OPINION: Libyan Invasion Imminent, In September, 2012 -- But For ALL The Wrong Reasons [Vanity]

Sept 14, 2012 | Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

Based on the bits and pieces of information scattered across the web, I am about to embark on a bold prediction:

America will invade Libya in the next 7 to 10 days.

Here's a few pieces of information that lead me to this conclusion:

1. Marines headed to Libya to reinforce security
2. Obama vows justice for ambassador killing Kinda some pretty tough talk, coming out of such a 'chill out' President, no?
3. BREAKING!!Libya closes Benghazi airport after Islamists fire at U.S. drones in which we learn "The closure of the airport prompted speculation that the United States was deploying special forces in preparation for an attack against the militants who were involved.'

So, is a military action wise so close to an election? It is, if you want the Rally 'Round the Flag effect.

What is the Rally Round the Flag effect? It is a boost in Presidential popularity during a military engagement, as "in times of crisis, the American public sees the President as the embodiment of national unity".

This effect is strong, but short lived, and tends to peak at a little under two months.

A little under two months from now would put the peak squarely on Election day.

Would Obama be so narcissistic, so self-serving, so manipulative, as to time an attack to maximize his chance of altering the election for President?

I think we all know the answer to that.

[Lazamataz]

New moon darkness: Sunday Sept. 16; Monday Oct. 15.

Oh crap.

Sept 16 it is.

[DuncanWaring]

What are you defining as an “invasion”?

Detachment of Marines to defend an embassy?

101st Airborne?

Something in-between?

[knarf]

NO SIR ... NO WAR HAS BEEN LOST !

The bloody fighting will have just begun.

[Wyrd bið ful aræd]

Very plausible reasoning. We’ll see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

[Lazamataz]

What are you defining as an “invasion”?

Enough troops for News Media cooing. Exactly that much, and no more. I don't know that number, but focus group pros would.

[Lazamataz]

New moon on Sept 16. That is likely to be the invasion day.

[GonzoGOP]

America will invade Libya in the next 7 to 10 days.

Not in 7-10, isn't going to happen, zero chance. The reason can be given by with the answer one simple question. Where are the carriers?

Eisenhower and Enterprise are off Iran. Close but to get to Libya they either have to transit the Suez, can you say suicide, or go all the way around Africa. Lincoln just tied up in Norfolk after a long deployment. Truman is off the East coast working up a new air group. Not one carrier is in the Med, and there is no way to get one there in a week. You don't go into battle with your boots off. You don't launch an invasion without air cover.

Any air cover would have to come from European bases in France, Italy, or Spain. Considering those countries large North African minorities you have to ask a second question. Do you really thing those countries want to see their cities go up in flames?

We have no air cover, no logistical support, no large reaction forces embarked on ships. Yet you think we are going to launch an invasion in less than a fortnight?

Minimum invasion time would be one month. The moon and tides are perfect for it now, literally this weekend would be perfect, but we don't have the forces in place. Miss the moon and the tides and you have to wait another month to get it right. That would make it an October total lack of surprise.

[afraidfortherepublic]

Bump for a chilling prediction!

[Lazamataz]

You make great points.

However, read this, and you will understand aircraft carriers are optional.

Touchdown: B-2 stealth jets return after epic 11,500 mile journey to bomb Libyan aircraft shelters

[afraidfortherepublic]

That’s my birthday. Please don’t spoil it with an invasion.

[RaceBannon]

no, we wont.

we will be fighting them here, and we will be called evil for doing so

I predict that will start within 60 days

[Lazamataz]

It’s 54 days until the election. It has to happen soon to maximize the Wag-the-Dog effect.

[grey_whiskers]

Overlay that with the upcoming Jewish holidays (you remember the Yom Kippur sneak attack *on* Israel...)?

[buckalfa]

I fear you overestimate the rationality of the unwashed masses. Rally around the flag they would. My initial gut feeling regarding these events was anger with desire for retribution. After reflection, I realize invasion would accomplish little but further degrade our military forces that have been pushed to the limit for ten years. I assume more rational minds in the administration would nix major boots on the ground ops in favor of air power. Grand spectacle with little risk of failure. Such enthralling television it would be, wrapping the 0ne in the flag all the way to his second inaugaration.

[Red Badger]

Drone strikes and cruise missiles don’t make for good photo-ops........

[RaceBannon]

either way, he is doing this as intentionally as he is destroying our economy, that I fully believe

[Longbow1969]

No.

This prediction is wrong. We will not be invading Libya.

[knarf]

I agree, Race.

[Genoa]

Rosh Hashanah sundown Sunday Sept. 16. Yom Kippur sundown Tuesday Sept. 25.

[Mike Darancette]

That attack would be wrong on so many levels.