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NBC releases new oversampled Democrat polls: Ohio D+10, Virginia D+5 Florida D+2
News Busters ^ | September 14, 2012

Posted on 09/14/2012 11:44:00 AM PDT by yoe

NBC is at it again, releasing heavily Democrat oversampled polls in three key battleground states to try and make Obama look good. Problem for them is that not only where these polls taken right after the DNC convention, but the last few days have eroded any bounce Obama got from the convention. In fact, Obama trails Romney nationally according to the latest Rasmussen poll. After his bumbling and stumbling over the middle east crisis, his numbers are likely to sink even more. But for the time being, lets take a look at the three new polls released by NBC to make Obama appear invincible. In Virginia and Florida, the biased polls find Obama up by five on Romney. In probably the most important state in this election season, Ohio has Obama up by 7%, with Obama barely hitting 50%. Problem is this NBC oversamples Democrats by 10 percentage points. The sample of likely voters in Ohio is 38% Democrat, 28% Republican and 32% independent. But of course, when you oversample Democrats as much as NBC, you can nitpick stats that appear to look good for Obama. Check out NBC Obama licker Chuck Todd:

(Excerpt) Read more at fireandreamitchell.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Crime/Corruption; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; fl2012; oh2012; va2012
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This is PROPAGANDA ON STEROIDS.....New media and Reporters in hock for Barry Hussein Obama...Mitt Romney is doing very well....do you own research.

May God Bless America and may We The People start to deserve His Grace.

1 posted on 09/14/2012 11:44:09 AM PDT by yoe
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To: yoe

If this was by accident they would OCCASIONALLY get an oversampling of Republicans.

I would like to see them report a +10 (R) poll - I wonder how that would look for Obambi:

O 32% R 64%

- not too good for their guy (and he IS certainly their guy)


2 posted on 09/14/2012 11:47:52 AM PDT by Mr. K (Reagan: “Washington is where good ideas go to die.”)
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To: yoe

They are accounting for voter fraud.


3 posted on 09/14/2012 11:48:45 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: yoe

Well that does it for me...I’m staying home on election night...we don’t even have a chance./s


4 posted on 09/14/2012 11:52:18 AM PDT by sanjuanbob
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What are they loosely basing the +10 oversample on? Or are they even trying to come up with a reason?

I wonder what the actual voter breakdown by party ID in Ohio is.


5 posted on 09/14/2012 11:52:40 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: yoe

Continues to just blow my mind that people believe any poll is honest. They ALL have an agenda, each and every one, from Fox, to Ras to all the rest.

Fox is one of the worst, they have had the wool pulled over their eyes for years with the folks at the liberal Opinion Dynamics out of Manchester NH I believe.

Science went out the windows years ago in regard to political polling.

Averaging phony polls has to take the cake...Unflippinb elievable.


6 posted on 09/14/2012 11:53:06 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: SaraJohnson

“They are accounting for voter fraud.”

Which will likely be precedent-setting HUGE....

I’m trying to decide between helping Carlos May in IN-7 to get rid of Radical Muzzie Andre Carson, or going to Dayton to help out the Romney Campaign there.

Tough decision.


7 posted on 09/14/2012 11:54:15 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: yoe

“NBC releases new oversampled Democrat polls: Ohio D+10, Virginia D+5 Florida D+2”

I love the headline which explains everything. We need more headlines like this one so as not to promote their message.


8 posted on 09/14/2012 11:55:43 AM PDT by bronxville (Margaret Sanger - “We do not want word to go out that we want to exterminate the Negro population,)
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To: yoe
D+2 in Florida is about right, they do have a higher voter registration there. As for the rest they are junk at best, liberal propaganda at worst. I tend to go with worst.
9 posted on 09/14/2012 11:57:46 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: yoe
Photobucket
10 posted on 09/14/2012 11:59:58 AM PDT by baddog 219
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To: yoe

Glasnost.


11 posted on 09/14/2012 12:02:00 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: yoe

Rush mentioned that (F)Chuck Todd was on TV this morning disowning his own polls. Todd said that unfortunately technology has not made polling any more accurate and the only poll that can really be trusted is in November.

You know if Todd said that about his own poll that there is something very wrong with it.


12 posted on 09/14/2012 12:03:07 PM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: yoe

Let’s just also be sure to not let any who are susceptible on our side to fall for this BS.


13 posted on 09/14/2012 12:12:17 PM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
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To: yoe

Let’s just also be sure to not let any who are susceptible on our side to fall for this BS.


14 posted on 09/14/2012 12:14:36 PM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
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To: Friendofgeorge
If the MSM can fake National Guard memos, If they can fake blowing up Pintos, it is a simple matter to fake a poll.

