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Why Romney Will Win
Real Clear Politics ^ | September 14, 2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 09/14/2012 7:43:57 PM PDT by re_tail20

Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.

Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.

But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; morris; predictions; riggedpolls; romney

1 posted on 09/14/2012 7:43:59 PM PDT by re_tail20
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To: re_tail20

What prompted me to post this was a video link to Chris Matthews, who dares to say that Romney was arrogant to even run against Obama.

When will Chris bottom out? He’s 67 and running out of time.


2 posted on 09/14/2012 7:46:36 PM PDT by re_tail20
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To: re_tail20

There is no justice in the world when Tim Russert dies unexpectedly of a heart attack, and that dirty weasel Chris Matthews continues to plod along spewing his abominable bile and garbage.


3 posted on 09/14/2012 7:51:22 PM PDT by mkjessup (Jimmy Carter is the Skidmark in America's panties, 0bama is the yellow stain in front!)
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To: re_tail20
I don't know who is going to win. I heard Scot Rasmussen say that

both camps are neck to neck; with each side having negatives/plus.

We still have lots of days to go. A lot of people don't even vote. The small portion of the citizens decide the future of the elections. That is a difficult realization to see that most people don't vote at all.

4 posted on 09/14/2012 7:52:45 PM PDT by Christie at the beach (I like Newt.)
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To: re_tail20

If recent events have convinced even a confirmed Romney-skeptic like myself to vote for Romney/Ryan, then I’d say he’s on his way to a win in Nov.


5 posted on 09/14/2012 7:53:30 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (Remember - Allah is an ancient Arabian moon god, and Muhammed was a pedo)
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To: re_tail20

Obama now has the same problem Hillary would have with a presidential election (that he didn’t have in 2008): everybody knows him, and either loves him or hates him (there really are no more “undecideds”). There are simply not enough people who love him.


6 posted on 09/14/2012 7:54:50 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: re_tail20

Yes but....Will Gary Johnson do damage. Why this man is helping Barack Obama is beyond me. God help us, we need you now more than ever.
If Mr Romney wins, lots of damage can be done between Nov 6 and the new admin. in January.
With terror cells taking over all over the world, quite possibly the cells here just wait for the word and we are next. I believe our president knows what is happening and he is not only not discouraging it, he is almost ignoring it. He knows more than all of his faithful followers know, the truth will be found out and guess what..TOO LATE WE LOSE.


7 posted on 09/14/2012 7:55:55 PM PDT by conservative_cyclist (We all have to Vote, NO EXCUSES!!)
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To: Christie at the beach

The small portion of the citizens decide the future of the elections. That is a difficult realization to see that most people don’t vote at all.


Incorrect. Over 60% of people voted in both 2004 and 2008.


8 posted on 09/14/2012 7:56:26 PM PDT by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - 1984)
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To: re_tail20

...we still have the remaining Embassies for Odungo to turn over to radical moooslims before next week, let’s wait....


9 posted on 09/14/2012 7:57:49 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: mkjessup

Can I tweek your sentence?

“There is no justice in the world when Tim Russert AND Andrew Breitbart die unexpectedly...”


10 posted on 09/14/2012 8:04:44 PM PDT by diamond6 (http://catholicknight.blogspot.com/p/catholic-prophecy.html)
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To: Christie at the beach

“That is a difficult realization to see that most people don’t vote at all.”

People are politically apathetic when they don’t see any real difference in candidates or real impact on their lives; very few people have that luxury anymore. Desperate economic conditions brought about Marxism and Nazism in other countries; here we can hope they will bring people up off their couches. I think there is a silent anger that manifested itself in the TEA party, the Republican victories since The Sultan’s coronation, and the fact that as Rush pointed out - with the media working all-out for Obama, he should be ahead by twenty points.


11 posted on 09/14/2012 8:05:50 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: re_tail20
When will Chris bottom out?

He's been out as a bottom ever since he made the comment about Obama sending a thrill up his leg.

12 posted on 09/14/2012 8:07:36 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (ua)
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To: re_tail20

Do not discount voter fraud, no ID’s required to vote let alone citizenship proof, dead people voting in democrat districts, Acorn, and almost 1/2 population collecting government benefits.....that is a very big mountain to climb.


13 posted on 09/14/2012 8:10:20 PM PDT by entropy12
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To: re_tail20

My take.

Obama cannot get over 50% support. Not without a poll that over-samples Democrats by +11, and even then, he rarely breaks 50%. Now, history show us that undecideds will break from Romney. They make up 3% most likely.

So we have one variable. Independents. This incumbent isn’t doing well. Polls in recent weeks have had Romney with 8, 10, and even 14 point leads among this group.

So what is the explanation for these CBS polls that show Obama ahead, if he’s losing independents? Simple. They are assuming Obama will get his 2008 turnout again. THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. NO F***ING WAY. There is little enthusiasm for Obama outside the far left (as is evident by the lack of gullible teenagers at the Obama campaign HQs), yet conservatives (though cautious about Romney), are consistently determined to remove Obama from office.

