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9/14/2012 CBS NYT Poll analyzed
My spreadsheet, Rasmussen Party ID numbers, CBS NYT ^ | 9/14/2012 | leto

Posted on 09/14/2012 9:03:41 PM PDT by Leto

Polls have caused a lot of consternation among my friends here. Some say to ignore polls, but this election season I have found them to be very consistent even thought the results vary quite a bit.

The key is understanding the turnout model the poll is using. In 2008 the turnout was +7.6% dem, in 2010 it was +1.3% R. In the last Rasmussen survey 8/2012 the party affiliation is +4.3% R.

Most polls are using turnout models that vary from +6 to +10% D. This is why Obama is leading in most polls.

The latest NYT/CBS poll has Obama +3 among likely voters 49-46%. Their turnout model is +6% D close to the 2008 turnout model. 35D/39R/32I for their likely voters in this poll.

I have a spreadsheet I use to see the results if the 2010 turnout model is used or any other model.

Below is the CBS NYT poll 'normalized' to reflect both the 2010 turnout model and the current Rasmussen party id.


TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obama; poll; romney; vanity
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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First the 2010 turnout model applied to the CBS/NYT results:

<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->

Poll Normalizer












Media Poll results
Democrats
Republicans
Independents







Romney
5.0%
90.0%
51.0%







Obama
92.0%
7.0%
40.0%







Other
2.0%
.0%
2.0%







Undecided
2.0%
3.0%
6.0%







Poll Sample
Democrats
Republicans
Independents







Corrected turnout model
34.7%
36.0%
29.3%























Corrected Results

Inc Undecideds 3/2 challenger







Romney
48.6%

51.21%







Obama
46.7%

47.54%







Other
1.3%










Undecided
3.6%



So using the 2919 turnout model Romney instead of being behind 3% is up by 2%, if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger Romney is up almost 4% and 'wins' 51.2 to 47.5.

Let's look at the result if the current party affiliation is applied to the CBS/NYT numbers

<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->

Poll Normalizer












Media Poll results
Democrats
Republicans
Independents







Romney
5.0%
90.0%
51.0%







Obama
92.0%
7.0%
40.0%







Other
2.0%
.0%
2.0%







Undecided
2.0%
3.0%
6.0%







Poll Sample
Democrats
Republicans
Independents







Corrected turnout model
33.30%
37.60%
29.20%























Corrected Results


W Undecideds 3/1 to challenger







Romney
50.4%


53.1%







Obama
44.9%


45.8%







Other
1.3%










Undecided
3.5%



We see in this case Romney is up by 5.5% not including undecided voters and 7.3% if undecided voters break 3/1 for the challenger.

This result is very close to the projection of the Univ of Colorado economic prediction from a few weeks ago, which has been correct since 1980.

Using this spreadsheet with a variety of polls from the CNN to ARG to Reuters the results have been very similar, WHEN THE SAME TURNOUT MODEL IS APPLIED TO THE RESULTS.

That is almost all these polls, have the candidate winning their party supporters by ~90 to 5%, the independents are going anywhere from +10-+15% for Romney over Obama.

The media gets the narrative they desire by using the turnout model that fits their narrative.

Having trouble with the preview hope the formatting turns out OK

1 posted on 09/14/2012 9:03:42 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

Excellent work. Thanks for taking the time.


2 posted on 09/14/2012 9:06:35 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Leto

Woah! Thanks for creating this model. Should let a few Freepers sleep easier tonight.


3 posted on 09/14/2012 9:09:52 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Leto

This is close to my prediction. Romney 55% Obama 45%


4 posted on 09/14/2012 9:10:03 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Leto

Thanks for your work!


5 posted on 09/14/2012 9:12:17 PM PDT by tsowellfan ("Real leaders don't follow polls. Real leaders change polls")
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To: Red Steel
This is close to my prediction. Romney 55% Obama 45%

That was got it and going up by 3 points Tuesday

6 posted on 09/14/2012 9:12:24 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: MNJohnnie

I believein line 6 above you MEANT 35D, 29R, 36I. No?


7 posted on 09/14/2012 9:14:41 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Leto

But the MSM pollsters say the 2010 results shouldn’t matter cause it’s going to be 2008 again, and if you don’t believe them they are just gonna put their fingers are in their ears and sing “la la la I can’t hear you”./


8 posted on 09/14/2012 9:15:02 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
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To: Leto

By the way, nice work. My prediction still stands at 53%-45% Romney.


9 posted on 09/14/2012 9:17:34 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
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To: Leto

Come on, Freepers! We have to get the word out about this! Too many on our side are seeing these BS polls and believing them and getting depressed enough to stay home on election day! This is what the lame-stream wants!

