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ARG Ohio Poll: 0 48%, R 47% (sample of 42% Dims, 32% GOP)
ARG ^

Posted on 09/15/2012 9:17:57 AM PDT by Arthurio

Ohio

Interview dates: September 10-12, 2012

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

Ohio   Obama Romney Other Undecided Likely voters 48% 47% 1% 4%

Democrats (42%) 90% 7% - 3%

Republicans (32%) 2% 95% - 3%

Independents (26%) 37% 53% 5% 5%

Men (49%) 43% 51% 2% 4% Women (51%) 53% 43% 1% 3% 18 to 49 (53%) 50% 44% 1% 5% 50 and older (47%) 46% 51% 2% 2% White (84%) 42% 54% 1% 3% African American (12%) 90% 3% - 7%  

(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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1 posted on 09/15/2012 9:18:01 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Duhhhh!!!


2 posted on 09/15/2012 9:20:09 AM PDT by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
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To: Arthurio

Hahahaah! And the dims in the MSM say this campaign is over and we’ve lost.... yeah... right


3 posted on 09/15/2012 9:20:41 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Arthurio; All

Anybody know what is the breakdown in OH by registered voters?


4 posted on 09/15/2012 9:21:54 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: Viennacon

Last week should/could prove to be fatal for Obie....and not so good for Old Media, either.


5 posted on 09/15/2012 9:22:11 AM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: Arthurio

Could it be that all these polls are weighted toward the democrats on accident?

LOL!!!


6 posted on 09/15/2012 9:22:11 AM PDT by ryan71
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To: lasereye

Not sure but in 2008 turnout was +8 D. No chance they exceed that here in 2012. At most will be +2 or 3. If romney is tied in a +10 D model thats awesome news.


7 posted on 09/15/2012 9:25:05 AM PDT by joltman1974
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To: Arthurio

Why do the polls always oversample dems?


8 posted on 09/15/2012 9:25:25 AM PDT by Fester Chugabrew (oboy)
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To: Arthurio; All

wow- another poll where Romney has double digit advantage from independents...terrific...


9 posted on 09/15/2012 9:27:00 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Arthurio
Ohio Obama Romney Other Undecided Likely voters 48% 47% 1% 4%

Democrats (42%) 90% 7% - 3%

Republicans (32%) 2% 95% - 3%

Independents (26%) 37% 53% 5% 5% $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Besides the way-oversampled Dhim's, I think the money line here is the Independents. Sixteen point spread. Noice !!

10 posted on 09/15/2012 9:27:17 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Arthurio

Are the results shown with ‘weighting factors’ applied or is this just raw data?


11 posted on 09/15/2012 9:27:29 AM PDT by deport
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To: Arthurio

2008 turnout model, plus...

I wonder how far Obama is behind in Ohio if they use the 2012 Wisconsin model, instead?


12 posted on 09/15/2012 9:27:47 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: lasereye
Polls are using the 2008 models. Things have moved drastically to Rs since 2008 - hence 2010 blowout.

Here's how Gallup has the states heading into 2012... Notice Ohio at D+ 1.3 (not +10).


13 posted on 09/15/2012 9:28:25 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: lasereye; All

i know this, in 2008 when they were amped to voted for the POS in the WH there was a spread of about 8% rats over Republicans...


14 posted on 09/15/2012 9:28:32 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Arthurio
Can't vouch for how accurate this link is, it's Wikipedia after all. However, the chart linked states political party strength in each state and shows Republicans at 37% and Democrats at 36% in the state of Ohio.

So if accurate, this poll oversamples Democrats by 11 percentage points.

15 posted on 09/15/2012 9:29:43 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Arthurio

what were party percentages in 2010 and 2008

I’d say this election will be in between but closer to 2010

even with Brylcreem


16 posted on 09/15/2012 9:29:48 AM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: Fester Chugabrew

> Why do the polls always oversample dems?

Well, it’s not really oversampling.

When you count illegals, dead people, imprisoned felons, and those who vote in more than one city and state, there really are more DemonRAT voters than Republicans.


17 posted on 09/15/2012 9:30:20 AM PDT by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
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To: Arthurio

Well, darn! I was getting it into my head that the only polls I could trust were Rasmussen and ARG. I guess no ARG anymore.


18 posted on 09/15/2012 9:31:21 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Arthurio

OIHO


19 posted on 09/15/2012 9:33:03 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Arthurio

Another poll 10% more Dems survey.

These guys must really not want to get contracts next year.

And Democrat DU’ers trolling FR today, you ought to be the ones “worried” if it takes that many more Dems to get you a ones point advantage.


20 posted on 09/15/2012 9:33:47 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Arthurio

Another poll 10% more Dems survey.

These guys must really not want to get contracts next year.

And Democrat DU’ers trolling FR today, you ought to be the ones “worried” if it takes that many more Dems to get you a ones point advantage.


21 posted on 09/15/2012 9:34:26 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Arthurio; LS; MNJohnnie; xzins; TonyInOhio

Romney up by 16 among Indies; Romney will take Ohio


22 posted on 09/15/2012 9:35:12 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Arthurio
Keep this sheet handy when reading the swing state polls...If they are not sampling close to this then it's bogus.


