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Rasmussen: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Romney 48 Obama 46
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/15/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 09/15/2012 7:29:24 AM PDT by nhwingut

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; obama; polls; rasmussen; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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1 posted on 09/15/2012 7:29:30 AM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut

I’m nervous. We lost a point. Could be statistical noise. Maybe not.

The events in the Middle East should have hurt Obama. Doesn’t look like that is happening. Maybe the opposite, the rally ‘round flag phenomenon, is the reality. We will know for sure in a few days. Expect major phony polls supporting the “Is Obama Getting a Boost from the Mideast Crisis” meme.


2 posted on 09/15/2012 7:33:19 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: nhwingut

“One of the proudest things of my three years in office is helping to restore a sense of respect for America around the world, a belief that we are not just defined by the size of our military.” Barack Hussein Obama


3 posted on 09/15/2012 7:35:54 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: nhwingut

The real key is what occurs in the 11 swing states that Rasmussen tracks but is only available via subscription. Those states have 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.


4 posted on 09/15/2012 7:36:34 AM PDT by deport
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To: nhwingut

“If I don’t have this done (economy fixed) in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” Barack Hussein Obama


5 posted on 09/15/2012 7:38:49 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: InterceptPoint

The media has never been more corrupt than this week. The stories out there today (recapping the week) are so over the top they make Pravda look objective.

Imagine if Bush were prez this week when the U.S. credit was downgraded (2nd time), oil hit over $100 barrel, gas prices went over $4, unemployment claims hit 2 month high, Middle East went bat sh!t crazy, and the prez heads off to Vegas fundraising?

Instead it’s all about “Romney’s bad week.” It’s like bizzaro world.


6 posted on 09/15/2012 7:41:06 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: InterceptPoint
Maybe the opposite, the rally ‘round flag phenomenon, is the reality.

Not sure why anyone would have expected otherwise. The rally 'round the flag phenomenon is the norm. Americans rallied around Jimmy Carter for the longest time during the hostage crisis. This stuff is good for Obama where the election is concerned. Sure, it's terrible in the long run, but Obama is only worried about getting elected right now.

7 posted on 09/15/2012 7:47:44 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: nhwingut

I’d bet they’re being forced to show R in the lead, though not nearly as much as reality, given that there are still no internals listed for these numbers.


8 posted on 09/15/2012 7:55:43 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: nhwingut

This shows the effectiveness of the media undermining Romney with such a vengeance. They have to work so hard at it now, their slip is showing. Plus, it’s having less and less effect. The events themselves are likely to play out in a way that harms Obama.


9 posted on 09/15/2012 7:57:12 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: InterceptPoint
"I’m nervous. We lost a point. Could be statistical noise. Maybe not. The events in the Middle East should have hurt Obama. Doesn’t look like that is happening. Maybe the opposite, the rally ‘round flag phenomenon, is the reality. We will know for sure in a few days. Expect major phony polls supporting the “Is Obama Getting a Boost from the Mideast Crisis” meme."

Oh great the "concern trolls" are gearing up for another weekend.
10 posted on 09/15/2012 8:00:15 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Longbow1969
Not sure why anyone would have expected otherwise.

Well supporters of the rally 'round the flag" theory have been pretty scarce around here the past few days. The semi-official FR position has been that the Mid-East crisis is downer for Obama.

With the MSM doing a full court press on the issue I'm afraid you are right. Will the support hold up through 3 debates and a ton of Romney ads? Maybe. Maybe not.

As hard as it is to believe, the happenings this week may well be the Jihadists knowing contribution to the Obama re-election campaign. I find it very hard to believe they want to see Romney in the White House. So I believe they are thinking that their actions will help keep Obama in that spot.

I think Romney has to give it a little time, get his facts right about what looks like the obvious White House negligence on Embassy security and then hit Obama with some big time ads in the battleground states. That should help level the playing field.

11 posted on 09/15/2012 8:02:57 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: nhwingut

These pols prove if you only sample Black Democrats then Obama pulls ahead.


12 posted on 09/15/2012 8:05:20 AM PDT by ully2
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To: VanDeKoik
Oh great the "concern trolls" are gearing up for another weekend.

Give me a break.

There has been a clear expectation here that Obama will be hurt by the Mid-East crisis. In the long run he probably will be but in the short run, like the next 60 days or so, maybe not.

