Skip to comments.(NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College) Poll: Romney losing ground in swing states
Posted on 09/14/2012 6:29:13 AM PDT by Zakeet
President Obama is building his lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, according to polls released Thursday.
A series of NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College polls released Thursday evening show Mr. Obama with identical leads of 49 percent to 44 percent in Florida and Virginia and 50-43 lead in Ohio, as he appears to be enjoying a bump in support following last week's Democratic National Convention.
The polls were conducted from last Sunday to Tuesday.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
The internals don't matter ... so our friends in the mainstream media didn't provide them ... and you right wing nuts don't need to worry about them!
Stop reading at NBC.
The Latest NBC-Marest oversampled Dem by 10 percentage point in Ohio; 5 in VA. If you believe thats going to happened, then you have joined 0bamas chom gang.
The GOP in OH is in much better shape today than McCain was in 2008. If you look at the internals of the poll bad news for 0bama, 99% of GOPers are voting for Romney only 93% of Dims for 0bama. Plus Romney leads the Indies. If Romney gets 99% of GOP in OH, McCain only got mid 80s and lost by 3.8, then Romney will win OH in a blowout.
I really fear that if Obama sees his numbers fall, he will do something to make sure the election doesn’t happen. Part of me thinks that is just crazy and even Obama would never get away with it, but part of me sees how much he has already gotten away with and that anything is possible.
Expect embarrassing desperation from the media in the run up to the election. They’re really going to make asses of themselves.
Poll is four days old.
That is the HUE problem.
These guys are using 2008 turnout numbers to predict 2012.
They must know that the extraordinary circumstances of that election simply cannot repeat themselves, especially with economic conditions as they are today.
If they are that mechanical that they will just go with it, then ok, fine. It will be their butts when they look like idiots in November.
I still weep for our country. How can Obama receive even 40% of the vote.
“...anything is possible...” in the USSA .
What’s the over-sample of democRATS.... +8%... +9% ?
Yeah because these polls were so accurate in 2008.
List of 2008 polls from most accurate to least accurate.
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
The poll is four days old and includes the DNC bounce of last weekend and early part of this week.
“I really fear that if Obama sees his numbers fall, he will do something to make sure the election doesnt happen.”
There is no way that this can happen short of a major biological or nuclear attack upon the US. Voting IS MANDATED by the constitution, even sets the date, so that politicians could not manipulate the voting process and delay or call off elections.
This is total Bull S. Romney is not behind in Virginia.
Agree - and also see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2930909/posts.
You are full of crap and so is Mona. You believe that Dems are going to outpoll GOPers in Ohio by 10 - Yes or no?
I’m actually glad for all of these phony RAT oversampled polls from places like MARXIST college.
The ZERO’s lazy parasite voters will be overconfident and not bother getting out to actually vote.
I see nothing that would make anyone decide to vote for BO....NOTHING! These polls make me sick. They are trying so hard to persuade voters to vote for BO.
Statement of Judiciary Committee Chairman Lamar Smith Full Committee Hearing on The Obama Administrations Abuse of Power
September 13, 2012 by Scotty Starnes
Do you really believe Obama cares about the Constitution?
By Peter Paton
There is a school of thought that says President Obama is seeking a pretext to cancel the 2012 Presidential election as he views his sliding opinion poll ratings and the catastrophic state of the American economy, with mass unemployment, rampant foreclosures, and the violent monetary collapse of the dollar and stock markets.
The recent belligerent and pugnacious rhetoric of union leader and big time Obama supporter Jimmy Hoffa Lets take out these son of bitches Tea Party zealots is seen by many on the right, as the rallying war cry of Obamas private army of unions, agitators and CAIR supporters to create civil unrest all across America in the run up to the Presidential election in November 2012.
Such a scenario, would undoubtedly set the stage for President Obama, and his hard line inner circle of advisers, Valerie Jarret, Samantha Power, Dalia Mogahedi, Cass Sunstein, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz to declare a State of Emergency in America, which would be ruthlessly put down under Martial Law by Presidential decree.
As Obama has continuously operated by Presidential decree throughout the term of his three year Presidential rule, in stark and flagrant circumvention of Congress and the Senate, it is not a far leap to take in the imagination, to envisage a dictatorial President Obama canceling the 2012 Presidential election on these controversial and provocative grounds, and remaining in office by Presidential executive decree.
Peter Paton is an International PR and Strategic Adviser
Obama fell on his butt . . 4 journalists and 4 pollsters broke their noses!
They are oversampling Democrats. You want to belive a poll that asks 10% more of one party than the other, and use old turn-out numbers from 2008 to get results, then be that sucker.
Otherwise stop being a concern troll.
Romney had better get the bad economy in focus.
..... My biggest fear is that the Original Likely republican votes from Ohio haven't had to many leave the state because the company left the state or because they had to leave for a better job opportunity somewhere outside of the state.
We left (2011) for the second reason...had too...and we took three republican votes with us.
This is the one thing I'm most worried about in Ohio for election day.....Ohio needs to have a conservative pick up (under Kasich, who's doing a great Job - BTW) because of the Dimrat utopia of Cleveland, where the current mayor has turned the city into a sh!thole full of "Gimme voters" and "brain-dead morons", just like the city suburb where he came from.....East Cleveland.
The CONSTITUTION? You mean that old dead document written by dead white slave owners?
The one that Obama blames for the failure of his presidency? (Our Founders designed a system that makes it more difficult to bring about change than I would like sometimes.)
