:26 PM PDT by 103198
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To: Clintonfatigued; jesseam; unkus; vette6387; freekitty; Forty-Niner; IrishMike; SandRat; ...

Barry is probably more popular in Cairo and in Libya, ya think? One can assume they love Presidents who suck up to terrorists.


8 posted on 09/13/2012 4:31:31 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: Clintonfatigued

Same phenomenon is showing in VA polling. In one survey Romney had seen significant movement after the DNC while Obama’s numbers stayed flat. It looks like a lot of independent voters who might otherwise of been open to O were really alienated by the abortion fest in NC


9 posted on 09/13/2012 4:34:43 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Think of the cancellation of the big whoop-t-do in the football stadium. They could not fill the stadium up for the won.
10 posted on 09/13/2012 4:40:15 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

That fact that this question is even asked is very telling.... And very promising for the ‘good(er) guys’


11 posted on 09/13/2012 4:50:10 PM PDT by JoshuaLawrenceChamberlain
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To: no-to-illegals

NOW that to me speaks volumes instead of polls!! Look at the size of the crowds, that’s indication as to WHO has the BIG MO!! And I believe R&R have it no matter how much the mediaWHORES along with the pollsters bitch and whine!


12 posted on 09/13/2012 4:52:34 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: ExTexasRedhead

Yep, I just love a POTUS and SOS who are more interested in ripping their own country apart for global purposes using the UN as a springboard which seems to be a particular favorite of Hill and Bill. I don’t know what is true; but they sure don’t favor America. They should be tried tried for treason.


13 posted on 09/13/2012 5:16:31 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: Clintonfatigued
. . . the convention in Charlotte may have backfired, given its sex-obsessed agenda (abortion, gay marriage, and taxpayer-funding of birth control) . . .

We have the genius of Todd Akin to thank for that, whose remarks shortly prior flipped the libs into public hyperventilation over issues that are lower on the priority list for the general population, no thanks to/from Karl Rove.

14 posted on 09/13/2012 5:16:31 PM PDT by Fester Chugabrew (oboy)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Absolute NO southern state is in PLAY for Obama, not NC, not FL, not MO, none of them.. The only possible exception would be VA and that’s only if the DC area contingent can overwhelm the rest of the state..

OBAMA is Dead Man Walking in the south.


15 posted on 09/13/2012 5:24:16 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Clintonfatigued; randita; Political Junkie Too; Impy; InterceptPoint; SunkenCiv; fieldmarshaldj; ...
Privately, Democratic operatives and even aides on the Obama team have been bearish about their chances of winning the Tar Heel State a second time (after eking out a 14,000-vote win in 2008), even though they believe the demographics are moving in their favor.

North Carolina is one state where it is quite obvious that Obama's small margin of victory in '08 was obtained by fraud.

16 posted on 09/13/2012 5:52:38 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Clintonfatigued

Short answer, no.

I’m also about an inch from calling VA for willard. Want to see what the next Ras poll says, but I think the momentum is going willard. The Amb. to Libya being murdered will not help hussein in the People’s Republic of NOVA one bit. Keep in mind lots of them are civil servants, foreign service.

Full disclosure. I intend to vote against willard and for a conservative second party candidate.


17 posted on 09/13/2012 6:00:07 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Vote for willard - he doesn't need to earn your vote, he's entitled to it.)
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To: Fester Chugabrew
. . . the Dem convention may have backfired, given its sex-obsessed agenda (abortion, gay marriage, and taxpayer-funding of birth control) . . .

Did you hear? (/snix)

"Swing state" delegates were invited to a wife-swapping party featuring a communal hot tub. The swinging party was attended by Mr and Mrs Obama, Mr and Mrs Joe Biden, Mr and Mrs David Axelrod, Mr and Mrs Rham Emanuel, Mr and Mrs Robert Gibbs. Ex-Penn State President Dr Graham Spanier---the human sexuality scholar --- was on hand to assist in wife-swapping and other group sex techniques.

Sandra Fluck, nationally known fornicator, and contraceptive hoarder, showed delegates how to use contraceptives to prevent being punished with a baby.

Planned Parenthood's "Sex Is Okay" programs for teens and pre-teens was attended by the Obama daughters.