So much of news nowadays revolves around polls. But opinion polls are ALWAYS all over the map. Obviously, if polls contradict each other, they all cannot be right. Given, that, why everyone obsesses over them is beyond me. The media is obviously trying to influence public opinion as opposed to informing people of the news of the day. If it comes from the leftiest of the leftest media, I wouldn't even give it the time of day.

15 posted on 09/14/2012 12:15:12 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: yoe

The middle east is on fire, we have American deaths which could have been prevented with a real President at the helm, nobody can find a job, food stamps are the new standard of living for many, the Democrats shoved Obamacare down America’s throats but Obama is up in the polls and rocking like never before. RIGHT!


16 posted on 09/14/2012 12:18:56 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: sanjuanbob

Are you kidding? You actually believe this garbage poll?
Where’s your guts-—NEVER QUIT!


17 posted on 09/14/2012 12:20:26 PM PDT by charwel (charwel--Proud sister of a Swiftie)
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To: sanjuanbob

Are you kidding? You actually believe this garbage poll?
Where’s your guts-—NEVER QUIT!


18 posted on 09/14/2012 12:20:38 PM PDT by charwel (charwel--Proud sister of a Swiftie)
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To: sanjuanbob

Are you kidding? You actually believe this garbage poll?
Where’s your guts-—NEVER QUIT!


19 posted on 09/14/2012 12:20:38 PM PDT by charwel (charwel--Proud sister of a Swiftie)
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To: yoe
NBC said that in polling one small town that there were:

45 dead Democratic voters included
27 Democratic pets (dogs, cats, monkeys) that voted
12 Convicted Felons

When NBC was asked about this, they said they wanted their poll to be as inclusive as possible.

The above is not from the article...

/sarcasm off

20 posted on 09/14/2012 12:23:01 PM PDT by topher (Traditional values -- especially family values -- which have been proven over time.)
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To: yoe

Will someone tell me why the Wall Street Journal lends its’ name to this poll? The WSJ is owned by the same people that own Fox (Newscorp), (Of course the Fox poll is pretty much of a stinker also). I still wonder why the WSJ would join with NBC on anything. Anybody got any answers?


21 posted on 09/14/2012 12:27:20 PM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: GonzoGOP
OH and VA do not register voters by party. OH being +10 for the Rat bastards is not possible, though. VA +5 for the Rats is unlikely but possible.

FL currently has about 4% more D than R (40% vs. 36%) but many voters, particularly in rural northern Florida, vote solid R but are still registered D.

22 posted on 09/14/2012 12:29:20 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

If you notice the none of the WSJ sections, except the editorial pages are conservative and even those are occasionally left leaning idiots. There was an anti-Romney article on the 12th by a guy named Kaminski, who doesn’t usually go left. Then, of course there is Peggy Noonan whose anti-Romney screed is being quoted everywhere.


23 posted on 09/14/2012 12:30:47 PM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: yoe

Rasmussen and Pew are the only pols that matter.


24 posted on 09/14/2012 12:31:15 PM PDT by ully2
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To: charwel

Are you kidding? You actually believe this garbage poll?
Where’s your guts-—NEVER QUIT!
________________________________________________________

Didn’t you notice /s ?


25 posted on 09/14/2012 12:35:31 PM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: ully2

They are the only ones who nailed it the last 2 times. Haven’t seen a PEW lately.


26 posted on 09/14/2012 12:44:04 PM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: sanjuanbob

I love to go over to HillBuzz and read what he has to say. There is a Gay Obama hating Democrat who has more guts and optimism than any 10 Freeper mopes combined. Then again I suspect lots of the mopers are DU plants, having fun with the pasty white Republican Tea Party people here swishing away faux mopery on their Ipad at Starbucks. Some people just have a predilection towards negativity. Could get all Jung here but why, they know why they are who they are. Jesus Crist himself could come down and become President and they would bitch and find something to be negative about. Any Freeper mopers in the Western Pa area, I am testing for my Brazilian Jui Jitsu purple belt Saturday, please show up, get in a line so I can choke you out, would be therapeutic for me and probably help you in the long run, starving the last bit of your semi working grey matter of needed oxygen.


27 posted on 09/14/2012 12:47:26 PM PDT by pburgh01 (No more GWBs, say no to Perry.)
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To: charwel
He's being sarcastic. That's what the /s means at the end of his post. At this point in time, don't pay attention to any polls except Rasmussen. Most of the polls are released by liberal organizations that are trying to discourage Republicans. When we get to within about two weeks from election day, you'll see these pollsters start to unwind the bias in their polls so that their final polls aren't way off from actual election results. That's when you'll see Romney "magically" moving up in the polls, with the final polls showing a very close election.

