Posted on 09/15/2012 9:17:57 AM PDT by Arthurio
Ohio
Interview dates: September 10-12, 2012
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time
Question wording and responses:
If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?
Ohio Obama Romney Other Undecided Likely voters 48% 47% 1% 4%
Democrats (42%) 90% 7% - 3%
Republicans (32%) 2% 95% - 3%
Independents (26%) 37% 53% 5% 5%
Men (49%) 43% 51% 2% 4% Women (51%) 53% 43% 1% 3% 18 to 49 (53%) 50% 44% 1% 5% 50 and older (47%) 46% 51% 2% 2% White (84%) 42% 54% 1% 3% African American (12%) 90% 3% - 7%
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Another poll 10% more Dems survey.
These guys must really not want to get contracts next year.
And Democrat DU’ers trolling FR today, you ought to be the ones “worried” if it takes that many more Dems to get you a ones point advantage.
Romney up by 16 among Indies; Romney will take Ohio
That's not weighting.
For the most part Ohio has almost always had more self-identified Democrats than Republicans since FDR.
mark
The answer is they don't. There are more folks in the US who self identify as Democrats than there are those who self identify as Republicans. That's why a random sample will almost always find more Democrats than Republicans.
Please explain for us how you do a random sample and then apply a 2008 turnout model ~
I just received a tweet from Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted. One county in Ohio is already over 10,000 absentee ballot requests and it is only September 15th.
Many pollsters weight their samples based on party, age, sex, race, etc. others do not. If a pollster is obtaining samples that are not representative of the population at large, the results become questionable. Some argue that since party affiliation is not set in stone (like race or sex is), it should not be weighted
Anybody remember where Kasich was relative to Strickland at this point in 2010? My recollection is that Strickland was leading...
This poll is really good news. The Romney Super Pacs need to expand the field to MI and then PA, move the needle, and then force Obama to react.
Obama doesn’t have the $$$ to keep up — DRAIN HIM DRY NOW.
“ARG Ohio Poll: 0 48%, R 47%”
Looking better for Romney there than in past weeks, but still looks to be a VERY tough climb for him to win. Doable, but difficult.
48-47% leaves 5% “undecided”. Perhaps a small percentage of the undecideds will vote for other candidates, or not vote at all. So let’s figure that about 4.5-4.8% of the undecideds will contribute to the final tally.
Romney needs 3+% to slip over Obama. Can he get it?
He will need the undecideds to break roughly 2-to-1 in his direction.
Then again, perhaps the events in the Middle East, coupled with a good performance in the debates by Romney, will help him along.
The more detailed samplings that give you a normal distribution of characteristics of the population in general usually involve THOUSANDS of samples ~ else you'll have sample cells out there that don't have enough responses to fit within the expected confidence interval.
We really should always expect a national sample to report back more Democrats than Republicans.
Which county and is Husted a Republican?
That is a blowout folks.....
“There are more folks in the US who self identify as Democrats than there are those who self identify as Republicans”
***************FALSE***************
What do you mean? Is this good or bad for R&R? Right now I’m so skeptical of anything crossing the wires. Especially polls !
Correction one to many zeros before the decimal, that is 47% Romney to 40.2% Obama, Still a blowout IMHO...
Here is the “2012 Polling Algorithm”:
Pick the winner (Obama of course)
Pick the margin (a minimum of +1)
Run the poll and get the results
Adjust the D/R/I model to get the desired results
Publish the poll
LOL while watching the media celebrate Obama’s anticipated victory
Otherwise they wouldnt like the results
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