Don't kid yourself. This is a big deal and it can affect the outcome of the election. Movement in the polls we trust over the next few days will give us a good indication of what that affect will be.

13 posted on 09/15/2012 8:06:30 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: InterceptPoint

I can’t imagine a single person that was even leaning Romney would suddenly rally to Obama as a result of the middle east blowing up. That make absolutely no sense at all.


14 posted on 09/15/2012 8:09:39 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: InterceptPoint

“The events in the Middle East should have hurt Obama. Doesn’t look like that is happening.”

The horrible economic news out in just the last three days should have people out in the streets screaming for Obama’s rewsignation. But the Middle East News has pushed all of that to the side.

NBC Evening did not even mention that Egan-Jones had Downgraded America’s Credit last might. NOT AT ALL...

This HUGE, and affects every single American, but NBC Did not mention it.

Romney WINS on the Economy, but only if the sheeple know about it.


15 posted on 09/15/2012 8:14:40 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: InterceptPoint
Well supporters of the rally 'round the flag" theory have been pretty scarce around here the past few days. The semi-official FR position has been that the Mid-East crisis is downer for Obama.

With the economy, like the Middle East, in shambles, I think it plays right into the 'Obama is incompetent' meme.

Rally 'round the flag works better when the president can point to successes elsewhere. His entire presidency is an utter failure, domestically ad internationally.
16 posted on 09/15/2012 8:15:08 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: InterceptPoint
Well supporters of the rally 'round the flag" theory have been pretty scarce around here the past few days. The semi-official FR position has been that the Mid-East crisis is downer for Obama.

I think the history is clear about how these things play out in the short term. People almost always rally around the flag and their leaders.

With the MSM doing a full court press on the issue I'm afraid you are right. Will the support hold up through 3 debates and a ton of Romney ads? Maybe. Maybe not.

I think Romney has a great way to attack Obama here, but I find the R/R campaign to be a miserable bunch of mush so far - neither memorable or inspiring. The "in" is simply "weren't they supposed to love us if Obama was elected, what happened?" Remember all that silliness the O campaign and media fed us in 2008? The Muslim world supposedly hated Bush and would love us if we only elected Obama. Well? What happened. It's a way to attack Hussein and tweak the media.

I think Romney has to give it a little time, get his facts right about what looks like the obvious White House negligence on Embassy security and then hit Obama with some big time ads in the battleground states. That should help level the playing field.

On this particular issue I think Romney has been okay so far. Look, the one thing Obama is really, really good at is campaigning. Sure, they get a ton of help from the mainstream media - but there is no doubt Obama is a top notch campaigner. Obummer is a great orator, comes off as the happy warrior (concealing his radicalism with a friendly smile), and is very likable. People want to like him. That's a huge advantage. At this point, I am just not sure if there are any more opportunities to change the dynamics of this race. I guess the debates are the last real chance.

17 posted on 09/15/2012 8:18:12 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: nhwingut
These daily tracking polls are really a waste of time. The vast majority of people who are going to vote on November 6th have made up their minds. Even the vast majority of those declaring themselves "undecided" or "prefer another candidate" have made up their minds on who to vote for in November - they just are not ready to reveal their decision to a pollster for whatever reason.

So the variance in these polls is akin to flipping a coin 1000 times every day. Sometimes you are going to get heads more often then tails. Other times you are going to come up tails more often. This is known in the statistics world as "noise" - that is to say, each particular set of data is not precise. That's why Obama comes up 46% on some days and 43% on other days. The truth is somewhere in the middle. On any given day, the luck of the draw may show Romney or Obama up or down.

My point is, there is not a significant amount of people out there who are bouncing back and forth between Obama or Romney based on the news cycle. The "rally around the flag" concept is nonsense. Obama can bomb Iran tomorrow and nobody committed to vote Obama out of office is going to suddenly support him for re-election - and vice-versa with respect to Romney. Same with the "job reports". The next job report could show a jump to 10% unemployment and Obama's supporters will still stick with him. It is laughable when the mainstream media point to a "favorable" jobs report as a reason for an Obama bump.

The only thing to take away from this flood of mostly useless polls (the only polls worth our time are state polls of likely voters and weighted according to state demographics) is the fact that they show a consistent 5-8% of voters who are either undecided or prefer another candidate.