The liberal pollsters do this every time and it never works for them. I think they do this because liberals are vain front-runners by nature and they get a kick out of thinking they are way out in front. If they had any brains, they would figure out that the best bias to put into polls (for either side) is to slant the polls towards a tie, which prevents both discouragement and overconfidence on your side. These polls are likely to actually hurt Obama by creating complacency and overconfidence among his supporters.

I also suspect that polling is becoming increasingly difficult because of all the technology people use to block annoying commercial phone calls, mainly through answering machines and caller ID. And who has the most phone blocking technology in their houses?...well higher-income conservative business people, of course, who can afford the technology and are busy doing productive work and don't want to be bothered by pollsters and tele-marketers. In the end, the results of this election may greatly surprise all but the very best pollsters.

Just to make you feel better, the last swing state poll I saw from Ramussen (if I recall the numbers correctly), had Romney leading by 46-45. If those numbers are about right, and Romney just take five points on the undecideds while one point goes for third party candidates, then Romney wins the combined swing state vote by 51-48 and wins the electoral vote by a substantial margin. The popular vote could easily end up tied. I think after the liberal exit polling debacle in 2004, conservatives and independents don't pay much attention to polls now and the polls mainly just make democrats get complacent and overconfident. One last thought: watch the attitude of Romney and Ryan, who know what's really going on in their internal polls. They look calm and confident to me.

28 posted on 09/14/2012 12:49:45 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (If knowledge is power, then why is the MSM mafia so powerful?)
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To: yoe

These are the same people who believed Solydra,the Volt,and a so called Arab Spring were what was best for America..?
That Global Warming and homo marriage was the issues of our time?
That spending MORE money, that is not back up by anything, is the solution to our economy?
The moonbeam and magic unicorn people know what is best?


29 posted on 09/14/2012 12:51:02 PM PDT by Leep (I'm a Chic-Fil-- A-merican)
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To: yoe

In 2009, Republicans outvoted Democrats in Virginia by about 56% to 40%.

In 2010, Republicans won 8 out of 11 congressional seats.

In 2011, republicans again outvoted democrats by over 16% — only a remarkable bit of gerrymandering gave democrats a 20-20 split in our state senate, while in the house republicans have a virtual supermajority.

Obama could win Virginia. But there is no way democrats outnumber republicans.


30 posted on 09/14/2012 12:52:34 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: yoe

I’ve seen biased polling but the polls this year take the cake. I’m not concerned though. It just means a lot more motivation for our side to get to the polls. If the Democrats and press want to be in denial its their mental health bill later. :-)


31 posted on 09/14/2012 12:56:23 PM PDT by Maelstorm (Now lets return to our regular scheduled deprogramming.)
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To: Crimson Elephant
I wonder what the actual voter breakdown by party ID in Ohio is.

Certainly not even close to +10....not even close. We would not have Gov Kasich if the D's had +10 here.
32 posted on 09/14/2012 1:12:12 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: PermaRag
OH and VA do not register voters by party.

Sure they do...at least in Ohio. We have to declare our party before we can vote in a primary. The sheer amount of junk mail I get proves it.
33 posted on 09/14/2012 1:18:38 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: All
For what it's worth but take the data with a grain of salt.....

Political Party affiliation by State and other info


34 posted on 09/14/2012 1:41:23 PM PDT by deport
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To: socialism_stinX

Thanks for explaining the basics to those who may have failed English 101. I wrongfully assumed that everyone on this board understood the sarcasm tag, especially someone with
a 2004 join date!!!

Enjoyed reading your bio and totally concur with your viewpoint and November outcome.
SJB
LQB


35 posted on 09/14/2012 1:49:44 PM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: yoe

As an Ohioan, let me assure you that +10 for democrats in this state is laughable.

This has been a nearly equally balanced state for generations...not just for years.

It currently has a republican house, senate, supreme court, and governor. If that doesn’t show the ridiculousness of democrat +10, then nothing will.


36 posted on 09/14/2012 1:58:11 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: yoe

37 posted on 09/14/2012 2:02:20 PM PDT by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
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To: yoe

As I understand it, all “likely voter” polls are manipulated based on expected turnout of different demographics. So it doesn’t matter how many Ds or Rs they sampled. The final numbers have already been adjusted based on expected turnout of Ds and Rs, men and women, income groups, races, etc.


38 posted on 09/14/2012 2:05:02 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: JediJones

As I understand it, all “likely voter” polls are manipulated based on expected turnout of different demographics. So it doesn’t matter how many Ds or Rs they sampled. The final numbers have already been adjusted based on expected turnout of Ds and Rs, men and women, income groups, races, etc.


That’s the purpose of weighting that is applied to the raw data collected. It is an attempt no matter how many you poll to get the numbers back to the basic demographic profile. Some pollsters will provide the weighting factors while others are harder to find.