23 posted on 09/15/2012 9:35:50 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Arthurio
This Ohioan is about tapped out to conservative (Josh Mandel) candidates. Maybe next payday, somethings in the works but for now-no mas, baby, no mas. If any of you guys can help out http://joshmandel.com/contribute2/?creative=
24 posted on 09/15/2012 9:40:08 AM PDT by nomad
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To: ryan71
if you pre-selected the people to interview you could weight the sample. This situation is different. The people were sampled randomly and they self identified what their party preference/affiliation was.

That's not weighting.

For the most part Ohio has almost always had more self-identified Democrats than Republicans since FDR.

25 posted on 09/15/2012 9:51:12 AM PDT by muawiyah
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mark


26 posted on 09/15/2012 9:52:33 AM PDT by eureka! (Bless Our Troops. D*mn the Left.)
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To: Fester Chugabrew
Why?

The answer is they don't. There are more folks in the US who self identify as Democrats than there are those who self identify as Republicans. That's why a random sample will almost always find more Democrats than Republicans.

27 posted on 09/15/2012 9:53:11 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: tcrlaf

Please explain for us how you do a random sample and then apply a 2008 turnout model ~


28 posted on 09/15/2012 9:54:36 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Arthurio

I just received a tweet from Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted. One county in Ohio is already over 10,000 absentee ballot requests and it is only September 15th.


29 posted on 09/15/2012 9:56:39 AM PDT by jokemoke
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To: muawiyah

Many pollsters weight their samples based on party, age, sex, race, etc. others do not. If a pollster is obtaining samples that are not representative of the population at large, the results become questionable. Some argue that since party affiliation is not set in stone (like race or sex is), it should not be weighted


30 posted on 09/15/2012 10:07:41 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Berlin_Freeper

Anybody remember where Kasich was relative to Strickland at this point in 2010? My recollection is that Strickland was leading...

This poll is really good news. The Romney Super Pacs need to expand the field to MI and then PA, move the needle, and then force Obama to react.

Obama doesn’t have the $$$ to keep up — DRAIN HIM DRY NOW.


31 posted on 09/15/2012 10:14:08 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Arthurio

“ARG Ohio Poll: 0 48%, R 47%”

Looking better for Romney there than in past weeks, but still looks to be a VERY tough climb for him to win. Doable, but difficult.

48-47% leaves 5% “undecided”. Perhaps a small percentage of the undecideds will vote for other candidates, or not vote at all. So let’s figure that about 4.5-4.8% of the undecideds will contribute to the final tally.

Romney needs 3+% to slip over Obama. Can he get it?
He will need the undecideds to break roughly 2-to-1 in his direction.

Then again, perhaps the events in the Middle East, coupled with a good performance in the debates by Romney, will help him along.


32 posted on 09/15/2012 10:14:31 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Arthurio
Alas, what is the methodology ~ can you describe it in detail. If you do a random sample of 1000 and you get an expected number of self-identifications, as long as you don't have a long list of sample cells (age, weight, sexual preference, handicapped, blind, etc.) ~ if it was random, and you've controlled for all externalities so that you got as random a sample as you can get, then you are not weighting anything.

The more detailed samplings that give you a normal distribution of characteristics of the population in general usually involve THOUSANDS of samples ~ else you'll have sample cells out there that don't have enough responses to fit within the expected confidence interval.

We really should always expect a national sample to report back more Democrats than Republicans.

33 posted on 09/15/2012 10:18:54 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: jokemoke

Which county and is Husted a Republican?


34 posted on 09/15/2012 10:20:03 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: nhwingut; All
I plugged in you 1.3% advantage to Dems, left everything the same and multiplied out the percentages. Now granted that leaves some 8.7% unaccounted for, and you would have a 47% Romney vs. a 31.2% Obama victory. Tell me where my math is wrong...

That is a blowout folks.....

35 posted on 09/15/2012 10:24:08 AM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: muawiyah

“There are more folks in the US who self identify as Democrats than there are those who self identify as Republicans”

***************FALSE***************


36 posted on 09/15/2012 10:24:15 AM PDT by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: jokemoke

What do you mean? Is this good or bad for R&R? Right now I’m so skeptical of anything crossing the wires. Especially polls !


37 posted on 09/15/2012 10:24:38 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: taildragger; All

Correction one to many zeros before the decimal, that is 47% Romney to 40.2% Obama, Still a blowout IMHO...


38 posted on 09/15/2012 10:28:36 AM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: Arthurio

Here is the “2012 Polling Algorithm”:

Pick the winner (Obama of course)
Pick the margin (a minimum of +1)
Run the poll and get the results
Adjust the D/R/I model to get the desired results
Publish the poll
LOL while watching the media celebrate Obama’s anticipated victory


39 posted on 09/15/2012 10:29:42 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: Fester Chugabrew

Otherwise they wouldnt like the results


40 posted on 09/15/2012 10:36:59 AM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: Arthurio

Got an email from Romney OH campaign saying the WSJ/Gallup was badly off using 08 samples, and that right not it is tied. I suspect that this time GOP turnout will make the difference, but we thought that in 08. This time, I doubt tha ANY Republicans will be voting for Zero.