The one that our own Supreme Court justices say is inferior to the more enlightened South African Constitution?
Forget about it, citizen. This is a new age.
So, tell me in detail, how is it the pollsters OVERSAMPLE Democrats in Virginia.
This better be good BTW because we don't have party registration and this was a single party state right up to modern times ~
First tell us how many Democrats there are in Virginia.
I do not understand your garbled statement. LS is an expert on Ohio, do a user search on “LS” and “Auh2orepublican” and I believe your fears will be alleviated.
Romney need to hammer Obama mercilessly, even if the media accuses him of just trying to score political points, and he’s being “mean-spirited”....no one but the most die-hard Obamabots will care about that. He needs to make the case why Obama needs to be fired. And you don’t do that by playing nice.
Scott's polls-- taken this week-- show the race basically even. I don't know Scott's R/D/I but rest assured it's more accurate than NBC.
The WSJ should be embarrased with their association with NBC.
Is this the poll that oversamples Democrats by 7 or 11?
Here is the Marist Poll with NBC/WSJ: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-obama-leads-romney-by-7-points-in-ohio/
It is of likely voters.
Unfortunately, their likely voter model is not the same as Rasmussen’s.
Marist prefers NOT to weight by party, UNLESS the sample is out of line with their historic average for Democrats/Republicans/Independents.
If it is out of line, they will pull it back into line.
In other words, based on our knowledge of how party ID has been viewed in the past, this poll includes more democrats, fewer republicans, and fewer independents than does Rasmussen.
Rasmussen has a dynamic party ID weighting. He continuously samples and uses what folks say RECENTLY is their party ID.
Marist says they don’t believe much in folks changing their party ID. (Which is foolishness.)
You make an excellent point about the Ohio oversampling - I guarantee that Obama's turnout will be far under his 2008 numbers here.
However, Mona Charen and Kimberly Strassel make some vaid points - Romney is being far too timid in his campaigning, and the mushy moderate advisers surrounding him are doing him no favors. I think the overall race is essentially tied, which is a bad place for Mitt Romney to be - with the horrible economy, skyrocketing gas prices, and embarrassment overseas, Romney should be up by several points.
Smart CEOs change course when the one they are on isn't working. I know Romney is a smart CEO, so I hope he changes course soon.
Rasmussen’s end of August partisan weighting is:
Aug Repub 37.6% Demo 33.3% Ind 29.2% Repub +4.3%
The polls are propaganda. Stop reading them. Stop watching cable “news” because it isn’t news, it’s a gab fest.
I find this very disturbing because we know there is NO WAY this is true. So why are they reporting it? two possibilities, first is to sway voters who simply want to vote for the winner. The other would be to give cover for widespread massive election fraud. I'm leaning towards the latter.
This headline to me sounds exactly like the "keep your eye on Florida" with Bush and Gore. That was a blatant media conspiracy to throw the election to Gore by calling Florida before the votes were in. Something tells me, they (the fraudulent criminal media) are up to something again.
Here’s what my lying eyes are telling me here in occupied Massachusetts.
Four years ago every tenth car had an Obama sticker. I spend 2 hours per day commuting, and I see one or two Obama stickers a day. (And one or two Romney stickers.)
So the Obama bumper sticker count in Massachusetts is down by AT LEAST 90%. That’s telling. Enthusiasm is WAY down.
What is the bumper sticker count like elsewhere?
Sorry about the garble......Let me see if I can clarify for you if you're interested....
IN the Census for 2010....
Ohio lost two electorial votes due to lost population....
That population left for two reasons: Companies leaving the state due various economic reasons within the state (some caused by the genius' running it)
It's generally assumed, although not absolute that those people who are leaving are the heavily taxed and tend to vote their pocket book.
The problem here is how many pocket book voters still remain since the 2010 vote to keep Ohio on the right? ....our three republican votes left in 2011.....
Thanks again for the help Perdogg.
We think Obama got anywhere from 15-25% of GOP votes in OH in 2008. If Romney is getting over 95, that alone should be enough, even if there was no massive indie shift-—which there had been.
Exactly. Using 2008 turnout models + oversampling D’s does not make for an accurate poll.
Massive oversampling of Ds
Turnout will be the key. No excuses for sitting at home this time.
Mona has her own little axe to grind and is wrong here.
Klintoon reheated the hot-to-trot crowd which was the only bounce. But Slick ain’t running plus nobama and hitlery are doing everything in the book wrong in the one area sheeple assumed nobama was great - foreign policy.
That is probably why it was reported that no one woke him to tell him about the attacks in Libya when they first started. Obama was out of it, in a deep, drug induced sleep. So they waited until morning to inform him. No wonder he does not meet with his Intelligence staff in the early mornings...he is probably still in a drug stupor until 11 A.M.
Texas is the same. No party registration, but the few calls for surveys I have received the pollsters ask “what party do you generally support”. Never have had questions stop when saying GOP.
As to how and when they sift for % party to include on poll is a much different question. I do not think polls call from pre-identified party affiliation lists, that would pretty much sift out voters in VA, TX and other similar States.
For the most part, I say polls are too easy to be mislead by those polled. Polls are easily skewed by the framing and questions as much as by whom they poll. Polls this far out should be looked at as entertainment, because they are not reflective even of the moment.
Anyone influenced by polls is just another sheeple.
Yes this is just Democratic dreaming. Romney is going to take NC, Fla and VA and probably Ohio and maybe Wisconsin.
In all seriousness, doesn't it look like Biden and Nicholson are not-too-distantly related.
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