Also different methods of collecting the data can influence the info. Example, Rassmussen uses a machine to make the call thus anyone that answers can provide the answers whether they be a child, non voter, etc. Also Ras doesn’t make call backs if he gets a non answer he just moves on to another number. Or that is my understanding.


39 posted on 09/14/2012 2:18:26 PM PDT by deport
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To: Mr. K

How does overall voter registration look in those states? What percentage of voters belong to each party?


40 posted on 09/14/2012 3:00:09 PM PDT by Woodsman27
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To: yoe

The scary thing is all of the “politically ignorant voters” and all of the “politically stupid voters” who, really, believe in all of this pro-leftist stuff!


41 posted on 09/14/2012 3:53:31 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: yoe

Romney will win the election and stop the US from going over a cliff by 7%. It would be 10 if it would not be full of cheaters.


42 posted on 09/14/2012 4:26:36 PM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: yoe
Hugh Hewitt Interview: Marist Institue for Public Polling Director Lee Miringoff

HH: And the screen, the sample size, was 38% Democrat, 28% Republican.

LM: Yup.

HH: Ten point spread. How does that yield a good result?

LM: Well, in the exit polls last time, if I’m not mistaken, it was an eight point spread. So it’s within the error margin of what it was last time. And you know, party ID is not fixed in stone, either. It does vary somewhat. So yes, you know, the numbers are showing, we think, a pretty accurate and important indication of where things are, stand. In Florida, I think it was a one point difference, and in Virginia, it was a two point difference going the other way. So I mean, that, both polls, all three states are within two points, I believe, of what they were in the party ID last time. Of course, the last time is based on the exit polls, which are also polls. So it’s nice to have a barometer. You want to be in the ballpark. But it doesn’t mean that last time was exactly going to replicate itself this time. That’s why we interview so many people in our surveys, and why we filter down to likely voters, which you correctly identified. HH: But now for the benefit of the audience, the actual result in 2004, George W. Bush won by 2%. In 2008, President Obama won by 5%. You are right. The exit polls showed Ohio at an 8% greater turnout of Democrats four years ago.

LM: Yeah.

HH: But as HotAir’s critic wrote of the poll, “The Democratic turnout advantage in this Marist model would only be a point less in Virginia and Florida than it was at the apex of Hope and Change in 2008. And in Ohio, it would actually be two points greater.” Is there some level at which, I mean, how did you arrive at 38-28, Dr. Miringoff?

Read More…

43 posted on 09/14/2012 7:44:10 PM PDT by Half Vast Conspiracy (I made a prank call...pretended I was a mime.)
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To: fhayek

Yep! Pollsters manufacture opinion, that`s it. The polls while phony, become reality once the masses hear the results.

At least that`s what I believe


44 posted on 09/14/2012 7:56:00 PM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: All

Reuters falling all over the bamster also.....

Reuters Poll: Obama Pulling Away From Romney

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-polls-leading-romney/2012/09/13/id/451787

We just gotta get out & vote, NOONE is going to help us.


45 posted on 09/14/2012 8:08:45 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: ctpsb

Hey, I believe everything these lying sacks of s... say, so I am VOTING TWICE.


46 posted on 09/14/2012 8:14:22 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Friendofgeorge

FOX quit using Opinion Dynamics in early 2011. They now use an outfit run by a dem and a republican (supposedly). Even so, their polls are still awful. One of them about a month ago was sampling dems +8. Bret Baier, to his credit since most reporters simply quote the results and not the methods, pointed it out to his viewers. The reason? They oversampled dems because that is what other major polling outfits were doing and they just followed suit.

I thought it was interesting in FOX’s poll the other day that independents are now supposedly going for Obama by +8 over Romney. In their previous poll independents were going for Romney by about +10 over Obama. That seemed like quite a sway for a race that appears to be close.


47 posted on 09/14/2012 11:51:14 PM PDT by dupree
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To: yoe

I think a lot of these polls are based on outdated methodology and 1) Set up to suppress the vote and 2) if that doesn’t work, cause liberals to cry foul and point to all of these polls as evidence after Romney wins to demand a recount, cry voter fraud, and riot in a manner reminiscent of Ghengis Khan. I only put the Ghengis Khan in there to remind people that as we talk of polls, the world burns and John Kerry may be our next Secretary of State!!


48 posted on 09/15/2012 12:17:46 AM PDT by MacMattico
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To: yoe

The polls would not be close if Romney was not a complete and utter passionless cypher. Show that you want the job, man!


49 posted on 09/15/2012 2:22:09 AM PDT by Puddleglum
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To: fhayek

What about pretending that an obscure, rump of a film caused massive violent Muslim protests on the anniversary of 9/11?

What’s the coverup there?


50 posted on 09/15/2012 4:44:48 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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