ALWAYS look at the poll internals to see the party identification break-down. As soon as you see Dims being over-sampled, get on to as many sites as possible to leave comments exposing this!

REMEMBER WISCONSIN?? On election day the exit polling (which over-sampled Dims) predicted the race was too close to call. Actual result: Walker won 53-47.

DON’T FALL FOR THE LAME STREAM SNAKE OIL!!


10 posted on 09/14/2012 9:18:42 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: MrChips

You are correct, it should be 39d/29r/36i

My bad.


11 posted on 09/14/2012 9:19:28 PM PDT by Leto
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To: ShovelThemOut

This is going on Facebook


12 posted on 09/14/2012 9:20:25 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: Leto

Thank you for taking the time to break this down.


13 posted on 09/14/2012 9:23:58 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: princeofdarkness

Actually according to the NBC/Marxist poll 2012 is going to be BETTER then 2008 for Obama.

And even people here buy their nonsense!


14 posted on 09/14/2012 9:24:31 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Leto

Your effort is greatly appreciated.


15 posted on 09/14/2012 9:25:31 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Ryan and the other guy.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: Leto

Thnx for doing this


16 posted on 09/14/2012 9:26:01 PM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: ShovelThemOut

We don’t even need to see the internals really, just how the d/r/I voted for each candidate.

Pay special attention the indies, since the rat and pub bases are voting for their candidate by about the same amount.

I was especially taken aback by the Carville/Greenberg poll that had Romney +15 among the indies.

The message is not to buy into the media narrative,understand the game they are playing. IMO this election will not be anything like 2008 in terms of the turnout model.


17 posted on 09/14/2012 9:27:16 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

Very nice work. Thanks again. Suggest you write article to WSJ on this.


18 posted on 09/14/2012 9:27:55 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Leto

The Dem/MSM internal polls are probably showing similar, and that is why they are throwing everything they can against the wall to see what sticks.

I have said in other posts that this election is going to either be a 1980 style landslide for Romney; or, if the Dem/Lib/MSM polls are accurate, be so close that a few dozen votes in a dozen states will determine the election.

With the state of the economy, joblessness, some inflation, and now the foreign affairs problems, I just don’t see how Obama is really maintaining or being ahead of Romney.


19 posted on 09/14/2012 9:32:27 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Leto

QUESTION:
Has mid-term turnout been used by these pollsters to predict previous presidential elections? Did these pollsters use the 2004 Presidential or the 2006 Mid-Term elections to poll the 2008 elections?


20 posted on 09/14/2012 9:32:39 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Leto

Two points:

1) Although I don’t expect the 2012 turnout proportions to be as good for Democrats as it was in 2008, I don’t expect it to be as bad for Democrats as it was in 2010: Obama wasn’t running in 2010, and there are still plenty of kool-aid-drinkers who worship the ground he walks on. They’ll vote in 2012 even if they couldn’t drag their worthless butts out of bed in 2010 to vote for some lame-o donkey Senator or Representative.

2) The MSM polls will have the effect of energizing Democrats (another chance to dance with the winner) and discourage Republicans (can’t beat this dirtball no matter how bad he is). That further moves the turnout ratios in the wrong direction away from the 2010 numbers - unless we keep from falling for their machinations, and do all we can do keep our acquaintances from getting taken in as well.


21 posted on 09/14/2012 9:32:49 PM PDT by Stosh
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To: MNJohnnie

CNN/ORC poll
50.4 percent Democrats and
45.4 percent Republicans
4.2 percent independents.

Check out the independents. Independents under-sampled and Democrats are over-sampled 12.1 percent.

“Unskewing this data to make up for the likely 25 percent under-sampling of independent voters shows the results are quite different. With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the Rasmussen numbers, this poll’s data would indicate a Romney lead over Obama of 53 percent to 45 percent. That is almost exactly the reverse of the 52 percent to 46 percent lead it reports in favor of Obama. The sampling skew of this poll actually reverses the result that should be shown by the data.”

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll


22 posted on 09/14/2012 9:35:59 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Steelfish

WSJ? Nah,this is a very simple spreadsheet, the pollsters understand the game, my goal here is for my friends here to understand the process and assumptions made when polls are put out.

They are guesses based on assumptions. If your assumptions are correct the results will be accurate, if not........

The MSM knows the enthusiasm for Obozo isn’t what it was, their game is to discourage conservatives and encourage the dem base by creating the impression that the election is Obozo’s to lose.

This of course is pure crap.

I want my fellow freezers to understand this.