Folks, those represent Romney votes. Let's make that perfectly clear. The Obama-loving mainstream media will use every trick in the book to show a "horse race" when in fact, the race is pretty much over and is Romney's to lose. The trick they are using right now to keep the race close is with these undecided voters. And just forget about those who "prefer another candidate." Who? We dont' have a Ross Perot as a third party choice this time. The fringe candidates out there are not even going to get 1% of the vote. So more than 99% of the voters out there are going to choose between Obama and Romney.

So why so many undecideds? This is because a good number of voters who plan to support Romney do not feel comfortable making their views known. Could be they are afraid of being considered racist or it just could be that, understanding the intolerance of the other side, they would rather just not go on the record as opposing the current administration. Like in Nazi Germany, there are a lot of people who are just afraid to speak out against the government and wish to keep their political views to themselves. But on November 6th, they will send a message with their votes.

Bottom line is you just cannot have a civil conversation about politics with your neighbors or co-workers anymore. I actually have neighbors that refuse to talk to me or associate with me because I put Republican lawn signs in my yard. I don't dare bring up politics in the workplace either. Years ago, I remember having discussions with co-workers all the time on politics. These days, it can be a career-ender so I keep my mouth shut.

Obama is consistently 42-47% in these polls. He's not going to get a significant amount of those calling themselves undecided. He's going to lose. If he was going to win, he'd be 50% or above by now.

18 posted on 09/15/2012 8:21:16 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: InterceptPoint

The variability in these polls is too much to allow any substantive consideration of 1 or 2 point swings. The variability is so much that it is often outside the MOE. I personally don’t believe voters change their minds from day to day as much as these highly volatile polls suggest. It’s much more likely that the variability in how the polls are conducted (the sampling mix, who is called, what days polling occurred during, how the questions were asked, etc.) accounts for a significant amount of the variability.

One statistic I personally have not seen reported is the number of people called vs. the number of people who agreed to participate.


19 posted on 09/15/2012 8:23:04 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: SamAdams76
But on November 6th, they will send a message with their votes.

Great post! Exactly how I feel. My wife is a nervous nellie (How can Obama even be competitive?"). But I keep telling her, once that curtain closes and the echoes of "you are a racist" go silent, it's over. Romney will win 52-47.
20 posted on 09/15/2012 8:27:58 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

I think it matters a lot who thinks they won the day in the news and in the short term attention spans who feels good.

Basically, the people that take the time to answer the robo calls might be based more on who’s feeling good at the time. Right after the DNC, we saw a big bump in O’s numbers and I think it was because they were all hyped up. I think very few are swayed day to day in this hyper partisan world.

Now with the relentless assault on Romney, we might see more Liberals willing to answer the phone and we might see any Romney lead erode. We shall see.

Two things will matter most in this election. Who is motivated. Who shows up. I don’t see the left very motivated at the base community “people” level. The allure of hope and change” isn’t driving this election.


21 posted on 09/15/2012 8:29:09 AM PDT by commonguymd (The enemy within is our MSM. War starts there imo. twitter @commonguymd)
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To: Longbow1969

“I find the R/R campaign to be a miserable bunch of mush so far - neither memorable or inspiring.”

If you listen to what Romney and Ryan are actually saying, they are being quite strong.

However, the media SPIN is completely out of control.


22 posted on 09/15/2012 8:29:51 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

The bounce is still over. Excellent.


23 posted on 09/15/2012 8:29:57 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

Ras shows significant movement toward the D in the Ohio Senate race. Anybody have any idea what is happening in that race?


24 posted on 09/15/2012 8:30:45 AM PDT by p. henry
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To: Longbow1969

Uhhhh, you do realize this thread is about a poll Romney is WINNING. So how does your Obama is great Romney stinks narrative apply here? Obama the great orator campaigner is polling 7 points lower than he got in 08 by the most accurate pollster out there. He is shedding states he won in 08. So your doom and gloom which you copy and paste on every poll thread just looks silly here.


25 posted on 09/15/2012 8:33:23 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: VanDeKoik
"Oh great the "concern trolls" are gearing up for another weekend."

Deeply concerned! There are hands be wrung -- let the bedwetting commence!

26 posted on 09/15/2012 8:33:58 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NE1, IA = 272EV)
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To: nhwingut

The media has never been more corrupt than this week. The stories out there today (recapping the week) are so over the top they make Pravda look objective.
***********
Absolutely correct. The corrupt MSM has no credibility whatsoever. It is nothing more than a propaganda machine for the Dems.