Now we have dead people and burning embassies across the Middle East, another credit downgrade, a record of no success, and a country that’s majority believe they are not better off than they were four years ago.

I think this election will be close, not a blowout, but we will win by approximately 5 points.


14 posted on 09/14/2012 8:14:08 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Personal Responsibility
->>Over 60% of people voted in both 2004 and 2008. Thank you. Fox reported the percentages of turnout has been down. Americans set a record for number of votes cast in the 2004/2008 presidential elections but failed to make history with the percentage of voter turnout, experts said. US Census.
15 posted on 09/14/2012 8:17:00 PM PDT by Christie at the beach (I like Newt.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks re_tail20.


16 posted on 09/14/2012 8:24:24 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: kearnyirish2
Thank you for sharing.

My hubby's aunt and uncle are both registered but will not vote. They did for many years but they say nothing ever changes; the politicians are all corrupt. They are mad as can be with Obama. We try to talk to them; though, they are not going and of course we are respectful to them.

17 posted on 09/14/2012 8:27:16 PM PDT by Christie at the beach (I like Newt.)
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To: re_tail20

“How dare you put up an opposition candidate!! You so arrogant! Unlike my lord and savior Obama”

the hypocrisy is palatable


18 posted on 09/14/2012 8:28:25 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: re_tail20

Yeah, Morris said the same thing about McCain. Just another GOP elite trying to shove it down our thoughts. I am sick to death of the lot of them.


19 posted on 09/14/2012 8:30:11 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: re_tail20

‘He’s drinking again....’


20 posted on 09/14/2012 8:30:43 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: GeronL

I think you meant palpable?


21 posted on 09/14/2012 8:34:58 PM PDT by sofaman (An enemy generally says and believes what he wishes. Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Christie at the beach

I never understood people not voting; even if they don’t feel the issues effect them, can’t they see how they might effect loved ones?

I’ve never missed an election since turning 18; I’ve written in candidates, selected obscure third-party candidates, anything to let “them” know that I wouldn’t be taken for granted (”they” love voter apathy). A neighboring town to the north had a school budget vote (which determines your property tax increases - in a state with among the highest property taxes in the nation) decided by 3 votes years ago, and another neighboring town to the south had a mayor’s race decided by a margin of 8 votes (originally 11, but reduced to 8 in the recount). There is no question that votes matter; what baffles me in a state like NJ is that the local races have much more of a direct impact on your personal finances, and still so many people don’t vote...


22 posted on 09/14/2012 8:37:45 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: re_tail20
You don't have to donate money to make a difference.

If You Live in a Blue State, Here Is What You Can Do To Help Romney Beat Obama

23 posted on 09/14/2012 8:38:38 PM PDT by Ziva (Check out the great art blog at http://blog.RetroCollage.com/)
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To: sofaman

probably.

:p


24 posted on 09/14/2012 8:43:02 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: kearnyirish2; Christie at the beach

A few years ago I had just returned from the polls during a midterm election. The polls were still open when I was at a nearby grocery store and asked the cashier if she’d voted yet. She said she didn’t have time.


25 posted on 09/14/2012 8:43:13 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: re_tail20

I HEART Dickie’s perdictions. He’s always been right. Hasn’t he?


26 posted on 09/14/2012 8:44:38 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: thecodont

I voted one afternoon after work for our school board & budget (which is in the spring, so angry voters don’t vent on our property tax-consuming schools); I was the thrid person in my district to vote. The property taxes (often over $7K) are among the highest in the nation, and nobody could be bothered (they actually are just incredibly ignorant and passive).

Our town has 40K people in it.


27 posted on 09/14/2012 8:53:47 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: thecodont
I know that feeling. I help at the polls during each election cycle. I stay late; meet up with hubby for dinner. We ask people if they voted; they come up with such odd responses like there's no time to go/ just don't care/does not matter what happens—to Oh, what was that today.. etc..Now, my 92 year aunt and another elderly uncle are voting. They both said no one will stop each from voting.
28 posted on 09/14/2012 8:58:20 PM PDT by Christie at the beach (I like Newt.)
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To: re_tail20
Gallup measured these two options, and voters chose "leave me alone" over "lend me a hand" by 54-35...polls have for years shown that on substantive issues voters always answer overwhelmingly in a conservative direction, but they also consistently are too stupid to tie their beliefs and values to their votes, and continue to return leftwingers to office who do not share their values - I doubt that it will be much different this time around........
29 posted on 09/14/2012 9:06:40 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Christie at the beach
We ask people if they voted; they come up with such odd responses like there's no time to go/ just don't care/does not matter what happens...

I live in a deep-blue area that went heavily for BO in the 2008 election. I remember BO signs everywhere, BO card tables set up with BO literature in grocery store parking lots, BO bumper stickers everywhere -- and now, almost nothing. No bumper stickers, no yard signs.

I don't know if this means apathy or fear on the part of the electorate. Apathy about expressing a preference, fear about expressing a preference?