23 posted on 09/14/2012 9:40:38 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Stosh

Rasmussen says Republican affiliation is at a historic high.

Also, trying to discourage us did not work in 2010 or with the Scott Walker recall and I seriously doubt that anger has subsided. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.


24 posted on 09/14/2012 9:41:14 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Leto
What's pi**ing me off lately is that I was at an appointment where they had CNN on and they kept running at the bottom of the screen, “Obama leads among those under 50” and then the percentage; “Obama leads among” ...and then another demographic. About 4-5 different groups Obama led with, not one mention of a group Romney led with, like perhaps those over 50. The Obama stats just kept rolling over again and again. It made me think of when Florida was called early for Gore, which may have suppressed the vote in the Panhandle. So that's what CNN has come to— out right voter suppression. And I won't even go into MSNBC. It's disgusting.

My hope is that it will backfire— Republicans will realize they MUST get out and vote. Kind of like when I was reading, off subject but interesting, the other day where the show “Family Ties” was written by liberals who wanted to have the hippie left parents be the driving force behind the show and have the conservative kid shown as an idiot these parents were trying to raise. But it completely backfired as Alex P Keaton became the reason for the shows success and the public identified with him.

25 posted on 09/14/2012 9:41:27 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: Leto

“but this election season I have found them to be very consistent even thought the results vary quite a bit.”

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhh.....


26 posted on 09/14/2012 9:46:25 PM PDT by jessduntno ("Socialism only works...in Heaven where they don't need it and hell where they have it." - RR)
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To: Stosh

The Ras party ID numbers and the voter enthusiasm numbers indicate that this election could be more anti dem than 2010, we shall see.

Of course the events of this week in the ME is a wild card that could affect thing in an unpredictable manner,


27 posted on 09/14/2012 9:47:02 PM PDT by Leto
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To: 1035rep

Looking at the comments on the Examiner and saw overwhelmingly positive response for Romney, even from moderate Dems. Good sign!


28 posted on 09/14/2012 9:48:32 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: MacMattico

Rasmussen threw out a big hint this morning in response to allegations about his poll being so far off from the others — that his was the only poll to include data on days after the embassy.

I think the embassy thing pissed off a LOT of conservatives.

Paul Ryan was so fiery today. Too bad he isn’t on the top of the ticket. Romney needs to man up.


29 posted on 09/14/2012 9:49:19 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: Leto

v.g.

Although the subsamples are small, by combining the polls you get a reasonably sized tracking poll of independents. Romney’s winning with them. To off-set this, the media polls over-sample Democrats.

Regarding the argument that you can’t compare 2010 to 2008, because one is a midterm election and the other a presidential, compare 2010 to 2006. A swing of 6 points toward the Republicans. Therefore, a swing of 6 points from 2008 to today is not unreasonable. (Rasmussen thinks the swing will be larger.)


30 posted on 09/14/2012 9:49:56 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Redmen4ever

By their own numbers:

Total Respondents 1,301 Non-Weighted/ Weighted
Total Republicans 343 / 285 (22%)
Total Democrats 451 / 461 (35%)
Total Independents 507 / 555 (43%)
Total Registered Voters 1,170 1,083
Total Likely Voters 1,162* 999
Republican likely voters 289 (29%)
Democratic likely voters 351 (35%)
Independent likely voters 359 (36%)
*Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting.

I see a D + 13 overpoll

What do these folks think we’re smoking??


31 posted on 09/14/2012 9:58:12 PM PDT by timlilje
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To: Leto

No . . 35, 29, 36 . . . watch your typing! OK, OK, it’s late and we’re all tired.


32 posted on 09/14/2012 10:01:12 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: 1035rep

Your points are well-taken - and I should have added in my original reply, a really nice job with the original numbers.

Hopefully, the ever-developing fiascos of this regime (although consistently covered for by the MSM) will continue to erode BO’s chances, but short of that, it looks like this election comes down to four (maybe five if it’s really close) things:

1) base turnout (can we get the GOP/donkey ratio close to the 2010 numbers?)

2) the extent of a preference for Romney among the independents (how much should R&R suck up to the squishy moderates)
?
3) vote fraud (the donkeys always play with a deck with more than four aces, the extras being up their sleeves)

4) the nature of this year’s “October surprise” (I expect Obama has all of Romney’s tax returns, and just like Jack Ryan’s divorce records, they’ll magically appear late next month).

and then, if it’s really, really close:

5) how many votes will Virgil Goode pull in Virginia?


33 posted on 09/14/2012 10:01:29 PM PDT by Stosh
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To: Leto

You know, I think it is even worse, because they not only routinely oversample Democrats, but they also oversample women. THAT is more subtle, but I have seen it done.