27 posted on 09/15/2012 8:34:30 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: over3Owithabrain; Admin Moderator

If you go back and look at his posts over the past year or more it’s obvious that you are dealing with an Obama supporter. I’m surprised that the Admin Moderator has not zotted his ass by now.


28 posted on 09/15/2012 8:37:49 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Starboard

I’m somewhat amazed by the apparent large number of freepers who seem to watch that claptrap and then fall for it.

I just don’t think, based on ratings, even that many of the general public pays much attention to the msm anymore.

From what they do pick up, what would they gather about how things are going in the nation and the world?

Everywhere appears to be a clusterbang of immense proportions at the moment. I expect the Romney landslide to reflect that.


29 posted on 09/15/2012 8:39:30 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: nhwingut

the ‘Obama is incompetent’ meme
*********
Many in this country don’t care about his incompetence or the long term damage he is doing. The only things that will cause them to re-evaluate their support for him are economic pain (e.g., $4-5 gas and rising prices) and fear that America is losing its grip in the world. Same scenario with Jimmuh Carter. Eventually the pain and fear took their toll on him. We’re headed in that same direction.


30 posted on 09/15/2012 8:40:05 AM PDT by Starboard
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Comment #31 Removed by Moderator

To: nhwingut

Ras is gonna get a call from the AX man


32 posted on 09/15/2012 8:42:03 AM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does....)
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To: michellewsc2

You do realize you just posted all that on a thread wherein the most historically accurate poll shows Romney leading?


33 posted on 09/15/2012 8:43:22 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: tcrlaf

FRiend how could anyone in America not “know” about “it”? I mean heavens to Betsy even if anyone personally isn’t suffering to any great degree somebody in their family or friends are. I praise the Lord for not being personally affected but dear Jesus I sure do know so many that are truly suffering hugely


34 posted on 09/15/2012 8:43:30 AM PDT by SaintDismas
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To: Longbow1969
I think Romney has a great way to attack Obama here, but I find the R/R campaign to be a miserable bunch of mush so far - neither memorable or inspiring.

That's really a function of the media refusing to cover their campaign rallies in much detail. Ryan gave an inspiring speech in Ohio yesterday but other than a clip played on the Hannity show, I didn't see it mentioned anywhere else (including even Free Republic).

Not sure how the Romney campaign can overcome the media bias other than blasting the airwaves with ads. But as much money as they have raised, it gets consumed very quickly in a national campaign so they must target their ads carefully in states where they are likely to have the most impact.

Despite the national media being basically surrogates for the Obama campaign, Romney/Ryan are on the way to victory and that is a function of just how awful of a president Obama has been. Even the lapdog media won't be enough to save him.

Their advert

35 posted on 09/15/2012 8:44:30 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: michellewsc2
I’m beginning to think Romney isn’t going to be able to pull off this election. It’s starting to look a lot like Dole/Kemp 1996

Thanks for signing up 5 days ago to tell us Romney is going to lose, on a thread which shows Romney up by 2 points.

LOL!
36 posted on 09/15/2012 8:49:27 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: InterceptPoint

There is no mention of BHO’s negligence for ignoring the warnings and no blame in supporting the overthrows in Egypt etc. They just ignore it.


37 posted on 09/15/2012 8:50:19 AM PDT by STJPII
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To: michellewsc2; All
Hey NOOB - don't ya think ya aughta wait a few weeks before you try posting such stuff ----

CALLING ALL VIKING KITTIES!


38 posted on 09/15/2012 8:56:08 AM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does....)
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To: michellewsc2

Romney’s strength lies in the negative not the positive. In a terrible economy like this one with an incumbent seeking election, the ONLY issue should the incumbent screwed it up and I am not him. No one is going to the polls to vote for Romney. They are going there to vote for or against Obama referendum style.So Romney may as well cut to the chase now and start spending that war chest and deluge the airwaves with negative ads drowning out the MSM and the spin coming from the opposition that this is a choice election.It is not and negative ads on his mishandling of the economy are the only way of underscoring that point.


39 posted on 09/15/2012 8:59:19 AM PDT by chuckee (like)
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To: SaintDismas

We at FR are truly the informed types, but ask around.

We forget that not everyone knows everything we do, nor do many even care. They just roll along with whatever the Magic Glowing Box in the living room is telling them.