18 posted on 09/13/2012 6:05:03 PM PDT by Liz ("Come quickly, I'm tasting the stars." Dom Perignon)
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To: HamiltonJay

I tend to agree. I think the election map will bear a stunning resemblance to the map of CSA versus northern states circa 1862.

This election in my view is going to come down to the midwest, not the south.


19 posted on 09/13/2012 6:40:07 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Vote for willard - he doesn't need to earn your vote, he's entitled to it.)
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To: RKBA Democrat

In terms of the Rust Belt.... Obama is dead in IN, WI, OH an IA. MN and IL are safe, MI and PA I believe could be winnable if Romney fights for them. IMHO


20 posted on 09/13/2012 8:51:23 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Clintonfatigued
Two polls, Survey USA and Elon University, show Obama falling behind and losing ground.

So why are the 'Rat drones so cocky about carrying NC in 2016 on "demographic change"? What, there wasn't enough "demographic change" since Terry Sanford came into office, to keep the State voting 'Rat?

Or is their an undertow among all voters of wising-up to the 'Rat agenda?

NC voters seem to have puked all over Barry's gayfest/abortfest/Muzziefest this time.

21 posted on 09/13/2012 11:34:16 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: RKBA Democrat

I moved away from “Fartin’ Martin” O’Malley and the Maryland S.S.R. across the river into “NOVA”, where my state delegate had to resign because he cheated on his wife and his ‘rat successor won the special election by a 75-20-5 margin, and the state senator is a Barney Frank wannabe (homosexual, socialist, ethnic Jew). The ‘Rats even have a city council member in Alexandria named, get this, Redella Pepper (she goes by “Del”, should have gone by “Red”).

I wish I could be as optimistic as you on Virginia. Sadly, our governor (who is a college classmate of mine) places a higher law enforcement priority on enforcing the HOV-3 lanes on the local freeways than he does on making sure military have absentee ballots or fighting voter fraud. I have thought about voting for Virgil Goode, but the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket convinced me to vote for Willard.

Interestingly, Romney can be elected president even if he loses the Old Dominion. Assuming he wins all the states McCain/Palin won in 2008 plus North Carolina and Indiana, Romney wins 273-265 if he carries Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and either (i) Michigan or (ii) both Wisconsin and Iowa. If he loses New Hampshire, we have a 269-269 tie and the election is thrown into the House of Representatives. This possibility makes congressional open seat elections in Montana and North Dakota and the newly created seat in Nevada crucially important, since the vote in the house is by state delegation, not by individual representatives, and a candidate needs to control 26 state delegations to win.


22 posted on 09/14/2012 3:00:19 AM PDT by nd76
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To: Clintonfatigued
I live in NC and I don't see Obama winning here, no matter how well he did in 2008. The current governor (the least popular governor in the US!) was forced to resign by the White House because she might drag down his ticket and her Lt. Governor is being shellacked in the recent polls by the man who would have been Governor if Obama hadn't been in the race and pulled out the minority/felon/student vote.

One of the things that killed her popularity was her staunch support for Obamacare (and, frankly, all things Obama). This doesn't bode well for the creator of Obamacare when he comes stumping for votes.

23 posted on 09/14/2012 9:02:55 AM PDT by WileyC
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To: nd76

Well I don’t necessarily think willard wins the election. I do think he wins the south.

Ironic to be sure.

If willard loses VA and FL its because he lost the election in a rout anyway.


24 posted on 09/15/2012 6:19:35 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Vote for willard - he doesn't need to earn your vote, he's entitled to it.)
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To: HamiltonJay

I think PA is in the “cede to hussein” column.


25 posted on 09/15/2012 6:22:14 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Vote for willard - he doesn't need to earn your vote, he's entitled to it.)
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To: justiceseeker93; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; ...

Thanks justiceseeker93.
26 posted on 09/15/2012 10:28:21 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: justiceseeker93; lentulusgracchus; GOPsterinMA; Clintonfatigued; MitchellC; AuH2ORepublican; ...

Due to the similar thin margins you can add Indiana and Nebraska CD 2.

Obama has no chance to win any of them this time.

As to “demographic shifts” vis-a-vis 2016 it was claimed by democrats some years ago that “Texas will be a swing state by 2008”.


27 posted on 09/17/2012 5:13:41 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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