Skip to comments.Scott Rasmussen rejects Chuck Todd’s ‘inaccurate’ interpretation of Fla. poll
Posted on 09/14/2012 4:07:12 PM PDT by Perdogg
On MSNBCs Morning Joe on Friday, NBC White House correspondent and MSNBC The Daily Rundown host Chuck Todd more-or-less predicted that President Barack Obama would win Florida in November, citing the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that gives Obama a five-point edge over Republican candidate Mitt Romney in that state.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
F. Chuck Todd is just ANOther “Pimp with INK”!!
Of course because based on current party registrations in the states mentioned no rational sane person would take the NBC poll seriously
Does NBC pollsters REALLY think Obama is going to do better in OH and VA then he did in 2008?
If they do, they are incompetent, if they don’t they are liars.
Ras is either going to look really bad this election or like a genius.
Ras was number one in accuracy in 2008, NBC was number 13. I think it pretty clear which is the genius and which is the clown poll.
anyone who lives in florida (like myself) will tell you that Obama will lose primarily from the large block of the 40-99 vote,,,ok, lets just call them senior citizens! they live in massive communities,like “The Villages” and Century Village. These mass communities are all over the state and THEY VOTE!
It ain’t over until it’s over.
We haven’t even had a debate yet, for cat’s sake. As we get within a month or less of the election, people will at last wake up and pay attention to the coming events.
Sure, there are signs and portents galore, but not everybody is equally attuned to the nuances and penumbrations of things to come.
Then we will start to see something like accuracy in polling numbers. But they can still call it wrong, as “President” Dewey could have attested in 1948.
Is it clear that they will mostly vote against Obama? Just wanting to make sure....
I betcha if you went back to study that '48 election, you would discover Democrat voter fraud that gave Truman the "victory."
I betcha Dewey really did defeat Truman.
Chucky should join the Chicago teachers Union. they get free Viagra
Chucky should join the Chicago teachers Union. they get free Viagra
A better analogy would be the 1980 reelection of Jimmy Carter.
I live in FL and everyone I know HATES Obama.
My doctor just told me the other day if they institute Obamacare he is going off the grid, total cash. No insurance. Another told me he is retiring.
However, I do live in rural FL. They are different over on the east coast, for some weird reason after they flee NYC they want to bring it down here. It’s infuriating.
IMHO, the debates will decide it. Because people seem too stupid to see past the smokescreen the media is throwing up to protect their boy.
They do this every election. Just think 2010 and the Scott Walker recall. Things have only gotten worse, we will finish what we started in 2010.
F Chuck Todd used to work for Tom Harkin - D, Iowa. I am sure he is un-biased./s
July 25, 2012
I hope they monitor absentee ballots. So many non-residents who own property there are registered in both states, their home state and FL.
It’s not going to pay us to turn a blind eye to the fraud. I think that’s why the pollsters overpoll Dems, they factor in fraud even if it’s unintentional. If Dems keep outperforming the sampling, the only logical thing to do is oversample Dems even if they don’t know why.
No. South Florida is a hotbed of stupidity especially amongst the seniors down there. Not the same as the folks at the Villages what so ever. Unless the Jewish vote is substantially turning to Romney,the southern part of the state is traditionally Democrate. It takes the northern part to compensate for them. The I-4 corridor at one time was conservative, no longer can count on that due to the new neighborhoods where most folks are blue collar working at the Theme Parks or Hotels and resturants.
We Conservatives are working overtime to convince folks in Polk County(between Tampa and Orlando)because we truly believe I-4 will make the difference.
This state is very diverse and nothing is a given.
I spoke to a cardiologist this week. He said he is moving to Australia if Obama wins. Not joking.
That’s Tom “Dungheap” Harkin, to be precise!
Romney is going to take Florida.
They want riots. I hope they get them.
Obama is scaring the seniors to death with Romney is going to take away their medicare. Romney needs to set the record straight and fast. If I didn’t know better, I would believe Romney hates old people after hearing the ads.
I know four solid Dems who voted for Obama last time around who are now voting Romney. I just met a Best Buy twenty-something clerk who is voting Romney. I live in Cook County. What’s the chance he loses Illinois?
I think Obama fatigue is setting in. 4 years with no improvement in the economy and a declining stature for the US on the world stage. His hyped support for Islamic revolution is showing that it was a failure of foreign policy.
Even his speech to the UN was bullstalin, he said that his way was “non-violent” yet OBL was shot in the head and Momar Gaddafi was sodomized, tortured, and murdered in the streets as a prisoner of war.
4 more years of this sh!t? Only those who want to deny basic facts would still raise their hand to support this president.