40 posted on 09/15/2012 9:03:39 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: michellewsc2; All

michellewsc2 JUST singed up for FR this week! so far, seems his/her raison d’etra is to find posts on the polls and knock Romney = been busy for a NOOB, a “concern troll”?

Where sre the Viking Kitties???

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:michellewsc2/index?brevity=full;tab=comments


41 posted on 09/15/2012 9:07:17 AM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does....)
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To: nhwingut

Everyone stay strong! Good news:

1. The Marxist is sub-50% and holding steady.
2. The “bounce” is history.
3. Economic news is bad and very likely to stay that way.
4. The Middle East conflagration is, at best, a wash for the Marxist. Dead ambassadors, burning embassies, and rioting Arabs can never be spun as positive to the average American.
5. Gas prices are on an escalator up.

I’ll take a 52-48 win and squeeking out an electoral college edge. Obama is a tougher-than-average, ineffective, Dumbocrat president simply because he is black and perceived as “cool”. Many of the white soccer moms always coveted his type, and voting for them makes them feel less racist. This will be tough slog and we have to stay positive to keep our side enthusiastic.


42 posted on 09/15/2012 9:33:05 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: nhwingut

Live by the polls DIE by the polls! I’m telling you the pollsters are NOT gauging or formulating the amount of ANGER by regular folk! Polls aren’t registering the RED HOT ANGER folks have towards this black turd, they aren’t even aware those folks are taking with them two or three people to the polls and are willing to walk through exploding dynamite to vote. The silent majority aren’t answering their phones, I’m one of them, I’m telling you OmuslimO and his pals WON’T KNOW WHAT THE HELL HIT THEM on Nov!!! TAKE HEART the Patriotic Americans WILL NOT STAY HOME come voting day.....Walker’s victory is an EXAMPLE of turnout, reason why the left communist PIGS are shaking in their loafers!!


43 posted on 09/15/2012 9:40:00 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: nhwingut
1. Rasmussen's polling numbers include Friday; while this is the end of the DNC convention "bounce" it's also the start of the weekend conservative "dip". Wait and look at what the polls are showing next Thursday and Friday.

2. Reagan won with 50.7% of the popular vote in 1980. I'd settle for that.

44 posted on 09/15/2012 9:51:02 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: nhwingut

The most important thing is that Obama’s post-Convention bounce did not last. He’s been under 50% for most of the last 3 years. What’s going to happen in the next 6 weeks to change that?

Forget about the head to head match up with Romney. If you look at the polls over the last 3 years, there is a disconnect between Obama’s low approval ratings on the issues, and his decent personal approval ratings. This is a result of the American people suffering while the MSM buries every last piece of bad news and doesn’t lay a glove on Obama.

On election day, the American people will no longer be choosing between “how do like Obama’s policies?” and “how do you like Obama as a person?”. Instead, they’ll be choosing if they want to spend another 4 years at the mercy of Obama’s policies.


45 posted on 09/15/2012 9:54:53 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: The Fop

Bounce is fading in gallup also. Obama down to four point lead from eight. Obama 49 Romney 45. Approval rating dropping too.


46 posted on 09/15/2012 10:12:54 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: InterceptPoint

Can someone answer me this ?: WHY am I constantly bombarded by ads featuring Clinton and Obama...and do not see ONE Romney ad? I’m in Texas and watching ESPN. I see NOTHING nationally with a Romney ad. What are these guys thinking? How are they spending this money advantage? I don’t get it.


47 posted on 09/15/2012 10:23:44 AM PDT by NELSON111
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To: michellewsc2
"All Romney seems to do is play defense against the MSM instead of going on offense and not caring what MSM will do or say."

A strategy only Reagen understood

48 posted on 09/15/2012 10:30:59 AM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: nhwingut

If the media actually reported the news instead of kissing Obama’s ass Obama would be down 20 points right now. People, even though they don’t say they listen to what the media says, they still do. Many are sheep, its unfortunate but its true. The media will do ANYTHING to protect Obama, ANYTHING, even criminal, to protect their prophet


49 posted on 09/15/2012 10:31:42 AM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

50 posted on 09/15/2012 10:51:07 AM PDT by Do Not Make Fun Of His Ears (John Roberts did more to endanger the lives of Americans than all 9/11 hijackers combined.)
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