34 posted on 09/14/2012 10:05:22 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: 1035rep

LOL CNN. Dems haven’t made 50% in party affiliation since probably 1964.


35 posted on 09/14/2012 10:06:14 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
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To: Leto

Since President is in reality a group of 51 elections, there should be a different turnout model applied to each state, especially the battlegrounds. And it could prove difficult to decide on predictive models because each state’s voter turnout can be heavily influenced by down-ballot items, like propositions.


36 posted on 09/14/2012 10:08:20 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: princeofdarkness

Yes it’s ridiculous. Since they know Romney is winning independents by 10 to 14 points they under-sampled them more than 25% to get the number they wanted.


37 posted on 09/14/2012 10:15:35 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Leto

Thanks you Leto. If true this will be as big as the Reagan win over Carter.

Something else reminds me of that election but I can’t quite put my finger on it.


38 posted on 09/14/2012 10:18:34 PM PDT by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: Leto

Well done.

See my tagline.

I don’t think anyone but you has considered the 2010 results and that the anger towards leftists has grown.


39 posted on 09/14/2012 10:29:22 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 election.)
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To: LS

Ping.


40 posted on 09/14/2012 10:33:17 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 election.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom
You stop and think why Romney isn't "manning up" as you put it?

You get tough and down and dirty when your behind - despite the media hype Romney's own team knows he is leading and on the verge of being the next president. We know Romney has no problem throwing punches when he truly feels he is losing, ie the numerous times he had to fend off a hot challenger in the GOP primary. But he has all the people who don't like Obama already on his side, no need to fling red meat around and scare off the mushy few percenters he may need. It's politics, you may not like it but trust me there is calculation to it.

Romney knows what he is doing and is in to win it. He has several states that went Obama in 08 already picked off and is on the verge of sealing a few more. It does not help anyone but Obama for conservatives to keep panicking and trashing him. It's hard to do I know but at some point you have to trust him and his team, throw in your support, and vote.
41 posted on 09/14/2012 10:33:51 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Leto

I think the pollsters are wrong using 2008 percentages for sampling now

but I would worry more about the last week of polling baring a big surprise..which would be trailing and not caught likely...2000 missed a bit of Bush’s DUI final days which almost cost him the enchilada

if the election were to diverge significantly from the aggregate of the final week’s polling it would be the first time since..well ..Dewey

Romney does not excite so I do not think we will attain your 2010 model...and Obamacare is not as fresh

The waxing the Dems would take in 2010 was clearly foretold by the polls..but I think we beat the polls by a couple of points turnout wise

But I do think we will beat them over 2008 Dem-GOP turnout

if 59% of vote is white we win...any less and we better have a low minority turnout of both dead or alive voters there


42 posted on 09/14/2012 10:47:45 PM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: over3Owithabrain

very good post !


43 posted on 09/14/2012 11:04:43 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: 1035rep; MNJohnnie
CNN/ORC poll
50.4 percent Democrats and
45.4 percent Republicans
4.2 percent independents.

I find it unfortunate that too many posters on Free Republic are so quick to look for Democrat poll oversampling that such a sloppy analysis of the CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A) by the Examiner is taken as gospel. Only 4.2% "Independents" in the CNN/ORC Likely Voter sample, really? The published data supports no such conclusion.

                              Demo-      Indep-     Repub-
                    Total     crat       endent     lican     
----- ----- ------ ------   --------    --------   --------
Obama,Biden, lean    52%       97%         40%         2%
Romney,Ryan, lean    46%        3%         54%        96%
Other                 *         *           *          *
Neither               2%        *           4%         2%
No opinion            1%        *           2%         *
Sampling Error    +/-3.5    +/-6.0      +/-6.5     +/-6.5 

The CNN/ORC question 1/1A table reproduced above has an unstated 95% confidence level (most poll do) for the (n~709) sample size of Likely Voters. The CNN/ORC table for the Total Likely Voter response has the margin of error (or confidence interval) of (+/- 3.5). This published sampling error for the Likely Voters is a rounded number as with the sample size of (n=709) the MoE is actually (+/- 3.68). Now that it is known that the CNN/ORC published MoE numbers are rounded, check the Democrat (+/- 6.0) sub-sampling error, this should be a sample size of 267. The Republican and Independent sub-sample error number of (+/-6.5) would both be derived from a sample size of 227. Since these published sample error number are rounded, they only indicate a range of sample sizes, depending on what the amount of rounding that was performed by CNN/ORC. The published sampling error number alone show that the sample contained more Democrats than either Republicans or Independents.