Is there a way to upload a spreadsheet to FR for members to download?
I have made a spread sheet to allow me to play with the polls. Here’s how it works, When they publish the poll internals, they often don’t tell you directly the sample breakout IOW the % of D/R/I in their poll, however they usually do tell you the % of D’s for Obama,Romney and other/undecided, they do the same for the R’s and I’s.
The spreadsheet allows you to plug in the numbers and then the sample size for D/R/I in 2008 the diff between R & D’s was +7.6 D, in 2010 it was even between D & R, currently (8/2012) Ras has the party identity at +4 R,
You plug in the turnout model possibilities and it computes the vote.
The interesting part is that many polls I have plugged into my spreadsheet say the same thing.
That is the number of dems & pubs voting for their candidate are identical, the Indies are double digits for Romney (CNN & CBS/NYT this week for example)
The only difference in these polls is the turnout model used.....!!!!!!!!!!!!
If someone can tell me how to up load the file IMO it would be useful for Freepers to understand the poll game the media is playing.
Perdogg is correct.
I live in Ruskin, FL - just south of Tampa. Right next to me is Sun City Center, the largest Senior Citizen Community in the Bay Area. And I have relatives in The Villages, the largest such community in the State if not Nation.
I run into Seasoned Citizens all the time, store, getting gas ect.
When a conversation is started I many times steer it to politics. Yeah. It is a safe bet Obama has lost the Senior vote. I would say 1 out of 4 are for Obama - the rest are against and I am happy to say they are as fired up as I am.
In Excel, you can "Save As" and select html as the format.
Then you can open the html file in a browser by double clicking it. Then view the source code in your browser. Then you can copy-paste the source code into the FreeRepublic message-editing window.
To view the source code in Explorer, go to View > Source.
To view the source code in FireFox, right-click and select View Page Source.
I have to agree that a good many come here and then want to tell us what we are doing wrong. But as a resident of Broward Co, I have to tell you that this year feels way different than 2008. Four years ago there were oidiot biden bumper stickers and yard signs galore. You could not leave your house without hearing some fool in the car next to you with that stupid O-bam-ah o-bam-ah chant/song blaring. This year finds us with far fewer signs and much less "worship". Sure we are going to have to fight unions and other bastions of vote fraud as poll watchers. But this year does not find the supporters of "the won" in such a joyous celebratory mood as this time in 2008 did. Reality really is a biach sometimes.
I said on another thread that I’ve been an Ohioan a long time, and there has never, ever been anything like a 10 point democrat edge like NBC is giving this poll.
At best, Ohio has been even. It’s been a swing state for forever with a conservative southwest and rural, balancing out the big cities/counties around Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus and Youngstown.
Proof of that is that Ohio currently has a republican Governor, Senate, House, Supreme Court, Sec State (elected position)
That would NEVER happen in a state with a 10 point advantage by democrats. Never.
Thanks for your reply.
I tired this in Libre Calc. I was able to view the file and source code but it didn’t provide the functionality for the person viewing the html to then use the spreadsheet to load in a new poll and voter model and see the new results.
Any way you are aware of to do this?
I think we should use this to judge the accuracy of any state poll. Current voter registration is R 37 D 36 in Ohio
I heard one of those ads on radio the other day and it scared me and I am not a senior! It was also an ad by SEIU.
HST won CA and OH; I don’t know if there was fraud though. He lost NY and PA. Romney seems to resemble Dewey at this stage.
No Obama looks suspiciously like Dewey. Dewey after all, was showing stronger then expected in the polls which matches O current position
And from what I hear, they continue to vote in NY as well. That would really piss me off........
<table border="1" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0">
“for some weird reason after they flee NYC they want to bring it down here. Its infuriating.”
Take heart. I know one New Yorker that moved his registration to Fla. precisely so he could vote in Florida against Obama, legally of course.
Also, a couple of months ago I was sitting in a restaurant in Florida and overheard a group of New Yorkers say they couldn’t wait to close on their new place so they could register and vote against Obama.
So it’s not all bad....
Let's look at the prospective paths for each in 30 days time.
I’m in PA, and I think he might not even win PA. Little or no Obama signs, lots of Republican signs. I also have only seen a tiny number of Obama 2012 bumper stickers.
I think that starting today, we should begin posting overhead conversations regarding how people feel about the upcoming election and how they intend to vote.
It would provide a good reality check against all the polling stuff (for want of a better word) that's being thrown at us.
Didn't Rasmussen correctly call the 2004 presidential election as well? I can't remember...
I am all in. Should ther be a thread? Also, any time there is a post that hurts, we should make sure we counter it with “overhears”.
Yes, and yes!