I know there were more people at the polls for the 2010 midterms than for the June primary (very few then). The paucity of voters in June could be explained: If there were a lot of Dems in the neighborhood, they wouldn't bother showing up if BO was the putative nominee anyhow. But right now I don't know what people are thinking. I don't know if they think inside "it doesn't matter" and won't show up at all.

I DO NOT want to see cars with BO stickers parked within spitting distance of the polling place as I did last time. Someone will have to get out a measuring tape and pace things off like they did last time. I don't know, I hope not. Who will show up at the polls this November in my neighborhood?

30 posted on 09/14/2012 9:10:53 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: Yashcheritsiy

“If recent events have convinced even a confirmed Romney-skeptic like myself to vote for Romney/Ryan”

As Paul Henreid’s character Victor Laszlo in Casablanca said to Rick. Welcome to the fight. Watching the Nazis singing the fatherland makes one think.


31 posted on 09/14/2012 9:23:42 PM PDT by A Strict Constructionist (We're an Oligrachy...Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. Thomas Jefferson)
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To: re_tail20

mmm hmmm- and how many articles declaring ‘The Supreme Court will rule against Obamacare’ did we read before that stunning morning? Pundits were absolutely certain there was no way the supreme court could find such an unconstitutional act constitutional- but they did-

That’s caleld ‘countign chickens before they hatch- and ALL trhe pundits engage in it-

I hope for the sake of this coutnry whiny o doesn’t win another 4 years- however- there’s no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to chicago thugs


32 posted on 09/14/2012 9:25:24 PM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: Revolting cat!

We are winning! Good Poll!


33 posted on 09/14/2012 9:28:05 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Viennacon

I think Romney has a substantial lead right now, and the lame-streams know this, and so they continue week after week to publish polls that are over-sampling Dims.

They are trying to make us believe that Zero has a lead that does not exist!

REMEMBER WISCONSIN? The exit polling that over-sampled Dims predicted the race was too close to call. Actual result: Walker won 53-47.

Come on, Freepers! Every time you see a bogus poll that puts Zero ahead, click on the poll internals. If the poll is over-sampling Dims, then get on every site you can to leave comments exposing this! There are too many people on our side who are BELIEVING this snake oil and who just might be depressed enough to stay home on election day (which is precisely the aim of these crap polls)!


34 posted on 09/14/2012 9:33:20 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: re_tail20

I think Romney will win. But not due to Obumster voters changing their minds and votes, but more to the Independents getting off their arses to vote against the uncumbent! People don’t like to admit their mistakes, just look at this forum, just look at me, just look at the Pink Floyd fans who’ll never admit their fave band was mediocre and pretentious!


35 posted on 09/14/2012 9:37:16 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Revolting cat!

>>I think Romney will win. But not due to Obumster voters changing their minds and votes, but more to the Independents getting off their arses to vote against the uncumbent! <<

And don’t forget the conservatives who sat out and refused to vote for McCain.

That will NOT happen this time. Um....I hope....

But after all this terrorist crap, I don’t see that happening.


36 posted on 09/14/2012 10:02:37 PM PDT by Do Not Make Fun Of His Ears (John Roberts did more to endanger the lives of Americans than all 9/11 hijackers combined.)
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To: Do Not Make Fun Of His Ears

Exactly. Voter turn out will/can win it for us this time.


37 posted on 09/14/2012 10:04:46 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: re_tail20

Dick Morris isn’t exactly the most accurate of analysts.


38 posted on 09/14/2012 10:41:31 PM PDT by KantianBurke (Where was the Tea Party when Dubya was spending like a drunken sailor?)
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To: Yashcheritsiy
"If recent events have convinced even a confirmed Romney-skeptic like myself ..."

This is Presidential election is now projecting itself to be less about 'who' Romney is (or has been), and more about what Obama "has done" and what Obama "will do".

39 posted on 09/14/2012 10:45:08 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: diamond6
Can I tweek your sentence?
“There is no justice in the world when Tim Russert AND Andrew Breitbart die unexpectedly...”


By all means, and you are 100 percent, absolutely right.
40 posted on 09/15/2012 1:31:44 AM PDT by mkjessup (Jimmy Carter is the Skidmark in America's panties, 0bama is the yellow stain in front!)
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To: re_tail20

“Why Romney Will Win”

Previously:
“Why McCain Will Win”

and

“Why Dole Will Win”


41 posted on 09/15/2012 3:37:12 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: thecodont

“I remember BO signs everywhere, BO card tables set up with BO literature in grocery store parking lots, BO bumper stickers everywhere — and now, almost nothing.”

Same here in Hudson County NJ; lots of Dems, but none of the visible support for Obama that was around four years ago. I think some of these people will be voting Romney; our economy is in terrible shape here, and people are desperate. They are losing their homes and jobs, and can’t afford to “vote the party line” anymore.


42 posted on 09/15/2012 3:48:48 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: re_tail20

The MSM will really have to pour it on. Make sure everything Romney says, especially foreign policy, is a “gaffe.” They will continue pounding on him as worse than Bush for his gaffes and even worse than Joe Biden. Alinsky would push this hard. Make fun of your opponent.


43 posted on 09/15/2012 4:18:29 AM PDT by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
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