Rounded MoE       (+/- 6.0)
Rounded range   6.24  - 5.75
Sample # range   247  -  290


Rounded MoE       (+/- 6.5)
Rounded range   6.88  - 6.25
Sample # range   203  -  246


Given the above Likely Voter sample data the following analysis follows:

Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:

The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:

Demographics Republican Democrat Independent Poll Numbers
Romney 96% 3% 54% Romney 46%
Obama 2% 97% 40% Obama 52%
Neither/Other 2% 0% 4% Neither/Other 2%
No Opinion: 1% 0% 2% No Opinion: 1%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%


CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A).


The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709

Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.


Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers     Adjusted Numbers
Romney 96.17% 2.51% 53.52% Romney 45.84% Romney   50.60%
Obama 1.61% 97.36% 40.47% Obama 51.53% Obama   46.78%
Neither/Other 1.61% 0.13% 3.95% Not Sure 1.79% Neither/Other   1.79%
No Opinion: 0.61% 0.00% 2.06% Do not know: 0.84% No Opinion:   0.83%
  100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%     100.0%
                 
                 
        Results       New Weighting
        (Weighting)        
    `            
Poll Information     Republican 28.65% Republican     35.00%
CNN     Democrat 39.01% Democrat     35.00%
9/7-9/2012     Independent 32.34% Independent     30.00%
MOE 3.68%                
709 LV       100.0%       100.0%
page #21/48                
                 
                 
                 




Likely Voters 709    
Demographics Republican Democrat Independent
Total Raw Votes 203 277 229
Percentage: 28.65% 39.01% 32.34%


Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [+10.36%] Likely Voter oversampled poll, with Independents comprising around 32.3% of the likely voter sample. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.


dvwjr

44 posted on 09/15/2012 3:10:29 AM PDT by dvwjr
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There have been a lot of good points raised here.

This is responds to a bunch of different posts.

The polls will be more accurate in the last week or so before the election. The pollsters will adjust their voting models so that the ‘result’ will be accurate. This will be spun as dramatic changes which usually don’t occur.

Presidential Elections are about the incumbent. As long as Romney don’t do something stupid, this election will be a referendum on OBAMA. The Obama approval ratings have been in the mid 40’s, his vote total will closely mirror his approval rating.

The dem registration has gone down in the swing states by 800k since 2010, the R registration is down 80k. This doesn’t bode well for the dems in this election.

There is also an enthusiasm gap between R’s and D’s that favors the R’s.

These things point to a turnout model that will IMO be as good or better than 2010. I think people really don’t like Obama.

State Polls tend to be less accurate than national polls, not sure why. However if Romney wins nationally by say %5 in the popular vote there is no way he loses the electoral college.

The campaigns get polls that are far more accurate than anything in the public polls. If you look at the campaigns their behavior tells you a lot about what they are ‘seeing’ in their internal polls.

The Obama campaign is going totally negative, wild charges OTOH Romney is being soft in their critique. IMO this indicates who thinks they are winning and who is desperate.

The media also understands that Obama being behind by double digits with independents means he is toast unless something changes. Note the under sampling of Indies in some polls (along with the under sampling of R’s in almost/all polls), and the lack of mention of Indies in the reporting of these polls.

Do you think that The media would report the results of independents if Obama was UP by double digits???? ;)

dvwjr great job on the CNN poll, like I said if you ‘normalize’ the turnout model the polls are consistent and show Romney with a big lead, that can move to a landslide.

IMO the money advantage for Romney over the last 30 days will lock down these numbers.


45 posted on 09/15/2012 5:50:28 AM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

Excellent post! Thanks!


46 posted on 09/15/2012 6:03:20 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: over3Owithabrain

You are right. I try, and it’s sometimes difficult when the temptation is so great to beg him to double down on his awesome press conference. But regardless you’re right...


47 posted on 09/15/2012 6:20:21 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: Leto

tag for later


48 posted on 09/15/2012 6:21:03 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Leto
IMO this election will not be anything like 2008 in terms of the turnout model.

I agree. The thrill for Obama is gone among some black voters and plenty of college students. The black voters, because that barrier has been broken, and college students, especially recent graduates, because the economy is crap and they haven't been able to find good jobs in their field, or any other, for that matter.

49 posted on 09/15/2012 10:48:49 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: SuziQ
BTW M Flynn at Breitbart does a great job with his poll analysis:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/14/surprise-oversampling-dems-puts-obama-in-lead

Anyone interested in understanding the polls should check him out on a regular basis.

http://i1.cpcache.com/product/690827672/seals_removed_one_threat_rectangle_magnet.jpg

50 posted on 09/15/2012 12:52:58 PM PDT by Leto
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