41 posted on 09/15/2012 10:44:40 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: nhwingut

bttt


42 posted on 09/15/2012 10:56:40 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: muawiyah

It is a standard technique in the social, behavioral and biological sciences called “stratified random sampling”: if you know a population is composed of several radically different sub-populations and you know (or think you know) the proportion falling into each, one gets better statistical models of the population as a whole by taking a random sample from each sub-population in proportion to their size (or not, but scale to weight the results according to the actual or surmised proportions).

The problem here is that the population you really want — folks who actually turn up to vote in November — doesn’t actually exist yet, so the proportions for the stratification *have to be* surmised. For realistic assessment of the likely outcome, as opposed to generating pro-Obama propaganda, using the proportions from 2008 is sheer folly. Averaging 2008 and 2010, or taking 2008 turn-out and shift it by the shift in voter-registration as a basis for the stratification would make much better sense.


43 posted on 09/15/2012 11:11:44 AM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: Arthurio

Freepers, this is a conspiracy! The lame-stream has been putting out poll after poll after poll using 2008 voting percentages for the parties. Dims are being severely OVER-SAMPLED in these polls. Turnout is going to be closer to 2010 levels with Republicans even more fired up than they were then.

So WHY is the lame-stream doing this even though every poll exposes their corruptness when you click on the internals?

Answer: If they put enough polls out there, then we will look like the wackos if we claim there is a conspiracy. Repeat the lie that Zero is leading the polls enough times, and the uninformed will believe it.

Already I am seeing comments from Dims saying “ALL these polls can’t be wrong. You republicans just can’t see reality.”

This is what the lame-streams want to happen!

How do we fight it? Get onto EVERY site possible and EXPOSE every crap poll by showing what the party breakdown is.

PROOF THAT THESE ARE CRAP POLLS: Remember the Wisconsin Recall election? At 5pm on election day all the media outlets were quoting an exit poll that said the result was TOO CLOSE TO CALL. That exit poll over-sampled Dims JUST LIKE the polls that give Zero a lead over Romney. Do we remember the Wisconsin Recall result? Walker won 53-47.

Freepers, it is up to US to keep reminding people of how these crap polls were WRONG in Wisconsin and they will be WRONG for Zero. The lame-stream wants the uneducated to FORGET about the Wisconsin result and to IGNORE the over-sampling of Dims in these presidential polls.

DON’T LET THEM GET AWAY WITH IT! GET BUSY LEAVING COMMENTS!


44 posted on 09/15/2012 11:49:23 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: RoseofTexas

It is great news for Romney-Ryan. Early voters are almost always Republican voters and they are highly motivated this year to vote.


45 posted on 09/15/2012 11:51:54 AM PDT by jokemoke
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To: wardaddy

Based on the breakdown of 42% Democratic/32% GOP/26% Indie (GOP -10) you end up with the following based upon historical turnout in Ohio according to CNN/Wiki over the past three election cycles:

2010: 37 (GOP), 36 (DEM), 27 (IND/OTHER) (GOP +1)
2008: 31 (GOP), 39 (DEM), 30 (IND/OTHER) (GOP -8)
2004: 40 (GOP), 35 (DEM), 25 (IND/OTHER) (GOP +5)

If you re-weight this poll just based strictly on party affiliation you get the following results based on prior races:

POLL: 47.12% Romney, 48.06% Obama

compared to:

2010: 51.98% Romney, 43.13% Obama
2008: 48.08% Romney, 46.82% Obama
2004: 53.70% Romney, 41.55% Obama

If you re-weight by party ID and apply an estimate that the “Other” vote will split 50/50 (taking from each candidate equally) and that Undecideds break 60/40 to Romney you get these results based on historical turnout:

2010: 54.09% Romney, 44.54% Obama
2008: 50.19% Romney, 48.23% Obama
2004: 55.81% Romney, 42.96% Obama


46 posted on 09/15/2012 11:54:27 AM PDT by lowteksh
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To: mwl8787

Husted is a Republican and he did not say which county. However, early voters are almost always Republican voters and they are high motivated to vote.


47 posted on 09/15/2012 11:54:33 AM PDT by jokemoke
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To: lowteksh

Does someone have a link to the party ID of this poll? I can’t find it at the link - http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html.

If it is indeed a DEM +10 poll this, like the other polls recently shows a lead even using the 2008 turnout results.


48 posted on 09/15/2012 11:59:14 AM PDT by lowteksh
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To: lowteksh

Nevermind - I see it now — sorry, just want to make sure that when I run these numbers I’m giving accurate info.


49 posted on 09/15/2012 12:00:56 PM PDT by lowteksh
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To: Arthurio
The more of these polls for Obama the better. The democrats are making the mistake of deluding their voters int the fact that Obama is a shoe-in, thereby giving them reason to be complacent and just stay home election day.
50 posted on 09/15/2012 2:44:02 PM PDT by maxwellsmart_agent
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